基本面： 周五（11月21日）现货白银小幅走低，因延迟公布的美国9月非农就业报告表现超预期，削弱了市场对12月美联储降息的预期，贵金属市场买需降温。该数 据促使交易员重新评估短期政策前景，黄金价格同期持平，未能为尾盘白银走势提供支撑。就业数据超预期，美联储降息预期受限美国9月新增非农就业人 数达11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5万人。尽管7月和8月数据被下修，但整体就业增长动能仍超出市场预期。 失业率维持在4.4%，为2021年末以来最高水平。其他劳动力及制造业数据显示经济活动放缓但未崩溃，11月地区工厂订单及出货量回落至收缩区间。国债 收益率持稳，交易员消化数据影响美国国债收益率基本持平，10年期国债收益率报4.117%左右，2年期收益率约3.571%。非农数据公布前收益率小幅上行， 公布后有所回落，但跌幅不足以对贵金属形成实质性支撑。 12月美联储降息的实现需要非农数据显著疲软——而周四公布的数据并未满足这一条件。在收益率持稳而非大幅下行的背景下，白银缺乏上涨动能。美元先 涨后跌，对白银提振有限数据公布前，交易员为就业数据可能的上行风险布局，美元指数走强至100.360。数据超预期公布后，随着收益率降温， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of tariff risks has led to a decline in COMEX gold futures prices, which briefly fell below the $4000 per ounce mark, currently trading around $4025 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Gold-related ETFs have faced setbacks, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 1.65% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) down 1.62% as of 10:05 AM [1] - Major holdings in these ETFs, including Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, Zhaojin Mining, and Shandong Gold, have experienced significant declines [1] - The broader Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) has also seen a decrease of 0.7% [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which marked a significant increase of 23.6% from July to October [1] - However, prices around $4020 per ounce are showing support, indicating a potential for a short-term technical rebound [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The easing of tensions in the US-China trade dispute has improved risk appetite, contributing to the decline in gold prices, which hit a low of $3971 per ounce, the first drop below $4000 since mid-October [1] - Expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially restarting a monetary easing cycle may encourage investors to buy gold [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant supply barrier for Dogecoin (DOGE) around the $0.21 mark, where approximately 10.5 billion DOGE (valued at about $2.2 billion) is located near the breakeven point [1] - Technical analysis indicates that this resistance level coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, creating a dual resistance from both technical and on-chain data [4] - The current price of DOGE is at a critical juncture, with potential upward targets if the resistance is broken [5][10] On-Chain Data - On-chain data shows that the top 1% of addresses holding DOGE have maintained a high holding ratio, indicating that large holders have not significantly reduced their positions, which alleviates some selling pressure [7] - However, this concentration of holdings poses a risk, as a mass sell-off by these large holders could lead to significant price volatility [7] Technical Analysis - DOGE is currently priced at $0.195 and is at a decision point regarding its next movement [10] - If bulls can absorb the $2.2 billion supply at $0.21 and maintain that position, the price could rise to targets of $0.29, $0.45, and even $0.86 [10][12] - Conversely, if the price fails to break through this resistance, it may retrace to test support levels, with deeper support around $0.17 [10][12] Key Levels Summary - Immediate resistance is identified at $0.21, which is a significant supply zone [12] - Breakout targets are set at $0.29, $0.45, and $0.86 [12] - Current support is at the lower boundary of the ascending channel [12]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around 151.1000, with a 0.24% increase from the previous close of 150.7400, as the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to delayed expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - The yen has declined against the dollar for three consecutive days, with limited downside ahead of the upcoming Japanese parliamentary election to appoint a new Prime Minister [1] - The anticipated appointment of Seiko Noda as Japan's first female Prime Minister contrasts with dovish expectations from the US Federal Reserve, which may limit the dollar's gains against the yen [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a positive outlook for USD/JPY, with potential appreciation towards the support level of 151.75, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from recent monthly highs and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - A sustained breakout above this level could lead to further increases towards the 152.00 level and the resistance area of 152.25, which is the intersection of the monthly peak's Fibonacci retracement and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - Immediate support is expected in the 150.50-150.45 range, with further support at 150.25 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the psychological level of 150.00 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Canadian dollar is under pressure due to weak employment data and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1][2] - The Canadian employment numbers for September showed an increase of 60,400, significantly above the expected 5,000 and a recovery from the previous decline of 65,500 [1] - Market expectations suggest a 70% probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in the upcoming meeting on October 29, with implied rates indicating a potential decrease of nearly 25 basis points by year-end [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown bullish momentum after consolidating around 1.3900 for nearly two weeks, driven by rising political uncertainty outside the U.S. [2] - The currency pair has broken above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), extending the upward trend that began from the June low of 1.3538 to a six-month high of 1.4032 [2] - A critical level to watch is the 1.4050 mark; if the pair can maintain above this level, it may advance towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4165, with further potential to challenge the long-term upward trend line around 1.4230 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4313 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD is facing downward pressure, hovering around the 1.3470 area, amid a mild recovery in dollar buying interest, with the July PCE inflation data aligning with market expectations, opening the door for a potential Fed rate cut in September [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is slightly below 50, indicating a weakening bullish momentum as GBP/USD falls below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 1.3490 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3460-1.3440 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 100-day and 200-day moving averages) and 