Core Viewpoints - The fiscal policy for 2026 indicates limited growth in total fiscal expenditure, with a broad deficit ratio of 8.5% compared to 9% last year, and a growth rate of 1.1% in broad fiscal expenditure compared to 3.7% last year [4][21] - The budget balance will primarily rely on the use of idle funds and tax revenue growth, reflecting a shift towards cross-cycle adjustment in policy [6][21] - There is a clear inclination of fiscal funds towards investment in people, technology, service consumption, and private investment, with infrastructure funding at a new high since 2022 [4][12] Budget Balance - The budget balance is achieved mainly through the use of idle funds and tax revenue growth, rather than debt, indicating a policy shift towards cross-cycle adjustment [6][21] - The increase in the general public budget expenditure is 4.4%, significantly higher than last year's 1%, with a marginal increase of 1 trillion yuan [6][21] - The increase in revenue is driven by historical idle funds and tax revenue, with tax revenue growth of 2.9% compared to a decline of 1.7% last year [21] Sectoral Tilt - Fiscal funds are accelerating towards three main areas: investment in people, technology, and service consumption, with a notable increase in private investment [41] - Investment in people has seen a year-on-year increase of 636.9 billion yuan, with a marginal increase of 148.4 billion yuan, although the momentum has weakened [42] - Technology investment has increased by 406.2 billion yuan year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 310 billion yuan, showing a strengthening trend [44] - Service consumption and private investment have also seen significant increases, with a year-on-year increase of 277.8 billion yuan and a marginal increase of 249.1 billion yuan [46] Reform Focus - The budget report emphasizes three new areas for fiscal and tax system reform: increasing the proportion of state-owned capital revenue, optimizing the consumption tax system, and improving the personal income tax system [15][18] - The proportion of state-owned capital revenue collected is set to increase, with a target of 30% for state-owned enterprise profits to be contributed to public finance [15][16] - There is a potential expansion of the consumption tax to include luxury goods and possibly a sugar tax, which could be implemented within the year [18] - The personal income tax system may be reformed to include property and capital income, which is currently not accounted for, to better regulate income distribution [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, emphasizing the need for high-quality regional economic development and coordination among different regions in China [1][2]. Overall Strategy: Serving the Whole, Systematic Interaction - The 15th Five-Year Plan highlights the upgraded development goals aimed at serving the national unified market and promoting domestic and international dual circulation [2]. - It emphasizes the need for a systematic reshaping of regional economic development, moving from single-point breakthroughs to "advantage complementarity" and "coordinated development" [2][3]. Key Tasks: Coordinated Development, Regional Interaction, New Urbanization Coordinated Development: Restructuring the System - The plan elevates the importance of enhancing regional development coordination and integrates previous strategies into a cohesive framework [5]. - It aims to create a new development pattern characterized by "advantage complementarity" and "functional synergy" among the four major regions [6]. Regional Interaction: Improving Layout, Strengthening Mechanisms - The plan introduces a dedicated chapter on promoting regional interaction, focusing on both "hard connectivity" through infrastructure and "soft connectivity" through cooperative mechanisms [12]. - It emphasizes the need for cross-regional infrastructure development and the establishment of effective cooperation mechanisms to facilitate resource flow [13][16]. New Urbanization: People-Centric, Quality Development - The new urbanization strategy shifts focus from mere population migration to optimizing the quality of urbanization, emphasizing human-centered development [17]. - It includes specific measures for the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations and the modernization of urban areas [18][20]. External Opening: Optimizing Layout, Strengthening Support - The plan prioritizes expanding high-level opening-up, shifting from a focus on scale to a more systematic approach to institutional opening [23]. - It outlines significant changes in regional opening-up strategies, including the upgrade of Hainan Free Trade Port and the enhancement of free trade zones [24][25]. Conclusion - The 15th Five-Year Plan represents a comprehensive approach to regional economic development, emphasizing coordination, interaction, and quality urbanization, while also addressing the need for a robust external opening strategy to adapt to complex global environments [1][2][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a rise in first-hand property sales and ongoing policy relaxations across various regions [1] - The overall market performance shows a decline in the Shenwan Real Estate Index by 4.