第 536 期 为持续提升发行规范，交易商协会发布以下提示：一、严格落实分销信息线上录入要求。二、做好撤标报备工作。三、规范开展申购环节信息留痕。四、严 格落实主承销商团机制相关要求。五、持续提升发行信息披露质量。 宏观动态 上海清算所：截至2025年末，债券托管规模50万亿元 2026-01-09 焦点关注 规范债务融资工具发行！交易商协会发布5项提示 交易商协会发布《关于进一步规范债务融资工具发行工作的业务提示》称，在近期监测中发现部分机构存在未按要求录入分销信息、未就撤标情况进行报 备、单期主承销商家数不满足自律规则要求等问题。 1月8日，上海清算所召开2026年工作会议，总结公司2025年工作，部署2026年工作。会议指出，2025年，集中清算业务规模819万亿元，其中中央对手清算 业务272万亿元，分别同比增长13.6%和29%。截至2025年末，债券托管规模50万亿元，同比增长12.6%。 区域热点 郑州市城投企业债务风险研究报告 辽宁省拟发行170亿元特殊再融资债，用于置换存量隐性债务 财政部拟发行1670亿元记账式附息国债 财政部发布通知，拟发行2026年记账式附息（一期）国债。本期国债为1年 ...

据山东省财政厅披露的信息，1月5日，山东省发行了723.81亿元地方政府债券，成为全国今年首个发行 地方债的省份。 连日来，包括山东省在内的全国27个省市密集披露2026年一季度拟发地方债规模，合计约2.02万亿元。 【大河财立方 记者 秦龙】2026年地方政府债券年度发行工作正式启动。 对此，东方金诚研究发展部高级分析师冯琳对大河财立方记者表示，截至目前，已披露地方债计划发行 规模超过2万亿元，尽管仍低于去年一季度地方债实际发行规模2.8万亿元，但与历年同期相比明显偏 高，且预计实际发行规模将高于这一水平，这是今年更加积极的财政政策靠前发力的具体体现。 一季度2万亿地方债发行开启 据企业预警通数据统计，截至1月5日，已有27个省市发布一季度地方债发行计划，规模合计为20201.01 亿元，其中新增一般债1467.4亿元、新增专项债6713.97亿元、再融资一般债3078.22亿元、再融资专项 债8713.56亿元、未披露类型再融资债227.86亿元，分别占计划发行总规模的7.26%、33.24%15.24%、 43.13%和1.13%。 分地区来看，有7个省市计划发行规模超1000亿元，分别为四川省（188 ...

Group 1: Local Government Bonds - Shandong Province issued 723.81 billion yuan in local government bonds, marking the first issuance in the country for the year [2] - The issuance included 467.72 billion yuan in new special bonds and 256.09 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds, focusing on investment in new projects [2] - The Ministry of Finance established a dedicated Debt Management Department to enhance government debt management, which was previously fragmented [2][3] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - In 2025, China approved 76 innovative drugs, significantly surpassing the 48 approved in 2024, with domestic drugs accounting for 85.5% of the total [4] - The total value of authorized transactions for innovative drugs exceeded 130 billion USD, with over 150 transactions, setting a new record [4] - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry has seen substantial growth, particularly in innovative drugs, supported by reforms in drug approval processes and enhanced intellectual property protections [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Six major listed car manufacturers reported their 2025 sales, with BYD leading at 4.6024 million units, a 7.73% increase, followed by SAIC and Geely [6] - The growth in sales was driven primarily by the expansion of electric vehicles, with BYD's electric vehicle sales surpassing Tesla for the first time [6][7] - The competitive landscape in the automotive market is intensifying, with companies focusing on optimizing product structures and expanding overseas [7] Group 4: Oil Market - OPEC+ decided to maintain stable oil production levels, postponing planned increases due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [8] - Despite Venezuela's significant oil reserves, production remains low due to insufficient investment, limiting its impact on global supply [8][9] - The global oil market faces challenges in stabilizing prices amid concerns of overproduction and geopolitical factors [9] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - In 2025, 385 Hong Kong stocks saw over 100% growth, with 14 stocks increasing more than tenfold, indicating a strong market performance [14] - The increase in "red stocks" reflects a growing willingness to assign long-term value to internet giants and a high enthusiasm for growth sectors [15] - The A-share market opened positively in 2026, with significant gains across various sectors, particularly in insurance and AI applications [16][17] Group 6: Consumer Products - Prices for certain LABUBU products in the second-hand market have dropped significantly, indicating a shift in supply and demand dynamics [10][11] - The price decline is attributed to increased production by the company, which aims to balance consumer demand with product scarcity [11] Group 7: Technology and AI - Samsung plans to double the number of mobile devices equipped with Google's Gemini AI system, aiming to regain market share in the smartphone sector [12][13] - The integration of AI into various products, including home appliances, highlights a trend towards combining hardware and software solutions [13]

