军工行情底线牢固，传媒或迎布局良机 ——资金行为研究双周报（2025/12/26-2026/1/8） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 09 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：王永健 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 延续性？》2026-01-04 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 5 周）》2026-01-03 4 周）》2025-12-28 风险提示：宏观不确定性，数据与模型局限性，研报使用信息更新不及时风险 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 市场资金流向概览：机构资金流动节奏反复，其流出动能在科创板有所收敛。机构资 金虽呈阶段性流出，但对科创板净流出斜率较创业板和全 A 更平缓。散户资金流入相 对平稳，在创业板净流入幅度显著高于科创板。从流入变化率看，科创板机构与散户 资金均处于窄幅波动区间。 相关报告 市值与估值风格：以中证 2000 为代表的小市值风格获机构与散户同步流入，且机构 买力强于散户。中证 2000 获机构与散户 ...

融资盘的行业流向，折射出投资者"立足确定性，布局成长性"的双重逻辑。杨超表示：一方面，资金正 积极配置有色金属等受益于明确涨价逻辑、盈利可见度高的板块，以及因"开门红"数据向好的非银金融 板块；另一方面，电子、国防军工等具备自主可控属性和中长期产业趋势的赛道，成为杠杆资金布局未 来的重要抓手。 展望后市，杨超认为，杠杆资金流入或将强化市场的结构性特征，引导资金向高景气、高流动性方向倾 斜。"作为市场的增量补充，杠杆资金与公募基金、险资等资金形成合力，有望推动市场定价向基本面 和产业趋势演进。"杨超说。 从资金流向来看，1月5日至6日，申万一级31个行业中，有28个行业获得了融资净买入。其中，电子行 业获融资净买入额居首，累计净买入77.48亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有有色金属、机械设备、 计算机、国防军工、电力设备等。 从个股来看，年初两个交易日，134只个股获融资净买入额超1亿元。其中，东方财富获融资净买入额居 首，两日累计净买入10.97亿元；融资净买入额居前的还有胜宏科技、信维通信、香农芯创、中际旭 创、利欧股份、西部材料、TCL科技、蓝色光标、华虹公司等。 驱动投资者显著增加杠杆的核心逻辑，首先是 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 金融工程丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 两融余额创新高，杠杆资金流入了哪些行业？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 截至 2025 年 12 月 30 日，全市场融资融券余额达到 25552.84 亿元，创历史新高。近 5 日融 资净买入最多的行业是电子，累计融资净买入 78.7 亿元，其次是电力设备，近 5 日累计融资净 买入 74.6 亿元，国防军工、机械设备和有色金属排名第三到第五；从融资买入占成交额比例来 看，融资买入交易较为活跃的是非银金融、电子、通信、家用电器和电力设备。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 鲍丰华 刘胜利 SAC：S0490521070001 SAC：S0490517070006 SFC：BWH883 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 两融余额创新高，杠杆资金流入了哪些行业？ [Table_Summary2] 两融余额创历史新高 近期融资融券余额回升，受到市场关注。12 月 30 日，全市场融资融券余额达到 25552.84 亿 元，创历史新高， ...