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index which fell by 2.19% [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on leading firms with strong performance [6] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 4.21%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 2.19%, resulting in a relative return of -2.02% [11] - The report lists the top-performing and underperforming real estate stocks for the week [11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of March 13-19, first-hand property transactions in 38 key cities totaled 27,742 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% and a month-on-month increase of 23.6% [4][22] - The total transaction area was 2.796 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 10.9% but a month-on-month increase of 26.3% [4][22] - Second-hand property transactions in 16 key cities totaled 22,526 units, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% and a month-on-month increase of 15.5% [4] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 186.194 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a depletion cycle of 180.5 weeks [4] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - In the week of March 9-15, land supply amounted to 1,870.8 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 11% [5] - The average land supply price was 887 yuan per square meter, down 37.2% year-on-year [5] - Land transactions totaled 1,961.8 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.3% [5] 4. Real Estate Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 13.666 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, marking a year-on-year increase of 78.41% [5] - Cumulatively, 37.116 billion yuan in credit bonds have been issued this month, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.88% [5] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others [6] - It also indicates that property management companies may see performance and valuation recovery as market demand rebounds [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined, with the yields of bonds maturing in less than 7 years dropping by about 1.25 - 1.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreasing by 0.81bp and 0.45bp respectively, reported at 1.83% and 2.29%. Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.04%, 0.08%, 0.12%, and 0.23% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.43% and fluctuated. In the domestic fundamental aspect, from January to February, social retail and fixed - asset investment rebounded slightly compared to the previous values, industrial growth maintained strong resilience, the supply - demand contradiction eased, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the same period. In February, social financing and credit were higher than market expectations. Under the effect of the Spring Festival date difference, the support of government bonds for social financing weakened; credit showed a structure of weak household and strong enterprise, with weak household credit expansion and improved enterprise investment willingness under policy guidance. Overseas, the tense situation in the Middle East continued. The US believed that after three weeks of the US and Israel's strikes on Iran, the Iranian regime was weakened but its stance became more rigid. As energy prices continued to rise, the risk of "stagflation - like" in the US economy increased, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision in March. Overall, the economy in 2026 had a good start, and the structure of strong supply and weak demand improved. The price level in February exceeded expectations and rose, and the continuous fermentation of the Iranian situation promoted the strengthening of imported inflation expectations, so the pace of PPI turning positive year - on - year might accelerate. Affected by this, the short - term expectation of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut cooled down, the market lacked strong bullish logic support, the bond market sentiment was pessimistic, and it was expected that interest rates would continue the weak and volatile pattern. Structurally, the inter - bank deposit pricing self - regulatory mechanism and the resilience of the capital market provided some support for short - term interest rates, while the long - term faced double pressure from fundamental recovery and inflation expectations, and the yield curve might continue to steepen [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.265 (up 0.12%), 105.995 (up 0.08%), 102.500 (up 0.04%), and 110.980 (up 0.23%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 67,638 (up 11,013), 52,638 (up 216), 39,291 (up 8,159), and 70,870 (up 9,128) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: For example, the TL2606 - 2609 spread was 0.29 (up 0.01), the T2606 - 2609 spread was 0.06 (up 0.03), etc. [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL were 286,564 (up 4,356), 172,424 (down 773), 74,784 (down 496), and 131,297 (up 623) respectively. The net positions of the top 20 long and short positions of each contract also changed [2]. 3.2 Bond Data - **CTD Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 230004.IB (6y), 250025.IB (6y) increased, for example, 230004.IB increased by 0.0824 to 108.2922 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds were 1.2525% (down 0.75bp), 1.3625% (down 1.75bp), 1.5650% (down 0.25bp), 1.6910% (down 0.65bp), and 1.8381% (down 0.38bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.3379% (up 3.29bp), the Shibor overnight rate was 1.3200% (up 0.10bp), etc. [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates were 3.00% and 3.5% respectively, with no change [2]. 3.4 Policy Information - **Ministry of Finance Policy**: In 2026, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including expanding the fiscal expenditure scale, optimizing the government bond tool combination, improving the efficiency of transfer payment funds, optimizing the expenditure structure, and strengthening fiscal - financial coordination. It will also support the construction of a strong domestic market, implement a package of fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand, carry out a special consumption - boosting action, and improve the management of the "negative list" for special bond investment areas [2][3]. - **SASAC Policy**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized focusing on "two important" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance, implementing the "AI +" special action for central enterprises, and accelerating the optimization and adjustment of the state - owned economic layout [3].

