Group 1: US Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 106,000 and the previous value of 139,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of better-than-expected results [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring uncertainties [1] - Following the non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut diminished significantly, with the probability dropping from 98% to approximately 80% [1] Group 2: Japan Wage Negotiations - Japan's average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, with small enterprises seeing a growth of 4.65% [2] - The wage growth reflects a tight labor market, potentially supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, although persistent inflation pressures may limit consumer spending and corporate profit margins [2] - Global investors are reducing long positions in the yen due to various short-term challenges, including slow progress on US-Japan trade agreements and uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections [2] Group 3: US Banking Sector - All 22 banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the 4.5% regulatory requirement [3] - Major banks announced increased dividends and stock buyback plans, with Goldman Sachs raising its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, reflecting its strong capital position [3][4] - The banking sector's performance has led to record highs in bank stock prices, with Goldman Sachs' market capitalization surpassing $220 billion [4] Group 4: EDA Software Market - The US government lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, allowing them to fully resume services to Chinese clients [5] - These three companies dominate the EDA market, holding a combined market share of 82% in China, with Synopsys at 32%, Cadence at 30%, and Siemens at 13% [5] - Following the announcement, Cadence and Synopsys saw stock price increases of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $170 billion [5] Group 5: Oracle and OpenAI Partnership - OpenAI has agreed to lease significant computing power from Oracle, totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts, which is enough to power millions of American homes [6] - Oracle's stock price rose over 3%, reaching a new high of $237.03, as the company continues to expand its cloud computing business, particularly targeting AI clients [6][7] - The partnership is part of a larger $500 billion "Star Gate" initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI, aimed at enhancing cloud computing capabilities [6]

智通财经APP获悉，全球投资者正在逐步结束对日元大幅升值的押注，因为日本央行态度谨慎、贸易战持续以及持 有日元的成本过高，这些因素使这一今年最热门的交易变得不那么有利可图。虽然大多数分析师和实盘投资者仍坚 信，随着日本逐步摆脱超低利率政策，日元最终会升值。但与此信念相悖的是，短期内存在诸多不利因素，包括与 美国的贸易协议进展缓慢以及日本全国大选的不确定性。 日本央行暗示在日本央行完全了解美国总统特朗普大规模关税措施的影响之前，今年不会再加息(此前已于 1 月加 息)，随后，货币政策已成为日元面临的最大难题。 伦敦Marlborough的固定收益经理James Athey减少了日元兑美元的多头仓位，因为他认为该货币的短期走势以及日本 央行的"顽固态度"是不利因素。他说道："最终，我们仍然认为日元存在众多长期利好因素，只是需要在这一不确定 性和波动性中管理好这一过程而已。" 美国市场监管机构的每周数据显示，投资者仍持有价值 114.1 亿美元的净多头日元头寸，尽管这一数额已大幅低于 4 月底创下的 157 亿美元的纪录水平。 由于日本利率较低以及大量海外投资，日元历来对海外利率变化十分敏感。过去几年美国和日本利率 ...

日本央行审议委员高田创：央行将审慎评估关于美国政策的投机是否可能导致日元升值，从而对日本企 业利润造成冲击。 ...

