Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - This week reached the "September 3rd" critical window period, with index trends mainly driven by sentiment. Market expectations cooled, long - term interest rates declined, and there was a value regression after structural overheating in various sectors. Leveraged funds had continuous net outflows, and broad - based indexes fell with shrinking trading volume. The U.S. manufacturing industry was in trouble, the labor market cooling trend was confirmed, and the certainty of a September interest rate cut increased. In terms of basis, the discount widened since the end of August, and the basis of JH and IF weakened slightly this week, while that of IC and IM recovered [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH and IF will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC and IM will weaken [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance This Week - After structural overheating in various sectors, there was a value regression. Sectors with concentrated financing and institutional funds faced corrections. Concepts such as optical modules and national defense and military industry had large correction amplitudes, while battery and energy storage sectors led the rise. Leveraged funds had continuous net outflows, and the margin balance declined daily after peaking on September 1st. Broad - based indexes fell with shrinking trading volume, ending four consecutive weekly declines. Small - cap stocks broke through support levels, while large - cap indexes were relatively resilient. The weekly decline of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 was about 1%, the CSI 1000 declined by 2.6%, and the STAR 50 declined by more than 5% [2]. - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for six consecutive months, the employment index was at its weakest level since the pandemic, JOLTS employment data was not optimistic, ADP employment growth slowed significantly, and the labor market cooling trend was confirmed, increasing the certainty of a September interest rate cut [2]. - Since the end of August, the discount has continued to widen. The basis of JH and IF weakened slightly this week compared with last week, while the basis of IC and IM recovered. The annualized discounts were around 8% and 9.5% respectively, and the discount inversion of IC and IM was lifted. The current term structure of each variety has a higher near - end, and near - end hedging is the main strategy. As the basis of each contract basically returned to the normal position, the profit of the spot - futures arbitrage strategy was realized [2]. Next - Week Forecast - The model predicts that the basis movement directions of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week are: strengthen, strengthen, weaken, and weaken respectively [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the decline of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed for two consecutive months, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased significantly year - on - year, playing a leading role [2]. - Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, stimulating the real estate sector to lead the gains. The trend of real estate stopping decline and stabilizing may be further strengthened [2]. - The State Council issued an "Artificial Intelligence + Action Opinion", and the State Council Information Office press conference stated that policies to expand service consumption would be introduced to stimulate new growth in service consumption [2]. - In the overseas market, the US GDP in the second quarter was revised upwards due to a significant increase in fixed - asset investment, while the PCE price index remained the same as the initial value [2]. - This week, the market trading volume reached a high again, with the total A - share market achieving a turnover of 3.2 trillion yuan in two trading days, ranking second in history. Leveraged funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 883 billion yuan this week after a net inflow of over 900 billion yuan last week [2]. - The speculation in micro - cap stocks took a slight rest, the micro - cap index led the decline among core indices, and the market of the STAR Market and ChiNext continued. Overall, mid - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks, and large - cap stocks outperformed micro - and small - cap stocks. The CSI 500 rose more than 3%, leading the core broad - based indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen [2]. - In terms of basis, the basis dropped rapidly during the gap - up on Monday this week, indicating weak sentiment on the futures side. IH and IF were still in a slight premium state, while the annualized discounts of IC and IM returned to around 8% and 11%, respectively, falling into the lower quantile range of history. The near - end of the term structure declined, and the hedging cost - effectiveness of far - month contracts increased. There was still some profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage in near - month contracts, but it had been significantly compressed, and the impact of transaction cost wear was large. The cost - effectiveness of cash - and - carry arbitrage at the current position declined significantly [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Situation This Week - Industrial profit: The decline of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed for two consecutive months, and high - tech manufacturing profits increased significantly year - on - year [2]. - Real estate policy: Shanghai optimized real estate policies, and Beijing and Shanghai implemented policies to stabilize the property market, with the real estate market showing a trend of stopping decline [2]. - Policy on service consumption: The State Council issued an "Artificial Intelligence + Action Opinion", and policies to expand service consumption will be introduced [2]. - Overseas market: The US GDP in the second quarter was revised upwards due to fixed - asset investment growth, and the PCE price index remained unchanged [2]. - Market trading volume: The total A - share market achieved a turnover of 3.2 trillion yuan in two trading days, ranking second in history [2]. - Fund flow: Leveraged funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 883 billion yuan this week after over 900 billion yuan last week [2]. - Stock index performance: Mid - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks, and large - cap stocks outperformed micro - and small - cap