冯琳分析，"靠前使用化债额度"有可能指四季度就开始发行提前下达的2026年新增限额，也有可能指明 年一季度靠前发行。从以往实际落实情况来看，明年一季度靠前发行的可能性更大。不过，考虑到今年 置换债额度基本发行完毕且四季度地方债整体供给压力较小，将明年部分置换地方政府隐性债务的额度 提前在今年四季度发行的可能性也无法排除。若提前发行，将有利于地方政府腾挪出更多资金去搞发 展、搞建设，从而释放地方政府在基建投资等方面的稳增长动能，稳定四季度经济运行。 财政部部长蓝佛安在9月12日举行的国新办新闻发布会上介绍，将继续落实好一揽子化债举措，提前下 达部分2026年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用化债额度，多措并举化解存量隐性债务。 （上接1版） 在张依群看来，为加快缓解地方政府偿债压力和降低隐债风险，可以考虑将明年部分置换债纳入今年底 前发行，将化解隐债风险节奏适度提前，不仅可以极大缓解地方财政收支紧张压力，还可以释放稳经 济、促增长、强预期的积极信号，有效激发和调动市场要素活跃度，为"十五五"开局打下良好基础。 ...

◎记者 李苑 上海证券报记者梳理专项债券信息网披露数据发现，截至目前，今年地方债发行已逾8.5万亿元。其 中，新增专项债36795亿元，新增一般债6444亿元。"特殊"新增专项债发行规模远超去年安排的8000亿 元额度。 中国财政学会绩效专委会副主任委员张依群在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，今年地方债发行进度保 持总体平稳、快中有进的态势，特别是地方置换债发行进度基本完成，新增债券发行和经济增长基本保 持同步，为经济持续向好发挥了关键作用。 "今年以来，地方债发行同比高增，是积极财政政策靠前发力的体现。从新增专项债资金投向来看，基 建领域仍是主要投向。"东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳对上海证券报记者表示。 企业预警通数据显示，今年前三季度，地方政府发行的用于项目建设的2.5万亿元新增专项债项目中， 约28%投向市政和产业园基础设施，约18%投向交通基础设施，约14%投向土地储备，约12%投向保障 性安居工程，约12%投向医疗卫生、文化旅游、教育等社会事业，约6%投向农林水利等。 近年来地方置换债发行明显增多。根据去年11月全国人大常委会表决通过的议案，除了安排6万亿元地 方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务，从20 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 09 月 29 日 年内地方债发行还剩多少 ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 1961 亿元，净融资增加。本周地方债发行量为 1961 亿元，偿还量为 736 亿元，净融资为 1225 亿元。发行债券中，新增一般 债 56 亿元，新增专项债 1496 亿元，再融资一般债 58 亿元，再融资专项债 350 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 30Y 地方债发行占比最高（38%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 84%，与上周相比有所增加。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行占比分 别为 8%、14%、8%、25%和 38%，其中 30Y 地方债发行占比上升较多，环比 上升约 16 个百分点；7Y 和 10Y 地方债发行占比下降较多，环比分别下降均约 12 和 11 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 23.9bp，较上周有所走阔。其中 15Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 27.6bp。本周 7Y 和 10Y 地方债加权平 均发行利差收窄，其余期限地方债加权平均发行利差均有所走阔。本周区域分 化较大，吉林地方债加权平均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds remains strong, with a focus on special bonds for debt replacement, stabilizing the real estate market, and funding government investment projects [1][3][5]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In August, the issuance of local government bonds reached 977.6 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 486.6 billion yuan, representing about half of the total [1]. - From January to August, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 3.26 trillion yuan, which is 74% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated in recent months, with amounts of 443.2 billion yuan, 527.1 billion yuan, 616.9 billion yuan, and 486.6 billion yuan from May to August [3]. Group 2: Debt Replacement and Financial Management - Over 40% of the new special bonds issued in August were allocated for government stock investment projects, primarily for debt replacement [1][3]. - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.93 trillion yuan from January to August, with only about 70 billion yuan remaining for the year [1][3]. - The total issuance of special bonds for debt replacement from January to August was 9.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 30% of all new special bonds issued [3]. Group 3: Funding Allocation and Project Focus - The funds from new special bonds are primarily directed towards project construction, including municipal infrastructure, transportation, and social services [3][4]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 324 billion yuan issued across ten provinces from January to August [4]. - Special bonds for "stabilizing the real estate market" amounted to approximately 595 billion yuan from January to August, making it the second-largest category of funding after municipal infrastructure [5]. Group 4: Support for Government Investment Funds - A significant portion of the special bonds issued in August was directed towards government investment funds to support technological innovation and emerging industries [7][8]. - Various provinces, including Beijing and Shanghai, have issued special bonds to inject capital into government investment funds, with amounts ranging from 50 billion yuan to 100 billion yuan [7][8]. - The shift in the use of special bonds towards supporting strategic emerging industries reflects a broader trend of reallocating funds from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and innovation-driven projects [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in August reached 977.6 billion yuan, maintaining strong momentum despite a decline compared to June and July, with new special bonds accounting for about half of the total issuance [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - From January to August, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 3.