南华商品指数：农产品板块上涨，黑色板块领跌 王怡琳 2025-08-19 16:47:06 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.34%。板块指数中，只有南华农产品指数，上涨 0.09%，其余板块均是下跌，跌幅最大的板块是南华黑色指数，跌幅为-0.62%，跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指 数，跌幅为-0.39%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是油脂油料指数，上涨0.28%，涨幅最小的主题指数是煤制 化工指数，涨幅为0.04%，跌幅最大的主题指数是建材指数，跌幅为-1.01%，跌幅最小的主题指数是石油化工指 数，跌幅为-0.2%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是尿素，上涨3. 注 : (1) 文中的涨转版){今日收盘价--昨日收盘价)与昨日收盘价的比值; 文中的贡献度为涨跌幅和权直的乘积; (2) 南华商品指数刷除了商品合约换月时的价老。反映了投资商品期货的喜实收登。 (3) 文中所使用的贡献度计算方法为 - 某品种当日涨跌幅/ 江|各品种当日涨跌幅/ 黄色鼓摇条代表品种当日上涨，蓝色数据条代表品种当日下 数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 是一面都能够落实完全"。 来源：网络网站 ...

数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 是一面都能够落实完全"。 来源：网络网站 本页是中国网站 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： ： 空 上 有 ： 2 ： 2 ： 南华商品指数： 王怡琳 2025-08-18 16:59:47 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.15%。板块指数中，涨幅最大的板块是南华贵金属 指数，上涨0.38%，涨幅最小的板块是南华农产品指数，涨幅为0.11%，跌幅最大的板块是南华黑色指数，跌幅 为-0.85%，跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指数，跌幅为-0.25%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是油脂油料指 数，上涨0.6%，涨幅最小的主题指数是石油化工指数，涨幅为0.04%，跌幅最大的主题指数是黑色原材料指数，跌 幅为-0.84%，跌幅最小的主题指数是迷你综合指数，跌幅为-0.23%。 商品期货 出版 8 3 3 8 8 5 5 3 8 8 5 3 8 8 5 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：虽然巴西高升水小幅回落，但在美豆出口未见实质性改善之前，巴西大豆高升水的格局难有改 变，这也为国内豆粕提供了坚实的原料成本支撑，远月合约仍有供应和成本的双重支撑。在中美贸易关系 的扰动下，伴随着资金的移仓换月，前期获利盘止盈离场，豆粕期价迎来高位动荡，短期震荡偏强，内外 价差修复。 策略参考 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Commodity Index Daily Report [2] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Author: Nanhua Index Group, including Cao Yanghui, Zhao Bo, and Wang Yilin [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.81% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose by 0.02%, while the rest of the sectors declined. The sector with the largest decline was the Nanhua Black Index, down -1.56%, and the sector with the smallest decline was the Nanhua Non-Ferrous Metals Index, down -0.63%. All theme indices declined, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest decline of -1.99% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.04%. Among the single-variety indices of commodity futures, the caustic soda index had the largest increase of 1.26%, and the rapeseed meal index had the largest decline of -3.05% [1][3][4]. Index Performance Summary Composite and Sector Indices - Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI): Closed at 2534.95, down -0.81% from the previous close of 2555.72, with an annualized return of 0.35% and an annualized volatility of 13.73% [3]. - Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI): Closed at 1261.11, up 0.02% from 1260.91, with an annualized return of 29.51% and an annualized volatility of 16.60% [3]. - Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII): Closed at 3650.38, down -0.89% from 3683.10, with an annualized return of -6.10% and an annualized volatility of 16.15% [3]. - Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI): Closed at 6464.57, down -1.02% from 6531.47, with an annualized return of 1.60% and an annualized volatility of 14.94% [3]. - Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI): Closed at 1681.16, down -0.70% from 1693.04, with an annualized return of -12.75% and an annualized volatility of 18.40% [3]. - Nanhua Non-Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF): Closed at 1713.87, down -0.63% from 1724.76, with an annualized return of 5.63% and an annualized volatility of 13.41% [3]. - Nanhua Black Index (NHFI): Closed at 2582.71, down -1.56% from 2623.70, with an annualized return of -8.58% and an annualized volatility of 21.92% [3]. - Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI): Closed at 1113.19, down -0.86% from 1122.89, with an annualized return of 5.55% and an annualized volatility of 9.53% [3]. - Nanhua Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi): Closed at 1191.43, down -0.91% from 1202.38, with an annualized return of 3.23% and an annualized volatility of 14.63% [3]. - Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI): Closed at 1058.07, down -1.05% from 1069.32, with an annualized return of 2.54% and an annualized volatility of 29.87% [3]. - Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI): Closed at 945.19, down -0.85% from 953.29, with an annualized return of 0.75% and an annualized volatility of 15.28% [3]. - Nanhua Coal Chemical Index (NHCCI): Closed at 1036.33, down -1.00% from 1046.83, with an annualized return of 1.17% and an annualized volatility of 17.17% [3]. - Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM): Closed at 1067.01, down -1.99% from 1088.67, with an annualized return of 7.32% and an annualized volatility of 23.31% [3]. - Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI): Closed at 763.35, down -0.72% from 768.87, with an annualized return of 3.25% and an annualized volatility of 23.12% [3]. - Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI): Closed at 1287.05, down -1.18% from 1302.40, with an annualized return of 3.74% and an annualized volatility of 10.27% [3]. - Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI): Closed at 910.15, down -0.04% from 910.49, with an annualized return of 1.89% and an annualized volatility of 5.65% [3]. Theme Indices - All theme indices declined, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest decline of -1.99% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.04% [4] Single-Variety Indices - The caustic soda index had the largest increase of 1.26%, and the rapeseed meal index had the largest decline of -3.05% [1][4] Contribution to Index Movements - For the Nanhua Composite Index, positive contributors included soda ash (4.15%), while negative contributors included zinc (-1.52%), aluminum (-1.80%), and PVC (-1.98%) [8] - For the Nanhua Mini Composite Index, positive contributors included soda ash (7.44%), while negative contributors included zinc (-32.55%), aluminum (-1.80%), and PVC (-1.98%) [8] - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, positive contributors included soda ash (4.69%), while negative contributors