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对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评:晨会纪要-20251127
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-11-26 23:30
晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 218 号 主 题:对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、金融工程 1、期权市场(邢维洁) 标的走势 11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日,沪指周中震荡下跌,较前一周跌幅为 3.90%,当周收于 3834.89, 成交量较前一周有所降低。深指小幅低开,周中震荡下跌,较前一周跌幅为 5.13%,当周收 于 12538.07,成交量与前一周基本持平。 50ETF 周初开于 3.182,周末收于 3.101,较前一周下跌 0.082,跌幅为 2.58%,成交额 104.59 亿。华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF 周初开于 4.730,周末收于 4.564,较前一周下跌 0.177,跌 幅为 3.73%,成交额 211.19 亿。南方中证 500ETF 周初开于 7.334,周末收于 6.922,较前一 周下跌 0.416,跌幅为 5.67%,成交额 128.03 亿。 期权市场 时 间:2025 年 11 月 27 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式:腾讯会议 参会人员:曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 何 ...
沪铜产业日报-20251124
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 10:32
本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议, 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | | 86,080.00 | +420.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,779.00 | +1.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | | -20.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 192,392.00 | +2174.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | | -22,172.00 | +1385 ...
美股从惊喜变惊吓,原因何在?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 08:12
在英伟达(NVDA.US)超预期季绩和黄仁勋的乐观展望下,美股开盘后曾一路走高,以纳斯达克指数(IXIC.US)为例,高开2.18%之后曾 一路走高,最高到达23,147.33点,涨2.58%,随后急转直下,最低跌2.31%,上下波幅高达4.89%,收市跌2.15%,或跌486.18点,报道 22,087.05点,见下图。 道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数的单日走势也与纳斯达克指数一致。与此同时,华尔街的恐慌指数VIX指数也创下了4月末以来的最高收 盘水平,单日涨11.67%,报26.42点,最近5日的涨幅达到32.10%。 2025年11月20日晚,美股在短短一小时内出现重大逆转。 比特币等继续下跌。比特币价格进一步下跌至8.58万美元。 对于美股的逆转,市场普遍认为主要原因有很多个方面: 科技股"利好出尽"引发的估值忧虑 英伟达发布的第3季营收、利润远超市场预期,但市场或将此解读为"利好出尽",加上市场对AI产业盈利兑现能力的忧虑并没有消除,投资 者或担心英伟达的增长与市场份额已触顶,开始获利套现。 美股之后,亚太区股市大跌,且尤以AI芯片和关联产业股最为严重,例如英伟达的股东软银集团跌超10%,英伟达 ...
瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20251118
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 09:09
塑料产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6785 | -58 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6785 | -58 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6852 | -50 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6906 | -43 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 260592 | 53772 持仓量(日,手) | 548344 | 6049 | | | 1-5价差 | -67 | -8 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 473161 | 17538 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 584549 | 20653 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -111388 | -3115 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 6932.17 | -17.83 LLDPE(7042) ...
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251112
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 08:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251110
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 10:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The US government was "shut down" for 40 days, and the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously this period, but the domestic port inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks; the molten iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. However, the positive macro - situation provided some support for the current weak market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. For operation, short - term trading is recommended with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 765.00 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan; the position volume was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 33,799 lots, up 1,644 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.88 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 765 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 69 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.05 US dollars/ton, down 2.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.20, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 832 yuan/ton. The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,069.00 tons, down 144.80 tons; the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) were 2,769.30 tons, down 544.80 tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,624.13 tons, up 351.20 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,009.94 tons, up 160.08 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 11,130.90 tons, down 502.10 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.99 tons, down 0.36 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 1.01%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.83 tons, down 5.92 tons. The BDI index was 2,104.00, up 41.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.42 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.15%, up 1.42%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.79%, down 0.80%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 tons, down 388 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.56%, down 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.41%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 15.95%, down 1.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.77%, up 0.96% [2] Industry News - From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 tons. The total shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore were 2,548.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 tons. From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2,769.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544.8 tons; the arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2,741.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477.2 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,525.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.1 tons [2]
Crypto Markets Today: BTC Holds at $114.5K, HBAR Soars on ETF News
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-28 12:00
Market Overview - The crypto market consolidated after strong gains, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $114,500 and Ether (ETH) at $4,120, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and a potential U.S.-China trade deal [1] - The altcoin market remains volatile, with several tokens giving back gains, while HBAR and TAO posted double-digit increases [2] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market shows a sustained recovery, with open interest increasing to $27.62 billion, indicating traders are gradually re-engaging [3] - Funding rates have turned predominantly positive, with Binance reporting a high annualized rate of 7.99%, suggesting a bullish bias in the market [3] - The bitcoin options market reflects a bullish outlook, supported by a positive implied volatility term structure and a 25-delta skew of 4%, indicating traders are paying a premium for call options [3] - Liquidations totaled $270 million in 24 hours, with a 71-29 split between longs and shorts, highlighting market volatility [3] Altcoin Performance - HBAR experienced a significant 17% increase after the announcement of its ETF listing on NYSE Arca, with daily trading volume spiking to $871 million, a 344% rise [3] - TRUMP, a memecoin, surged 11% following news of an imminent trade deal with China [3] - The altcoin sector continues to underperform Bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator dropping to 28/100 from 78/100 in September [3]
瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251021
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 10:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased slightly as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from restored capacity. Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. Low freight rates have weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, leading to an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week. [3] - Due to various factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports has fallen short of expectations, resulting in a decrease in methanol port inventories last week. The inventory in East China has decreased as提货 performance is good, while the inventory in South China has increased due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading. The expected methanol imports in October remain sufficient, and port inventories may still rise. [3] - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable and remained at a high level. There are no planned adjustments in the short - term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2268 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton. [3] - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 1059019 lots, a decrease of 12237 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 138689 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 14092, a decrease of 810. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 99.7 tons (weekly), a decrease of 8.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 49.44 tons (weekly), an increase of 3.17 tons. [3] - The import profit of methanol is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 359900 tons (weekly), an increase of 20500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17%. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 40.88% (weekly), an increase of 6.77%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%. [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 72.52% (weekly), a decrease of 10.44%; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.12% (weekly), a decrease of 1%. [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 92.39% (weekly), a decrease of 0.8%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.84% (daily), a decrease of 0.3%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3% (daily), a decrease of 0.05%. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.04%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.89 tons, an increase of 11.37 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 98.64%. [3] - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 149.14 tons, a decrease of 5.18 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.35 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.17 tons. [3] - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. [3]
Crypto Markets Today: Bearish October Continues as Altcoins Dealt Hammer Blow
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-16 16:28
Market Overview - The crypto market experienced a significant sell-off, with several altcoins facing double-digit declines while BTC and ETH approached critical support levels [1] - This sell-off is seen as a continuation of a previous $500 billion market downturn, prompting traders to exercise caution to avoid further liquidations [1] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market is stabilizing, with Open Interest around $25 billion and a 3-month annualized basis in the 5-6% range [3] - A divergence in funding rates indicates mixed market sentiment, with Binance and OKX showing negative funding rates of -2% to -3%, suggesting bearish conviction among traders [3] - The BTC options market displays strong bullish signals, with a balanced 24-hour Put/Call Volume and a 1-week 25 Delta Skew spiking to 12.62%, indicating demand for call options [3] Liquidation Data - Coinglass data reports $415 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 70-30 split between longs and shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3] - Major liquidations included ETH ($115 million), BTC ($80 million), and others ($43 million), with a key liquidation level at $110,009 to monitor [3] Altcoin Performance - Altcoins faced severe declines, with Bittensor (TAO), aster (ASTER), and lido (LDO) dropping between 12% and 13% in 24 hours, while the "altcoin season" index fell to 27/100, its lowest in over three months [3] - Despite the overall bearish sentiment, tron (TRX) showed resilience, rising from $0.312 to $0.322, indicating potential recovery [3] Market Catalysts - The recent sell-off is attributed to distribution from long-term Bitcoin holders, creating heavy sell pressure amid low demand [3] - Altcoins are negatively impacted by Bitcoin's downturn, with low liquidity levels exacerbating price declines during sell-offs [3]
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251015
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 09:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of V2601 are bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with the range estimated to be between 4,620 - 4,710 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend. The demand growth is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market may remain on the sidelines due to the impact of the Indian anti - dumping tax [2]. - The calcium carbide process is in deep loss, and chlor - alkali enterprises use "alkali to make up for chlorine". However, the calcium carbide supply is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC futures is 4,677 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume is 632,849 lots, down 103,795 lots; the open interest is 1,271,985 lots, up 17,706 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 168,866 lots, down 13,513 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China have declined. The domestic and international PVC prices in some regions remain unchanged, and the basis is - 97 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The price of calcium carbide in the Northwest has decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remain unchanged. The prices of VCM in CFR Far East and Southeast Asia have increased, while the prices of EDC remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.63%, up 3.66 percentage points. The social inventory of PVC is 55.7 tons, up 1.93 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The real - estate related indicators show a mixed trend. The new housing construction area and real - estate development investment have increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index has decreased [3]. - **Option Market**: The historical volatility of PVC has decreased, while the implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options has increased [3]. b. Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the utilization rate of China's PVC production capacity was 82.63%, up 1.21% from the previous period [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, with the pipe operating rate down 7.6% to 32.83% and the profile operating rate down 23.04% to 15.87% [3]. - As of October 9th, the social inventory of PVC was 103.63 tons, up 5.58% from the previous week [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3].