货币政策宽松预期受限，市场担忧政府债供给放量，山东债单日供给近 千亿，引发市场对筹码结构不稳固的担忧，空头力量未完全消退。 2026 年初债市预计震荡，十年国债利率波动区间 1.75%-1.85%，30 年国债利率约 2.3%。社融增速预计小幅上升 0.1%，政府债净融资预计 超万亿，银行杠杆票息策略空间有限。 通胀方面，小金属和贵金属价格上涨对 PPI 影响有限，因有色金属在 PPI 权重较低。预计 2026 年一季度 PPI 不会连续为正，明年 2 月 CPI 同比 预计达 1.5%，受春节错位和技术问题影响。 股市春节躁动对债市压力可控，单周涨幅超 10%才会对债券收益率产生 明显压力。央行通过流动性宽松和买入操作维稳市场，大型银行和保险 公司积极配置，无需过度担心政府债供给。 当前阶段应注重空间选择而非时间选择，十年国债利率区间 1.75%- 1.85%，30 年国债约 2.3%。银行杠杆票息策略舒适，调控空间有限， 应关注具体投资品种及其位置。 Q&A 2025 年债券市场在年底出现了较大调整，主要原因是什么？ 固收- 1 月债市展望 20251229 摘要 2025 年年底债券市场的调整主要有两个 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing limited incremental growth, characterized by stockholder competition as year-end approaches, leading to a seasonal tightening of market liquidity and a tendency for investors to lock in profits, resulting in a potential lack of new funds [3][5] - The overall market is entering a phase of adjustment and consolidation, although it remains in a bull market, suggesting that any temporary corrections may present good investment opportunities [5][6] Equity Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted towards small-cap stocks, while the growth style was favored over value [7][9] - The volatility of small-cap stocks decreased, while the volatility of growth stocks increased [9] - The dispersion of excess returns among industries decreased, and the speed of industry rotation slowed down, with a lower proportion of rising constituent stocks [7][9] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks accounting for a higher proportion of trading volume, while the top 5 industries saw a decrease in their trading volume share [7][9] - Market activity decreased, as indicated by lower market volatility and turnover rates [8][9] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of various sectors increased, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [25][26] - The basis momentum in the energy and chemical sector increased, while it decreased in other sectors [26] - Volatility levels rose in all sectors except for energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility [25][26] - Liquidity in the black sector decreased, while other sectors saw a slight increase [25][26] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices further declined, reaching historical low levels, closely approaching historical volatility [28] - The skewness of put options for the SSE 50 decreased, while it increased for the CSI 1000, indicating that market adjustments may begin with a divergence in market capitalization styles [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market exhibited low volatility and oscillation last week [33] - The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 remained high with little change, while the premium rate for debt-type bonds decreased [33] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds declined again, remaining at a low level, with trading volume maintaining near the historical median for the past year [33]

人民财讯12月9日电，12月9日，伴随着A股市场出现调整，可转债市场亦整体走低，中证转债指数收盘 跌0.61%。 （原标题：可转债市场整体走低 中证转债指数跌0.61%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market has seen active trading in 2023, with a total transaction volume of 15.89 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.33%. The overall market trend is positive, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 15.44% year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The convertible bond market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with continued strong demand driven by the positive equity market and the rise of "fixed income+" funds [1][2]. - As of December 3, the average price of convertible bonds in the market is 142.77 yuan, with an average conversion premium rate of 41.32%. There are 37 convertible bonds with a conversion premium rate exceeding 100% [1]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - Analysts predict that the valuation of the convertible bond market will remain high in 2026, supported by optimistic expectations for the equity market and potential policy benefits [2]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as hard technology, new consumption, and "anti-involution" themes, with a focus on industries likely to experience significant performance turning points [2].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing an upward trend and active trading, with optimism for future performance despite high valuations, driven by opportunities in both technology and traditional sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Strategy Overview - The "dual low" strategy focuses on identifying undervalued convertible bonds through a systematic approach that emphasizes "low price, low premium" standards [2]. - The strategy involves dynamic portfolio adjustments to seize market opportunities while avoiding high valuation securities that could lead to significant volatility [2][3]. - The strategy is segmented into defensive, balanced, and aggressive types, each tailored to different market conditions and risk profiles [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Current valuations in the convertible bond market are at historical highs, influenced by strong underlying stocks and supply-demand imbalances [4]. - Despite high valuations, there is a positive outlook for the market, with expectations of finding reasonably valued securities and potential for profit in both technology and traditional sectors [4][5]. - Anticipated policy measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand and reducing competition are expected to support a recovery in profitability and valuations in the coming year [4][5].

