生猪产能去化开启，迎 来左侧布局时机 农林牧渔团队 证券分析师：周莎 SAC NO:S1120519110005 目录 01 生猪养殖：左侧布局，静待反转 1 02 种植：粮价渐回升，景气有望修复 03 风险提示 2025年12月31日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 01 生猪养殖：左侧布局，静待反转 2 1.1 旺季不旺，2025Q4猪价为近10年最低，产能调减为主旋律 图2 能繁母猪存栏量变化 图1 2022-2025年月度猪价走势对比（元/公斤） 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2022 2023 2024 2025 3,900 3,950 4,000 4,050 4,100 中国能繁母猪存栏量 万头 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 3 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 1.3 政策引导，被动去产能，未来看高质量发展 据猪易通数据，2025Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4（截止12.21）全国生猪价格分别为15.06/14.53/13.88/11.72元/公斤，猪价逐季下降， 同比分别+4.27%/-1 ...

截至12月23日，A股市场融资余额最新报25145.96亿元，较前一增加148.59亿元。这是自A股两融市场开设以来，融资余额首度站上2.5万亿元，续创历史新 高。 12月25日，券商板块维持小幅红盘震荡，个股多数飘红，截至发稿，东北证券涨超3%，财通证券、锦龙股份涨超1%。400亿顶流券商ETF（512000）场内 价格现微涨0.17%，沿着5日均线小碎步爬升。 | 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 Q 2 > 分时 多日 = | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512000.SHI券商ETFI 2025/11/17 收0.582 幅-1.19%(-0.007) 开0.58回 | | 0.582 +0.001 +0.17% | | | | | MA5 0.591↓ MA10 0.594↓ MA20 0.597↓ MA60 0.604↓ MA120 0.575↑ M▼ ■ | | SSE CNY 10:02:26 交易中 查看L2全景 | | | | | 0.625-> | 0.630 | 净值走势 华宝中证全指证券公 | | | ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 证券行业周报 板块安全边际较高，关注左侧布局机会 1.《行业周报：市场交投保持活跃， 关 注 券 商 估 值 修 复 机 会 》 2025.12.21 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1 -3 -16 绝对收益 -1 -1 0 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/12/19 2025/2/19 2025/4/19 2025/6/19 2025/8/19 2025/10/19 2025/12/19 沪深300 证券Ⅱ(申万) 相关研究： 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：本周非银和券商指数领涨，估值仍处于低位 根据 Wind 数据，本周（12.15-12.19）上证指数上涨 0.03%，沪深 300 指数 下跌 0.3%，创 ...

| | | 分割 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 婴加 九转 面线 工具 (2 > | | 食品ETS (1) | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.50 | | | | | 515710[食品ETF] 15:00 价 0.590 浴饮 -0.001[-0.17%) 均价 0.589 成交量 0 IO... | | | 1.18% | 0.590 | | -0.001 -0.17% | | 0.595 | | | | | | | | 0.59% | SSE CNY 15:00:14 13:00 | | 通用7.4 | | | | | | | | | | | 净值出费 | 华宝中证细分食品饮料产业主题ET | | | | | | asso must about and more of more | | | | MW UN J S | | 圆比 電圧 | 8.61% 圆锥 0.594 | 11347 3925 | | | | | ...

今日早盘，A股三大指数低开低走，科技相关板块集体承压，截至午间收盘，科创板50指数下跌2%。 近期市场震荡下，科创类ETF反而获得资金逆势加仓，例如科创板50ETF（588080）12月以来累计净流 入超过10亿元。 申万宏源证券表示，若2026上半年经济最终结果仍有提升空间，2026下半年稳增长额外发力带来经济边 际改善是大概率。从风格节奏来看，2026年二季度是磨底阶段，科技和先进制造有基本面阿尔法逻辑方 向可能先于牛市启动；2026下半年全面牛，顺周期可能只是启动牛市的资产，最终牛市还是科技和先进 制造占优。 科创板50指数由科创板中市值大、流动性好的50只股票组成，"硬科技"龙头特征显著，半导体行业占比 超65%，指数前五大权重股为寒武纪、海光信息、中芯国际、澜起科技、中微公司，合计占比超40%。 科创板50ETF（588080）实行ETF中最低一档0.15%/年的管理费率，可助力投资者低成本布局科创板核 心龙头企业。 每日经济新闻 ...

| | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | F9 盘航盘后 婴加 九转 画线 工具 ( ( ) | | 食品ETF O | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.595 | | | | 515710[食品ETF] 15:00 价 0.591 器歌 0.004(0.68%) 均价 0.592 周交量 0 IOPV | | | | -4 Annu 18 | 0.591 | | +0.004 +0.68% | | | | | | 2391 North Antional Marce many relation worn 2000 | | | | | SSE CNY 15:00:14 Ititle 净值走势 | 华宝中证细分食品饮料产业主题ET | 通用7 4 | | 0.587 | | | | | | | | 0.00% | 受比 | -30.61% 受差 | -58956 | | 0.583 | | | | | | | | 0.70% | 定行 ...

