吃喝板块今日（9月29日）继续回调，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）开盘后多数时间低 位震荡，截至发稿，场内价格跌0.33%。 成份股方面，大众品跌幅居前，部分白酒股亦表现不佳。截至发稿，妙可蓝多、酒鬼酒双双大跌超 2%，莲花控股、伊利股份、迎驾贡酒等多股跌超1%，拖累板块走势。 近日吃喝板块持续回调之际，资金频频通过板块场内热门布局工具食品ETF（515710）左侧布局吃喝板 块。数据显示，截至上个交易日，食品ETF（515710）近5个交易日有4个交易日获资金净申购，合计净 申购额超过5500万元；近10个交易日食品ETF（515710）有9个交易日吸金，合计吸金额更是超过1.24 亿元。 消息面上，贵州茅台方面称，6、7月份，在白酒行业整体承压之下，茅台通过科学、精准的市场投放策 略，有效稳定了茅台酒市场销售基本面。进入8月份，随着前期"三个转型""四个聚焦打""五个量比关 系"等一系列市场措施的落地见效，以及传统双节临近的需求驱动，市场终端动销环比增长态势明显。 其中，9月以来，贵州茅台酒终端动销增长表现更加显著，环比增长约1倍，同比增长超20%。 一键配置吃喝板块核心资产，重点关注食 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of index investment in the context of deepening capital market reforms and optimizing investor structure, with the total market ETF scale exceeding 5 trillion yuan by early September this year [1] Group 1: Index Investment Growth - The ETF management scale of Yongying Fund has surpassed 19 billion yuan, launching several industry-first products such as gold stock ETF, general aviation ETF, satellite ETF, and Hong Kong medical ETF [1] - The company emphasizes that index investment requires a deep understanding of industry development trends and forward-looking layouts rather than mere product replication [1] Group 2: Differentiated Development Strategy - Yongying Fund has adopted a unique "cake-cutting" strategy since 2020, focusing on niche opportunities within large industries, such as concentrating on the medical device sector instead of the entire medical industry [2] - This differentiated approach stems from in-depth research on industry trends, aligning with government strategic directions like low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace [2] Group 3: Performance and Growth - The strategy of early positioning in promising but under-explored areas has shown initial success, with products like gold stock ETF and medical device ETF performing well, contributing to the ETF total scale growing nearly threefold from 4.7 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [3] - Specific product performance includes gold stock ETF exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale within two years, medical device ETF nearing 5 billion yuan, and both general aviation ETF and satellite ETF surpassing 1 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Product Matrix Expansion - Following the validation of its differentiated layout, Yongying Fund has accelerated the development of its product matrix, establishing 11 ETF products covering various sectors [4] - The company aims to create a comprehensive "product shelf" to provide suitable investment tools regardless of market conditions, with plans to expand into core sectors like consumption, manufacturing, technology, and finance [4] Group 5: Quantitative Investment Development - Yongying Fund is actively developing its quantitative investment sector, primarily focusing on index enhancement strategies across multiple indices [5] - The company plans to increase investment in active quantitative strategies, including fundamental quantitative, multi-factor quantitative, and machine learning approaches [5] Group 6: Risk Management and Future Outlook - Yongying Fund emphasizes that quantitative investment is a technology-driven model that requires continuous effort and cannot guarantee easy success [6] - The company has established a strict risk management system to proactively manage risks, ensuring a better investment experience for investors [6] - Future plans include further enhancing product layout and research capabilities to provide more high-quality tool-type products, aiming for a differentiated development path through continuous innovation and refined management [6]

Core Insights - The rapid development of index investment in the capital market is highlighted, with the total market ETF scale exceeding 5 trillion yuan by early September this year, driven by public institutions accelerating their layout and product innovation [1] - Yongying Fund has achieved an ETF management scale of over 19 billion yuan, launching several industry-first products such as gold stock ETF, general aviation ETF, satellite ETF, and Hong Kong medical ETF [1][2] - The company emphasizes the importance of understanding industry development trends and making forward-looking arrangements rather than merely replicating products [1][2] Differentiated Development Strategy - Yongying Fund has adopted a unique "cake-cutting" strategy since 2020, focusing on niche opportunities within large industries, such as concentrating on the medical device sector instead of the entire healthcare industry [2][3] - This differentiated approach stems from in-depth research on industry trends, aligning with government strategic directions, such as low-altitude economy and satellite communication [2] Performance and Growth - The strategy has shown initial success, with products like gold stock ETF and medical device ETF performing well, contributing to the total ETF scale growing nearly threefold from 4.7 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to over 19 billion yuan [3] - Specific product achievements include the gold stock ETF surpassing 10 billion yuan in scale within two years, and the medical device ETF nearing 5 billion yuan, with general aviation and satellite ETFs also leading in their categories [3] Product Matrix Expansion - Following the validation of its differentiated strategy, Yongying Fund is accelerating the expansion of its product matrix, having established 11 ETF products covering various sectors [4] - The company aims to create a comprehensive "product shelf" to provide suitable investment tools regardless of market conditions, with plans to expand into core sectors such as consumption, manufacturing, technology, and finance [4] Quantitative Investment Development - Yongying Fund is actively developing its quantitative investment sector, focusing on index enhancement strategies across multiple indices [5] - The company plans to increase investment in active quantitative strategies, incorporating fundamental quantitative, multi-factor quantitative, and machine learning approaches [5][6] Risk Management and Future Outlook - A strong risk management framework is in place, with tools like the Mingjing risk management system to proactively manage risks and enhance expected return characteristics [6] - The company is committed to continuous innovation and refined management to carve out a differentiated development path in a competitive market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Index