（上接1版） 在广发证券资深宏观分析师吴棋滢看来，用于化债的特殊再融资专项债进一步前倾，可为基建类专项债 腾出发行时间，有望加快建设节奏。但需要注意的是，基建类专项债的发行节奏更取决于地方项目筹备 情况和建设意愿。 中央经济工作会议提出，"优化地方政府专项债券用途管理"，引发市场关注。去年以来，随着"自审自 发"试点不断深化，地方专项债投向领域正不断扩围，项目申报周期也明显缩短，地方在发债上的自主 权也大幅提升。 吴棋滢称，预计这一优化方向主要是将专项债作资本金时的投向进一步放宽，以增加专项债的带动作 用；且通过调整"自审自发"试点范围，以调动各省建设积极性。 "目前来看，专项债'自审自发'将维持当前试点范围，以进一步优化并验证试点效果。"冯琳认为，随着 试点地区在项目审核、资金管理和风险防范等方面的机制趋于成熟，试点地区扩围并带动专项债发行使 用效率持续提升将是大势所趋。 冯琳预计，今年一季度发行高峰预计将出现在1月下旬和3月上旬，而全年的发行高峰可能会在二季度， 三季度供给规模将有所回落但仍处较高水平，四季度地方债发行进入收尾阶段，但不排除视经济运行情 况推出盘活地方债务结存限额等增量政策的可能。 ...

除了上述新增债务限额之外，此前财政部已经提前下达了地方政府2万亿元用于化解存量隐性债务的再 融资债券额度，在财政部要求地方靠前化债背景之下，预计2026年2万亿元化债额度与2025年相似，大 多数在上半年完成发行。 根据企业预警通数据，截至目前已有四川、山东、江苏、云南、江西、湖南、广西、北京、吉林、安 徽、福建等27个省份披露了2026年一季度发债计划，发债总额约2万亿元。 2026年地方政府发债筹资拉开序幕。 根据山东省财政厅披露信息，1月5日，山东省发行723.81亿元地方政府债券（下称"地方债"），而这是 今年全国首个发行地方债的省份，也由此宣告2026年地方债正式启动发行。 在地方财政收支矛盾较大背景下，地方政府重大项目建设及偿还旧债资金，愈加依赖通过发行政府债券 形式筹集资金。而为了尽早发挥地方债资金对稳投资、扩内需、补短板的重要作用，推动2026年经济平 稳运行，去年底财政部已经提前下达了部分2026年新增地方债限额，这也使得地方像前些年一样，1月 初就启动发债，以支持重大项目建设来稳投资稳经济，以及偿还旧债来缓释债务风险。 从各方披露信息来看，2026年一季度地方债发行规模预计会超过2万亿元。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 884 亿 ——政府债周报（01/04） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1 月 5 日-1 月 11 日地方债披露发行 1176.64 亿元。其中新增债 884.34 亿元（新增一般债 10.00 亿元，新增专项债 874.34 亿元），再融资债 292.30 亿元（再融资一般债 0.00 亿元，再融资专 项债 292.30 亿元）。 12 月 29 日-1 月 4 日地方债共发行 260.00 亿元。其中新增债 145.00 亿元（新增一般债 0.00 亿元，新增专项债 145.00 亿元），再融资债 115.00 亿元（再融资一般债 85.00 亿元，再融资专 项债 30.00 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 2 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观经济量化指数周报 20260104 经济增长实现"开门红"的三条线索 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 元旦假期数据： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《2026 年财政可能有两个超预期》 2025-12-30 《超万亿美元贸易顺差流向哪里？》 2025-12-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 49.92%，较上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.83%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.85%，较 上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 消费指数为 4 ...

