在对保险、银行、零售及酒店业等多行业主要企业负责人的采访中，部分高管表示担忧，称若财政政策 继续加码增负，不仅会进一步削弱消费者信心，还将阻碍政府核心承诺的推进落地。更有企业明确表 示，若英国执意推进商业税率(一种财产税)上调等计划，将彻底暂停在英投资。 下文摘录了部分企业高管的具体看法： Vinci集团及GIP旗下盖特威克、爱丁堡、贝尔法斯特机场董事总经理Stewart Wingate 作为管理上述三大机场的英国区董事总经理，Wingate表示，若商业税率拟议上调方案落地，伦敦盖特 威克机场耗资22亿英镑的第二条跑道扩建项目将面临搁浅风险。 "我从业这么多年，从未见过如此幅度的大额成本上涨——这足以让我们重新评估投资计划，"执掌盖特 威克机场超过15年的Wingate强调，"当前我们面临的成本压力，可能会危及财政大臣本人重点推进的增 长项目。" 据悉，Wingate正联合其他英国机场呼吁政府将税率涨幅控制在40%以内，"我们得到的消息显示，涨幅 可能高达400%，这将实质性吞噬我们的绝大部分利润。" 随着英国财政大臣蕾切尔里夫斯即将公布新预算案，该国各大企业首席执行官已明确表态，若进一步加 重企业税负将采取 ...

钛媒体App 11月19日消息，英国通胀在七个月来首次回落，随着价格压力缓和，英国央行正在考虑是否 在圣诞节前降息。英国国家统计局数据显示，10月CPI同比上涨3.6%，低于9月的3.8%。这一数字略高 于市场经济学家预期的3.5%，但与英央行的预测一致。服务业通胀略降至4.5%，这一关键指标备受英 央行关注，也低于其预测。这些数据使得英央行在12月18日的下次会议上降息的可能性依然存在，此前 央行在本月早些时候选择按兵不动。然而，通往降息的道路仍面临重大阻碍，尤其是工党政府将在下周 公布秋季预算。财政大臣里夫斯承诺推出抑制高通胀的财政计划，并正在考虑一系列增税措施，这可能 令英央行的决策环境更加复杂。（广角观察） ...

Market Dynamics - The stock market momentum has weakened, with indices like Nasdaq dropping over 2% and European markets declining approximately 1% [1] - President Trump signed a bill approved by Congress, effectively ending the government shutdown, but the market seems to have already priced in this outcome [1] - The primary concern now is whether upcoming official data will support or oppose the Federal Reserve's further easing policies, particularly the expected rate cut in December [1] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a third risk management rate cut is not guaranteed, yet the market maintains a high certainty (about 70%) for this outcome [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 50% for the first time, as indicated by ICMarkets [3] - Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see attitude towards a December rate cut, opposing the October cut due to strong economic fundamentals and high inflation [3] - Cleveland Fed's Harmack reiterated support for pausing rate cuts next month, emphasizing that inflation concerns outweigh labor market worries [3] - The 30-year Treasury auction saw a tail of $25 billion, with long-end performance being weak, while U.S. Treasury yields generally rose by 2.2 to 5 basis points [3] Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate rebounded due to interest rate influences but faced resistance near 1.1630 due to U.S. risk aversion [4] - The dollar/yen momentum encountered resistance at the 155 mark, indicating a loss of support for the dollar index [4] - The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.096 against the dollar, marking its strongest level since October 2024, although weaker-than-expected monthly data limited further appreciation [4] - The euro to pound exchange rate rose to approximately 0.885, the highest since April 2023, amid speculation regarding the UK budget and tax rate adjustments [4] Employment and Economic Reports - The monthly employment report from KPMG and REC indicated the first growth in temporary worker paychecks in 16 months, while permanent job recruitment trends have slowed for the fourth consecutive month [5] - Despite economic weakness and uncertainty surrounding the government budget, employers remain cautious about new hiring [5] - A joint statement from the U.S. government and four Latin American countries announced a reduction in tariffs on various domestically produced goods, including bananas, coffee, and beef, aimed at alleviating the cost of living crisis [5]

Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced minimal growth in Q3, with GDP increasing by only 0.1%, down from 0.3% in Q2 and below the forecasted 0.2% [1][3] - In September alone, the economy contracted by 0.1%, as weak growth in the services sector was offset by a sharp decline in manufacturing [1] Jaguar Land Rover Incident - A significant factor impacting September's economic performance was a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, leading to a production halt of over five weeks and a nearly 30% drop in automotive manufacturing output [7] - This incident directly contributed to a 0.17 percentage point decline in GDP for September [7] Consumer and Business Sentiment - Consumer and business spending has been sluggish due to concerns over potential tax increases in the upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves [3][5] - The economic outlook is further dampened by expectations of significant tax hikes, which could reduce GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2026 [3] Trade Performance - UK exports to the US fell by 11.4% (approximately £500 million), reaching the lowest level since January 2022, largely due to tariffs imposed by the US [8][9] - Overall, UK exports decreased by 0.1% in Q3, while imports declined by 0.3% [11]

与此同时，英国财政部长里夫斯本周在 11 月 26 日的预算报告中为增税事宜奠定了基础，她指出需要做 出"艰难的抉择"以确保英国的财政状况保持稳定。 （原标题：增税与降息预期压顶，英镑看跌情绪创今年1月以来之最） 智通财经APP获悉，市场对英镑的前景愈发感到悲观，目前英镑已跌至数月来的最低点，交易员们担心 本月即将出台的预算法案对英国经济增长前景的提振作用甚微。而且期权市场显示，对英镑的悲观情绪 达到了自今年 1 月以来的最高水平，当时由于财政和货币政策存在不确定性，英国政府债券承压。 这在很大程度上反映了市场对英国央行可能在周四降息的预期，这将降低储户和投资者的收益，并意味 着对英镑的需求减少。目前市场预计英国央行本月降息的可能性约为 33%，而就在几周前这一概率几 乎为零，预计 2026 年上半年还将有两次降息。财政紧缩的预算虽然能遏制债券投机行为，但也会抑制 经济增长，这可能会导致更多的降息。 今年年初，投资者大多看好英镑。但随着英国经济和利率前景变得不明朗，这种信心有所减弱，期权市 场也反映出这一点。英镑一个月期权风险逆转指标(持有看涨期权与看跌期权成本之差)已降至-1.21个百 分点。这是自1月份以 ...