stocks. The CSI 500 rose more than 3% [2]. - Basis situation: The basis dropped rapidly on Monday, IH and IF were slightly in premium, IC and IM annualized discounts returned to around 8% and 11%, far - month contract hedging cost - effectiveness increased, and near - month contract cash - and - carry arbitrage profit space was compressed [2] Basis Forecast for Next Week - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week [3] Recent Forecast Conclusion - There are historical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data in the text [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Core View - Fed's July meeting minutes show increasing internal divergence and no hint of a September rate cut, while the unexpectedly high US manufacturing PMI in August may change market expectations for a September rate cut [2] - Domestic policy intensity has marginally converged recently, and the main driving forces for the index are the "93 consensus" and institutional clustering. A - shares are not affected by the continuous decline of Hong Kong and US stocks due to the support of mainland margin - trading funds. The margin balance has increased significantly, and the total A - share trading volume has soared. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 index was the strongest this week, with a gain of over 13%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3800 points [2] - The rise of the index this week has further pushed up the basis of various varieties. The annualized discounts of IC and IM have converged to 5.5% and 6.7%, and the term structure near - end and inter - period spreads have increased. There is a large profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage in IH and IF September contracts, and the annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts of IC and IM is only about 2%, which may lead to an increase in the scale of neutral strategies [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen, remain flat, weaken, and weaken respectively next week [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Background - The Fed's internal divergence is increasing, and it is facing a trade - off between inflation and employment risks. The unexpectedly high US manufacturing PMI in August may affect the expected September rate cut [2] - Domestic policy intensity has marginally converged, and the main driving forces for the index are the "93 consensus" and institutional clustering. Geopolitical situation is calm, and A - shares are supported by mainland margin - trading funds [2] Market Performance - The margin balance has increased significantly, with a net purchase of over 80 billion this week. The total A - share trading volume is about 2.5 trillion per day. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 index was the strongest this week, with a gain of over 13%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3800 points [2] Basis and Spread - The rise of the index has further pushed up the basis of various varieties. The annualized discounts of IC and IM have converged to 5.5% and 6.7%, and the term structure near - end and inter - period spreads have increased [2] - The September contracts of IH and IF have an annualized premium of over 6% and 7% respectively, with a large profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage. The annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts of IC and IM is only about 2% [2] Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen, remain flat, weaken, and weaken respectively next week [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, domestic financial data declined due to seasonal factors, but the market didn't focus on it. The personal consumer loan interest - subsidy policy had limited impact. The main market drivers were news - related, like the shutdown of CATL's important lithium mine boosting the ChiNext and Sino - US chip competition strengthening domestic substitution expectations and driving up the STAR Market. The Shanghai - Shenzhen Composite Index and STAR Market Index led the gains among core indices [2]. - Overseas, the Stockholm economic and trade talks between China and the US postponed reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days, having a small impact on the market. The US July CPI was lower than expected, while the PPI exceeded expectations, causing repeated expectations of a September interest rate cut in the US, large fluctuations in the US dollar index, and increased disturbances to global assets [2]. - Leveraged funds continued to flow in this week, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion on Monday and then having a net inflow of over 40 billion. The market trading volume increased rapidly, with the total A - share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion for three consecutive days. The market divergence widened, and the excess returns of heavy - weight stocks relative to the index were significant. The performance of individual stocks was far inferior to the prosperity shown by the index. The Shanghai Composite Index repeatedly touched the key level of 3,700 points and then fell back, losing the 3,700 - point level again at the end - of - day call auction on Friday [2]. - Large - cap sectors were still dragged down by sectors such as banks and coal. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 had small gains, while small - and medium - cap stocks performed better. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose nearly 4%, and micro - cap stocks fell continuously, significantly underperforming small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - In terms of basis, the annualized basis of each variety strengthened significantly. IF returned to a premium state, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM converged from 10% to around 7%, moving out of the historical bottom range. As the basis strengthened, the near - month contracts in the term structure rose significantly. After the August contracts expired, the September contracts had obvious hedging cost advantages. The September contracts of IH and IF had large premiums, providing large profit margins for cash - and - carry arbitrage. Meanwhile, the inter - term spread increased significantly this week, and the inter - term reverse arbitrage had realized considerable returns, with the strategy's cost - effectiveness further declining [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model's judgment on the movement directions of the bases of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [3] Group 3: Recent Forecast Conclusion - There are historical data on the real basis changes and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusions are clearly summarized from the data presented [4]