财通证券分析师孙彬彬报告称，截至12月30日，共有21个地区披露2026年1月地方债发行计划，规模合 计7712亿元，而这些地区在2025年1月计划发行规模为2846亿元。当前财政收支面临一定压力，稳增长 也存在紧迫性，且项目期限逐渐拉长，地方政府大概率不会因为二级市场利率波动而轻易推迟发债或缩 短发行期限。粗略对比，2026年一季度地方债发行期限有所下降，但考虑到样本有限且实际发行与计划 通常有出入，不能简单认为发行期限将显著缩短。央行对利率诉求是稳，过去经验显示市场担忧供给的 阶段都是做左侧的好时机。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025 and the planned issuance in 2026Q1, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 2 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 31.2 billion yuan. The issuance volume was 2 billion yuan, and the repayment volume was 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan. Only new special bonds were issued, amounting to 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (59%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 84%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16%, 25%, and 59% respectively, with the 20 - year bond proportion increasing significantly and the 10 - year bond proportion decreasing by about 11 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, a total of 2.3097 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds were disclosed for issuance, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou had 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively in special bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of the end of this week, 1.3668 trillion yuan of special special bonds were disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, and Yunnan issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 112.7 billion yuan, 76 billion yuan, and 73 billion yuan respectively [2][13][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 24.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25.3bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds widened. Hunan and Guangdong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [1][24]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 17.1% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.5% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volumes in October and November, the total disclosed issuance volume for the fourth quarter was about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter were 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Some regions also disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance volume of about 1.68 trillion yuan, including 692.5 billion yuan in January. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter were 619.1 billion yuan and 1.0618 trillion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 26 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 8.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 17.4 billion yuan, a 20.6 - billion - yuan increase compared to this week [3][28][30]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year bonds widened, while those of other - term bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year bonds reached 19.5bp and 16.4bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantiles in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 1 - year bonds were relatively high, at 83% and 61% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak and medium - strength regions were also relatively high, ranging from 13bp to 16bp [5][33][34]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of Xinjiang's local government bonds was large, reaching 37.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was relatively high, reaching 2.9%. The total trading volume of local government bonds this week was 295.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.54% [5][39].

记者丨 余纪昕 编辑丨方海平 近日，各地密集披露2026年一季度拟发地方债规模。 据DM数据，截至12月25日发稿时， 已有18地(省、自治区、直辖市、计划单列市)公布明年一 季度地方债发行计划，披露的发行计划合计达1.37万亿元。 明年的地方债发行有何趋势亮点？ 首先，从目前数据来看，2026年一季度地方债发行计划规模整体较大，并呈现出明显的月度波 动： 1月计划发行约5977.95亿元，2月大幅回落至约1123.65亿元，而3月则反弹至约6629.72 亿元。 分地区观察，截至发稿时， 已披露明年一季度计划发债规模排名前三的依次是： 四川（1887 亿元）、江西（1285亿元）和广西（1113.03亿元），其中四川是目前计划发债相对最多的地 区。 发行节奏上，各地具体时点上的安排也值得关注。由目前已披露的情况统计，总体发行高峰预 计将出现在2026年1月下旬和3月上旬，这两个时段的地方债发行计划合计超3000亿元，新债 一级市场或将形成相对集中的"供给高峰"。 中证鹏元评级研发部高级董事吴志武向21世纪经济报道表示，相比2025年一季度实际发行情 况，明年一季度的地方债拟发行计划表现出以下亮点： 2026 ...