对 前 人 载 探 本报评论》 体 中国能源报副总编辑 李基|习近平总书记强调:"要深化强 素市场化配置改革,主动研验地方保护,? 扬分割和'内卷式'变争。"今年以来,反"p 参"备受关注,来优行业更改为媒体关注的 側点、集中整治的重点,其出现"内邊式"变 争的深展顾圆是什么? 假期:上车年,过车数中国无役会走家 舰网比或专点净利润增长,这反映出国家 行业和企业最面多变条下、体同在对"内 行业和企业品回到了审了。100%的五面是 到来,不可忽视解决这一问题的复杂过 ，一看地方以融资、税收、周地等设 主业引先使项目企业高地、部分企业 给稳旋"开拓市场,创新不足,同看化) 童,虽然导致体实失败。 李基｣实际上,"内参式"竞争不仅存在 于光伏行业。在新能源汽车,电商,外卖等 领域,都出现了过度压低价格的"内卷式 争问题。从经济发展规律来看,如何认 识"内卷式"竞争现象? 使用:市场是配置资源 最有效率的 争才能促胜者注。因而,睡眠主持 "选择,汇聚超来现可能那成家观 品击的"非理社"规意。"内基式"竞争流浸 个要型的"合成得说",反映出市场负 的问题,为互换出一般地方对路工作了 的问题。 原t 地看,偏不应泉下的竞 ...

对话人： 李拯：实际上，"内卷式"竞争不仅存在于光伏行业。在新能源汽车、电商、外卖等领 域，都出现了过度压低价格的"内卷式"竞争问题。从经济发展规律来看，如何认识"内卷 式"竞争现象？ 李 拯 人民日报评论员 焦 翔 中国能源报副总编辑 李拯：习近平总书记强调："要深化要素市场化配置改革，主动破除地方保护、市场分 割和'内卷式'竞争。"今年以来，反"内卷"备受关注，光伏行业更成为媒体关注的焦点、集中 整治的重点，其出现"内卷式"竞争的深层原因是什么？ 焦翔：上半年，近半数中国光伏企业实现同比减亏或净利润增长，这反映出国家、行业 和企业层面多管齐下、协同应对"内卷式"竞争是有效果的，但行业盈利拐点尚未到来，不可 忽视解决这一问题的复杂性。过去，一些地方以融资、税收、用地等优惠政策吸引光伏项目 企业落地，部分企业以"价格战"开拓市场，创新不足，同质化严重，最终导致供需失衡。 焦翔：市场是配置资源最有效率的形式，有竞争才能优胜劣汰。然而，微观主体的"理 性"选择，汇聚起来就可能形成宏观层面的"非理性"现象。"内卷式"竞争就是一个典型的"合 成谬误"，反映出市场失灵的问题，也反映出一些地方政府不当干预的问题。 历史地 ...

李拯：习近平总书记强调："要深化要素市场化配置改革，主动破除地方保护、市场分割和'内卷式'竞 争。"今年以来，反"内卷"备受关注，光伏行业更成为媒体关注的焦点、集中整治的重点，其出现"内卷 式"竞争的深层原因是什么？ 焦翔：上半年，近半数中国光伏企业实现同比减亏或净利润增长，这反映出国家、行业和企业层面多管 齐下、协同应对"内卷式"竞争是有效果的，但行业盈利拐点尚未到来，不可忽视解决这一问题的复杂 性。过去，一些地方以融资、税收、用地等优惠政策吸引光伏项目企业落地，部分企业以"价格战"开拓 市场，创新不足，同质化严重，最终导致供需失衡。 李拯：实际上，"内卷式"竞争不仅存在于光伏行业。在新能源汽车、电商、外卖等领域，都出现了过度 压低价格的"内卷式"竞争问题。从经济发展规律来看，如何认识"内卷式"竞争现象？ 焦翔：市场是配置资源最有效率的形式，有竞争才能优胜劣汰。然而，微观主体的"理性"选择，汇聚起 来就可能形成宏观层面的"非理性"现象。"内卷式"竞争就是一个典型的"合成谬误"，反映出市场失灵的 问题，也反映出一些地方政府不当干预的问题。 历史地看，供不应求下的竞争不充分和供大于求下的竞争过度，都会在发展进程 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is facing multiple crises and challenges, but China's economy shows resilience and stability, with a focus on maintaining strategic confidence and promoting positive narratives about economic prospects [1][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023 emphasized the importance of economic communication and public opinion guidance to counter negative perceptions of China's economy [1][3] - There is a need for economic news reporting to be grounded and relatable to the public, utilizing both traditional and innovative methods to effectively engage audiences [1][3][4] Group 2 - Economic news reporting has expanded in breadth and depth, but there are challenges such as a disconnect between media output and audience engagement, leading to a phenomenon of "flow anxiety" [2][4] - The complexity of China's economic landscape requires nuanced reporting that addresses both macroeconomic achievements and the realities faced by various industries and businesses [3][4] - Media should avoid "composite fallacies" by not generalizing from individual cases, which can mislead investors and create an illusion of unbalanced growth [4][5] Group 3 - The rise of diverse media platforms has created a contrast between traditional media narratives and the more sensationalized content from popular financial influencers, necessitating a shift in reporting styles to capture audience attention [5][6] - Successful economic reporting should combine deep research with innovative storytelling to resonate with audiences, as evidenced by various media initiatives that have achieved significant engagement [6][10] - The importance of building a media think tank to enhance the capacity for economic reporting and policy analysis has been highlighted, with examples of successful initiatives in various regions [11][14] Group 4 - Economic news reporting must focus on addressing pressing issues such as industrial optimization, innovation capacity, and consumer demand, while maintaining a positive narrative [9][10] - Major themes in economic reporting should be explored deeply, combining historical context, logical analysis, and engaging storytelling to enhance audience understanding [10][14] - Journalists are encouraged to develop skills in continuous learning, in-depth research, and creating impactful works that reflect the realities of the economy [14][17]