港股左侧布局的机会到了吗？ 先说结论，港股在当前时点已呈现出较为明显的左侧布局机会，主要在于前期压制市场的多重利空已得 到充分的释放，估值仍处于偏低或合理区间；同时，边际利好因素正在积累，为中长期修复创造了条 件。具体来看： 首先，港股估值优势明显，被视为"全球估值洼地"。从市场位置与估值来看，港股主要指数经历调整 后，安全边际有所提升。 比如，代表香港大盘的恒生指数虽较2024年低点已显著反弹，行业结构更均衡，当前估值在全球主要市 场中仍具吸引力，这种低估值状态为左侧布局提供了较高的安全垫。科技板块，股科技板块无论纵向还 是横向比较，估值都处于历史低位。例如港股通互联网人民币PE-TTM仅25.44倍，位于历史以来 58.45%，意味着比近十年近40%的时间都要"便宜"。 近期港股回调的比较多，转入震荡下行的阶段。科技板块更是首当其冲，自 10 月初高点跌了20%左 右，市场成交量也一路"缩量"，究竟发生了什么？港股未来怎么看？ 其次，支撑左侧布局可行性的驱动因素正在显现。一方面，多数此前压制市场的负面因素释放已相对充 分。中美关系短期不确定性风险降温、海外市场对美联储降息预期的回摆交易已较为充分，以及市场 ...

港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）跟踪国证港股通科技指数，与恒生科技指数相比，龙头权重更集 中。 其中，阿里巴巴、美团在"放缓投入大额补贴"上暂时达成一致，这有助于港股通科技指数从"外卖烧 钱"模式，转向"AI应用"商业化增长逻辑；具体看AI算力基建、模型和应用，以及生态布局，阿里巴 巴、腾讯控股、小米集团均有涉猎。 其中，阿里巴巴AI相关产品收入连续八个季度实现三位数增长，其控股的半导体设计部门平头哥开发 出了一款AU芯片，功能与英伟达的H20图形处理单元（GPU）相当；最新还发布了开源AI模型千问、 AI眼镜夸克；小米布局了智能家居、手机数码、新能源车、机器人业务；腾讯则在第三季度财报电话 会上，首次系统披露微信AI化战略蓝图，明确表示"微信最终会推出一个AI智能体"。 每日经济新闻 未来基本面改善，盈利预期上修叠加估值修复将驱动港股中长期上行，呈现慢牛趋势。 华夏基金数量投资部表示：港股边际利好因素已在累积，当前珍惜左侧布局机会： 1）以AI为代表的中国科技业蓬勃发展，不断取得创新突破；2）"十五五"规划增量产业政策有望带来预 期改善、提振风险偏好；3）未来基本面改善，盈利预期上修叠加估值修复将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer demand as the year-end approaches, with a positive outlook for 2026 [3][10]. - The report highlights a differentiation in the performance of various sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the sector, particularly those with strong growth potential and market positioning [3][10][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.03% this week, with A-shares remaining flat and H-shares up by 0.47% [1]. - The top performers in the sector include Hai Xin Food, Jia Long Co., and Yan Tang Dairy, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis - **Alcoholic Beverages**: The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, with premium brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao expected to gain market share [2][10]. - **Beverages**: The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage recommended for investment [2][14]. - **Food**: The snack segment is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi recommended [2][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Moutai, Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Wei Long, and Luzhou Laojiao, reflecting a diverse range of opportunities across the sector [3][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth trajectories, particularly in the context of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][10][15]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for key companies indicate a positive growth trajectory, with Moutai expected to achieve revenues of approximately 183.5 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][15]. - Other companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Baba Foods are also projected to see significant revenue growth, driven by market expansion and product innovation [15][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The long-term contract prices for domestic thermal coal have been established, with a focus on left-side layout opportunities in the industry [2] - The current price level of coking coal is lower than that of thermal coal, and some coking coal stocks are trading below their net asset value, indicating that market pessimism is already reflected in stock prices [3][67] - The establishment of a monthly adjustment mechanism for long-term contracts is expected to reduce price volatility in the future [3] Industry Fundamentals - Supply and demand are generally stable, with shipping rhythm dominating coal price trends [7] - As of November 28, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton from November 21, while coking coal futures closed at 1067 CNY, down 36 CNY/ton [7] - The operating rate of coal mines remains low, with 91.3% capacity utilization for thermal coal mines, down 7.0 percentage points year-on-year, and 86.0% for coking coal mines, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [7][30] - Demand from the steel and construction sectors continues to weaken, while chemical demand remains high, providing some support [7][30] Key Events - The long-term contract prices for domestic thermal coal were officially released on November 17, with prices for 5500 kcal contracts in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia set at 496 CNY/ton, 548 CNY/ton, and 460 CNY/ton respectively, all higher than the local benchmark prices [7] Price Comparison and Valuation - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal is at a historical low, with the ratio as of November 28 being 1.18, close to the historical minimum of 0.98 [7][27] - The coal industry index PB is at 1.48 times, with a ratio of 0.83 times compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that the current valuation of the coal sector is at a historical median level [7]