Group 1: Rubber Market Insights - Domestic RSS rubber prices decreased to 16,950 CNY/ton, down by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai mixed rubber prices also fell to 15,900 CNY/ton, a decrease of 100 CNY/ton [2][26] - As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.366 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons, or 5.4% from the previous period [2][26] - The market anticipates a significant upward pricing trend for natural rubber due to the easing of tariffs that previously suppressed growth in the tire industry, with expectations for continued demand growth [3][27] Group 2: PX Market Dynamics - The PX industry in China saw a load increase of 0.4 percentage points to 92.4%, while the Asian industry load rose by 1.2 percentage points to 84.9%, indicating a robust supply outlook [4][30] - The demand side is expected to improve significantly in April due to the recovery of downstream PTA facilities, with a notable increase in production anticipated [4][30] - Brent crude oil prices experienced fluctuations due to positive developments in US-Iran negotiations, which may impact PX pricing in the near term [5][28] Group 3: PTA and Polyester Sector - The PTA industry load increased by 1.8 percentage points to 76.6%, reaching a neutral level for the season, with downstream polyester production also expected to rise [6][30] - The market is currently cautious as downstream orders have not yet fully resumed, and there are concerns about high raw material prices affecting production recovery [6][30] - The PTA supply-demand balance is expected to improve in March, with potential price support in the 5,150-5,300 CNY range for mid-term positions [6][30] Group 4: EG Market Overview - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 2.2 percentage points to 79.0%, with a notable rise in synthetic gas production load [9][33] - The overall import dependency for ethylene glycol is approximately 27.2%, with limited impact from Iranian sources [9][33] - Short-term price movements are expected to be constrained within the 3,650-3,750 CNY range, with potential for a rebound based on low valuation logic [9][33] Group 5: Other Chemical Markets - The soda ash market is experiencing stable prices, with production slightly increasing to 791,000 tons, while inventory levels are also rising [14][39] - The glass market is facing supply pressures with an increase in inventory to 3.8 million tons, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year rise [16][41] - The PVC market is under pressure due to high inventory levels and slow recovery in downstream production, with prices expected to fluctuate between 4,600-5,000 CNY/ton [22][47]

来源：新民晚报 美国最高法院20日公布裁决，认定美国《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统大规模征收关税，"对等关 税"被叫停。随后，特朗普宣布将对来自所有国家和地区的商品加征15%的关税，令全球贸易不确定性 再度上升。 美国最高法院裁决背后有什么因素和影响？我们请专家为您详细解读。 ——编者 美国最高法院20日公布裁决，认定总统特朗普根据1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）开征的大 规模关税违法。裁决公布后，"对等关税"停止实施，特朗普立即宣布将根据《1974年贸易法》122条 最高法院裁决后，美国政府停止征收违法关税 图IC 警卫在美国最高法院门前巡逻 款，对全球商品征收10%的关税，次日又宣布将122条款关税上调至15%。 徐明棋 上海社会科学院研究员、上海欧洲学会名誉会长 特朗普政府已经明确表示，不会退还已经征收的关税。民主党主政的州和开市客等零售企业如果要求特 朗普政府退还税款，将不得不启动复杂的诉讼程序，进行旷日持久的法律博弈。 美国2025年全年的关税收入约为2640亿美元，其中大约1370亿美元属于特朗普根据IEEPA征收的关税。 已经落入口袋的关税，特朗普不会轻易退还。 重创未来执政能力 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around India's response to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that deemed reciprocal tariffs invalid, leading to the cancellation of a planned trade negotiation between India and the U.S. [1] - The agreement reached on February 3 required India to halt oil purchases from Russia and commit to buying $500 billion worth of U.S. goods over five years, which India viewed as an unequal treaty [3] - India's trade with the U.S. is significant, with the U.S. accounting for 18% of India's exports and 6.22% of its imports, indicating the importance of this relationship [5] Group 2 - The fluctuating tariff policies under Trump's administration have created uncertainty for Indian businesses, with tariffs rising from 10% to as high as 50% due to geopolitical tensions [5] - Trump's approach to trade has been characterized by emotional political maneuvers rather than precise economic strategies, leading to instability in trade negotiations [5][7] - The U.S. has signed framework agreements with nearly 20 trade partners, utilizing a strategy of increasing tariffs to pressure countries into making investments in the U.S. [7][9] Group 3 - Following the Supreme Court ruling, Trump raised tariffs to 15% and initiated investigations into more industries for potential tariffs, causing confusion among countries with existing agreements [11] - Countries like Canada and France have publicly criticized the legality of Trump's tariff actions, while the EU has prepared a list of retaliatory tariffs worth over €90 billion [11] - Despite global discontent with Trump's tariff policies, no country has taken significant action against them, with India notably adopting a cautious and strategic approach [13]

