Core Viewpoint - Silver has strongly broken out of a symmetrical triangle structure that it had been consolidating in for most of February, with the $92 area now identified as a key resistance level to test [3][8]. Group 1: Price Levels and Breakout Potential - The price is expected to retest the upper boundary around $92.20, which is considered crucial [3][8]. - If silver can break through $92.20 and $92.88, it may encourage sidelined bulls to seek a retest of the historical high of $121.66 set on January 29 [4][10]. - A sustained breakout above $92.88 could lead to long positions, with initial targets set at $95.90, $102, or $112.50, which previously acted as minor support or resistance levels [4][11]. Group 2: Alternative Entry Points and Indicators - For traders unwilling to wait for further confirmation of a breakout, a pullback to $86 may present a potential entry point, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level from the January-February movement [4][11]. - The 50-day moving average is another critical level to monitor; a drop below this could raise doubts about the validity of the triangle breakout and shift the directional bias back to neutral [4][11]. - The RSI (14) is currently above 50 and rising, indicating that upward momentum is beginning to build, while the MACD is close to crossing above the signal line, suggesting a potential shift in momentum [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant decrease in holdings, dropping by 5.14 tons to a total of 1076.18 tons as of February 12, 2026, amid a sharp decline in gold prices due to algorithmic trading sell-offs and profit-taking by investors [5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 12, spot gold prices experienced a drastic drop, reaching a low of $4882.04 per ounce before closing at $4920.88, marking a decline of $163.65 or 3.22% [5]. - The sell-off in gold and silver was attributed to concerns over the viability of massive AI investments, leading to a downturn in U.S. tech stocks and prompting investors to liquidate positions in commodities for liquidity [5]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, as this data could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The overall trend for gold remains optimistic as long as prices stay above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with current prices above all moving averages [7]. - Short-term resistance for gold is identified at $5092.00 per ounce, with a subsequent target at $5598.25 per ounce. A sustained breakthrough of the first resistance level could lead to further upward movement [8]. - On the downside, maintaining above the psychological level of $5000 and the 100-period simple moving average is crucial; a drop below this area could increase downward pressure, with the next support level near $4850 [8]. Group 3: Analyst Outlook - Despite recent setbacks, many analysts expect gold to regain upward momentum, citing ongoing factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift from traditional assets to alternative investments [6]. - JPMorgan Private Bank forecasts gold prices could reach between $6000 and $6300 per ounce by the end of the year, with Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs also maintaining bullish views [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have shown volatility but are currently rebounding, with a recent trading price around $4811.44 per ounce after hitting a support level of $4550, which has provided a solid foundation for upward momentum [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has indicated a positive signal after reaching oversold levels, further supporting the rebound and opening the path for recovering some of the previous losses [1] - Discussions among Ukrainian, European, and U.S. officials have led to an agreement on coordinated military actions in response to any violations of ceasefire agreements by Russia, with meetings scheduled in Abu Dhabi to negotiate an end to the conflict [1] Group 2 - If violations escalate into broader attacks, coordinated military actions involving U.S. forces will be implemented within 72 hours of the initial violation [2] - Gold prices have rebounded from a bullish support level at the 60-day moving average, indicating a potential bottoming out, although the bullish trend has not yet regained strength above key moving averages [2] - The 4-hour market trend shows resistance levels at $4863-$4875 and $4953-$4960, with support levels at $4700-$4713 and $4666-$4676, suggesting a cautious approach before further trading [2] Group 3 - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is below the signal line and zero, reinforcing a bearish outlook, with an expanding negative histogram indicating increased downward momentum [3] - Any further upward movement may refocus on the 23.6% retracement level at $4995.94, while failure to maintain initial support could lead to further consolidation challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global risk appetite has increased following a softening of President Trump's stance on European tariffs and Greenland, leading to a pullback in gold prices from near the historical high of $4900. Meanwhile, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, providing support for the dollar and creating short-term pressure on gold prices. However, market caution prevails ahead of key U.S. economic data, limiting the downside potential for gold, with a medium-term bullish structure remaining intact [1][4]. Technical Analysis - The short-term pullback in gold is considered a normal correction following a strong upward trend. The 100-hour moving average is rising and currently positioned below the price at approximately $4720, serving as significant dynamic support. As long as gold prices remain above this moving average, the overall short-term trend is still bullish [1][4]. - In terms of wave structure, the recovery from a low of $4530 to a high of $4889 has established a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $4800, which acts as the first support. The 38.2% retracement level is near $4750; if this level is breached, it could increase the extent of the adjustment [1][4]. - Indicators show that the MACD remains below the zero line, but the green bars are converging, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. The RSI has retreated to around 46, which is in a neutral zone, allowing for potential directional choices in the future. Overall, as long as the 38.2% retracement level is not effectively broken, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [1][4]. Trading Strategy - Day trading support levels are identified at 4815, 4785, and 4742, while resistance levels are at 4864, 4873, 4880, and 4900. A cautious approach is recommended, with a strategy to take profits when favorable [2][5]. - For intraday trading, resistance levels are set at 4860, 4870, and 4900, with support levels at 4815, 4785, and 4742. Traders are advised to consider light positions upon reaching these support and resistance points, with a suggested error margin of ±2 for initial targets of around 15 points, and a potential breakout target of 30 points [6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a decline, currently trading around $4429.99 per ounce, despite attempts to regain upward momentum supported by the 50-day moving average [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Global risk sentiment is showing signs of fatigue due to rising geopolitical tensions, which may provide support for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. has not significantly impacted market expectations for two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Traders are likely waiting for the U.S. non-farm payroll report to gain more insights into the Fed's rate cut path, indicating a cautious approach before making aggressive bearish bets on gold [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The bullish momentum for gold has weakened, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, but it remains above short-term moving averages and within a two-month recovery trend [2] - The support level at 4425, formed by the 100-hour simple moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, may provide some support for gold prices [2] - The MACD is below the signal line and zero, indicating enhanced bearish momentum, while the RSI is around 40, suggesting limited upward space [2]