included iron ore (-1.68%), crude oil (-1.61%), and zinc (-1.67%) [8] - For the Nanhua Metal Index, positive contributors included caustic soda (2.54%), while negative contributors included tin (-6.52%), aluminum (-3.51%), and zinc (-3.51%) [8] - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, positive contributors included soda ash (7.47%), while negative contributors included crude oil (-16.62%), iron ore (-19.37%), and PVC (-9.11%) [8] - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, positive contributors included cotton (1.45%), while negative contributors included rapeseed meal (-17.58%), palm oil (-22.79%), and soybean meal (-14.26%) [8] Other Information - The calculation of price changes is (today's closing price - yesterday's closing price) / yesterday's closing price, and the contribution is the product of price change and weight [11] - The Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the price difference when changing commodity contracts, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [11] - The contribution calculation method used is: a variety's daily price change / ∑|all varieties' daily price changes|, with yellow data bars indicating a daily increase and blue data bars indicating a daily decrease [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil futures prices is expected to be on the stronger side, while the medium - term outlook for both is oscillatory [5][6][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog For Soybean Meal (M): - **Price Movement and Views**: The intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The short - term view of the 2601 contract is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and market trading is mainly based on expected changes. The determination of dumping of Canadian - origin rapeseed by China has led to tense trade relations between China and Canada, and changes in Sino - US trade relations continue to affect market sentiment [5]. For Palm Oil (P): - **Price Movement and Views**: The intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The short - term view of the 2601 contract is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [6][7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The rotation market in the oil and fat sector continues. Palm oil is continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. The change in Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relations has reignited the sentiment in the rapeseed oil market, leading to a catch - up rise and a platform breakthrough. The linkage support among oil and fat varieties is expected to strengthen [8]. For Soybean Oil (2601): - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index dropped 63.9 points, a decline of -2.46%. The most influential varieties were glass and soda ash, with the glass variety index falling -19.09% and contributing -0.45%, and the soda ash variety index falling -12.78% and contributing -0.41% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 143.52 points, a -3.75% decline. The most influential varieties were glass and coke, with the glass variety index contributing -0.58% and the coke variety index contributing -0.57% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index declined by 231.92 points, a -3.52% drop. The most influential variety was rebar, contributing -0.83% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 74.12 points, a -4.15% decline. The most influential variety was glass, contributing -0.86% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index decreased by 11.57 points, a -1.05% decline. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.35% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2532.30 | 2596.21 | -63.90 | -2.46% | 2596.21 | 2532.30 | 63.90 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1233.23 | 1265.35 | -32.12 | -2.54% | 1265.35 | 1233.23 | 32.12 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3680.14 | 3823.66 | -143.52 | -3.75% | 3823.66 | 3680.14 | 143.52 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6362.56 | 6594.47 | -231.92 | -3.52% | 6594.47 | 6358.30 | 236.18 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1713.91 | 1788.03 | -74.12 | -4.15% | 1788.03 | 1713.91 | 74.12 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1676.07 | 1734.53 | -58.46 | -3.37% | 1734.53 | 1676.07 | 58.46 | | Black Index NHFI | 2551.46 | 2683.73 | -132.27 | -4.93% | 2683.73 | 2551.46 | 132.27 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1090.74 | 1102.32 | -11.57 | -1.05% | 1102.32 | 1090.74 | 11.57 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1201.10 | 1214.44 | -13.33 | -1.10% | 1214.44 | 1191.96 | 22.48 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1112.54 | 1115.74 | -3.20 | -0.29% | 1128.64 | 1085.19 | 43.45 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 958.73 | 986.16 | -27.44 | -2.78% | 986.16 | 958.73 | 27.44 | | Forestry and Industry Index NHCCI | 1046.71 | 1093.43 | -46.72 | -4.27% | 1093.43 | 1046.71 | 46.72 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1043.56 | 1105.10 | -61.54 | -5.57% | 1105.10 | 1043.56 | 61.54 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 769.05 | 832.71 | -63.66 | -7.64% | 832.71 | 769.05 | 63.66 | | Oilseeds Index HOOl | 1238.59 | 1236.73 | 1.87 | 0.15% | 1244.38 | 1229.85 | 14.54 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 886.36 | 913.12 | -26.76 | -2.93% | 913.12 | 886.36 | 26.76 | [3] 3.2. Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua variety indices, including the current value, previous value, change, and ranking. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the comprehensive index is 0.487, with a change of -0.000384339 and a ranking of 0.790 [6]. 3.3. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuation to the Index Fluctuation - The report presents the average weekly open interest, month - on - month increase, and open interest ratio of various futures varieties. For instance, the average weekly open interest of soybean meal is 4,759,408 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of -1.56% and an open interest ratio of 12.45% [8]. 