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瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250814
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 10:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,287 yuan/ton. Supply: PE output increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 661,100 tons. Demand: The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.4% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory: Producer inventory rose 19.09% to 515,400 tons, social inventory fell 1.22% to 568,700 tons, and total inventory pressure is not significant. Domestic PE's next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start in mid - August. Due to the leap June, domestic greenhouse film demand is delayed, extending the downstream off - season. Food and daily chemical packaging film orders are accumulating sporadically, mainly for rigid demand. Cost: OPEC+ production increase impact continues, IEA predicts intensified oil supply - demand imbalance, and the upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders makes international oil prices fluctuate weakly. For L2509, pay attention to the support around 7,200 yuan/ton; for L2601, focus on the support around 7,300 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton. The main contract is about to switch to L2601 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,343 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the trading volume was 187,511 lots, and the open interest was 303,896 lots, an increase of 91,334 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 56. The buy orders of the top 20 futures positions were 322,688 lots, a decrease of 3,077 lots; the sell orders were 339,408 lots, and the net buy orders were - 16,720 lots, a decrease of 1,438 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,313.04 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7,398.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.24 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis was 26.87, with a change of 0.04 [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.31 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77; CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia was 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 84.08% [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 49.3%, that of pipes was 29%, and that of agricultural film was 13.07% [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 11.89%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 14.8%, an increase of 0.19% [2] 3.8 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene output was 661,100 tons, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period. From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 515,400 tons, an increase of 19.09% from the previous period; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous period [2]
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250811
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 13:26
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 81,000.00 | +4040.00↑ 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -128,116.00 | +39445.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 317,676.00 | -3030.00↓ 近远月合约价差(日,元/吨) | -2,000.00 | -340.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单(日,手/吨) | 18,829.00 | +2386.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价(日,元/吨) | 74,500.00 | +2600.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价(日,万元/吨) | 72,300.00 | +2500.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -6,500.00 | -1440.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价(日,美元/吨) | 0.00 | -780.00↓ 磷锂铝石平均价(日,元/吨 ...
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250807
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 10:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed - related industries, including futures, spot, upstream, industry, and downstream situations. It offers short - term trading suggestions for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil based on various factors such as supply, demand, and market trends [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and there is a seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the domestic market, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, and abundant vegetable oil supply restrain prices. However, the decrease in the oil mill operating rate and less rapeseed purchase in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The short - term trend is range - bound, and short - term participation is advised [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9496 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) was 669.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders also decreased. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed differently, with rapeseed oil unchanged and rapeseed meal increasing by 2753 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu remained unchanged at 6000 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.55 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil increased, and the spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged. The price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, while the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production prediction increased slightly, while the domestic rapeseed import quantity decreased by 15.1 tons to 18.45 tons. The import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 4 tons to 15 tons, and the import quantity of rapeseed meal increased by 7.56 tons to 27.03 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 5 tons to 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 1.59 percentage points to 16.52% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal and regional inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed. Coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 10.65 tons, and coastal rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 2.7 tons. The inventories in different regions such as East China and Guangxi also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the monthly social retail sales of catering also increased [2]. Key Points - **Market Trends**: The rapeseed futures in ICE closed slightly lower due to the lukewarm vegetable oil market and Canadian rainfall. The good condition of US soybeans and the high inventory of domestic soybean meal suppressed the price of rapeseed meal. The change in the weather in Canada and the possible resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia affected the supply of rapeseed [2]. - **Suggestions**: For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended due to the complex market situation and large price fluctuations [2]. - **Focus**: It is necessary to focus on the rapeseed operating rate and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].