Group 1 - The China Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index (931078) increased by 0.18% as of November 25, 2025, with the Convertible Bond ETF (511380) rising by 0.16% to a latest price of 13.48 yuan. Over the past six months, the Convertible Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 12.24% [2] - The trading volume of the Convertible Bond ETF was active, with an intraday turnover of 11.58% and a transaction value of 6.747 billion yuan. The average daily transaction value over the past week was 11.313 billion yuan [2] - The convertible bond market demonstrated strong defensive characteristics during the recent equity market correction, with the China Convertible Bond Index declining by 1.78%, outperforming major broad-based indices. The median premium rate for par value has increased, indicating a stabilization and recovery in valuations [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, 2025, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for the month, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased liquidity measures [2] Group 2 - A new payment tool called "targeted convertible bonds" is gaining attention in the market, particularly favored by technology innovation enterprises. This tool can balance the benefits and risks for both parties in mergers and acquisitions while optimizing transaction structure flexibility [3] - The overall bond market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation pattern, with weak sentiment in the equity market and a lack of clear trading themes in the bond market. However, the PBOC's unchanged stance is expected to quickly alleviate liquidity issues, presenting a buying opportunity for the market [3] - The latest scale of the Convertible Bond ETF reached 58.046 billion yuan, with a recent net outflow of 554 million yuan. Over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 2.118 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 424 million yuan [3] - The Convertible Bond ETF closely tracks the China Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index, which consists of convertible and exchangeable bonds listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, calculated using a market capitalization weighting method [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an optimistic outlook for the convertible bond market in 2026, emphasizing the potential for significant breakthroughs and extraordinary returns in this sector [2] Group 1: Market Overview - The convertible bond market is expected to experience substantial growth, driven by favorable market conditions and investor interest [2] - Key factors influencing the market include interest rate trends, corporate earnings, and overall economic performance [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article highlights specific sectors and companies that are likely to benefit from the convertible bond market's expansion, suggesting that investors should focus on high-growth industries [2] - It also mentions the importance of selecting convertible bonds with strong underlying equity performance to maximize returns [2] Group 3: Risk Factors - While the outlook is positive, the article acknowledges potential risks that could impact the convertible bond market, including market volatility and changes in interest rates [2] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions in this space [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The convertible bond market rose slightly this week while the equity market declined. Since the beginning of 2025, both the convertible bond market and the equity market have been on an upward trend, but the convertible bond market has underperformed the equity market. Currently, the issuance of new convertible bonds has not accelerated significantly, demand remains strong, high - quality convertible bonds are scarce, and prices are relatively high. Fine - tuned bond selection is needed, and it is recommended to comprehensively consider bond terms and underlying stock conditions, diversify investments, and balance risks and returns [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情 - From November 10 to November 14, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +0.52% (last week's increase was +0.86%), and the CSI All - Share Index decreased by - 0.53% (last week's increase was +0.63%). Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +18.61%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +23.61% [1]. - By bond rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) rose by - 0.61%, - 0.38%, +0.56%, - 0.09%, and +0.17% respectively this week, with medium - rated bonds having the highest increase [1]. - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) rose by - 0.41%, - 0.88%, +0.83%, +0.10%, and +0.32% respectively this week, with medium - scale convertible bonds having the highest increase [2]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) rose by - 3.78%, +1.54%, - 0.64%, - 0.22%, +0.52%, +0.96%, and +0.30% respectively this week, with high - parity bonds having the highest increase [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - As of November 14, 2025, there were 412 outstanding convertible bonds (411 at the end of last week), with a balance of 566.85 billion yuan (569.538 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 133.30 yuan (132.07 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 99.28% (from the beginning of 2023 to November 14, 2025). The average conversion parity was 105.52 yuan (105.90 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 95.81%. The average conversion premium rate was 27.12% (27.07% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 18.21% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - The convertible bond market rose slightly this week while the equity market declined. Since the beginning of 2025, both markets have risen, but the convertible bond market has underperformed. With no obvious acceleration in new bond issuance, strong demand, and high scarcity of high - quality bonds, and relatively high market prices, fine - tuned bond selection is needed. It is recommended to comprehensively consider bond terms and underlying stock conditions, diversify investments, and balance risks and returns [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Ranking - The top 15 convertible bonds with the highest increases this week include Guocheng Convertible Bond (31.44%), Dazhong Convertible Bond (28.89%), Dongshi Convertible Bond (20.41%), etc. [22]