2月23日，日本雅虎头条的新闻引起了广泛关注：即便美国最高法院裁定特朗普的对等关税无效，日本仍将坚持对美国85万亿日元的巨额投资计划不变。 2月21日凌晨，日本电视台发布了速报，随后《读卖新闻》也在清晨发布了相关报道。过了几个小时，日媒的态度开始出现微妙的变化。到了21日下午，几 乎所有媒体在报道时都采取了谨慎的措辞，将违法一词收回，改为无效，或者干脆选择完全回避这个问题。 《每日新闻》在21日傍晚的报道简洁明了，内容就一句话：美国最高法院裁定特朗普实施的对等关税违法。不少人自然会认为，这意味着相关的谈判协议也 可以不再执行，或者不必完全兑现。于是日本似乎有了一个契机，摆脱过去的协议，重新洗牌。然而，早在此前，日本为了响应特朗普政府要求的对等关税 和汽车关税分别下降15%，作为交换条件，已向美国承诺了85万亿日元的投资计划，并表示这一计划将不会改变，甚至还计划继续推进第二波的谈判。 仔细看看这个标题，连违法二字都未敢明言，反而小心翼翼地表述为无效。事实上，刚刚做出判决时，日媒的速报还明确用了违法判决这个词，明显带有指 责的意味。 更值得注意的是，这并非日本政府的正式声明，而是通过日本政府匿名人士接受电视台采访 ...

来源：市场资讯 2月25日，ATFX：距离美国中期选举剩余9个多月时间，特朗普急需做出超预期成就，挽救持续下滑的 支持率。不过，现实是，特朗普2025年影响最为广泛的政策——对等关税，被美国最高法院裁定违法， 如果特朗普无法找到新的征税依据，关税战可能变成一场闹剧。 ▲ATFX图 不论特朗普对通胀的描述是否准确，从他的态度来看，认为高通胀反扑的概率较低，美联储应该抛弃限 制性利率政策，转而持续大幅度降息。这也是特朗普一贯的货币政策主张。 如果美联储迫于特朗普的压力而降息，尤其是在鲍威尔卸任之后，美元指数可能将承受较大的下行压 力。 黄金： 特朗普在讲话中说到："我们正在与他们谈判。他们想达成协议，但我们还没有听到符合预期的许诺。" 美国和伊朗的关系是仅次于俄罗斯和乌克兰关系的全球第二大焦点。在伊朗核问题上，美国占据主导 权。有消息称，美伊双方本周将在日内瓦进行会晤，释放出双方关系缓和迹象。但是， 美国的两艘航 母已经部署至中东地区，"擦枪走火"的可能性仍然较高。 自委内瑞拉事件后，观察人士已经不再认为特朗普"只会极限施压，不会有所动作"。一旦美国对伊朗进 行打击，黄金和原油或迎来剧烈涨势。 美东时间2月24日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that deemed Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs as unconstitutional, leading to a shift in U.S. trade policy towards China and other partners, while highlighting the anxiety behind Trump's aggressive stance on tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Legal and Policy Changes - The Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariffs under IEEPA were unconstitutional, prompting him to raise the baseline tariff rate from 10% to 15% [1][5]. - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer emphasized that agreements with partners, including China, remain valid despite the tariff changes, indicating a need for reassurance [3][5]. - The Trump administration is now considering using the Trade Act of 1974, Section 122, to impose tariffs, although this legal basis is less stable and requires a fundamental international balance of payments issue [9][11]. Group 2: Impact on U.S.-China Relations - The tariffs imposed on China, particularly the "equal tariffs," have been a significant tool for Trump, with rates reaching as high as 145% at one point [7][13]. - The Supreme Court's ruling undermines the legal foundation for these tariffs, complicating U.S.-China negotiations and potentially leading to a reevaluation of commitments made under previous agreements [13][15]. - China's response to the U.S. actions indicates a readiness to reassess its commitments, especially if the U.S. continues to impose tariffs under different legal frameworks [15][19]. Group 3: Future Trends and Strategic Considerations - The U.S. is likely to explore other legal avenues for maintaining trade barriers, such as trade investigations and national security claims, despite the change in tariff strategy [19][21]. - The balance of power in U.S.-China negotiations may shift in favor of China, as the credibility of U.S. threats diminishes following the Supreme Court ruling [21][23]. - The uncertainty in U.S. trade policy is becoming a systemic risk, prompting businesses and countries to reassess their engagement with the U.S. market [21][23].