1.3400-1.3390 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) [3]. - Resistance levels are seen at 1.3490-1.3500 (100-day moving average, static level), 1.3540 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), and 1.3600 (static level, round number) [3]. Economic Overview - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the Q2 GDP annualized growth rate to 3.3%, lower than the initial estimate of 3% and market expectations of 3.1% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased from 234,000 to 229,000, slightly better than the market expectation of 230,000 [5]. - The upcoming PCE price index data for July is anticipated to show an overall annual inflation rate stabilizing at 2.6%, with core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.64 against the US dollar (USD), reflecting a decline of 0.06% from the previous close of 0.6478 [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may initiate a monetary easing cycle in November, potentially lowering interest rates by up to 50 basis points due to concerns over slowing economic growth [1] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest a flexible policy approach, with potential for rate cuts in September, influenced by trade policy pressures and signs of a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by the interplay between market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated magnitude of future RBA rate reductions [1] - Short-term technical analysis indicates that if the AUD/USD can break above the key level of 0.6500, it may trigger a technical rebound; however, stronger-than-expected US GDP and PCE inflation data could strengthen the USD and exert pressure on the AUD [1] - The AUD/USD has faced resistance at the kijun-sen (0.6522) and is currently testing the cloud bottom (0.6474), which is also a Fibonacci retracement level [2] - Positive momentum indicators and a potential golden cross formation on the daily chart suggest a slight bullish bias, with targets set at 0.6568 and possibly 0.6625 if upward momentum continues [2] - Conversely, if the AUD/USD falls below the cloud bottom, it may test support levels at 0.6450 and 0.6419 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a range-bound movement due to seasonal factors and market conditions, with support from Japanese importers limiting further strengthening of the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of August 11, the USD/JPY is trading around 147.57, down 0.10% from the previous close of 147.72 [1]. - The market's trading interest has decreased due to the summer off-season and the upcoming Japanese Obon holiday [1]. - The current yield spread between Japanese and U.S. two-year bonds is approximately 294 basis points, while the ten-year spread is about 275 basis points, indicating a narrowing trend [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY has shown resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level since the low in July, suggesting caution for bearish positions [2]. - The daily chart indicates neutral oscillators, with potential resistance at the 147.75 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and the psychological level of 148.00 [2]. - A breakout above 148.00 would suggest a short-term bottom has formed, shifting market sentiment towards bullish [2].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen a significant increase in holdings, reaching 954.8 tons, with a notable rise of 7.74 tons in a single trading day, indicating strong investor interest in gold amid economic uncertainties [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 22, the total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust stand at 954.8 tons, reflecting a substantial increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day [6]. - Over the past two trading days, the cumulative increase in gold ETF holdings has exceeded 10 tons, highlighting a growing trend in gold investment [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 22, spot gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, reaching a peak of $3433.53 per ounce, the highest since June 16, and closing at $3431.66 per ounce, up $34.73 or 1.02% [6]. - The price of gold is currently above all major simple moving averages (SMA), with the 14-day relative strength index remaining firmly above the midpoint, indicating a bullish trend [7]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold - The decline of the US dollar index has been a significant driver for the rebound in gold prices, influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade agreements between the US and other economies such as Japan and the EU [6]. - Concerns over the US economic growth outlook, exacerbated by tariff uncertainties, have led investors to seek refuge in gold, further supporting its price [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Following a strong breakout above the $3400 mark, gold prices are expected to target static resistance at around $3440, with a potential move towards the historical high of $3500 [8]. - Should there be a correction, gold may test the $3377 level, with support likely found around the $3330 area, which coincides with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to rising inflation data and changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][5] - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, which aligns with market expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, with the annual inflation rate rising from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June, leading to a slight adjustment in market expectations for interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures indicate a market expectation of approximately 44 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, down from an earlier 80% probability of a cut in September [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain prudent regarding rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is anticipated to provide further guidance to the market, with potential implications for gold prices depending on inflation signals [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold prices shows a bearish outlook, with the price struggling to break through resistance levels and facing downward pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar [4][5] - Gold prices are currently trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June decline, indicating a lack of upward momentum [4] - The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has lost its upward momentum, and the price is trading above this level but below the 100-period and 200-period SMAs, suggesting potential further declines [5]