Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of October 28, cup rubber is priced at 53.35 THB/kg (+0.20), latex at 55.00 THB/kg (+0.50), Yunnan rubber at 14,200 CNY/ton (+200), Hainan private rubber at 15,800 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,880 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed rubber at 15,000 CNY/ton (0) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year. The increase is attributed to early snowfall in regions like Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, boosting demand for snow tires [1] - The capacity utilization rate for all-steel tire sample enterprises is 65.87%, up 1.91 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.95 percentage points year-on-year. Production has returned to normal levels, contributing to a slight increase in overall capacity utilization [1] - In Shandong, the finished product inventory for tire sample enterprises has increased month-on-month. As of October 23, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days month-on-month and up 8.35 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days month-on-month and up 0.96 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - According to QinRex, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year. Standard rubber exports were 1.116 million tons, down 20%, while smoked sheet rubber exports were 308,000 tons, up 22%, and latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% [2] - From January to September, Thailand exported a total of 759,000 tons of natural rubber to China, an increase of 6% year-on-year. Standard rubber exports to China were 459,000 tons, down 19%, while smoked sheet rubber exports surged to 99,000 tons, up 330%, and latex exports reached 199,000 tons, up 70% [2] - Overall, Thailand's total exports of natural and mixed rubber reached 3.247 million tons in the first three quarters, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, with exports to China totaling 2.006 million tons, up 26% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, excessive rainfall in production areas is expected to continue until the end of the month, supporting raw material prices. However, there are expectations for increased supply in the medium to long term, with attention on future weather conditions [3] - Demand for semi-steel tires remains stable, with concentrated orders for snow tires. Production enthusiasm among semi-steel tire manufacturers remains high to ensure normal supply of various products. For all-steel tires, shipment performance is steady, but some companies are experiencing rising inventory levels [3] - The overall macro environment is favorable in the short term, with strong support for rubber prices from raw material prices. Future attention will be on the output of raw materials during the peak production period and macroeconomic changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward price movement, while if supply is constrained, rubber prices are expected to remain around 15,000-15,500 CNY [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - events have introduced new disturbances, and rubber has continued its weak performance. Although there is cost support due to rainfall in production areas and a decline in mid - stream inventory, and the downstream operating rate may rebound after the holiday, external macro - disturbances are negative, so it may maintain a weak performance in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as "neutral". In domestic production areas, raw material release in Yunnan was slow due to rain during the festival, and prices were weak. In Hainan, raw material supply was tight due to rain. In Thailand, heavy rainfall may affect raw material supply, and in Vietnam, although the weather improved, production had not fully recovered, and inventory was low [3] - **Demand**: It is rated as "neutral". As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points). It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will rebound next week [3] - **Inventory**: It is rated as "relatively high". As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.1 tons, and that of light - colored rubber was 42.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is rated as "neutral". After the festival, the RU - mixed spread rebounded and expanded, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts also increased slightly [3] - **Profit**: It is rated as "relatively high". The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex was in a loss state but stable, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex was still in a loss state but recovered significantly [3] - **Valuation**: It is rated as "bearish". The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is rated as "neutral". The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the previous optimistic sentiment has subsided. The domestic commodity market currently lacks drivers, and market sentiment is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed contract [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: After the festival, natural rubber stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 10, the RU main contract closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 285 yuan/ton (+1.90%), and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,350 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 250 yuan/ton (+2.07%) [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded [9] - **Disk Position**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [33] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [41] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of cup rubber rebounded [50] - **Main - Producing Country Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63] - **Main - Producing Country Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73] - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+19.47%). In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [86][93] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory decreased significantly. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%) [103][110] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the festival, the tire capacity utilization rate may rebound. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points) [111][119] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In August, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [125][136] - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, China exported 6.19 million tons of rubber tires (+5.1%). In August, the export volume was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [137] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and the delivery profit of full - latex were in a loss state [147]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 25, cup rubber is priced at 51.05 THB/kg (+0.25), while latex is at 54.80 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The purchase price for Yunnan rubber is 14,300 CNY/ton (-200), and for Hainan private rubber, it is 16,000 CNY/ton [1] - In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, Thai standard rubber is priced at 1,860 USD/ton, while Thai mixed rubber is at 14,850 CNY/ton [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.64%, down 0.10 percentage points month-on-month and down 6.95 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.39%, up 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.27 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.15 days, up 0.13 days month-on-month and up 9.67 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.16 days, up 0.03 days month-on-month and down 4.88 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.789 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [2] - Standard rubber exports amounted to 1.017 million tons, down 19% year-on-year, while smoked sheet rubber exports increased by 21% to 265,000 tons [2] - Exports of latex increased by 9% to 496,000 tons, with total exports to China reaching 696,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Southeast Asia is expected to increase due to improved rainfall conditions, putting pressure on raw material prices and weakening cost support for rubber [3] - Downstream tire manufacturers have completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the pace of inventory reduction for natural rubber [3] - Despite some companies facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, indicating potential inventory build-up [3] Market Outlook - The price range for the January contract is projected between 15,000 and 16,500, with future attention on raw material output during peak production periods [3]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 23, cup rubber is priced at 50.45 THB/kg (+0.10), while latex is at 55.30 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The acquisition price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan private rubber water is 16,000 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard is 1,830 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed is 14,800 CNY/ton (-50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month and up 9.33 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Dynamics - Supply expectations indicate a potential weakening of raw material prices, with cost support shifting from strong to weak; however, recent typhoon weather has raised concerns about short-term supply release [2] - Downstream tire manufacturers have largely completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the inventory reduction pace of natural rubber [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, and some companies may adopt flexible production control to alleviate inventory pressure [2]

Group 1: Market Trends - Since August 4, natural rubber futures 2601 contract have shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching a peak of 16,020 yuan/ton on August 19, and closing at 15,905 yuan/ton on August 25 [1] - The global natural rubber market is expected to enter a production increase season from September to November, with a projected slight increase of 0.5% in global production to 14.892 million tons by 2025, primarily driven by major producing countries like Thailand and China [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Three main factors are influencing the supply side of natural rubber prices: 1. Expected production increase in major producing regions due to improved weather conditions, although geopolitical factors and uncertain weather in Q4 may disrupt production [1] 2. Policy disruptions such as state reserve purchases and tariff adjustments affecting the supply landscape, with China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in July 2025 [1] 3. Rising domestic inventory levels, with Qingdao's general trade inventory of natural rubber reaching 397,400 tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous year [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for rubber has shown resilience despite being weaker than last year, supported by ongoing investments in new energy and infrastructure [2] - In July 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 83,000 units, a 42% increase year-on-year, although down 15% from June [2] - The export of tires has slowed due to U.S. tariff policies and EU anti-dumping investigations, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in rubber tire exports from January to July, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous year's growth [2] Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook for natural rubber prices suggests a continued strong fluctuation, with caution advised regarding upward potential due to a lack of core bullish factors on the supply side and steady but weak demand [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that the natural rubber futures 2601 contract may continue to show a strong oscillating trend, with support levels at 15,200 to 15,000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 16,000 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - Natural rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 15,470.00 yuan, closing at 15,575.00 yuan, down 1.92% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures recommends holding long positions in natural rubber, citing pressure on inventory but a limited import volume from July to October, leading to a gradual reduction in stocks [2] - New Century Futures expects natural rubber prices to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, driven by increased purchasing activity from downstream tire manufacturers and a decrease in overall port inventory [3] - Green Dahan Futures anticipates a medium to long-term bullish outlook for natural rubber, despite recent price declines attributed to concerns over demand performance [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market shows a supply surplus, but the gap between supply and demand is narrowing, with expectations of tighter raw material supply due to increased rainfall in major production areas [3] - Domestic inventory is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by stable demand and favorable supply-side conditions [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to experience weak consolidation in the short term. The supply from the main producing areas is increasing, leading to a continuous decline in raw material prices and a weakening of cost support. Terminal demand is weak, with low operating rates, providing limited support for rubber prices. Additionally, after the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment, the market's bearish sentiment is rising [82][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - ANRPC's