funds have gained popularity among investors as a means to optimize asset allocation and diversify risk, with Yongying Fund adopting a dual-track strategy of "broad-based foundation + innovative breakthrough" to navigate the competitive landscape [1] Company Development - Yongying Fund's index business started relatively late, initially adopting a conservative defensive strategy and focusing on building a foundational framework and conducting extensive market research [2] - A strategic turning point occurred in 2020 when the company recognized the need to move beyond merely "following" the market and began to explore differentiated opportunities, particularly in the booming medical sector [2][3] - The decision to launch a medical device ETF was based on the recognition of the unique investment value in the medical device sector, which was less saturated compared to other areas in healthcare [3] Investment Strategy - The company embraces "left-side" opportunities, focusing on sectors aligned with clear national policy directions, such as low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace, which were highlighted in government reports [4] - Despite being a latecomer in the index product market, the company leverages the creativity and efficiency of its research team to pursue challenging yet promising investment opportunities [4] Recent Product Launches - In 2023, the company launched a gold stock ETF to fill a gap in the domestic market, which has seen a net value increase of over 68% year-to-date as of September 3, 2025 [5] - The company emphasizes the importance of research and risk control in index investment, countering the misconception that index investing requires no research [5] Future Directions - The company plans to enhance its product matrix by focusing on three dimensions: refining broad-based products, embracing Smart Beta opportunities, and implementing a "two-step" strategy for new productivity sectors [6] - The refinement of broad-based products will involve detailed operations to capture market opportunities, while Smart Beta products are expected to gain market share as the market shifts towards a more configuration-oriented approach [6] - The "two-step" strategy involves initially launching actively managed funds in emerging sectors before transitioning to index products as market conditions improve [6][7] - The company aims to continuously expand its product offerings to build a competitive and comprehensive product matrix [7]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal supply side is tightening, with coal supply in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions decreasing by 2.3 percentage points week-on-week, and thermal coal supply down by 6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a contraction in supply that may support coal prices [1][3] - Current market coal prices are approaching long-term contract prices, with the market price for 5,500 kcal coal at 674 RMB/ton, close to the long-term contract price of 668 RMB/ton, suggesting limited downside for market coal prices [1][4] Key Insights - High Dividend Yields: Several coal companies have dividend yields exceeding 4%, such as China Shenhua (5%) and Shaanxi Coal (4.5%), indicating potential value for left-side positioning in the sector [1][5] - Downstream Demand Disparity: Electricity demand has decreased, with daily consumption remaining flat year-on-year; however, steel demand has increased by 10% year-on-year, while chemical coal usage has risen by 16% year-on-year [1][7] - International Risks: The unrest in Indonesia may impact the international thermal coal supply chain, necessitating close monitoring of developments [1][8] - Railway Freight Increase: On August 31, railway freight rates were raised, increasing downstream shipping costs by 10-20 RMB/ton, potentially up to 30 RMB for shipments to Yunnan, providing strong cost support for coal prices [1][9] Market Dynamics - Port Inventory: Coal inventories at major Chinese ports are nearing the five-year average, and prices are expected to rise when inventories fall below this average, especially with upcoming holiday supply and heating season procurement needs [2] - Recent Stock Performance: Last week, Anyuan Coal experienced the highest increase at 17%, driven by non-ferrous metal logic, while Shaanxi Coal saw the largest decline, presenting a potential buying opportunity [1][6] Future Outlook - Price Trends: Despite recent declines in port and production prices, downstream demand is expected to rebound post-parade, with power plants considering holiday supply factors and heating season procurement in November, which will support prices [1][10] - Inventory Levels: Current inventory data indicates that major Chinese port inventories are close to the five-year average, suggesting that prices may continue to rise when inventory levels drop below this average, presenting a left-side positioning opportunity [1][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If geopolitical premiums reopen, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads after the improvement of supply and demand [5] - For urea, it is suggested to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [7] - For rubber, a medium - term bullish view is maintained. In the short - term, a neutral - to - bullish approach is appropriate, buying on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [15] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17] - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long - term. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [20] - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate upwards in the long - term [22] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [23] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the crude oil at low prices during the peak season [27] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the PX at low prices after the improvement of downstream performance during the peak season [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium - term [29] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.87%, to $63.86; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.82%, to $67.8; INE main crude oil futures fell 16.40 yuan, or 3.36%, to 472.4 yuan [2] - US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a 0.55% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a 1.60% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a 0.68% increase [2] Methanol - On August 27, the 01 contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of - 122. Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, but enterprise profits were still good. Domestic production started to pick up, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will increase rapidly. The port MTO plant shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. The futures market shows signs of stabilization, but port inventories are still rising rapidly [5] Urea - On August 27, the 01 contract remained stable at 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable with a basis of - 47. Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level, so supply pressure still exists. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer and melamine decreased, and agricultural demand entered the off - season, resulting in weak domestic demand. Exports are advancing, and port inventories are rising again. The main demand variable is exports [7] Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and consolidated. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. As of August 21, 2025, the start - up load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [10][11][12][13] PVC - The PVC01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4949 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 239 (0) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 147 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall start - up rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventories were 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventories were 853,000 tons (+ 41,000). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Downstream domestic start - up is at a five - year low, and export expectations are weak after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. The cost side has weak support [17] Benzene - Ethylene - The spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene fell, and the basis weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, and the futures price followed. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair potential. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate oscillated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall start - up rate of three S oscillated and increased [19][20] Polyolefins Polyethylene - The futures price of polyethylene fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The overall inventory is being destocked from a high level, which will support the price. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films has started. The overall start - up rate has stabilized at a low - level oscillation [22] Polypropylene - The futures price of polypropylene fell. The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical was put into operation, and the propylene supply has returned marginally. The downstream start - up rate oscillated at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but there is high inventory pressure under the background of weak supply and demand, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [23] PX & PTA & MEG PX - The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6940 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 854 dollars. The PX load in China was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some domestic PTA plants had changes such as load reduction, restart, and new production. The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. However, due to the new PTA plant put into operation, PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom [25] PTA - The PTA01 contract fell 46 yuan to 4824 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some plants had load changes. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 22 was 2.2 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 24 yuan to 243 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 9 yuan to 324 yuan. The supply - side unexpected maintenance increased in August, changing the inventory accumulation pattern to destocking, and the PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The EG01 contract fell 9 yuan to 4481 yuan, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4553 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, a 6.2% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had start - up or load - change operations. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure on August 26 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. The cost - side ethylene price rose, and the coal price fell. The industry fundamentals show that overseas and domestic maintenance plants are starting up, and downstream start - up is recovering from the off - season, but the supply is still in excess. The port inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle in the medium - term, and the valuation is relatively high year - on - year, with downward pressure in the medium - term [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the mid-year reporting season, the performance and outlook of internet companies will rapidly reflect market expectations, with a notable shift in policies aimed at curbing excessive competition and low-price subsidies [1] - The market liquidity is abundant, with a short-selling ratio at 15.5%, indicating active long-short trading and potential for short covering in the future [1] - The Hong Kong technology sector has entered a favorable left-side layout period, with negative factors gradually being priced in and fundamental expectations likely to stabilize [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on technology-related companies listed in Hong Kong that are accessible through the Stock Connect [1] - The index comprises 30 constituent stocks, reflecting a high concentration in the industry and purity in technology, aiming to represent the overall performance of technology stocks within the Stock Connect framework [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link C (015740) and Link A (015739) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] - For polypropylene, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [19] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 1.01%, to $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.09, or 1.65%, to $67.04; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.00 yuan, or 0.21%, to 475.9 yuan [1] - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels, a 1.41% decrease; SPR increased by 0.22 million barrels to 403.43 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, a 1.20% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 43.30 million barrels, a 1.02% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract rose 33 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 119 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices have risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production starts are increasing, leading to greater supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract fell 41 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 40 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production starts have turned from decreasing to increasing, and corporate profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the demand side is generally weak. The downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires were weak. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 7 yuan to 5008 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 288 (- 37) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (+8) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, an increase of 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, a decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 327,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 812,000 tons. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [10] Benzene Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and the cost side still provides support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply side is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [12][13] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7275 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is high, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity release plan in August. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The demand side is in the off - season. There is a 450,000 - ton planned capacity release in August. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 70 yuan to 6844 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 837 dollars, with a basis of 43 (- 51) yuan and an 11 - 1 spread of 58 (+10) yuan [18] - **Fundamentals**: The PX operating rate remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. However, due to the new PTA device put into operation, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The valuation has support at the bottom but is limited in the short - term upside. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 44 yuan to 4778 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4690 yuan, and the basis was - 2 (+6) yuan [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA operating rate is 76.4%, an increase of 1.7%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. The supply side may accumulate inventory due to new device production, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 53 yuan to 4477 yuan, the East China spot price rose 49 yuan to 4507 yuan, the basis was 90 (- 3) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (- 10) yuan [21] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side operating rate is 66.4%, a decrease of 2%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 547,000 tons. The short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Report's Core View - Western Lide Fund's Chen Baoguo, with 15 years of securities experience and 5 years of fund management experience, manages 4 funds with a total scale of 1.258 billion yuan. He adheres to reverse investment in the high - prosperity general manufacturing sector, aiming for long - term growth while emphasizing safety margins [2][6]. - Western Lide Jingrui, a representative product, has outstanding short - and long - term performance, maintains growth elasticity, and has good long - term holding profitability. It focuses on the general manufacturing sector, with investment styles shifting and high turnover [2][20]. - The fund manager has strong capabilities in various aspects, including excellent performance in prosperous market conditions, long - term outstanding invisible trading capabilities, and recent prominent industry rotation and stock - selection abilities [2][56]. - The excess returns of Western Lide Jingrui mainly come from stock - selection and industry allocation, and the fund manager's ability circle covers a wide range of general manufacturing fields [2][61]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Western Lide Fund Chen Baoguo: Persisting in Reverse Investment in High - Prosperity General Manufacturing 1.1 Fund Manager's Basic Information: A Veteran with Over 5 Years of Product Management - Chen Baoguo is a master of finance from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, holding multiple positions at Western Lide Fund. He has 15 years of securities experience, 5 years of fund management experience, and currently manages 4 funds with a total scale of 1.258 billion yuan. His in - charge products include Western Lide Huixin 6 - month Holding, Western Lide Green Energy Mix, Western Lide Carbon Neutralization, and Western Lide Jingrui [6]. - The representative product, Western Lide Jingrui, has achieved a total return of 98.69% and an annualized return of 13.57% since Chen Baoguo took over on February 15, 2020 [7]. 1.2 Fund Manager's Investment Framework: Left - hand Reverse Investment in Long - term Prosperous Industries, Emphasizing Safety Margins - Investment philosophy: Seeking long - term logic and growing with the capital market, similar to being an "orchard farmer." The investment strategy involves finding companies with short - term callbacks but good long - term prospects in favored sectors for reverse investment or left - hand layout, while emphasizing safety margins [2][17]. - Stock - selection strategy: Qualitative screening focuses on company governance, platform level, and industry; quantitative analysis selects undervalued stocks with certain long - term prospects from good industries [17]. 2. Return - Risk Characteristics: Balancing Short - and Long - term Returns, Maintaining Growth Elasticity 2.1 Outstanding Performance Since Taking Over, Continuously Maintaining Elastic Returns Recently - Since taking over on February 15, 2020, Western Lide Jingrui has a cumulative return of 98.69%, ranking 9th among similar active equity funds. Its maximum drawdown is within the top 30% of similar products. After the market rebound on September 24, 2024, it still maintained prominent elasticity, with a cumulative return of 43.97% and a maximum drawdown within the top 50% of similar products [21]. - Compared with other high - performing products, Western Lide Jingrui is one of the few funds that focus on the advanced manufacturing field and maintain high elasticity recently [27]. - Western Lide Jingrui ranks 5th in the information ratio compared to the advanced manufacturing index among similar products, with a relatively low tracking error [29]. 