市场长久以来一直存在一个幻想：高额关税将迫使外国出口商流血降价，从而保护美国国内经济。然而，中信建投（CSC）指出：在这场关税博弈中， 买单的是美国进口商，并最终是美国消费者。 第一层传导：出口商拒不降价，美国进口商吞下92%关税成本 研报第一部分直击核心：关税成本到底在谁身上？中信建投基于HS10位级别进口数据，构建了一个包含535万观测值（涵盖8国、20,868种产品、跨度 108个月至2025年12月）的庞大面板数据集。 回归模型得出的基准结论是：β≈−0.08β≈−0.08，即传递率约92%。关税每增加1个百分点，出口商平均仅微降0.08个百分点。出口商仅吸收了8%的冲 击，剩余92%全部砸在美国买家头上。 分国别来看，数据更加令人瞩目： | 模型 | 规格 | B | 标准误 | 传递率 | 样本量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | l a | Pooled OLS | -0.076*** | 0.009 | 92.4% | 4,218,474 | | l P | 产品 FE | -0.079*** | 0.009 | 92.1% | 4,218,3 ...

根据日本《每日新闻》网站2月21日的报道，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府推行的对等关税无效后，令人惊讶的是，日本仍然没有敢于撕毁 与美国签订的日美投资协议。众所周知，为了让美国减轻对等关税，日本当时不惜同特朗普签订了一份让人心生疑虑的协议，代价高达 5500亿美元。然而，如今对等关税被判无效，本该是个喜讯，意味着日本不必再承担这笔庞大的费用，但它依然不敢轻易撕毁协议。这背 后的真正原因，显然并不是因为日本富得无处花钱，而是有着四个深层的考虑。 再者，5500亿美元的投资，最终无论如何日本都要付出。即便是撕毁协议，也不能改变这一现实。日本如今走向右转已是无法避免的趋 势，但这并不是日本单方面可以控制的，光是社会氛围的转变并不足够，关键在于它能否扩展军备，增派军队，并提升尖端武器的生产能 力。而这一切，没有美国的认可，根本无法实现。日本的军事工业在很大程度上依赖美国，尤其是日本的航空自卫队，其研发的F2战斗机 几乎就是美国F-16的日本版，而这些战斗机的关键零部件几乎全由美国供应。日本海上自卫队和陆上自卫队的状况也类似。没有美国的技 术支持，日本根本无法独立研发和生产如此高端的军事装备。5500亿美元，实际上是买路钱 ...

摘要今日周三(2月25日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1145.39元/克，较前一交易日上涨9.16元，涨幅 0.81%，日内呈现反弹走势。当日开盘价报1135.87元/克，盘中最高触及1147.51元/克，最低下探至 1132.59元/克。 今日周三(2月25日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1145.39元/克，较前一交易日上涨9.16元，涨幅 0.81%，日内呈现反弹走势。当日开盘价报1135.87元/克，盘中最高触及1147.51元/克，最低下探至 1132.59元/克。 【要闻速递】 特朗普表示将在最高法院否决其"对等关税"后，将全球进口税提至15%，市场陷入混乱。一项10%进口 税指令已周二生效，但15%税率时间表未定。 美国贸易伙伴正艰难协调新关税与既有协议，欧盟评估发现部分出口产品关税将超协定上限，令本就紧 张的关系雪上加霜。景顺亚太区客户解决方案主管Hamilton称，关税新闻推高不确定性，对黄金有边际 支撑，但不足以促决定性突破;实际利率与美元坚挺，近期金价或盘整而非大涨。 投资者避险需求下，金价月初历史性暴跌后重上5000美元，投机性买盘曾将多年反弹推向崩溃，从1月 底5595美元历史高位 ...

欧盟贸易专员Maros Sefcovic敦促欧盟议员在3月批准与美国的贸易协议，前提是届时能就美国总统唐纳 德·特朗普的新关税计划获得明确说明。 Sefcovic周二在欧洲议会贸易委员会表示："3月的全体会议表决必须仍是我们的目标，当然前提是我们 从美国方面获得更多明确性。" Maros Sefcovic 在美国最高法院驳回特朗普援引紧急权力法在全球实施所谓"对等"关税后，欧盟议员周一冻结了美欧贸 易协议的批准工作。法院裁决以及特朗普随后宣布征收新的全球关税令贸易伙伴感到困惑，也对现有协 议提出疑问。 Sefcovic向议员表示，特朗普政府致力于维护该协议。 "自裁决以来，我一直与美方对口官员保持密切联系，他们都向我保证将坚持与欧盟达成的协议，"他 说。 欧盟贸易专员Maros Sefcovic敦促欧盟议员在3月批准与美国的贸易协议，前提是届时能就美国总统唐纳 德·特朗普的新关税计划获得明确说明。 Sefcovic周二在欧洲议会贸易委员会表示："3月的全体会议表决必须仍是我们的目标，当然前提是我们 从美国方面获得更多明确性。" Maros Sefcovic 在美国最高法院驳回特朗普援引紧急权力法在全球实施所谓 ...