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" differs from previous instances by focusing more on regulating local government behavior, emphasizing the need for a unified government action standard [2][11][90] - The shift from "Five Unifications and One Abolition" to "Five Unifications and One Opening" highlights the importance of local government behavior regulation and external openness [11][12][90] - The current round of "involution" is driven by local governments' deep involvement, characterized by creating policy gaps, blindly launching projects, and setting market barriers [2][16][90] Group 2 - Local governments are facing pressure to find growth drivers due to the downturn in the real estate cycle, with national commodity housing sales area down 39.7% and real estate investment down 27.3% from 2021 to 2024 [4][29][92] - The reliance on land finance has decreased, leading local governments to seek growth in high-tax industries, with manufacturing and wholesale retail accounting for 32% and 14% of total tax revenue in 2021 [4][37][92] - The principle of "production-based taxation" in the VAT system encourages local governments to promote manufacturing clusters [42][92] Group 3 - The average investment growth rate in manufacturing exceeded 10% in 16 provinces from 2022 to 2023, with the top five provinces averaging over 20% [52][53][92] - There is a significant overlap in industrial planning among local governments, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, new materials, artificial intelligence, and new energy, leading to repeated construction and overcapacity [57][94] - Local governments are competing through tax incentives and subsidies, resulting in significant differences in manufacturing tax burdens across provinces, with a national average of 17.4% in 2023 [70][94] Group 4 - The central government is likely to implement targeted reforms to address local government "involution," including regulating investment attraction behaviors and promoting a healthy investment environment [79][94] - Short-term measures may include cleaning up illegal policy incentives, while long-term strategies could involve changing government functions and promoting efficient resource allocation nationwide [79][94]

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" differs from previous efforts by focusing more on regulating local government behavior, particularly in investment attraction and market openness [2][9][76] - The emphasis on "unifying government behavior standards" reflects a shift from previous policies that addressed nationwide supply-demand imbalances to a more localized approach addressing government actions [9][76] - Local governments are increasingly involved in "involution" competition, characterized by creating policy gaps, blindly launching projects, and setting market barriers [14][76] Group 2 - Local governments are under pressure to find new growth drivers due to declining real estate sales and investment, with cumulative declines of 39.7% and 27.3% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [23][30] - The reliance on land finance has decreased, leading local governments to focus on high-tax industries such as manufacturing and wholesale retail, which accounted for 32% and 14% of total tax revenue in 2021 [33][38] - The central government's transfer payments have become increasingly important for local governments, with significant subsidies for emerging industries like renewable energy exceeding revenues by 357.9 billion yuan [41][76] Group 3 - The overlap in industrial planning among local governments has led to excessive investment and competition, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, new materials, and renewable energy, with 19 industries appearing in over 20 provinces' plans [54][77] - Local governments are competing through tax incentives and subsidies to attract industries, resulting in significant disparities in manufacturing tax burdens across provinces, ranging from 9.7% to 30.1% [63][77] - The lack of coordination in industrial planning has resulted in repeated construction and increased regional competition, leading to lower product prices and reduced industry concentration in sectors like automotive [66][77]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies while addressing the declining marginal efficiency of these policies [2][3] - The importance of ensuring consistency between economic and non-economic policies to avoid "composite fallacy" is highlighted, as conflicting policies can lead to suboptimal outcomes [2][3] - The necessity of improving the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic policies to achieve intended policy goals is discussed, indicating that a blockage in these mechanisms can hinder effectiveness [3][4] Group 2 - The role of automatic stabilizers and fiscal policy transmission mechanisms is crucial, with income distribution, money supply, and prices being key mediators [4][5] - The need for a robust expectation management mechanism is outlined, emphasizing that market participants' expectations can significantly influence policy effectiveness [6][7] - The importance of matching policy goals with appropriate tools is stressed, referencing Tinbergen's principle that the number of policy instruments should at least equal the number of targets [9] Group 3 - The coordination between short-term and long-term policies is essential for stabilizing economic growth, with short-term counter-cyclical policies needing to align with structural reforms [10][11] - The current economic environment necessitates stronger macroeconomic stimulus policies to break negative cycles and restore confidence among businesses and households [8][11] - The potential negative impacts of short-term policies on long-term structural reforms must be carefully managed to ensure overall policy effectiveness [11]