湘财证券晨会纪要-20250805
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-08-05 03:36
Financial Engineering - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations from July 28 to August 1, closing at 3559.95 with a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous week [2] - The Shenzhen Composite Index also saw a decline, with a drop of 1.58% and a closing value of 10991.32, alongside reduced trading volume [2] ETF Performance - The 50ETF opened at 2.917 and closed at 2.876, reflecting a decrease of 0.040 or 1.37%, with a trading volume of 10.865 billion [3] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF opened at 4.203 and closed at 4.133, down by 0.070 or 1.67%, with a trading volume of 17.173 billion [3] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF opened at 6.365 and closed at 6.287, showing a decrease of 0.078 or 1.23%, with a trading volume of 6.109 billion [3] Options Market - From July 28 to August 1, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while total open interest increased, with a PCR of 0.84, down 0.14 from the previous week [4] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF options also saw a decrease in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 0.89, down 0.14 [4] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF options experienced a reduction in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 1.07, up 0.06 [4] Volatility Analysis - Short-term volatility has slightly increased, with monthly volatility trending upwards, while implied volatility has been declining throughout the week [5] - The implied volatility levels for the 50ETF and 300ETF have shown a downward trend, indicating increased market expectations for future volatility [5] Investment Recommendations - The market has shown varying degrees of decline, with all three options benchmarks dropping over 1%, and the PCR ratios indicating a decrease for the 50ETF and 300ETF, while the put option ratio for the 500ETF has risen [6] - Given the current market conditions and the shift in implied volatility curves, a cautious stance is recommended for small-cap growth stocks, while larger blue-chip stocks like the 50ETF and 300ETF may be more favorable [6]
两大新能源金属期货来了!广期所最新发布
券商中国· 2025-07-31 15:27
Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Guangzhou Futures Exchange regarding the solicitation of opinions for platinum and palladium futures and options contracts aims to provide effective risk management tools for related industries, promoting high-quality development of the industrial chain [2][10]. Summary by Sections Announcement Details - The solicitation includes multiple documents such as the draft contracts for platinum and palladium futures and options, along with business rules [3]. - The trading codes for platinum and palladium futures are PT and PD, respectively, with a trading unit of 1000 grams per contract and a minimum price fluctuation of 0.05 yuan per gram [3]. Contract Specifications - The contract months are set for February, April, June, August, October, and December, with the last trading day being the 10th trading day of the contract month and the last delivery day being the third trading day after the last trading day [4]. - The delivery method is physical delivery, with a delivery unit of 1000 grams (net weight) [4]. Delivery and Risk Control - The delivery methods for platinum and palladium futures will follow established practices in the futures market, including spot-to-futures, rolling delivery, and one-time delivery [5]. - A brand delivery system will be implemented, requiring registered brands for delivery products, with specific procedures for inventory management [5]. Position Limits - For platinum contracts, if the open interest is less than or equal to 6000 lots, the position limit for a single client is 600 lots; if greater, the limit is 10% of the open interest [6]. - For palladium contracts, if the open interest is less than or equal to 3000 lots, the position limit is 300 lots; if greater, the limit is also 10% of the open interest [6]. Market Context - The demand for platinum and palladium is increasing due to their roles in green industries, particularly in automotive catalytic converters and new energy sectors [7]. - The supply-demand relationship for platinum and palladium is tightening, leading to increased price volatility and a growing need for hedging tools [8]. Price Trends - Year-to-date, platinum prices have shown a significant upward trend, surpassing $1400 per ounce, marking a rise of over 50% this year, while palladium prices have increased by over 30% [9]. - The global supply of platinum has remained stable at around 220-230 tons, while palladium supply is around 280-300 tons, with supply constraints influenced by geopolitical issues and energy shortages [9]. Future Developments - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange plans to refine the contracts and rules based on feedback to ensure they align with industry needs and expedite the launch of platinum and palladium products [9].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250731
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 09:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the high-quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Domestically, the high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. The future decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal reduction substitution also reduce demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand is offset by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market fluctuates greatly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, high - frequency data shows that palm oil production increases while exports decline, which restricts palm oil prices. However, increased exports from Indonesia, low inventory, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure in rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. But the reduction in the oil - mill operating rate and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply - side pressure. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9510 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 696.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.9 Canadian dollars [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 61 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread is 288 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 194,637 lots, down 20,837 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 442,990 lots, down 3,790 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The top 20 net long positions of rapeseed oil are 16,891 lots, down 7,830 lots; the top 20 net long positions of rapeseed meal are 29,067 lots, down 6,136 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,487 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 1,200 sheets, an increase of 1,200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of rapeseed is 4,942.03 yuan/ton, down 33.88 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: The oil - meal ratio is 3.61, down 0.08 [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 89 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual global rapeseed production is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons [2]. - Mill inventories: The total weekly rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Regional inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.55 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 56.27 tons, down 2.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 33.41 tons, down 1.72 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.55 tons, down 0.05 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 26.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.27 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 tons, an increase of 1.11 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly feed production is 2,762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, an increase of 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.6%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.61%, up 0.5 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 18.97%, up 0.72 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.27%, up 0.21 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.66%, up 0.75 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.41%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 30, ICE rapeseed futures fell due to the weakening of CBOT soybean oil futures and good weather in western Canada. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 5.70 Canadian dollars at 696.60 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January rapeseed futures closed down 5.00 Canadian dollars at 707.