2.2 Good Long - term Holding Profitability - As the holding time of Western Lide Jingrui increases, the historical probability of making money and the return rate gradually rise. The probability of making money after holding for five years is as high as 100%, with an average return of 91.4%. In different holding periods, its average return and winning rate exceed those of the Shenwan Advanced Manufacturing Index and the CSI 300 Total Return Index [31]. 3. Fund Holding Characteristics: Growth Investment with High Turnover, Outstanding Stock - selection Ability 3.1 Industry Allocation: Focusing on General Manufacturing, with Recent Industry Allocation Adjustments - Since taking over, Western Lide Jingrui has long focused on the general manufacturing sector, mainly including advanced manufacturing and technology industries. There have been two major industry allocation changes within the general manufacturing sector, with the focus shifting from power equipment to technology recently [34]. - In terms of secondary - industry allocation, it was previously concentrated in power equipment with a new - energy theme and has recently shown prominent characteristics in software development, semiconductors, and computer equipment [36]. 3.2 Investment Style: Growth - style Investment with High Turnover, Recently Tending towards Small - cap Growth - Since 2023, the fund's turnover rate has gradually increased, with the latest annualized turnover rate exceeding 12 times, and the investment style has changed from mid - and large - cap growth to small - cap growth [2][39]. - In the early stage, the fund's allocation was relatively balanced, but since the second half of 2022, it has mainly held small - and medium - cap stocks. The stability of heavy - position stocks has declined, but some stocks have been held continuously for more than three quarters [46][50]. - The heavy - position stock - selection ability is outstanding, and the heavy - position stocks can achieve relatively stable excess returns compared to the industry index [52]. 4. Fund Manager's Ability Circle: Excellent Performance in Prosperous Market Conditions, Long - term Outstanding Invisible Trading Capabilities, and Recent Prominent Industry Rotation, Allocation, and Stock - selection Abilities - The fund manager's investment strategy is suitable for prosperous market conditions, with high elasticity in high - prosperity industries. The product has shown continuous and prominent performance in prosperous market conditions since taking over [56]. - The long - term high turnover rate of Western Lide Jingrui is consistent with the investment strategy of selecting undervalued stocks and selling them in time after value regression. The long - term strong invisible trading ability indicates that the reverse investment strategy can provide stable returns [57]. - In late 2024, the fund manager adjusted the industry and stock allocation structure. The ability to rotate industries and select stocks is the basis for the product's long - term high elasticity and adaptability to prosperous market conditions [57]. 5. Fund Return Contribution Breakdown: Stock - selection and Industry Allocation Contribute Mainly to Excess Returns, with a Wide Stock - selection Ability Circle - The excess returns of Western Lide Jingrui since taking over can be explained by stock - selection and industry allocation, resulting from the investment strategy of selecting high - prosperity industries and undervalued stocks for left - hand layout. During the market decline from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2024, trading also contributed significantly [61]. - The absolute and relative contributions of the automotive and power equipment industries are prominent. Technology industries such as communication, media, and computer also contribute excess returns in most periods, indicating that the fund manager's ability circle covers a wide general manufacturing field [65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping sector, recommending companies such as China Shipbuilding, Sumec, and Yangtze River Shipbuilding [1][2]. Core Insights - The shipping assets are resonating with the commodity market, with signs of stabilization in ship prices. The report highlights the potential for left-side layout opportunities as the Chinese shipbuilding industry begins to outperform its Japanese and Korean counterparts [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand in the express delivery sector, suggesting that leading companies may optimize their market share through pricing strategies [1][2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as supply chain constraints ease, with recommendations for airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 0.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.05 percentage points. The raw material supply chain services saw the largest increase at 4.22%, while the railway transportation sector experienced a decline of 0.50% [3][10]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.81% to 1,663 points, indicating strong performance across various vessel types [3][10]. 2. Shipping Sector Insights - VLCC rates increased by 10% to $26,813 per day, with Middle East routes rising by 16%. The report anticipates continued rate recovery due to increased cargo availability [1][2]. - The report notes that the Capesize vessel rates are rebounding, driven by strong demand for iron ore and coal, despite seasonal expectations [1][2]. 3. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry is maintaining high growth rates, with recommendations for companies like SF Express and JD Logistics. The report suggests that the upcoming policies may optimize logistics costs, benefiting leading firms [1][2]. 4. Aviation Sector - The aviation market is entering a peak season, with limited supply growth and natural increases in passenger volume expected to support airline revenues. Recommendations include major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Cathay Pacific [1][2]. 5. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a TTM dividend yield of 8.11% and Daqin Railway with a yield of 3.97% [21].