Core Viewpoint - The 15th Five-Year Plan outlines China's strategic intentions and government priorities for the period from 2026 to 2030, aiming to achieve comprehensive modernization and establish a solid foundation for socialist modernization [4]. Group 1: Development Environment - The 14th Five-Year Plan period saw significant achievements, with GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan, and a focus on high-quality development and technological innovation [8][9]. - The development environment is characterized by complex changes, with both opportunities and challenges arising from international relations and domestic economic conditions [10][11]. Group 2: Guiding Principles - The guiding ideology emphasizes the importance of Marxism, socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the need for high-quality development, reform, and innovation [14]. - Key principles include maintaining the Party's leadership, prioritizing people's interests, promoting high-quality development, and ensuring effective market and government collaboration [15][16]. Group 3: Main Goals - The plan aims for significant achievements in high-quality development, with GDP growth maintained within a reasonable range and an increase in the contribution of technological progress to economic growth [18]. - It targets a substantial improvement in social welfare, with urban unemployment rates below 5.5% and an increase in per capita disposable income [19]. - Environmental goals include reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% and increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 25% [20]. Group 4: Modernization of Industry - The focus is on building a modern industrial system that emphasizes advanced manufacturing, quality, and green development [22]. - Key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and electronics are targeted for structural upgrades and innovation [24][25]. Group 5: Emerging and Future Industries - The plan promotes the development of strategic emerging industries, including information technology, new energy, and biotechnology, to create new economic growth points [29][30]. - Future industries such as quantum technology and brain-computer interfaces are identified as key areas for investment and development [30]. Group 6: Infrastructure Development - A modern infrastructure system is to be established, focusing on transportation, energy, and digital infrastructure to enhance connectivity and resilience [38][41]. - The transportation network will be improved with the construction of high-speed rail and modern airports, while energy infrastructure will focus on clean and renewable energy sources [39][41].

Group 1: Macro Policy - The government work report indicates a shift from planning to the implementation of a new model for real estate development, emphasizing the need for systemic coordination among various policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of advancing foundational systems and supporting policies in real estate, focusing on reforms in land and fiscal systems [6]. - The emphasis on proactive macro policies aims to enhance the effectiveness of economic governance and ensure that various economic and non-economic policies work in concert [6][7]. Group 2: Housing Market - The policy focus has shifted towards "de-stocking" and "optimizing supply," with a systematic approach to asset operation and long-term service in the housing market [9]. - The report includes housing security measures for newly married and multi-child families, indicating a structural and precise approach to housing policy aligned with national birth encouragement strategies [9]. - The construction standards for "good houses" now include quality improvement projects and enhanced property service quality, reflecting a shift towards long-term community operation and high-quality comprehensive services [9]. Group 3: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is identified as a key strategy for revitalizing existing assets, with a focus on transforming old neighborhoods and underutilized properties [11][12]. - The report outlines the need for effective investment growth driven by market forces, with a proposed central budget investment of 755 billion and 800 billion in special long-term bonds for infrastructure projects [11]. - Long-term mechanisms for government guidance in urban renewal projects are emphasized, including debt management and new policy financial tools to attract social capital [12]. Group 4: Commercial Real Estate - The commercial real estate sector is undergoing significant transformation, driven by new urbanization and high-level financial openness, with a focus on broadening financing channels and embracing new business models [13][14]. - The report stresses the importance of deepening capital market reforms to enhance equity financing and improve the exit channels for private equity and venture capital [13]. - The development of diverse new spatial formats, such as industrial and business communities, is encouraged, reflecting a shift towards integrated and interactive mixed-use developments [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in sales data following the two sessions, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][7] - The government is focusing on policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve the quality of housing supply, which may positively impact the market [7][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 4.09%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.07%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [4][12] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of February 27 to March 5, 2026, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 18,605 units, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6% but a month-on-month increase of 161.4%. The total area sold was 2.357 million square meters, down 18.4% year-on-year but up 235.9% month-on-month [5][21] - The total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,477 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% and a month-on-month increase of 145.7%. The total area sold was 1.605 million square meters, down 26.8% year-on-year but up 150% month-on-month [5][40] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - During the week, 1,277.8 million square meters of land were supplied, with an average price of 1,732 yuan per square meter. The total land transaction area was 2,147.9 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1,998.5% [6] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 10.55 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36.26% but