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the current good weather in US soybean - producing areas leads to a high good - rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which restricts the market price. The import of soybeans in China has increased, and the short - term supply is loose, putting pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support. The aquaculture peak season boosts rapeseed meal demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is also concerned about Sino - US trade negotiation news. The price of rapeseed meal continues to rise due to trade policy uncertainties [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the good growth conditions of Canadian rapeseed and the possible resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade put pressure on the market. The MPOb report shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, which restricts palm oil prices, but news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sector is positive for the oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and high inventory of rapeseed oil mills restrict the price. However, the decrease in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure. Recently, rapeseed oil has performed weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9563 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5153 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 71 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 312 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 241,486 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 14,661 lots, down 3403 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 548,829 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 35,096 lots, down 5186 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, down 434 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 4997.41 yuan/ton, up 10.26 yuan [2]. - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 97 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1340 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 270 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 tons, down 15.37 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 tons, up 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 tons, up 4.13 tons [2]. - Inventory and提货量: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.25 tons, down 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.2 tons, down 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 58.45 tons, down 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 38.04 tons, up 2.46 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5.6 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 28.2 tons, down 1.1 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 tons, up 1.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.46 tons, up 0.14 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.89%, up 2.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.85%, up 2.06 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.18%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.14%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.75%, down 0.18 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed: On July 18th, the ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly but were far below the daily high due to the decline in US soybean oil futures and favorable Canadian crop weather [2]. - US soybean: As of July 13th, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250717
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 11:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - International corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth condition and high output prospects of US corn. In the domestic market, the auction of imported corn shows a downward trend in trading volume and premium, leading to a weakening price. Corn futures prices have been falling from high levels recently [2]. - Corn starch industry's supply pressure has decreased due to continuous production losses and low operating rates. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, resulting in a still loose supply - demand situation. Corn starch prices have declined recently following the fall of corn prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2296 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 56 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 18280 hands, up 2330 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 184971 hands, down 450 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 350 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2646 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 48 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14647 hands, down 571 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 13094 hands, down 2700 hands [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 424.5 cents/bushel, up 5.25 cents; the total position is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.12 yuan/ton, up 0.2 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1901.84 yuan/ton, down 0.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.12 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 34 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2441.33 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 139 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecast: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2]. - Corn sowing area forecast: The predicted sowing area in the US is 35.37 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; at northern ports is 353 tons, down 17 tons; the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, up 0.9 tons [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 19 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; in Hebei is - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 72 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, up 0.15% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.09%, down 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.95%, down 0.08% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.5%, up 0.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.5%, up 0.1% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn from July 1 - 10, 2025 to be between 900,000 and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]
30年期美债收益率突破5%,长期市政债也暴跌,看空情绪弥漫美债市场
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-16 00:50
Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is a growing concern over tariffs leading to increased inflation, which has prompted investors to increase their bearish bets on U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds, which have seen yields surpass 5% [1][5] - A significant increase in bearish positions has been noted, with traders betting that the 30-year Treasury yield will rise to approximately 5.3% within about five weeks, with total premiums for related options reaching $10 million [3] - The options market is reflecting a pessimistic outlook, with a surge in demand for hedging against rising yields and further selling of long-term bonds, as indicated by the highest level of option premiums in a month [4] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently exceeded 5%, marking a new high since early June, indicating a return to the high range of long-term interest rates for the year [5] - The skew indicator for the 30-year Treasury bonds has sharply shifted towards bearish options premiums over the past week, indicating a lack of meaningful incremental demand to support long-term bonds despite higher yields [6] - The municipal bond market has also faced significant pressure, with the benchmark yield for 10-year municipal bonds rising by 8 basis points to 3.25%, continuing the downward trend seen in Treasury bonds [6]
比特币续刷新高冲破11.8万!推手竟然是它?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-11 06:22
Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has reached a historical high of $118,000 per coin, driven by strong institutional demand, retail investor influx, and favorable policies from the Trump administration towards cryptocurrencies [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional and Retail Demand - Institutional investors are significantly accumulating Bitcoin, absorbing supply and consuming liquidity from exchanges [3]. - Retail investors, previously cautious, have also joined the trend, contributing to Bitcoin's price stability above the psychological threshold of $100,000 [4]. Group 2: Options Market and Price Predictions - Options traders are targeting higher price ranges, with open interest in call options concentrated around strike prices of $115,000 and $120,000, extending to $140,000 and $150,000 for longer-dated options [3]. - A recent short squeeze, with approximately $447 million in positions liquidated, indicates an overly crowded bearish stance, which could lead to further price increases [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Corporate Involvement - The Trump administration's recent actions, including an executive order to establish a cryptocurrency strategic reserve and the appointment of pro-crypto officials, are seen as catalysts for a more favorable regulatory environment [3]. - Trump's family business is also entering the crypto space, seeking to launch an ETF that will invest in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin [4]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Long-term holders of Bitcoin are showing reluctance to sell, leading to a supply squeeze as their accumulation outpaces the monthly issuance of new coins [4]. - The combined balance growth of long-term holders and new retail investors is currently at a rate of +19,300 Bitcoin per month, exceeding the monthly issuance of +13,400 Bitcoin [4].