以下文章来源于晚点对话 ，作者龚方毅 黄俊杰 中金公司首席经济学家 彭文生 " 建立消费大市场需要回归常识，让发展成果更公平惠及全体人民" 晚点对话 . 最一手的商业访谈，最真实的企业家思考。 对等关税从 34% 涨到 125%，已经足以说明买方与卖方的简单权力关系。 7 年前，特朗普第一次对中国发起贸易冲突时，中金公司首席经济学家彭文生提出短期可以用货币、 财政政策应对，但长期需要给中国的消费者减负。 这也是他长期以来的政策主张之一。在 2013 年出版的《渐行渐远的红利》一书中，彭文生就建议随 着政府财力和整体经济实力的增长，中国应当扩大和增强社会保障体系，再结合其他制度调整，缩小 贫富差距，提高全民的消费意愿。 现在，中国如何让自己的国民更有能力消费被更多提及。今年初，中央经济工作会议将 "大力提振消 费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求" 作为经济工作的首要重点任务。在诸多问题上有分歧的国 内学者们普遍呼吁公平分配、促进消费。 既然 3.5 亿人能成为消费的 "甲方"，14 亿人的统一大市场应该诞生更多的富足的消费者，而不只是全 世界最高效率的工厂。 4 月 13 日，我们再度拜访彭文生，谈论美国成为 ...

以下文章来源于晚点对话 ，作者龚方毅 黄俊杰 晚点对话 . 最一手的商业访谈，最真实的企业家思考。 对等关税从 34% 涨到 125%，已经足以说明买方与卖方的简单权力关系。 7 年前，特朗普第一次对中国发起贸易冲突时，中金公司首席经济学家彭文生提出短期可以用货币、 财政政策应对，但长期需要给中国的消费者减负。 这也是他长期以来的政策主张之一。在 2013 年出版的《渐行渐远的红利》一书中，彭文生就建议随 着政府财力和整体经济实力的增长，中国应当扩大和增强社会保障体系，再结合其他制度调整，缩小 贫富差距，提高全民的消费意愿。 中金公司首席经济学家 彭文生 " 建立消费大市场需要回归常识，让发展成果更公平惠及全体人民" 文 丨 龚方毅 黄俊杰 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 这一轮贸易战开始的第一周，中文社交网络上流行起来一个容易理解的类比：甲方要逼乙方重签合 同。极其复杂的地缘政治、货币财政、金融历史被简化为交易中的权力关系。 有人觉得美国是甲方，因为 4.2% 的人口每年的消费额占全球的 1/3。白宫似乎也是这么想的，特朗普 的新闻发言人最近断言，每个国家都会寻求和解，因为所有人都想要美国的消费者。 但 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2022, the phenomenon of negative excess returns in actively managed equity funds has become increasingly common and severe, with most products underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index for three consecutive years [2][3] Group 1: Performance Comparison - The excess returns of actively managed equity funds turned negative after 2022, with a significant number of products underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - In 2024, the proportion of actively managed funds outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, and others is very low, at only 19%, 14%, 18%, and 20% respectively, with average excess returns of -7.4%, -9.7%, -8.9%, and -8.0% [2] - Compared to index funds, actively managed equity funds have consistently shown lower performance, with average excess returns being negative from 2022 to 2024, while index funds maintained stable positive excess returns [2] Group 2: Market Volatility Impact - Significant negative excess returns in actively managed equity funds are concentrated around specific market windows, including periods of tightened COVID-19 control and liquidity crises in small-cap stocks [3] - The inability of actively managed funds to capitalize on key market turning points has left them in a passive position during major fluctuations in the A-share market [3] Group 3: Correlation Among Funds - Actively managed funds with significant negative excess returns exhibit higher correlation, with historical net value trends showing a cosine similarity of 0.72 for frequently underperforming products compared to 0.60 for others [4] - The similarity in holdings among all actively managed equity funds has remained high since 2022, with those showing significant negative excess returns having even higher similarity than other funds [4][5] Group 4: Systemic Issues - The worsening negative excess returns in actively managed equity funds may reflect a phenomenon of synthetic fallacy, where individual rational decisions lead to collective irrational outcomes [6] - Systemic flaws in industry assessment mechanisms and risk management models contribute to this issue, as the cost of deviating from mainstream holdings often outweighs the risks of following erroneous trends [6] - By the end of 2024, the concentration of top ten holdings in actively managed equity funds reached 58%, an increase of 22 percentage points since 2018, indicating a trend of "herding" behavior that exacerbates the decline in excess returns [6]