原油-SC 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 准确地反映了本人的研究观 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 26 日 原油 美委冲突升级对原油影响分析 摘 要 2025 年 8 月下旬，加勒比海南部海域风云突变。美国以"打击 毒品走私"和"维护地区安全"为名，向委内瑞拉附近海域派遣了 一支远征打击群。这一大规模军事部署，表面上是针对所谓"太阳 贩毒集团"和"阿拉瓜火车"等犯罪组织，实则被广泛解读为美国 对委内瑞拉马杜罗政权的又一次"极限施压"。 宝城期货研究所 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）及国际能源机构的最新数据，委 内瑞拉拥有全球已探明石油储量最多的资源，总量高达约 3030 亿 桶，稳居世界首位。这一数字不仅超过了沙特阿拉伯，也使其成为 全球能源格局中不可忽视的关键一极。2025 年 7 月委内瑞拉原油 ...

又被特朗普摆了一道，求着美国取消制裁的莫迪，却被告知美代表取消访印。现实给印度上了血淋淋的一课：实力不够，就得被动挨打。 莫迪原本想着，特朗普在和普京会晤后，美国会取消因为印度进口俄罗斯石油，而对印度加征的25%关税。结果好消息没等到，却收到了一个噩耗：美国代 表不去印度了，美印关税谈判也就拉倒。至于啥时候恢复，美国也没给印度一个准信，大概意思就是等我通知吧。 据路透社消息，美国代表原计划在本月25号前往印度，商讨关税问题，安排了5天时间。 从这个行程安排上看，美国诚意好像还挺足，是奔着谈出个结果来的，不然也不会打算在印度停留这么久。 印度估计酒席都备好了，就等贵客驾到，谁知道美国放了鸽子。 值得注意的是，美方代表取消行程的时间点挺有意思的，正好就在美国对印关税落地前。根据特朗普设定的时间表，美国将在这个月27号，对印度加征关 税。 美方代表选择在这个时间点爽约，算算狠狠地羞辱了印度一把，就像一个大人拿着一只棒棒糖，在一个小孩眼前晃悠了许久，答应着要把棒棒糖给小孩，可 当小孩流口水的时候，大人提溜了棒棒糖走开了。 白宫也没有解释美方代表为啥取消行程，连应付一下印度都懒得做。说白了，特朗普给莫迪整这么一出，无非 ...

这份突如其来的"国书"，背后是韩国在中美博弈、经济困局和国内民意三重压力下的艰难抉择。 就在一个月前，李在明还以"优先处理美韩关税谈判"为 由，婉拒了中方盛情邀请的9月3日抗战胜利80周年阅兵观礼。更耐人寻味的是，他一面缺席北京的盛大庆典，一面高调宣布即将对美国和日本进行国事访 问。这一系列外交动作，令人捉摸不透。 在风云诡谲的国际棋局中，韩国正试图为自己撬开一道生存的缝隙。这道缝隙，或许就藏在韩国总统李在明那封秘密送往北京的亲笔信里。就在2024年8月 21日，当李在明的专机飞向华盛顿时，另一架飞机悄然降落在北京首都国际机场，搭载着一个肩负重任的总统特使团。 李在明的访美行程，聚焦于至关重要的美韩关税谈判。谈判桌上，摆满了以"经济合作"为名的筹码，而这些筹码，实则会将韩国更深地捆绑在美国的战车之 上。 此刻的李在明，比任何人都清楚前任尹锡悦的教训。尹锡悦政府全面倒向美国，导致韩国对华贸易顺差锐减近20%，国内通胀率飙升至3.8%，青年失业率更 是突破了令人不安的10%。如果李在明重蹈覆辙，无疑将是一场政治自杀。要知道，他之所以能够当选总统，关键就在于他承诺"修复对华关系以振兴经 济"， 竞选时他曾直言不讳： ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the shifting dynamics in the energy market amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with China emerging as a key player while Europe grapples with uncertainty [1][3][4] - China's oil refineries are capitalizing on the situation by significantly increasing imports of Russian oil, taking advantage of India's retreat due to U.S. tariffs, with a notable purchase of 15 million barrels in August at a $1 discount per barrel [2][5] - The geopolitical maneuvering by Putin, including his legislative promises, is seen as a strategic ploy rather than a genuine peace initiative, creating a dilemma for Western nations [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses how China's oil imports surged to an average of 75,000 barrels per day in August, a fourfold increase, filling the market gap left by India [4][13] - China's strategy includes blending cheaper Russian Ural crude with higher-quality ESPO crude to maximize profit margins, demonstrating a calculated approach to refining operations [8][13] - The article notes that China's energy cooperation is based on market principles, allowing it to navigate U.S. sanctions effectively, with over 95% of transactions settled in RMB [11][13] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that while the U.S. and Russia engage in diplomatic posturing, China remains a non-combatant yet influential player, benefiting from the chaos [10][11] - China's diversified energy sourcing strategy is highlighted, with a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio and not relying solely on Russian oil [13] - The overall narrative suggests that despite the geopolitical tensions, China is positioned to gain economically, with its trade surplus increasing by 11.2% during the conflict [13]