英国财政大臣里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）正为一项重大政策转向铺平道路，她暗示工党政府可能放弃其核心竞选承诺，通过提高税收来应对日益严 峻的财政挑战。 周二，里夫斯在一场演讲中表示，她的首要任务是降低借贷成本和通胀。这是迄今为止最清晰的暗示，即工党政府将不再恪守其避免上调主要税 种的承诺。 里夫斯称，自2024年7月首相斯塔默上台以来，世界已经发生了变化，工党政府肩负着比以往更重大的责任。这一表态预示着她将在11月26日向议 会提交预算时，可能提出加税的理由。市场对此反应不一，英国国债价格短暂上涨后回吐涨幅，英镑则跌至七个月低点。 这篇演讲本身就打破了传统，通常财政大臣在向议会正式提交预算前会尽可能地保持沉默。里夫斯此举意在为一个充满政治争议的财政方案争取 支持，该方案旨在填补高达350亿英镑的财政缺口，并为可能出现的增税措施提前"吹风"。 艰难的财政抉择 里夫斯正面临一系列极其棘手的财政难题。据估计，英国政府面临的财政缺口高达350亿英镑。 这一缺口的形成，源于高企的借贷成本、代价高昂的政策掉头（例如政府被迫搁置主要的福利开支削减计划），以及财政监督机构——预算责任 办公室（OBR）对经济增长预期的显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced that the upcoming autumn budget on November 26 will focus on controlling inflation and creating conditions for the Bank of England to lower key interest rates [1][2] Group 1: Budget and Economic Policy - The autumn budget aims to control government debt while ensuring public service spending [1] - Reeves emphasized that her decisions will focus on reducing inflation to support economic growth and improve living costs for the public [1] - There is a possibility of increasing household taxes, as many economists believe that under constrained fiscal space, tax hikes may be the only viable option to achieve debt reduction, maintain public services, and stabilize the macroeconomy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The market widely expects the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% during the meeting on November 7 [1] - Despite recent weak economic data opening the door for potential rate cuts, most economists believe policymakers will wait for more sustained evidence of cooling inflation and details from the autumn budget [2] - Current UK inflation is still nearly double the 2% target, leading to a cautious stance from the Bank of England [2] - Barclays and Goldman Sachs suggest that policymakers might consider a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to recent disappointing inflation, employment, and output data, although this expectation is not mainstream [2] - Investors are currently betting that the December 18 meeting will be a more likely window for rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising to nearly 60% [2] - The Bank of England faces challenges related to "data dependence" and "policy coordination," with short-term interest rate paths being influenced not only by inflation trends but also by the clarity of fiscal positions [2]

Group 1 - The UK labor market is experiencing a downturn, with a decrease of 8,000 employees in August, marking the seventh consecutive decline, which is slightly better than the economists' forecast of a 12,000 drop [1] - The wage growth rate, excluding bonuses, has slowed to 4.8%, the lowest in three years, down from 5% in the previous period [1] - The unemployment rate remains at a four-year high of 4.7%, while the number of job vacancies continues to decline [1] Group 2 - Inflation has reached an 18-month high, driven by rising food and energy costs, with the expected inflation rate at 3.8%, nearly double the Bank of England's target of 2% [2] - Traders have reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, with expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the base rate at 4% [2]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管英国财政大臣里夫斯推行了增税措施，但调查发现，英国企业信心在8月升至 近十年来最高水平，计划未来一年中招聘更多员工的企业比例有所上升。 劳埃德商业晴雨表显示，超过80%的受访企业表示，4月生效的工资税和最低工资上调对其招聘计划影 响有限。招聘意向已连续第四个月上升，62%的企业计划在未来12个月内增加员工。 劳埃德银行商业银行表示，尽管经济乐观情绪有所下降，但商业信心仍小幅上升。约35%的雇主计划将 工资提高4%或以上，比上月上升了10个百分点。计划在未来一年内提价的企业比例在8月升至67%，而 仅有2%的企业预计价格会下降。 与此同时，根据对1200家企业在8月前两周进行的调查，企业乐观情绪上升了2个百分点，达到54，为 2015年11月以来的最高水平。交易前景指标也有所改善，达到十年来的高点。 更为积极的前景伴随着企业提价意愿和大幅加薪意愿的增加。近四分之一的受访企业现在预计将加薪 4%，这表明企业正在将更高的用工成本转嫁给客户，而非员工。 这些调查结果将为里夫斯带来支持。她的增税举措此前因抑制增长和推高通胀而受到批评。然而，这些 数据也可能加剧英国央行决策者的担忧，他们正就未来降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, does not rule out the possibility of tax increases in the future [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a potential shift in fiscal policy that could impact various sectors and companies operating in the UK [1] - The mention of tax increases suggests that the government may be looking for ways to address budget deficits or fund public services [1] - This could lead to increased operational costs for businesses, affecting profitability and investment decisions [1]