在利率政策预期方面，唐雨旋认为日本央行年内仍存在政策转向空间。尽管4月核心CPI同比涨幅回落至 3.2%，但薪资增长持续性与服务业通胀粘性构成潜在推力。"市场忽视了一个关键变量：若美联储在9月议 息会议后维持利率不变，美日利差收窄压力将迫使日本央行重新评估收益率曲线控制政策的可持续 性。"她特别指出，2024年12月那次25个基点的加息周期中，日本央行对美联储政策节奏的跟随特征已十 分明显。 摩根大通私人银行全球市场策略师唐雨旋指出，美日贸易谈判进程迟滞叠加关税政策持续波动，正形成制 约日本央行政策调整的双重枷锁。她强调，当前美元兑日元汇率虽暂处日本央行隐性干预区间下方，但中 东地缘冲突升级已使布伦特原油价格突破85美元/桶，这对原油进口依存度超90%的日本经济构成实质成本 压力。"能源输入性通胀与贸易条件恶化的叠加效应，正在重塑日本央行的政策权衡框架。" 外汇策略层面，唐雨旋提出差异化的日元配置逻辑。"日元结构性升值趋势的确立，需要突破三重阻力 ——美日实际利差收窄、日本经常账户改善、海外资本回流。"她分析称，当前10年期美日国债利差仍维 持在180个基点的高位，持有日元的负利差成本年化约1.2%，这使得投 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Holdings indicates that rising yen yields are prompting Japanese investors to withdraw from U.S. assets, alongside implicit exchange rate pressures from Washington, which may lead to a 6% appreciation of the yen against the dollar in the coming months [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - Nomura recommends shorting the USD/JPY pair, targeting a decline from approximately 145 yen to 136 yen by the end of September [1] - The steady pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is expected to encourage domestic investors to allocate more to local bonds rather than overseas bonds [1] Group 2: Trade and Market Sentiment - Concerns over a depreciating yen, particularly during sensitive bilateral trade negotiations, may exacerbate U.S. worries regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] - Analysts do not anticipate any symbolic foreign exchange agreements between the U.S. and Japan, but the market still expects a tacit understanding regarding a weaker dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury has urged the Bank of Japan to continue tightening its monetary policy to address domestic economic fundamentals, including economic growth and inflation, and to support the yen's value against the dollar [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury's Position - The U.S. Treasury's semi-annual currency report suggests that Japan should continue its monetary tightening to normalize the yen's weakness against the dollar and to achieve structural rebalancing in bilateral trade [1]. - This report marks the first currency assessment of Japan since Trump returned to the White House, potentially fueling market speculation about a rate hike by the Bank of Japan later this year [1][7]. Group 2: Japan's Response - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu stated that the details of monetary policy will be left to the Bank of Japan, emphasizing that he will not comment on foreign government opinions [4]. - Japan's current benchmark interest rate is only 0.5%, significantly lower than other developed countries, despite being the G7 nation with the highest inflation rate [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Former top Japanese currency diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa indicated that the structural convergence of U.S.-Japan interest rates is the core logic behind the potential strengthening of the yen, rather than political pressure from the White House [5]. - The market is witnessing a resurgence of bets on yen appreciation, with hedge funds and long-term investors re-establishing positions at a five-year high, driven by speculation about Japan's currency discussions in trade negotiations [7]. Group 4: Economic Context - Both the U.S. and Japan share a common interest in avoiding excessive currency fluctuations that could harm exports or exacerbate inflation, suggesting a gradual appreciation of the yen may be on the horizon [6].

金十数据5月28日讯，三菱日联银行分析师德里克・哈尔彭尼在一份报告中指出，随着超长期日本国债 收益率上升，日本央行可能不会转向降息，日元短期内或走强。在当前节点，我们怀疑日本央行是否接 近任何政策立场的转变，而国际因素将在近期继续推动日元升值。周二有报道称日本可能调整债券发行 计划后，超长期日本国债收益率大幅下跌。然而，周三40年期日本国债拍卖结果令人失望，导致收益率 再次上升。 三菱日联：日元短期内或走强 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：通常而言，日元升值可能会压低进口成本和价格。 ...

美国于4月份启动了各国统一的10%的对等关税。对日本汽车和钢铁等产品加征25%的关税。汽车出口 额虽然有所减少，但出口量增加11.8%，达到12.5817万辆，已连续4个月增长。钢铁出口额为180亿日 元，减少29.0%，出口量也减少了20.3%。 财务省的负责人就是否存在抢搭末班车需求和上年比较基数较高形成的下降表示，"没有看到称得上急 剧增减的情况，关税政策的因素尚不清楚"。该负责人指出4月份汽车数量本身就在增加。 4月日本对美出口额1.7708万亿日元，减少1.8%，其中汽车出口额5130亿日元，减少 4.8%…… 日本财务省5月21日发布的4月份贸易统计速报显示，对美国的出口额为1.7708万亿日元，同比减少 1.8%。这是4个月来首次减少。这可能是受到了特朗普政府4月份启动的对等关税和对汽车加征关税的 影响。4月日本对美汽车出口额为5130亿日元，同比减少4.8%。 4月份的日本对全球整体的贸易收支逆差1158亿日元，3个月来首次出现逆差。出口增长2.0%，达到 9.1571万亿日元，进口减少2.2%，降至9.2730万亿日元。半导体的电子零部件、食品和医药品的出口有 所增长，但煤炭和原粗油的进口有 ...

导读： 2024财年岛津营收连续第五年创下历史新高，达到5390亿日元（约合人民币268.8亿元），同比增长5%。 特别提示 微信机制调整，点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 近日，岛津披露了2 0 2 4财年（2 0 2 4年4月1日至2 0 2 5年3月3 1日）财报，尽管2 0 2 4财年压力重重，但其交出的答卷仍然颇具"含金量"。 财务数据显示，2 0 2 4财年岛津营收连续第五年创下历史新高，达到5 3 9 0亿日元（约合人民币2 6 9 . 6亿元），同比增长5%。同期净利润同比下降 1%至7 1 7亿日元（约合人民币3 5 . 8亿元）。 在第四季度（2 0 2 5年1月1日至2 0 2 5年3月3 1日），岛津营收和利润均创下新高：营收同比增长6%达1 5 4 8亿日元（约合人民币7 7 . 4亿元），利 润同比增长1 2%为2 4 7亿日元（约合人民币1 2 . 3亿元）。 • 除中国外，其他市场均实现增长 （注：右饼 图外环为2 0 2 4 财年岛津各地区收入 分布 ，内 环为2 0 2 3年 ） 从区域市场来看，日本依然是岛津公司 ...