Core Insights - The total margin financing balance in the market reached 25,552.84 billion yuan as of December 30, an increase of 35.50 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Among the industries, 20 sectors saw an increase in financing balance, with the automotive sector leading with an increase of 11.77 billion yuan [1] - A total of 1,834 stocks experienced an increase in financing balance, with 283 stocks showing an increase of over 5% [1] Industry Analysis - The automotive industry had the highest increase in financing balance, followed by machinery equipment and electronics, which increased by 11.46 billion yuan and 6.17 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The average increase in stock prices among the top 20 stocks with the highest financing balance growth was 1.20%, with notable gainers including Weiman Sealing, Yuyin Co., and Fulongma [2] Company Performance - Yuyin Co. had the largest increase in financing balance, reaching 4.02 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 76.05% and a stock price increase of 10.04% [1][3] - Other significant gainers in financing balance included Zhongfu Shenying and Lifan Holdings, with increases of 41.71% and 39.60%, respectively [3] - Conversely, 1,927 stocks saw a decrease in financing balance, with 170 stocks experiencing a decline of over 5%, the largest drop being 45.79% for Taide Co. [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, both the US and Chinese stock markets performed well, with the US three major stock indices rising over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.9%. The growth is due to the resonance of the global technology sector and year - end pre - positioning [4]. - Market risk preference is on the rise. Since mid - December, the S&P 500 volatility has generally declined, and the basis discount of stock index futures has narrowed since December [4]. - Leverage funds' activity significantly increased this week, becoming a major driving factor for the market. The proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rebounded, and leverage funds flowed into major broad - based indices [5]. - In 2026, the incremental funds flowing into the stock market are estimated to be 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of "fixed income +" products will double. If the market adjusts in December, incremental funds may pre - position. Next year, technology will still be the most promising direction for the spring rally [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Performance 3.1.1 Global Asset Performance - Global stocks: Most global stock indices rose, with the Korean Composite Index rising 2.7% and the Nikkei 225 rising 2.5%. The French CAC40 and the British FTSE 100 declined [12]. - Global bonds: US Treasury yields declined, while Japanese and Chinese government bond yields rose [12]. - Global commodities: Precious metals performed well, with COMEX silver rising 18.2% and lithium carbonate rising 16.5%. The US dollar index declined [12]. 3.1.2 A - share Market Performance - Broad - based indices: A - shares generally rose, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices rising 3.9% and 2.8% respectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 also had significant gains [21][23]. - Trading volume: Except for the dividend index, the average daily trading volume of broad - based indices increased, returning to the level around mid - August [25]. - Industry performance: The top five rising industries were non - ferrous metals (8.47%), national defense and military industry (7.51%), power equipment (6.27%), machinery and equipment (5.74%), and basic chemicals (5.70%). Most cyclical sectors performed well, except for banks and coal [31]. - Technology sector: Since December, optical modules and optical communications have led the way, and on Monday, most technology sub - sectors rose and many had increased trading volume [35][39]. 3.2 Capital Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Leverage Funds - Margin trading turnover ratio: The proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rose from 10.24% to 11.20%. The margin trading balance increased to about 2.53 trillion yuan, and the ratio of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization slightly decreased [49]. - Inflow into broad - based indices: From Monday to Thursday, leverage funds flowed into major broad - based indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 300 having daily net inflows of over 2.5 billion yuan. Most broad - based ETFs had net outflows on Monday - Thursday, and on Friday, most broad - based indices had inflows except for the Shanghai Composite Index ETF and ChiNext Index ETF [54]. - Market - cap gradient: Stocks of all market - cap gradients increased leverage, with large - cap stocks above 50 billion yuan having a larger increase. Stocks like Zhongji Innolight, Industrial Fulin, Cambricon, and Zijin Mining had large net margin purchases [58]. - Industry perspective: Industries with large margin net purchases as a proportion of turnover included communications, real estate, machinery and equipment, etc. The national defense and military industry increased leverage for six consecutive weeks, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased leverage for nine consecutive weeks [62]. - Hot stocks: Some hot stocks in the national defense and military industry and electronics added leverage. Stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhongji Innolight, and others had a margin net purchase as a proportion of turnover exceeding 10% [70]. 3.2.2 Quantitative Funds - Excess return: Since December, the median excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index - enhanced strategies have been - 1.15% and 0.61% respectively [72]. - Futures basis: This week, the near - month stock index futures basis changed from premium to discount, and the far - month contract basis discount narrowed. Excluding the futures delivery week, the basis discount has been narrowing since December [78]. 3.2.3 Main Force Funds - Sector net flows: The main force funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext continued to have net outflows, but the outflows slowed down. The main force funds in the STAR Market had net outflows for five consecutive trading days, accelerating compared to last week [80]. - Industry flows: Main force funds flowed into the power equipment industry and out of industries such as national defense and military industry, computers, electronics, and non - bank finance [88]. 3.2.4 Northbound Funds - Trading volume and proportion: The total trading volume of northbound funds decreased, with the average daily trading volume dropping from 203 billion yuan to 176.6 billion yuan, and the proportion in A - share trading volume dropping from 11.52% to 9.29% [92]. - Performance of heavy - holding stocks: The heavy - holding stocks of the Northbound Connect changed from rising to falling, and the Northbound Connect 50 index underperformed the CSI 300 [94]. 3.2.5 Southbound Funds - Trading volume and net purchases: The average daily trading volume of southbound funds decreased from 144.2 billion yuan to 110.2 billion yuan, and the proportion increased from 52.3% to 58.9%. The average daily net purchase amount decreased from 2.9 billion yuan to 0.8 billion yuan [99]. - Industry allocation: Southbound funds still had a balanced allocation, flowing into industries such as media, electronics, and non - bank finance, and flowing out of industries such as communications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and non - ferrous metals [102].