Group 1: Core Views - Recent leveraged funds continue to flow in, with the total margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion this week. The market sentiment remains optimistic, but the increase in the ratio of margin trading to market capitalization is limited. The 2 trillion mark has stronger signaling meaning than practical meaning and may trigger reverse trading, weakening risk appetite [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", creating credit demand for banks through monetary structured tools, supporting the manufacturing industry, and stimulating a rapid rebound in the banking sector [2]. - US employment data released last week plunged, increasing market bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has continued to decline to around 98, and foreign capital has replenished A - share positions, supporting the sentiment in the mainland market after the A - share index correction [2]. - This week's total A - share trading volume slightly decreased compared to last week, with daily trading around 1.6 trillion. Most broad - based indices recovered last week's losses, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong. The CSI 1000 rose more than 2%, and together with the CSI 2000 and micro - cap stock indices, reached new highs for the year. Large - cap broad - based indices rose slightly more than 1% this week [2]. - The downward support for basis has weakened, and the intraday structured divergence in trends among varieties has increased. The risk appetite shown in the futures market has declined, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a slowdown in the index's upward rate or even a continuous adjustment [2]. - As of Friday, the annualized basis of each variety was basically the same as last week, with the annualized discounts of IC and IM still around 10% and 11% respectively [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - This week, there were many positive news and hotspots, and the market responded actively摆脱过去借利多高开低走的惯性, with a stronger risk preference. A-shares, except for the banking sector, all recorded certain gains. Overseas, the progress of tariff negotiations between the US and its trading partners accelerated, reducing global uncertainties and further boosting market risk appetite. The A-share trading volume increased, and margin trading funds continued to flow in. The mid-cap index outperformed this week, and all broad-based indexes had achieved five consecutive weekly gains. From a futures perspective, the marginal long and short forces were basically balanced, and the factors suppressing risk preference were few. The stock index futures showed a characteristic of rising with the market but not falling, indicating an optimistic sentiment in the futures market. The basis of IH and IF weakened compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM converged compared to last week, still at historically low levels [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - There were many positive news and hotspots this week, and the market showed a buying atmosphere at low levels. The "anti-involution" market spread, and A-shares, except for the banking sector, all rose. Overseas, the US tariff policies with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines were implemented, and the third round of China-US trade negotiations was to be held next week. The A-share trading volume exceeded 1.9 trillion for the first time in five months, and margin trading funds continued to flow in. The mid-cap index outperformed, and all broad-based indexes had five consecutive weekly gains. In the futures market, the marginal long and short forces were balanced, and the stock index futures showed an optimistic sentiment. The basis of IH and IF weakened, and the discounts of IC and IM converged [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, weakening, strengthening respectively [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - The document provides the comparison data of the real basis change and the predicted basis change of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusion is summarized [4][5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report In June, domestic financial data showed marginal improvement in real - sector financing demand under policy stimulus. The year - on - year decrease in medium - and long - term corporate loans ended, and there was a slight increase in short - term and medium - and long - term household loans. National subsidies and policy - based financial instruments may drive continuous credit expansion. The State Council executive meeting this week mentioned policies to strengthen the domestic cycle, with boosting domestic demand and the new energy industry as current policy priorities. The US Beige Book indicated a slight increase in economic activity but high uncertainty, along with a small decline in manufacturing activity and rising cost pressure. The US CPI rose as expected in June, and the market is most expecting a rate cut in September. Without negative news, market sentiment is positive, with daily trading volume of the entire A - share market around 1.5 trillion yuan and a net inflow of margin trading balance of about 30 billion yuan this week. The broad - based indices of Shanghai and Shenzhen recovered after a decline, and all four major broad - based indices had four consecutive weekly gains. This week, except for the relatively small increase of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, the mid - to small - cap and micro - cap indices had similar increases, with the 300 - 2000 indices rising 1% - 2%. In terms of basis, the index increase slowed down this week, and the basis fluctuated little, remaining basically the same as last week. IF returned to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM were around 8% and 11% respectively. Except for the expired July contracts, the term structure of other contracts was basically the same as last week, and a diversified term selection strategy could still be maintained [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Review - Policy stimulus led to marginal improvement in real - sector financing demand in June, with changes in corporate and household loans. National subsidies and policy - based financial instruments may