a month-on-month increase of 1,821.68% [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with 109 major projects aimed at building a modern industrial system, including 23 significant projects related to transportation, energy, and infrastructure [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the expected GDP growth of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, alongside a focus on new urbanization and regional coordinated development strategies [3][12]. - The report identifies a recovery in corporate profitability driven by cyclical trends, particularly in the steel structure sector, and suggests a favorable investment window for companies in this area [3][19]. Industry Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 0.7%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which fell by 1.07% [4][6]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week included International Engineering (+1.38%), Infrastructure State-Owned Enterprises (+1.26%), and Ecological Landscaping (+0.49%) [3][6]. - Year-to-date, the top-performing sub-industries were Steel Structure (+25.15%), Professional Engineering (+23.05%), and Infrastructure Private Enterprises (+11.53%) [3][6]. Key Company Developments - Shenghui Integration reported a net profit of 154 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.91% [3][15]. - Donghua Technology signed a contract for a green ammonia project worth 2.026 billion yuan, representing 22.86% of its 2024 revenue [3][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Honglu Steel Structure and China Chemical in the cyclical recovery phase, as well as undervalued state-owned enterprises such as China Energy Engineering and China Railway [3][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the achievements and progress made during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting China's commitment to high-quality development and modernization under the leadership of the Communist Party, while also addressing the challenges faced in both domestic and international contexts [2][5][18]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5% in the past year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with urban employment stable and 12.67 million new jobs created [3]. - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, and the country maintained a balanced international payment situation with significant growth in foreign trade [3]. - Grain production reached 1.43 trillion jin, and the implementation of free education for one year benefited 14 million children [3]. Technological and Industrial Development - Significant advancements in technology and innovation were noted, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.4% and 9.2%, respectively [4]. - The production of industrial robots and integrated circuits grew by 28% and 10.9%, while the annual production of new energy vehicles exceeded 16 million [4]. Policy Responses and Economic Stability - The government implemented proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize economic operations, including fiscal and monetary measures to support employment and market stability [7][29]. - A series of new initiatives were introduced to counter economic downward pressure, including adjustments in interest rates and the promotion of consumption [7][29]. Innovation and Modernization - The focus on innovation-driven development led to a 10.8% increase in technology contract transaction volume, with R&D expenditure intensity reaching 2.8% of GDP [8]. - The digital economy's core industry value added accounted for over 10.5% of GDP, reflecting the integration of technology and industry [8]. Reform and Opening Up - The government deepened reforms and expanded opening up, with measures to enhance market access and streamline investment processes [9][41]. - The establishment of a unified national market and the promotion of foreign investment were key strategies to enhance economic resilience [9][41]. Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation - The government emphasized rural revitalization and the continuation of poverty alleviation efforts, with over 30 million people employed in rural areas [10][43]. - Agricultural production capacity was prioritized, with initiatives to stabilize grain production and improve food security [43]. Environmental Sustainability - Efforts to promote green and low-carbon development included a 4.4% reduction in PM2.5 levels and an increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to 21.7% [12]. - The construction of renewable energy projects and the implementation of pollution prevention measures were highlighted as part of the commitment to ecological improvement [12].

Group 1 - The core economic indicators for 2025 include a GDP growth of 5%, urban employment increase of 12.67 million, and a grain production target of 1.43 trillion jin [1] - Over the past five years, the average annual GDP growth was 5.4%, with manufacturing value added maintaining the world's largest scale for 16 consecutive years [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a GDP growth within a reasonable range, with R&D expenditure increasing by over 7% annually and a reduction of carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% [1] Group 2 - For 2026, the economic growth target is set at 4.5% to 5%, with urban employment expected to exceed 12 million and a consumer price increase of around 2% [1] - The budget deficit is planned at around 4%, with an increase of 230 billion yuan compared to the previous year, and public budget expenditure expected to reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time [1] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is proposed at 1.3 trillion yuan, along with 440 billion yuan in local government special bonds [1] Group 3 - The government plans to implement a rural and urban resident income increase plan, focusing on low-income groups and improving social security systems [2] - A special long-term bond of 250 billion yuan is allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [2] - Investment plans include 755 billion yuan for central budget investments and 800 billion yuan in long-term special bond funding for infrastructure projects [2] Group 4 - The establishment of a national unified market will involve capacity regulation, standard guidance, and quality supervision to address "involution" competition [3] - The government aims to expand pilot programs in sectors like telecommunications and biotechnology to enhance openness [3] - Initiatives for rural revitalization include extending land contracts and conducting a national agricultural census [3]