电子行业以超1600亿元的净买入额高居榜首，一位融资客的宠儿正从光模块龙头向算力巨头演变。 "融资余额突破2.5万亿！"当这一数字在2025年末定格时，A股市场的杠杆资金达到了历史新高。 截至12月25日，A股融资余额从年初的1.85万亿元增长至2.52万亿元，净增长6700亿元，增幅超过36%。这一增长规模已经逼近2014年牛市时期全年6739亿 元的增额。 融资资金的行业集中度非常高。电子行业以1606亿元的净买入额遥遥领先，占全年融资净买入总额的24%；电力设备行业以947亿元位居第二，占比14%； 通信行业获得648亿元净买入，占比10%。 下半年以来，融资资金继续向这些行业集中。截至12月23日数据，13个申万一级行业融资净买入额超过100亿元，电子行业以1614.26亿元继续领跑。 03 个股龙头 融资资金在31个申万一级行业中呈现出明显的偏好差异。28个行业获得融资净买入，其中电子、电力设备、通信成为最大赢家。 01 年度增长 2025年，A股融资市场经历了前所未有的扩张。截至12月25日，融资余额已达2.52万亿元，较2024年底的1.85万亿元净增长6700亿元，增幅超过36%。 这一增长并 ...

12月23日，本周一，加密货币市场再次迎来多头盛宴，比特币在亚欧交易时段展现出强劲的向上动能， 成功收复90000美元关键关口。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，尽管价格从88000美元一路攀升并站稳高 位，但市场内部的微妙变化预示着随着美国交易时段的临近，交易者需警惕潜在的价格波动。这种"亚 洲支撑、美国抛售"的周期性规律，已成为近期市场关注的焦点。 美国交易时段的表现将是验证此次反弹成色的"试金石"。观察近几周的走势不难发现，比特币往往在非 美时段表现坚挺，但一旦进入纽约交易时段，伴随着对冲策略的部署和获利盘的出逃，价格常会出现明 显的回落。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，此前多次冲击90000美元大关无果，并在随后的剧烈震荡中引 发了数亿美元的爆仓，这种不稳定的情绪溢价使得投资者在当前高位倍感压力。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 责任编辑：陈平 12月23日，本周一，加密货币市场再次迎来多头盛宴，比特币在亚欧交易时段展现出强劲的向上动能， 成功收复90000美元关键关口。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，尽管价格从88000美元一路攀升并站稳高 位，但市场内部的微 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant net buying activity in the stock market, with a total of 1,616 stocks experiencing net financing purchases during the week of December 15 to December 19, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks [1] Group 1: Financing Net Purchases - A total of 701 stocks had net buying amounts exceeding 10 million yuan, with 84 stocks surpassing 100 million yuan in net purchases [1] - China Ping An topped the list with a net buying amount of 2.573 billion yuan, reflecting a weekly increase of 7.57% [1] - Other notable stocks with high net buying amounts include Shenghong Technology and Aerospace Electronics, while Dongshan Precision, Kweichow Moutai, and Hengyi Petrochemical faced significant net selling [1] Group 2: Net Selling Activity - Dongshan Precision experienced the highest net selling amount at 801 million yuan, followed by Kweichow Moutai at 769 million yuan and Hengyi Petrochemical at 551 million yuan [1]

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海12月19日电（林郑宏）2025年，A股市场迎来杠杆资金大规模入场。新华财经统计显示，截至12月18日，沪深两市合计融资余额达24748亿 元，全年净买入6244.35亿元。 自2010年3月融资融券业务正式启动以来，2025年沪深两市融资余额绝对数值增长已位居历史年度数据第二，仅次于2014年。新华财经统计显示，2014年底 沪深两市融资余额报10174亿元，全年净买入6674.5亿元。而考虑到2025年仍有8个交易日，最终全年融资净买入额超越2014年也未可知。 融资余额16年增长195倍 年度净买入超6000亿元仅有两年 公开资料显示，融资融券业务于2010年3月31日在中国正式启动，至2013年初，沪深两市融资余额突破千亿元大关。2013年4月，多家券商将开户门槛调整为 客户资产不低于20万元且开户满6个月；部分券商甚至进一步将门槛降至10万元或更低。此后，融资余额迎来爆发式增长，至2014年底，突破万亿元大关， 较2013年初增长10倍。 2015年，证监会修改了《证券公司融资融券业务管理办法》，将"最近20个交易日日均证券类资产不低于50万元"等要求，明确为开立信用账户 ...

12月18日沪指上涨0.16%，市场两融余额为24993.66亿元，较前一交易日减少34.80亿元。 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新融资余额（万 | 较前一个交易日增减 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 元） | （%） | | | | 920526 | 凯华材 | 2470.86 | 108.23 | 0.91 | 电子 | | | 料 | | | | | | 920262 | 太湖雪 | 890.18 | 44.05 | 4.05 | 纺织服饰 | | 920576 | 天力复 合 | 5960.60 | 43.07 | 9.01 | 有色金属 | | 603601 | 再升科 技 | 61214.35 | 35.42 | 6.08 | 建筑材料 | | 002491 | 通鼎互 | 27373.14 | 32.73 | 4.66 | 通信 | | | 联 | | | | | | 920765 | 美之高 | 817.60 | 32.25 | -7.97 | 轻工制造 | | 600343 | 航天动 | 1078 ...