June 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in June will decrease by 1.5% to 1191000 tons, while consumption will increase by 0.7% to 1271000 tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production is expected to decline by 1.1% to 6076000 tons, and cumulative consumption will increase by 1% to 7715000 tons. In 2025, global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14892000 tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15565000 tons. The natural rubber price showed a bearish trend in June due to improved supply in major producing areas, rising port inventories, and uncertainties brought by trade tariffs [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57044000 pieces. Except for the motorcycle and scooter tire segments, the sales volume of various tire categories was lower than that in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2257000 tons, and exports to China increased by 35% year - on - year to 1423000 tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets experienced significant pullbacks. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared to the previous period [10][11]. Price Differences - The price differences between RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. For example, on August 1, 2025, the price difference of RU09 - NR09 was 2135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74% [23][24]. - This week, the import rubber market's offer prices declined. The price differences between imported rubber and RU showed different trends. For example, the price difference between Thai mixed rubber and RU was - 260 yuan/ton on August 1, 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 46.39% [26][27]. - The price difference between whole - milk and Thai mixed rubber decreased, while the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber was 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200% [32][33]. - The price differences between synthetic rubber and RU narrowed. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between butadiene rubber and RU was - 2710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19.94% [35][36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared to the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly. On August 1, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 4.75, with a month - on - month decrease of 32.01% [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - In the Thai production area, the temperature and rainfall in the southern part increased significantly. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared to the same period [42][44]. - Due to the fading of macro - sentiment, the prices of rubber futures and spot goods declined, and raw material prices also followed suit. However, due to more rainfall in Yunnan recently, raw material prices remained relatively firm. On August 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 47.4 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.20% [47][48]. - The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber increased, and the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory first increased and then decreased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber was 6.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 24.53% [55][56]. - As the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products, the overall processing profit decreased. On August 1, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 111 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 202.78% [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [62][63]. Demand - During the cycle, some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the month, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 59.26% and 69.98% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4.77% and 0.11% [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. On July 25, 2025, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 804900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17% [73][75]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange showed different trends. On August 1, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 177600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41% [78][79]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is weak consolidation. The supply in the producing areas continues to increase, raw material prices are falling, and cost support is weakening. Terminal demand is weak, and the operating rate is low, providing limited support for rubber prices. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to be weakly consolidated in the short term [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the short - term. The supply from the producing areas is increasing, raw material prices are falling, cost support is weakening, terminal demand is weak, and the market's bearish sentiment is rising [81][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - ANRPC predicts that global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 1.4892 billion tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 1.5565 billion tons. In June, production was expected to fall by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption to rise by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. The price showed a bearish trend due to supply improvement, rising port inventories, and trade tariff uncertainties [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces. Except for motorcycle and scooter tires, the sales of other types of tires were lower than those in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets had a significant correction. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared with the previous period [10][11]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. The spreads of whole milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spreads of 3L - Thai mixed increased [21][30]. - The prices of substitute rubbers such as BR and SBR decreased, and the spreads between synthetic rubbers and RU narrowed [33]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly [36]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the temperature and rainfall in the southern region increased significantly. In China, the rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared with the same period in previous years [40][42]. - The prices of raw materials decreased. The prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets decreased, while the raw materials in Yunnan were still relatively firm due to more rainfall [44][45]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber widened, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories first rose and then fell [53]. - The overall processing profit decreased as the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products [57]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [61][62]. Demand - Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the cycle, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The finished product inventory decreased as the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated at the end of the month [65]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [69][70]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. There is a high possibility of inventory reduction in Qingdao next period, while there may still be a slight increase in inventory in Yunnan [72]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: The supply from the main producing areas increased this week, and raw material prices continued to fall, weakening the bottom support of rubber prices [82]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises were 69.98% and 59.26% respectively, showing a weak demand [82]. - View: It is expected that the rubber price will continue its weak consolidation in the short - term due to the increasing supply, falling raw material prices, weak terminal demand, and the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment [82]. - Valuation: The basis between whole milk and RU main contract was stable, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract narrowed [82]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound and weak; the inter - period spread trading should shift from reverse arbitrage to positive arbitrage; for cross - variety trading, just observe for now [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: As of July 25, both RU and NR prices increased, and the RU - NR spread widened. The RU09 - 01 spread was at a high level. RU prices are affected by downstream stocking sentiment and a downward trend in light - colored rubber inventories, while NR prices are influenced by supply panic due to the Thailand - Cambodia conflict and short - term export resilience in the tire industry. It is judged that both RU and NR prices will fluctuate within a range this week [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: RU has a neutral rating, and NR has a neutral - to - bearish rating. The RU9 - 1 spread is neutral - to - bearish, and the RU - NR spread is expected to continue widening. The overall situation of the natural rubber market is complex, with various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory having different impacts [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Spread - As of July 25, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The RU01 - 05 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [4][98]. - As of July 25, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract was - 485 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the same period [4]. - As of July 25, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 15350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week [69]. Supply - **Thailand**: Thailand's rubber production has fully resumed after the conflict, and the supply is increasing. The conflict in the border areas of three Thai provinces may lead to a maximum reduction of 0.5 million tons in July's production if the situation recovers before August, and an additional 2.12 million tons if the conflict continues into August. As of July 28, a cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia has taken effect [8]. - **China**: From January to June, China's cumulative imports of natural rubber were 145.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.05%. In June, China imported 5.58 million tons of natural rubber from Thailand, a month - on - month decrease of 39.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.46% due to the delayed tapping and rainy - season disturbances in Thailand. Yunnan's rubber production is affected by rainfall, but the overall increasing trend remains unchanged [30][40]. Demand - **Tire Industry**: It is currently the off - season for tire consumption, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. As of July 24, the full - steel tire production rate of Chinese tire enterprises was 65.02%, a 0.08% decrease from last week, and the semi - steel tire production rate was 65.87%, a 0.12% decrease from last week. The semi - steel tire inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Dairy Products**: The demand for concentrated dairy products is weak, and the production rate is at a historically low level [4]. Inventory - As of July 20, the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 49.3 million tons, a 1% week - on - week decrease, and the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.5 million tons, a 0.25% week - on - week decrease [4][83][84]. - As of July 25, the inventory of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week, while the inventory of 20 - standard rubber futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange increased week - on - week. The total inventory of spot rubber at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with bonded inventory decreasing and general trade inventory increasing [15][48]. Other Factors - The rainy season in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is gradually weakening, but there is still rainfall in China's main producing areas, which may affect rubber tapping [4]. - The tire industry is facing the problems of reduced export profits and high raw material costs. The government has introduced policies to regulate the industry, but the market trend is mainly driven by the commodity market atmosphere [18][26].

Core Insights - Natural rubber futures experienced slight adjustments on June 19, with spot prices remaining stable [1] - The main contract for natural rubber futures closed at 14,030.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.21% increase, with a trading volume of 292,773 lots [2] Price Overview - The trading prices for standard rubber (SCRWF) from various suppliers in Shandong Province were reported at 13,800 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai market indicated a transaction price range for 2023 SCRWF at 13,900-14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Market Conditions - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to harvest, but weather disruptions have limited output in Thailand, leading to a rebound in cup rubber and latex prices [3][5] - The inventory of natural rubber futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was reported at 193,120 tons, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous trading day [4] Demand Factors - The downstream tire industry is facing challenges due to difficulties in inventory reduction, a significant drop in export orders, and a seasonal decline in automotive consumption [5] - The consumption of semi-steel tires, closely related to exports, is particularly weak, contributing to ongoing pressure on rubber prices [5]