热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 撰文：嘉盛集团资深策略师 David Scutt · 突破2月的三角形结构 · 92美元区域成为关键阻力测试位 · 下行压力减弱，动能改善 责任编辑：朱赫楠 来源：TradingView 无论是想在中国内地市场重新开市前抢跑，还是受上周五美国最高法院对等关税裁决后贸易紧张局势再 度加剧的推动，亦或是两者兼而有之，白银已从其2月大部分时间所盘整的对称三角形中强势突破。传 统观点认为，我们现在可能会看到价格回测上沿92.20美元附近。在我看来，该价位至关重要。 我们已经看到了一系列更低的高点被打破，但如果白银能够突破92.20美元以及92.88美元，该重要价位 与1至2月暴跌幅度的50%回撤位重合，这可能进一步促使场外观望的多头寻求重新测试1月29日创下的 历史高点121.66美元。 如果价格突破并站稳92.88美元上方，可以考虑做多，止损设于92.20美元下方以作保护，初步目标看向 95.90美元、102美元或112.50美元，今年早些时候在，这些价位均曾在今年初的较短时间框架内充当过 次要支撑位或阻力位。历史高点下方的109.34美元也值得关注 ...

09:15 .Il 5G 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1076.18 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2026-02- 1,090 1,080 1.070 1,060 1,050 1,040 2025-12-03 2025-12-22 2026-01-15 2026-02-03 黄金ETF每日持仓变化一览 l= 图表 基本面消息，现货黄金周四亚太和欧洲时段整体维持在5050美元附近窄幅震荡，进入美市盘中，突然暴跌不止，不仅跌破5000美元关口，最低更是触及本周 最低水平。现货黄金一度下跌4.1%，白银暴跌11%。 在外界再次担忧巨额人工智能投资能否真正大规模落地之际，美国科技股走低。黄金和白银价格在疑似算法交易抛售下突然下跌，一些投资者不得不退出包 括金属在内的大宗商品仓位以获取流动性，也有部分资金转向美国国债避险。 周四黄金和白银的部分抛售也源于获利了结，因为此前一轮迅猛上涨在一定程度上受到投机性买盘推动。有业内人士指出，对黄金和白银而言，很大程度上 的交易仍然由情绪和动量驱动。在这样的日子里，它们会表现艰难。 尽管出现小幅反弹，但整体来看，金属价格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have shown volatility but are currently rebounding, with a recent trading price around $4811.44 per ounce after hitting a support level of $4550, which has provided a solid foundation for upward momentum [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has indicated a positive signal after reaching oversold levels, further supporting the rebound and opening the path for recovering some of the previous losses [1] - Discussions among Ukrainian, European, and U.S. officials have led to an agreement on coordinated military actions in response to any violations of ceasefire agreements by Russia, with meetings scheduled in Abu Dhabi to negotiate an end to the conflict [1] Group 2 - If violations escalate into broader attacks, coordinated military actions involving U.S. forces will be implemented within 72 hours of the initial violation [2] - Gold prices have rebounded from a bullish support level at the 60-day moving average, indicating a potential bottoming out, although the bullish trend has not yet regained strength above key moving averages [2] - The 4-hour market trend shows resistance levels at $4863-$4875 and $4953-$4960, with support levels at $4700-$4713 and $4666-$4676, suggesting a cautious approach before further trading [2] Group 3 - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is below the signal line and zero, reinforcing a bearish outlook, with an expanding negative histogram indicating increased downward momentum [3] - Any further upward movement may refocus on the 23.6% retracement level at $4995.94, while failure to maintain initial support could lead to further consolidation challenges [3]

1月22日，随着美国总统特朗普在欧洲关税与格陵兰问题上的立场明显缓和，全球风险偏好回升，黄金 自接近4900美元的历史高位出现回调。与此同时，美联储降息预期被进一步削弱，美元获得支撑，对金 价形成短线压制。不过，在关键美国经济数据公布前，市场保持谨慎，黄金下行空间暂时受到限制，中 期多头结构仍然完好。 技术面：黄金短线回调仍处于强势上涨后的正常修正阶段。100小时均线继续上行，并位于价格下方， 约在4720美元附近，构成重要动态支撑。只要金价维持在该均线之上，整体短期趋势仍偏向多头。 从波段结构看，自4530美元低点至4889美元高点的回升过程中，23.6%斐波那契回撤位位于4800美元附 近，为第一道支撑；38.2%回撤位位于4750美元附近，若该位置失守，可能加大调整幅度。 指标方面，MACD仍位于零轴下方，但绿柱持续收敛，显示空头动能减弱；RSI回落至46附近，处于中 性区域，为后续方向选择保留空间。整体来看，只要未有效跌破38.2%回撤位，金价仍处于高位整理而 非趋势反转。 日内支撑：4815.4785.4742等附近；日内阻力：4864.4873.4880.4900等附近； 黄金策略提示：（稳健为主 ...

此外，交易者可能会选择等待周五发布的美国非农就业报告，以获取有关美联储降息路径的更多线索， 并在此之前为下一步的方向性走势做好准备。因此，在对黄金对进行激进的看跌押注之前，需保持一定 的谨慎。 从技术面来看，金价昨日多头动力减弱，形成阴包阳的反弹见顶看空预期，但目前走势处于短期均线及 中轨上方，走势也维持在近2个月的回升趋势内，故此，也有随时再度走强反弹的预期，另外，日内4小 时走势，ZZ指标已经显示触底，且运行在中轨及60和30等周期均线上方，这暗示下方空间有限，如有 走低触及下方各类均线支撑位置，也是做多的机会。 4425的共振位——由100小时简单移动平均线(SMA)和近期上涨的38.2%斐波那契回撤位组成——可能为 黄金价格提供一些支撑。若果断跌破该水平，可能会引发一些技术性卖盘，并将黄金对拖至4400水平。 同时，移动平均线趋同/背离(MACD)线位于信号线下方且低于零，直方图呈负扩展，指向看跌动能的增 强。 此外，相对强弱指数(RSI)在40附近，处于中性偏看跌并下滑，强调了上行空间的受限。立即的反弹尝 试将面临23.6%斐波那契回撤位，约在4450区域。未能重新夺回该阻力位将限制反弹，而在38. ...