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 74% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, with a notable acceleration in issuance in recent months [2][1] - In August, over 40% of the new special bonds were allocated for government existing investment projects, termed "debt reduction" funds, with a total of 2.129 trillion yuan issued for this purpose [2] - The issuance of special bonds for land reserve reached 600 billion yuan in August, with ten provinces issuing over 320 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds [1][3] Group 2: Debt Reduction and Project Funding - The demand for "debt reduction" remains significant, with 30% of the new special bonds issued from January to August allocated for this purpose, totaling 9.68 trillion yuan [2] - The primary use of new special bond funds, excluding "debt reduction," was for project construction, including municipal infrastructure, transportation, and social projects [2] Group 3: Land Reserve and Housing Market Stabilization - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 3.24 trillion yuan issued by ten provinces from January to August, aimed at recovering idle land and alleviating financial pressure on developers [3] - Some provinces are also initiating projects to acquire existing residential properties, with 32 projects reported across four provinces, primarily funded by special bonds [4][5] Group 4: Support for Innovation and Emerging Industries - A significant trend in August was the issuance of special bonds to support government investment funds, enhancing support for local technological innovation and strategic emerging industries [6] - Various provinces, including Beijing and Shanghai, issued special bonds for government investment funds, indicating a shift in investment focus from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and emerging sectors [7][6] Group 5: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the increased investment in strategic emerging industries through special bonds is a necessary shift to adapt to high-quality economic development and innovation-driven growth [7][8] - The potential for growth in strategic emerging industries is highlighted, with expectations for positive contributions to GDP and tax revenue, indicating a favorable outlook for the effectiveness of these investments [8]

Report Title - 9 月地方债计划发行 7658 亿——政府债周报（8/31） [1][4] Report Core View - 报告对 8 月 25 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债发行情况进行复盘与预告，同时展示特殊债发行进展 [2][4][5] Report Key Points 地方债发行情况 - 9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债披露发行 933.91 亿元，其中新增债 178.37 亿元（新增专项债 178.37 亿元），再融资债 755.54 亿元 [2][4] - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债共发行 3515.97 亿元，其中新增债 2232.89 亿元（新增一般债 353.10 亿元，新增专项债 1879.79 亿元），再融资债 1283.08 亿元 [2][5] 特殊债发行进展 - 截至 8 月 31 日，第四轮特殊再融资债共披露 44093.73 亿元，2025 年已披露 20208.48 亿元，下周新增披露 0.00 亿元，披露规模前三为江苏 5647.00 亿元、湖南 2787.32 亿元、河南 2556.26 亿元 [6] - 截至 8 月 31 日，2025 年特殊新增专项债共披露 4407.33 亿元，2023 年以来共披露 16312.46 亿元，披露规模前三为江苏 2102.35 亿元、湖北 1287.69 亿元、新疆 1188.60 亿元；2025 年披露规模前三为江苏 951.00 亿元、河北 391.43 亿元、湖北 369.13 亿元 [6] 地方债净供给与发行进度 - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债净供给 2435 亿元，9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债预告净供给 367 亿元 [12][13][19] - 截至 8 月 31 日，新增一般债发行进度 77.60%，新增专项债发行进度 74.18% [12][24] 特殊债发行统计 - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊再融资债统计情况，包含四轮发行额及各省市数据 [28][29] - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊新增专项债统计情况，包含 2023 - 2025 年各省市数据 [31][32] 地方债投资与交易 - 展示地方债一二级利差情况 [35][36] - 展示分区域二级利差情况，涉及多个省市不同时间数据 [37] 新增专项债投向 - 涉及新增专项债投向及项目投向逐月统计 [11][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and regional characteristics in the primary market, as well as the trading volume, price fluctuations, and regional differences in the secondary market [10][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - **Issuance Scale**: Last week (August 18 - 22, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, including 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. As of August 22, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in August reached 55 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6% of the monthly local bond issuance [10]. - **Fund Use**: "Special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project revenue" are the main areas for special bond fund investment [10]. - **Pricing**: The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 23BP, 22BP, and 19BP respectively [17]. - **Regional Differences**: In August, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei, Hunan, and Jiangsu were the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangsu's issuance scale of local bonds with a term of 7 years and less exceeded 50 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Ningxia, Gansu, and Jilin were above 2.2% [20]. 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Price Fluctuations**: Last week, the weekly fluctuations of the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes were a decline of 0.56% and 1.03% respectively, with a larger decline than the same - term treasury bonds and the same performance as ultra - long - term credit bonds [23]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Sichuan government bonds decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with a weekly decrease of 160 transactions. The trading volumes of local bonds in Guangxi and Zhejiang increased marginally [23]. - **Trading Income**: The average trading terms of government bonds in Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan were over 25 years, and the average trading income was basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - From August 25th to August 31st, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 351.597 billion yuan, including 223.289 billion yuan of new bonds (35.31 billion yuan of new general bonds and 187.979 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 128.308 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (65.693 