Group 1: Economic Situation in Iran - Protests have erupted across multiple cities in Iran, including Tehran and Mashhad, with citizens expressing dissatisfaction over economic conditions [3] - The Iranian economy is facing high inflation, a significant depreciation of the rial, and stagnation in GDP, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions leading to capital flight [4] - The Iranian president has indicated a commitment to economic reforms, focusing on the currency and banking systems to maintain purchasing power [3][4] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a rapid decline, with current international prices at approximately $4,379.3 per ounce, translating to about 988.5 yuan per gram in the domestic market [5] - The recent price movements indicate a bearish trend, with weak support around the 970-990 yuan per gram range, and potential further declines if the support level is breached [5] - A significant rebound in gold prices is unlikely unless there are unexpected positive developments, such as escalated geopolitical tensions or a sudden drop in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [5]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD currency pair has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, influenced by the weakening of the US dollar, reaching around 1.3750 [1] - The Federal Reserve signaled plans to lower the federal funds rate to 3.4% by 2026, while the Bank of Canada indicated that current interest rates should be maintained in the short term [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) remains weak, hovering near a seven-week low of 98.13, as market expectations suggest more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than indicated in the latest dot plot [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar is performing strongly against most major currencies, except for currencies from Australasia, due to the low likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [2] - The Bank of Canada reaffirmed that current interest rates are sufficient to keep inflation near the target of 2%, as long as economic and inflation trends meet expectations [2] Group 3 - The USD/CAD pair has dropped to 1.3760, remaining below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.3921, indicating a bearish short-term trend [5] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28, indicating an oversold condition, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3772 serves as short-term support [5] - If the pair closes below the 1.3772 support level, it may open up further declines towards the 78.6% retracement level at 1.3671 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar, rising over 1.2% from its recent low, marking the third consecutive week of gains, with market attention focused on short-term trends and key resistance levels [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD exchange rate briefly broke through a short-term resistance level before experiencing a correction of approximately 0.6% over four days. Following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, the rate rebounded nearly 1.5% from December's low and is currently testing the upper boundary of a price channel formed at the end of November [3][4]. - The exchange rate is approaching a critical overlap of two technical positions: the daily closing price level corresponding to the October high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the annual high. This overlap is located between 1.1731 and 1.1747, with 1.1747 being a significant observation point. A daily closing price above this level would indicate potential resistance zones at 1.1794 to 1.1813 and 1.1866 [5][6]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.1679, which corresponds to the 100% extension of the previous upward movement, and the next support range of 1.1634 to 1.1641, which includes the November high closing price and the weekly opening price [5][6]. Upcoming Events - The market anticipates several important events next week, including the US non-farm payroll data for November and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. These events are likely to influence market expectations and could lead to short-term fluctuations in the Euro/USD exchange rate [6].

Group 1 - As of November 26, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1,045.43 tons of gold, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On November 26, spot gold rebounded significantly, reaching a high of $4,173.10 per ounce and closing at $4,163.78 per ounce, up $33.16 or 0.80% [2] - Gold is on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains, continuing the strong momentum from October when it surged towards $4,400 [2] Group 2 - Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, such as initial jobless claims and durable goods orders, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations remain unchanged, with an 85% probability of a rate cut in December [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the delayed release of September's durable goods orders data due to a government shutdown limits its market relevance, indicating that gold may react more strongly to unexpected positive data [3] - UBS forecasts that market participants are pricing in a December rate cut, maintaining a positive short-term outlook for gold, with year-end price predictions of $4,200 and mid-2024 predictions of $4,500 [3] Group 3 - On the technical front, gold prices have continued to rise after rebounding from the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,000, confirming the end of the correction since the November peak [3] - The next target for bullish traders is to break through $4,200, with resistance levels at the November 13 high of $4,245, and potential targets at $4,300 and the historical high of $4,381 [4] - If gold prices fall below $4,100, it may test the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4,065, with further declines possible towards $4,000 [4]

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price declined slightly due to the better-than-expected U.S. September non-farm payroll report, which reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December [1] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, indicating stronger employment growth momentum [1] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity but not a collapse [3] Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 4.117%, while the 2-year yield was approximately 3.571%, indicating stable bond yields despite the employment data [3] - The dollar index initially rose to 100.360 before retreating after the employment data was released, which limited the upward momentum for silver [3] - Silver faced selling pressure in the morning session and failed to gain substantial support from the dollar's pullback post-data release [3] Technical Analysis - Silver's upward potential is contingent on maintaining above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of 50.990, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages in a bullish arrangement [4] - If silver prices fall below the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level of 49.947, it may test lower levels at 0.618 retracement of 48.903 and previous low of 49.332 [4] - The current market is in an adjustment phase, with a focus on Fibonacci levels and moving averages to determine future trends [4] Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests a bullish position near the support level of 49.50, with a stop loss at 49.10 and a target range of 50.60 to 51.30 [7] - The overall market sentiment for silver is currently bearish due to strong employment data, stable Treasury yields, and a modest dollar retreat [4][7]