drive credit expansion. The State Council executive meeting focused on policies to strengthen the domestic cycle [2] - The US Beige Book showed a slight increase in economic activity, high uncertainty, a decline in manufacturing, and rising cost pressure. The US CPI rose as expected in June, and the market anticipates a September rate cut [2] - Market sentiment was positive, with daily trading volume around 1.5 trillion yuan and a net inflow of margin trading balance of about 30 billion yuan. The broad - based indices recovered after a decline, and all four major broad - based indices had four consecutive weekly gains. Mid - to small - cap and micro - cap indices had similar increases, with the 300 - 2000 indices rising 1% - 2% [2] - In terms of basis, the index increase slowed, and the basis fluctuated little, remaining basically the same as last week. IF returned to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM were around 8% and 11% respectively. The term structure of non - expired contracts was basically the same as last week [2] Next Week's Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4]

Report Summary 1. Core View - This week, the on - site risk appetite was high but constrained by trade negotiations. The US sent tariff letters to multiple countries and postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st. There is still uncertainty in the global market for the remaining trading days in July. However, China and the US are still promoting negotiations based on the Geneva Agreement and London Conference, with relatively small impact on domestic assets [2]. - After the quantitative new rules were implemented on Monday, trading demand was briefly suppressed and then gradually released. The trading volume in the second half of the week increased rapidly, exceeding 1.7 trillion at the highest. The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was about 1.5 trillion, slightly higher than last week. The margin balance continued to rise, with a cumulative net inflow of over 20 billion this week, rising for four consecutive weeks since late June [2]. - Most industry sectors closed up this week, but the banking sector tumbled on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 3500 points and stood above 3500 points for two consecutive days. The Shanghai - Shenzhen broad - based indexes recorded three - consecutive - week losses, but the style reversed again. Small - and medium - cap stocks rose more this week, with the CSI 1000 rising over 2%, while large - cap stocks lagged with a gain of less than 1% [2]. - In terms of basis, as the index soared, the basis of each variety increased synchronously. The basis of each variety strengthened significantly compared with last week. IF returned to a premium state, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM converged to about 8% and 10% respectively. The term structure of each variety shifted up more in the near - end. With the July contracts approaching expiration, positions can be rolled over in advance. Except for the July contracts, the costs of other contracts are similar, and the term selection can be diversified between the near and far ends [2]. 2. Forecast for Next Week - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week, while the basis of IM will strengthen [4]. 3. Market Performance This Week - **Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was about 1.5 trillion, slightly higher than last week [2]. - **Margin Balance**: The margin balance continued to rise, with a cumulative net inflow of over 20 billion this week, rising for four consecutive weeks since late June [2]. - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 3500 points and stood above 3500 points for two consecutive days. The Shanghai - Shenzhen broad - based indexes recorded three - consecutive - week losses, but small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks [2]. - **Basis Performance**: The basis of each variety strengthened significantly compared with last week. IF returned to a premium state, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM converged to about 8% and 10% respectively. The term structure of each variety shifted up more in the near - end [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, influenced by multiple factors such as policy issuance, event announcements, and international situation changes, the market saw increased trading volume and rising indices. The base spreads of various varieties also showed an upward trend, and the term reversal strategy realized partial profits. The model predicts the movement directions of the base spreads of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Impact - Six ministries jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", covering five aspects of specific measures. The National New Office announced the September Victory in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression commemorative activities and parade plan, stimulating market bullish sentiment. Guotai Junan International was approved to provide virtual asset trading services such as cryptocurrencies, driving up the stock prices of Hong Kong and A-share brokerage and financial technology sectors, but the hype quickly cooled down [2] - The Middle - East situation eased with a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and the expectation of a US interest rate cut increased, promoting the rise of global stock markets and risk assets [2] Market Performance - The daily average trading volume was about 1.5 trillion, and the margin trading balance increased by over 20 billion. The broad - based indices showed three consecutive positive lines followed by continuous adjustments. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 2% this week. The gains of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 narrowed to less than 2% this week, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose about 4% [2] Base Spread Situation - As the index rose this week, the base spreads of various varieties increased, and the historical quantiles rose significantly. The annualized discounts of IC and IM for the current quarter narrowed to around 7% and 10% respectively, with the term structure still higher in the near - month contracts. The far - near inter - term spreads also increased significantly, and the term reversal strategy realized partial profits [2] Forecast for Next Week - The model predicts that the base spreads of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the base spread of IC will weaken [3]