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 62.615 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][4]. - From August 18th to August 24th, the actual issuance of local government bonds is 369.15 billion yuan, including 248.807 billion yuan of new bonds (9.539 billion yuan of new general bonds and 239.268 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 120.343 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (46.873 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 73.47 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Government Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From August 18th to August 24th, the net supply of local government bonds is 208.8 billion yuan [13]. - **Comparison between Plan and Actual Issuance**: In July, there are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds. In August, there are also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][20]. - **Net Supply of Local Government Bonds**: The forecasted net supply of local government bonds from August 25th to August 31st is 243.5 billion yuan [18]. - **Issuance Progress of New Bonds**: As of August 24th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 71.67%, and that of new special bonds is 69.54% [28]. - **Net Supply of Refinancing Bonds**: As of August 24th, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities is presented in the report [28]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of August 24th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 4409.373 billion yuan, with 2020.848 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 29.123 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu, Hunan, and Henan [6]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of August 24th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 440.733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 1631.246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report presents the primary and secondary spreads of local government bonds and the secondary spreads by region [39][40]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The report shows the investment directions of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From August 11th to August 17th, local government bonds issued a total of 9.1432 billion yuan, including 4.9356 billion yuan in new bonds (3.0321 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1.9034 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.2076 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (2.8632 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.3445 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds). From August 18th to August 24th, local government bonds are expected to issue 36.915 billion yuan, including 24.8807 billion yuan in new bonds (953.9 million yuan in new general bonds and 23.9268 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 12.0343 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (4.6873 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 7.347 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4][5] - As of August 17th, the fourth round of special refinancing bonds has a total disclosed amount of 435.5743 billion yuan, with 196.7218 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 9.164 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the fourth - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (56.47 billion yuan), Hunan (27.8732 billion yuan), and Shandong (24.1398 billion yuan). As of August 17th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 44.0733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 163.1246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (21.0235 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (11.886 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (9.51 billion yuan), Hebei (3.9143 billion yuan), and Hubei (3.6913 billion yuan) [6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - From August 11th to August 17th, the net supply of local government bonds was - 1.37 billion yuan; from August 18th to August 24th, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 20.88 billion yuan [10][15] - A comparison of the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in July and August is presented, showing differences in the issuance of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [13][17] - The monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local government bonds are also shown [21] Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 17th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 70.47%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.10% [25] - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local government bond maturities as of August 17th is presented [25] Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 17th, the statistics of special refinancing bonds show the issuance amounts in different rounds for various provinces and municipalities [29] - As of August 17th, the statistics of special new special bonds show the issuance amounts from 2023 to 2025 for various provinces and municipalities [31] Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [36] - The second - level spreads of local government bonds in different regions are presented, showing the spread changes in different regions from May to August 2025 [39] New Special Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [42]