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

Group 1 - Trump's executive order on August 6, 2025, imposed a 25% tariff on Indian oil imports from Russia, raising the total tariff to 50%, which is expected to reduce India's exports to the US by 80% [1][4][8] - India's exports to the US account for approximately 17% of its total exports, leading to significant economic pressure on Indian businesses and employment [1][4] - The Indian government is facing challenges as it attempts to balance its energy security needs with the economic impact of the tariffs, emphasizing the importance of continuing to purchase Russian oil [3][8] Group 2 - Modi's government is implementing tax reforms to stimulate the economy in response to the tariffs, but these measures are seen as temporary solutions [3][4] - The geopolitical dynamics are shifting, with China continuing to import Russian oil significantly, while India feels isolated due to the US's selective enforcement of tariffs [4][8] - The Indian economy is projected to suffer a loss of over a hundred billion dollars in exports due to the tariffs, exacerbating the trade deficit [4][8] Group 3 - The response from China and Russia indicates a strengthening of their energy alliance, with Russia prioritizing oil exports to China, further sidelining India [3][6] - India's attempts to collaborate with South Korea on steel production are limited in scale compared to its needs, highlighting the challenges it faces in diversifying its trade partnerships [6][8] - The overall sentiment is that India's position in the global trade landscape is becoming increasingly precarious, necessitating a reevaluation of its foreign relations strategy [6][10]

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 国泰海通指出，国际环境日益复杂严峻，中俄近期开展海上联合演训，演练课目贴近实战，包括联 合机动、联合防空等；美国正构建反无人机防御体系，计划将乌克兰纳入测试，采用激光、电磁脉冲等 多种手段。大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，美国及其盟友国防战略重心向印太转向，中国周边紧张局势可能 逐步加剧，军工行业长期向好。要打赢现代战争，既需先进战机、导弹作为制胜手段，又需火箭弹等高 效费比装备支撑持久消耗，还需可靠通信指挥体系保障。中 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of Russian Oil Dependency - India imports 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily, meeting 35% of its total demand, saving over $10 billion annually due to lower prices compared to Middle Eastern oil [4] - The refining sector profits approximately $19 billion annually by selling refined oil to Europe, heavily relying on cheap Russian oil to maintain low production costs [4] - A 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. has increased transportation costs for Russian oil from $3 to $20 per barrel, erasing the price advantage [6] Group 2: Strategic Goals of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. aims to cut off military funding to Russia by pressuring India, which accounts for 37% of Russia's oil exports [6] - The U.S. is testing the loyalty of its allies, as seen in the G7 summit where European countries remained silent on sanctions against India [8] Group 3: India's Economic Dilemma - India faces a dilemma: continuing to purchase Russian oil risks U.S. tariffs, while stopping purchases could lead to skyrocketing inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) already at a three-year high of 6.2% [10] - The reliance on Russian military supplies complicates India's ability to retaliate against U.S. sanctions, as 86% of its weaponry is sourced from Russia [10] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Challenges - U.S. tariffs threaten India's burgeoning smartphone export sector, which has been growing at 90% annually, forcing companies like Apple to reassess their supply chains [11] - India's low self-sufficiency in industrial supply chains (31%) compared to China (73%) exacerbates its vulnerability to external pressures [13] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Struggles - The pharmaceutical industry, supplying 60% of global vaccines and 40% of generic drugs, is facing a crisis as U.S. tariffs have led to a 47% increase in insulin prices, causing significant order losses for Indian drug companies [14]

Core Insights - The importance of rare earth resources has significantly increased globally, particularly in high-tech and military applications, with China being the largest producer and tightening export controls, impacting the global market, especially the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Dependency on Rare Earths - The U.S. recognizes the irreplaceable role of rare earth elements like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium in its industrial and military production, with significant quantities required for advanced military equipment such as the F-35 fighter jet and nuclear submarines [3][5] - In 2024, the U.S. resorted to smuggling rare earths through countries like Thailand and Mexico, with 4,000 tons smuggled, which is 35 times the import volume of the past three years, highlighting the deep dependency on these resources [5][8] Group 2: China's Response to Smuggling - China has implemented strict measures against U.S. smuggling activities, enhancing customs monitoring and introducing advanced scanning technology to detect illegal shipments [9] - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 2025, imposes severe penalties for rare earth smuggling, including up to 10 years of imprisonment and fines up to five times the illegal gains [9] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Implications - The smuggling actions and China's countermeasures reflect the fragility of the global supply chain in the face of resource control, emphasizing the high dependency of U.S. industries on Chinese rare earths [8][11] - The competition for rare earth resources is becoming a focal point in international relations, with countries likely to increase their own resource development and research into alternatives to avoid reliance on illegal channels [15][17]

总台记者 阮佳闻：从形式上看，这是一场典型的"欧洲自救"；从结果来看，默茨与泽连斯基在联合记者会上提出了包括乌克兰必须参与任何后续谈判、停 火应先于实质磋商、安全保障与跨大西洋协调等在内的五点核心立场，似乎展现了欧洲内部的高度一致。然而，这些精心摆出的"统一阵线"，背后却藏着不 安。 总台记者 阮佳闻：首先是被边缘化的担忧。在布鲁塞尔和柏林，外交界普遍认为，美俄直接接触既可能绕过乌克兰，也可能令欧洲在关键安全议题上失去 主导权。尽管特朗普声称"不想做交易"，但其对乌克兰加入北约的反对、对领土问题的模糊表态，都令欧洲怀疑：华盛顿的优先事项并非稳固欧洲安全秩 序，而是追求自身在地缘政治上的利益。 总台记者 阮佳闻：另一层隐忧来自投入与影响力之间的不匹配。这种高投入与不确定的政治回报，让欧洲对"被抛在后面"格外敏感：出力更多，却可能在 关键协议上被动接受结果。 总台记者 阮佳闻：更深层的是欧洲在大国博弈中的弱势位置。在华盛顿和莫斯科的双边议程里，乌克兰议题可能只是更广泛美俄交易中的一环——从战略 武器谈判到北极能源合作，都有可能挤占欧洲关切的空间。在跨大西洋关系中，欧洲似乎更像是被动接受条件的一方。 总台记者 阮佳 ...