3.4. Weekly Data of Nanhua's Sector Indices - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3680.14 this week, down 3.75% from last week. The top six contributing varieties were glass, coke, soda ash, rebar, natural rubber, and alumina [10]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Closed at 6362.56 this week, down 3.52% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were rebar, lithium carbonate, and alumina [10]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Closed at 1713.91 this week, down 4.15% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were glass, coke, and soda ash [10]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1090.74 this week, down 1.05% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were live pigs, cotton, and apples [10]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: Closed at 2551.46 this week, down 4.93% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were coke, rebar, and iron ore [11]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index**: Closed at 1676.07 this week, down 3.37% from last week. The top two contributing varieties were lithium carbonate and alumina [13].

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.19% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Metal Index rose by 0.07%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -0.68%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.02% [1][2]. - In the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.27%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.03%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -0.73%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.04% [1][2]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the jujube index rose by 2.1%, and the coking coal index had the largest decline of -5.38% [2]. Group 2: Index Data Details - Various index data including today's closing price, previous closing price, annualized return, annualized volatility are presented, such as the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAl), Mini Composite Index (NHClM), etc. [2] Group 3: Industry Chain and Single - Variety Index Changes - The single - variety index daily changes and industry chain diagrams of the energy and chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors are provided. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, glass declined by -1.34%, and in the agricultural product sector, palm oil rose by 0.11% [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic situations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories 3.1 Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday, with a nearly 20% drop due to a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper. Fundamentally, strong US employment data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Short - term, the strong dollar pressures metals; mid - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.10% yesterday. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand is in the traditional off - season with a slight decline in the开工 rate of aluminum products. Aluminum prices have limited upside and are expected to oscillate; it's recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.57% yesterday. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. It's in a multi - empty game stage; it's advised to wait for clearer signals and stay on the sidelines [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract of zinc closed up 0.11% yesterday. Supply pressure continues as port inventories of concentrates decrease but import TC jumps and refinery profits are high. Consumption is weak in the off - season, and there is a risk of a squeeze. A sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract of lead closed down 0.06% yesterday. Supply is restricted by refinery maintenance and slow restart of recycled lead production. Consumption shows some resilience but at a low level. Inventory is increasing, and spot liquidity is tightening. A range - bound operation with short - term long positions on pullbacks is suggested [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract closed down. Supply is increasing with复产 plans in the northwest and Xinjiang. Demand is mixed, with stable polysilicon开工, a decline in organic silicon output, and a slowdown in aluminum alloy demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see and monitor复产 plans [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract closed up. Supply is decreasing slightly, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Inventories are at a record high. Due to the retreat of anti - involution trading, prices are expected to correct in the short term with increased volatility; caution is advised [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 09 contract closed up. Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak with a decline in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a pessimistic outlook for photovoltaic installations. The market is expected to oscillate widely between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan; it's recommended to wait and see and watch for policy and warehouse receipt changes [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Strong US data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Supply and demand are both weak. A range - bound trading approach is recommended [2]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed down. Supply and demand are relatively balanced but structurally differentiated. Futures are slightly over - valued. A short - term short - selling strategy is recommended [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed down. Supply and demand are neutral to strong. Futures are fairly valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed down. Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. Futures are over - valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to fall. Supply is abundant both in the near and long term, and demand for US soybeans is weak due to tariffs. US soybeans are expected to be weak in the short term; domestic soybeans may follow international cost trends in the medium term. Monitor weather and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight with less remaining grain, but substitute products and imports affect prices. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed down. Indian sugar exports pressured the market, while domestic prices rebounded due to positive sentiment. Futures are expected to oscillate weakly; a short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton futures fell, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated down. International tariff policies and domestic industrial losses affected the market. It's recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13,600 - 14,000 yuan range [5]. - **Log**: The 09 contract of log closed down. Market activity increased in trading volume and open interest, but spot prices were stable. It's recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand for exports is weak. Short - term, it's in a weak cycle; medium - term, it's recommended to be long - biased [5]. - **Egg**: The 2509 contract of egg was weak. High temperatures reduced supply, and demand may increase seasonally, but high cold - storage egg inventories will limit price increases. Futures prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Live Pig**: The 2509 contract of live pig was weak. Consumption is seasonally weak, and supply pressure is high. Pig prices are expected to decline in the medium term. Monitor the slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [6]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing domestically but may decrease in imports. Demand is improving in some areas. Short - term, it will oscillate; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed down. Supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract of rubber closed down. Raw material prices are falling, and inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed down. Supply may increase, and inventories are falling. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [7]. - **PP**: The PP contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices rose sharply. Supply may be disrupted due to potential sanctions, and demand is mixed. It's recommended to wait and see due to uncertainty [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract of soda ash closed down. Supply is stable, and inventories are decreasing. It's recommended to wait and see or try short - selling options [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of soybean meal futures prices is influenced by market sentiment and fluctuates significantly. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend, while the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish with a volatile bias [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are boosted by the slight rebound of international oil prices and the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices, and the intraday and medium - term views are bullish with a volatile bias [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [5][7] - **Core Logic**: After the concentrated exit of long - position funds, the futures price dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of the US trade negotiations with other countries, which will affect the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the US soybean futures price will remain volatile. The price of soybean meal futures is more affected by market sentiment and fluctuates violently. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish with a volatile bias; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The slight rebound of international oil prices boosts the entire oil and fat sector. As the variety with the strongest energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, palm oil is the first to be affected and shows strength. In addition, it is favored by funds due to the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices. Attention should also be paid to the possible adverse impact of the Indonesian fire on palm oil production in some areas [8]. Other Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week; Medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [7] - **Calculation of Price Fluctuation**: For varieties with night - session trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day. The definition of price trends is: a decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly volatile; an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly volatile; an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The views of strongly/weakly volatile only apply to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [2][3][4]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - Today, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.36% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][9]. - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 1.04%, while the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.38%. The Nanhua Metal Index had the largest decline of -1.01%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.74% [1][9]. - Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.23%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.08%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -1.56%, and the Energy Index had the smallest decline of -0.15% [1][9]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the largest decline was seen in carbonate with a decline of -4.8% [9]. 2. Some Single - Variety Index Data - Palm oil had a change of 0.76% and -0.35%, rapeseed oil had -0.22% and -0.02%, and corn had -0.04% [4]. - In the energy - chemical sector, synthetic ammonia had a decline of -3.04%, vinyl chloride had -2.07%, polyethylene had -1.12%, PTA had -0.21%, and crude oil had -0.12% [9]. 3. Other Information - The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates price changes during contract roll - over and reflects the actual return on investing in commodity futures [5]. - The calculation method of contribution is the product of the daily change rate and the weight, and the contribution of a certain variety is calculated as the daily change rate of the variety divided by the sum of the daily change rates of all varieties [5].