央视网消息：11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）。其中1年期为 3.00%，5年期以上为3.50%，这是两大LPR品种报价连续6个月保持不变。 LPR是贷款利率定价的主要参考基准，市场化程度更高，能更好地反映信贷市场资金供求状况。 专家表示，报价保持不变符合市场预期。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青称："6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快 发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强。" LPR今年唯一一次调整是在5月，1年期和5年期以上LPR均下调10个基点。贷款利率则保持在历史低位水平。央行数据显示，10月企业新 发放贷款加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个人住房新发放贷款加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约8个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable market expectations and a consistent monetary policy environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections LPR Announcement - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values [1]. - The announcement aligns with market expectations, indicating stability in the monetary policy [1]. Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, while 190 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% and the 7-day Shibor down by 2.7 basis points to 1.46% [1]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance, with key indicators such as investment, consumption, and industrial production showing signs of decline [2][3]. - The potential for new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [3]. - The regulatory body may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high mortgage rates and boost housing market demand [4].

从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.9%、48.7%和47.1%，比上月下降1.1个、0.1个和1.1个 百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，生产指数、新 订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 生产指数为49.7%，比上月下降2.2个百分点，表明制造业生产有所放缓。 新订单指数为48.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 原材料库存指数为47.3%，比上月下降1.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 从业人员指数为48.3%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回落。 国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 10月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 供应商配送时间指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时 间与上月基本持平。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数(经季节调整) 单位：% PMI 生产 新订单 原材料 库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, but the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. In terms of fundamentals, the output of rebar decreased slightly, and the demand picked up after the holiday, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, the overall demand recovery was still insufficient. The output of hot-rolled coil continued to decline, and the demand also increased after the holiday, but the inventory remained at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions were still prominent. The spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil further narrowed. At the macro level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to make an overall plan for the economic development in the next five years, which is of great guiding significance for the macroeconomic trend. In general, the current steel demand is weak. Although the previous remarks of Trump caused short-term disturbances to commodity prices, the medium - and long - term trend of steel prices has not changed fundamentally. In the short term, the pattern of weak real steel demand is still difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the intensity and direction of policy introduction around the Fourth Plenary Session [10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The cumulative output was 89.3101 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.99%. The long - process output was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.81%. The short - process output was 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.97%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.4095 million tons, and the hot - season hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons [6]. - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (previous value: 91%), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53% (previous value: 51%) [55]. - **Regional production volume**: The rebar output in the northern region was 420,000 tons (previous value: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 780,000 tons (previous value: 810,000 tons). The output in East China was 810,000 tons, in Jiangsu was 350,000 tons, in Shandong was 80,000 tons, and in Anhui was 130,000 tons. The output in Guangdong was 210,000 tons, and in Guangxi was 60,000 tons [63][66][69] 3.2 Demand - side - **Consumption volume**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2 million tons (previous value: 1.46 million tons), a week - on - week increase of 50.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The cumulative demand was 86.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.2 million tons, and in East China was 750,000 tons. In the southwest, it was 360,000 tons, in South China was 330,000 tons, in North China was 150,000 tons, and in Central China was 190,000 tons. In the northeast, it was 140,000 tons, and in the northwest was 180,000 tons [6][80][82]. - **Building material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (previous value: 105,098 tons), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 12,100 tons (unchanged from last week) [72]. 3.3 Profit - The iron - water cost was 2,640 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was - 148 yuan/ton. The electric furnace profit was - 148 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [9][38]. 3.4 Inventory - The social inventory of rebar this week was 4.56 million tons (previous value: 4.67 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 50.9%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons (previous value: 1.92 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The total inventory was 6.41 million tons (previous value: 6.6 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.3 million tons (previous value: 1.28 million tons) [8][91][93]. 3.5 Period - Spot Market - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse - receipt basis was 25 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.8%. The 01 - contract basis was 20 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 72 yuan/ton [10][19]. - **Spread**: The spread between rebar 01 and 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, between 05 and 10 was - 39 yuan/ton, and between 10 and 01 was 92 yuan/ton. The Beijing spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 280 yuan/ton), the Shanghai spread was 60 yuan/ton (previous value: 110 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou spread was - 10 yuan/ton (previous value: 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 90 yuan/ton (previous value: 70 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 46 yuan/ton (previous value: - 38 yuan/ton). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 180 yuan/ton), the Shanghai premium was 140 yuan/ton (previous value: 130 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week) [21][24][27].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [4] - The production index was 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion, while the new orders index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting improved market demand [4] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Components - The raw material inventory index was 48.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continued narrowing of the decline in raw material inventory levels [4] - The employment index was 48.5%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved employment sentiment in manufacturing [4] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times from suppliers [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in non-manufacturing business volume [8] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points [10] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing PMI Components - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [14] - The input prices index was 49.0%, down 1.3 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [14] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in employment sentiment [16] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued acceleration in overall production and business activities [19]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [4] - The production index was 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [4] Group 2: New Orders and Inventory - The new orders index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand within the manufacturing sector [5] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, still below the critical point, suggesting a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory levels [6] - The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment among manufacturing enterprises [7] Group 3: Supplier Delivery and Non-Manufacturing PMI - The supplier delivery time index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers are continuing to improve [8] - In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [12] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the services industry index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [15] Group 4: Employment and Price Indices in Non-Manufacturing - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating improved market demand [19] - The input price index was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises continue to rise [19] - The sales price index was 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in overall sales prices in the non-manufacturing sector [19] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index for August was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across industries [25]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of global markets through the FICC framework, highlighting how interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity cycles influence each other and the overall market dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: FICC Framework - FICC stands for Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities, which are crucial for understanding global asset rotation and macroeconomic trends [2]. - The analysis framework provided by the expert, Fu Peng, offers deep insights into global asset pricing and interest rate movements, revealing underlying patterns in asset cycles [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article describes the stock market as a surface-level phenomenon, while FICC represents the deeper forces driving market trends, akin to ocean currents [4]. - An upcoming event on August 30 in Shenzhen will feature Fu Peng discussing the interconnections between interest rate curves, exchange rate fluctuations, credit transmission, and commodity cycles, aiming to provide a comprehensive global investment map [4][9]. Group 3: Event Details - The event is scheduled for August 30, from 14:00 to 17:00, and will include a 2-hour in-depth sharing session followed by 1 hour of interactive Q&A [9]. - Participants are encouraged to register due to limited seating, indicating a high demand for insights into market dynamics [9].