Group 1: Economic Situation in Iran - Protests have erupted across multiple cities in Iran, including Tehran and Mashhad, with citizens expressing dissatisfaction over economic conditions [3] - The Iranian economy is facing high inflation, a significant depreciation of the rial, and stagnation in GDP, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions leading to capital flight [4] - The Iranian president has indicated a commitment to economic reforms, focusing on the currency and banking systems to maintain purchasing power [3][4] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a rapid decline, with current international prices at approximately $4,379.3 per ounce, translating to about 988.5 yuan per gram in the domestic market [5] - The recent price movements indicate a bearish trend, with weak support around the 970-990 yuan per gram range, and potential further declines if the support level is breached [5] - A significant rebound in gold prices is unlikely unless there are unexpected positive developments, such as escalated geopolitical tensions or a sudden drop in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [5]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD currency pair has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, influenced by the weakening of the US dollar, reaching around 1.3750 [1] - The Federal Reserve signaled plans to lower the federal funds rate to 3.4% by 2026, while the Bank of Canada indicated that current interest rates should be maintained in the short term [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) remains weak, hovering near a seven-week low of 98.13, as market expectations suggest more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than indicated in the latest dot plot [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar is performing strongly against most major currencies, except for currencies from Australasia, due to the low likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [2] - The Bank of Canada reaffirmed that current interest rates are sufficient to keep inflation near the target of 2%, as long as economic and inflation trends meet expectations [2] Group 3 - The USD/CAD pair has dropped to 1.3760, remaining below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.3921, indicating a bearish short-term trend [5] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28, indicating an oversold condition, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3772 serves as short-term support [5] - If the pair closes below the 1.3772 support level, it may open up further declines towards the 78.6% retracement level at 1.3671 [5]

受美联储最新货币政策影响，欧元兑美元汇率近期明显走强，从本周低点算起，涨幅已超过1.2%。 截至目前，欧元/美元已连续第三周保持上涨，短期走势受到市场普遍关注。 从技术层面看，当前汇率的焦点集中在上涨趋势中的阻力区域。市场观察显示，汇率收盘价与某一关键水平的关系，可作为判断短期走向的参考；该水平 在本周内的收盘表现，也是观察短期趋势的重要依据。 从4小时图来看，汇率当前正接近两个关键技术位置的重合区域： 一是10月高点对应的日收盘价水平，二是从年度高点回落过程中的61.8%斐波那契回撤位。该重合区域位于1.1731至1.1747之间。 其中1.1747被视为重要观察点，若日收盘价高于该水平，则后续可关注的阻力区间依次为1.1794至1.1813、以及1.1866。1.1794至1.1813区间包含了2025年 高点日收盘价及11月底以来的1.618%扩展位，1.1866则对应年度高点的日收盘水平。 结合日线图来看，欧元/美元此前曾短暂突破，触及短期上涨趋势阻力后经历了约四天的回调，幅度接近0.6%。而在美联储政策公布后，汇率自12月低点 反弹近1.5%，目前正试探11月底形成的价格通道上沿，该位置阻力的有效性 ...

值得注意的是，正如我们昨天在文中提到的，强化降息预期的是，下一任美联储主席的领跑者——白宫 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特——被认为与特朗普支持降低借贷成本的立场一致，从而进一步支撑 金价。 瑞银表示，市场参与者再次开始为12月美国降息定价，继续看好短期前景，年底金价预测为4200美元， 明年年中为4500美元。 从技术面来看，金价自11月初涨势的78.2%斐波那契回撤位4000美元附近反弹后持续走高，突破4100美 元确认了自11月峰值以来的回调已经结束。日线图4小时显示，技术指标维持积极动能，黄金进一步上 涨空间仍存。 上行方面，多头的下一个目标突破4200美元，下一阻力位将是11月13日高点4245美元。突破该位后， 4300美元及4381美元历史高点将成为潜在目标。 下行方面，若跌破4100美元，将打开测试20日简单移动平均线(SMA)的大门，该均线位于4065美元附 近，随后可能进一步回落至4000美元。 【EBC平台风险提示及免责条款】：本材料仅供一般参考使用，无意作为（也不应被视为）值得信赖的 财务、投资或其他建议。 截至11月26日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price declined slightly due to the better-than-expected U.S. September non-farm payroll report, which reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December [1] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, indicating stronger employment growth momentum [1] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity but not a collapse [3] Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 4.117%, while the 2-year yield was approximately 3.571%, indicating stable bond yields despite the employment data [3] - The dollar index initially rose to 100.360 before retreating after the employment data was released, which limited the upward momentum for silver [3] - Silver faced selling pressure in the morning session and failed to gain substantial support from the dollar's pullback post-data release [3] Technical Analysis - Silver's upward potential is contingent on maintaining above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of 50.990, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages in a bullish arrangement [4] - If silver prices fall below the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level of 49.947, it may test lower levels at 0.618 retracement of 48.903 and previous low of 49.332 [4] - The current market is in an adjustment phase, with a focus on Fibonacci levels and moving averages to determine future trends [4] Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests a bullish position near the support level of 49.50, with a stop loss at 49.10 and a target range of 50.60 to 51.30 [7] - The overall market sentiment for silver is currently bearish due to strong employment data, stable Treasury yields, and a modest dollar retreat [4][7]