Group 1 - The issuance of convertible bonds has seen a recovery this year, with 36 companies completing issuances totaling 57.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.6% [1] - The China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 18% this year, indicating strong performance in the secondary market [1][3] - In the fourth quarter, there has been an acceleration in the issuance of convertible bonds, with 11 companies launching plans since October [1] Group 2 - Several companies are using convertible bonds for mergers and acquisitions, such as Xinbang Intelligent and Sunshine Nuohe [1] - Over 100 convertible bonds have been delisted this year due to price surges triggering forced redemptions and approaching maturities [2] - The market for convertible bonds is experiencing a reduction in outstanding bonds, with significant issuances like Daqin and Citic bonds being delisted [2] Group 3 - The market for convertible bonds is characterized by its "attack and defense" advantages, attracting investor interest [3] - The highest price for a convertible bond this year reached 2593.987 yuan, indicating strong demand and market activity [3] - Analysts suggest that the convertible bond market may enter a wide fluctuation range in the fourth quarter, with a focus on low-priced bonds with conversion demands [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - From October 19 to October 25, 2025, the convertible bond market recovered with the warming of the stock market. In the short term, it is still mainly characterized by structural rotation, with obvious style differentiation. The growth sector performed relatively strongly, with active trading in the power equipment and electronics sectors. Low - price and short - duration individual bonds showed prominent elasticity. The valuation of medium - and low - price varieties was slightly compressed, and the implied volatility rebounded slightly but remained high. The market is in a stage of shock and momentum accumulation, and investors can appropriately participate in trading opportunities in the rotation rhythm by combining the fundamentals and valuation of the underlying stocks. The supply in the primary market is stable, and clause games remain an important variable in the market [2][6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Confidence and Overall Situation - Since the end of August, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has entered a shock consolidation stage. The current market's expectation of the future has improved marginally, and some varieties show signs of market price repair. The market is in a shock and momentum - accumulating stage, and the style has not yet formed a dominant trend [9]. - The current implied volatility of the convertible bond market has a slight upward trend, while the 30 - day historical volatility of the Wind All - A Index is declining, indicating that investors' expectations of the future are being repaired, and the market may be accumulating power for a new round of trend - based market [15]. 3.2 A - share Market Performance - During the week, the A - share market rebounded as a whole, with major stock indexes generally rising. The ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 performed relatively prominently. The outflow of main funds converged, and trading volume shrank, reflecting that market sentiment tended to be cautious. Structurally, the technology - growth sector continued to be strong, with communication, electronics, and media leading the gains, while the consumer sector performed relatively weakly. The electronics sector still had a high trading volume ratio, indicating that the technology direction still attracted capital attention. However, the valuation and congestion of some sectors are at a high level, and short - term callback pressure and capital game rhythm need to be noted [9]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Market Performance - During the week, the convertible bond market strengthened with the recovery of the equity market, and the small - cap style had better elasticity. The valuation structure was slightly stretched, and the valuation of medium - and low - market - price convertible bonds was slightly compressed, reflecting the strong performance of the underlying stocks. The implied volatility rebounded slightly and remained at a high level, and the median market price fluctuated strongly, indicating the repair of market expectations. In terms of industries, the growth direction led the gains, and trading was concentrated in sectors such as power equipment and electronics. Individual bonds generally rose, and some short - duration varieties had high gains, showing structural differentiation [9]. 3.4 Primary Market Supply - During the week, the supply in the primary market remained stable. One new convertible bond was listed, and 11 companies updated their issuance plans, with the overall issuance progress being steady [9]. 3.5 Clause Games - In terms of downward revisions, 5 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 6 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemptions, 6 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 announced no early redemptions, and 2 announced early redemptions. Clause events were active, and clause games remained the focus of market attention [9].