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown resilience in the first half of the year, achieving a growth rate of 5.3%. The macroeconomic outlook for the second half remains a key focus for the market, with expectations of continued support from macro policies [3]. Economic Growth - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release July macroeconomic data on August 15, with expectations of a slowdown in industrial production growth due to seasonal factors and external disturbances [3]. - The First Financial Research Institute's Chief Economist Confidence Index rose to 50.2, indicating improved market confidence, although external uncertainties persist [3]. Industrial Production - The average forecast for July's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 6.0%, reflecting a slight decline from the previous month [5]. - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1% [5][6]. - Despite challenges, industrial production remains supported by resilient exports and active production operations, with coal consumption and railway freight volumes showing positive trends [6]. Consumer Spending - The average forecast for July's retail sales growth is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's figure [8]. - The summer season has led to increased spending in travel and entertainment, although automotive and housing consumption have seen declines [8]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 3 trillion yuan in related sales since its implementation [8]. Automotive Industry - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [9]. - The automotive market is experiencing seasonal slowdowns, but the "old-for-new" policy continues to have a positive impact [9]. Infrastructure Investment - The average forecast for July's fixed asset investment growth is 2.8%, consistent with the previous month [10]. - Infrastructure investment remains supported by government policies and ongoing projects, despite some slowdowns due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Sales of excavators in July increased by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the engineering machinery sector [10]. Real Estate Development - Real estate investment is expected to see a widening decline, with new housing transaction volumes in major cities showing significant decreases [12]. - Land transaction volumes have also declined, reflecting a weak market environment [12].

Core Insights - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data indicates a slight decline in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, reflecting economic pressures [1][3][4] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction [1][3] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, showing a decline of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [5] - Despite the decline, the manufacturing sector shows resilience with high-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs remaining above the critical point [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, but still above the critical threshold [1][6] - The service sector remains stable, with a business activity index of 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [6] - The summer holiday effect positively influences service-related sectors such as transportation and entertainment, with indices exceeding 60.0% [6] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the fluctuations in the manufacturing PMI are primarily due to short-term factors, and the foundation for economic recovery remains solid [4] - The construction sector is experiencing a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions, but is expected to rebound as the rainy season ends [6][7]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month by 0.2 percentage points, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50% [1][2] - The PMI has shown fluctuations throughout the year, peaking at 50.5% in March before dropping to 49% in April due to seasonal factors and increased trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2] - In May, the PMI rebounded to 49.5%, continuing its upward trend into June, with production and new orders indices at 51% and 50.2% respectively, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activities and improved market demand [2] Group 2 - The purchasing volume index for June reached 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating increased procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Rising procurement volumes have led to a rebound in raw material prices, with the main raw material purchase price index and factory price index at 48.4% and 46.2%, both increasing by 1.5 percentage points [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector is performing well, with both production and demand being active, as evidenced by the PMI for equipment manufacturing at 51.4% and high-tech manufacturing at 50.9%, both remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing PMI has shown a recovery from a significant drop in April, with values of 51.2% in May and 51.4% in June, alongside production and new orders indices exceeding 53% [4] - From January to May, profits in the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors increased by 56% year-on-year [4] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has maintained an expansion trend for five consecutive months, reflecting a positive development trajectory [4]