在通胀率如期回落至2%目标、经济展现"相当有韧性"的背景下，欧洲央行决策层正集体驻足于货币政 策的关键节点。多位管委会成员近日公开表态，确认当前2%的存款机制利率"处于合适水平"，短期内 调整门槛"相当高"。然而，在表面共识之下，关于未来通胀走势的判断与应对策略，政策制定者之间已 显露出清晰的裂痕。 "我们认为通胀风险非常均衡。"欧洲央行执行委员会成员皮耶罗·奇波洛尼（Piero Cipollone）在接受采 访时表示，"我们处在一个良好位置……未来两年我们都会接近目标。"他进一步指出，尽管贸易引发的 不确定性持续存在，但欧元区20国的产出仍在扩张，增长在经历本季度放缓后有望恢复原有轨迹。 这一评估，与市场普遍预期相吻合。自上一轮政策调整以来，欧洲央行已将存款机制利率维持在2%不 变，投资者与分析师普遍认为，进一步降息的可能性已被排除。政策重心，正从应对通胀转向确保其可 持续性。 在欧洲财长会议期间，欧元区多国央行行长释放出不同信号。拉脱维亚央行行长马丁斯·卡扎克斯 （Martins Kazaks）强调审慎："我们不需要匆忙行事。作为央行，我们不应该在每次会议上都跳来跳 去。"他明确表示，10月会议调整政策的 ...

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) officials are anxiously awaiting new economic forecasts in December to assess if current interest rates are sustainable for achieving a 2% inflation target [1] Group 1: Current Economic Situation - ECB officials believe the current deposit facility rate of 2% is suitable for achieving the inflation target, but there is disagreement on assessing economic risks and tolerance for short-term inflation below the target [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the bank has achieved its price stability goal, but uncertainties remain despite a trade agreement with the U.S. [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates in September, indicating that monetary policy is in a "good state," which led to reduced expectations for further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Perspectives from Central Bank Leaders - Latvian central bank governor Martins Kazaks emphasized that it is inappropriate to adjust rates every time inflation deviates from the target, suggesting a high threshold for rate changes in October and December [2] - Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras noted that the current balance is acceptable, with no immediate need for rate adjustments, but acknowledged that significant changes in the economic outlook could prompt a reassessment [2] - Maltese central bank governor Edward Scicluna stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate, with no discussions on rate cuts, while monitoring trade tensions and the euro exchange rate [3] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus expressed a preference for rate cuts to support inflation targets, predicting that mid-term inflation will likely remain below the target [3] - Estonian central bank governor Madis Muller indicated that current rates support growth and inflation is at desired levels, suggesting no need for further action [4] - Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno mentioned that while a few quarters of inflation below the target can be tolerated, prolonged low inflation could lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations [4]

总台记者 朱曦莉：尽管美联储降息将推高欧元兑美元汇率，从而增强欧元资产的吸引力，吸引更多投资，并降低以美元结算的能源和原材料等商品的进口 成本，有利于缓解欧盟的通胀压力，但这一政策对欧盟经济而言也是一把"双刃剑"。 欧洲政策中心分析师 菲利普·劳斯贝格：欧洲的出口产品将变得更加昂贵，这可能会对欧洲出口导向型产业的出口产生负面影响。因为它们将更难与其他更 廉价商品竞争，尤其是美国商品，所以这将会对欧盟经济增长产生负面影响。 当地时间17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，这是美联储货币政策的重大转向。欧洲政策中心分析师菲利普·劳斯贝格在接受总台记者采访时表示，这一举措 将对欧洲经济产生多重影响。 欧洲政策中心分析师 菲利普·劳斯贝格：历史经验表明，每当美联储降息，欧洲股市在未来3到6个月内的表现往往相当不错。这主要是因为市场流动性增 强，投资资金更为充裕，同时，美国资产的收益率通常会下降，因此，对于寻求更高回报的投资者来说，转向其他市场，包括欧洲市场是一个明智选择。 欧洲政策中心分析师 菲利普·劳斯贝格：与美国不同，欧洲央行没有任何其他职责，例如，美联储有创造就业机会的职责，欧洲央行没有这个职责。欧洲央 行的职责实际 ...

上述数据反映出欧元区经济动能在9月呈现回暖迹象，市场情绪趋于乐观。然而，尽管景气度回升，劳 动力成本持续攀升的态势仍为通胀前景带来不确定性，可能对欧洲央行的货币政策决策构成挑战。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月16日电（崔凯）根据ZEW经济研究所最新发布的数据，欧元区9月经济景气指数环比 上升1.0点，达到26.1，高于市场预期的20.3，显示市场对区域经济前景的信心有所增强。 同期，当前经济状况指标改善2.4点，升至-28.8。通胀预期指标亦上升3.3点至-3.4，表明分析师对通胀 压力的担忧略有缓解。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧元兑美元汇率小幅攀升，迈向四年高位。周二，欧元汇率升至自 7 月 3 日以来的 最高水平，涨幅高达 0.3%，达到 1.1791 美元。自 2025 年以来，该货币汇率已上涨近 14%，创下有记 录以来最佳的九个月表现。若能突破 7 月份创下的 1.1829 美元的高位，这将创下自 2021 年 9 月以来的 最高水平。期权交易显示，这可能为冲击备受关注的 1.20 美元关口奠定基础。 交易员们正密切关注美联储本周可能采取的降息举措，此举将推动欧元与欧洲央行利率的走势出现明显 分化。需求得到了预期的支撑，即欧洲央行在当前美联储即将开启宽松政策之际不会进一步降低利率。 而美联储年底可能连续三次降息 25 个基点的预期，也增强了欧元的吸引力。 据摩根士丹利的策略师称，在美联储做出决策之前，美元的战术性仓位处于中性状态。这意味着，如果 政策制定者证实市场对于今年三次降息的预期是正确的，那么欧元仍有进一步上涨的空间。 一周风险逆转指标(用于衡量仓位和市场情绪)显示，自欧洲央行暗示已结束宽松政策以来，投资者对能 买入欧元的期权的需求持续上升。美国存托信托与清算公司提供的数据也证实了这一点：周一交易 ...

（原标题：欧洲央行宣布了：不降息！机构：下一步可能加息） 【导读】欧洲央行如期维持利率不变，拉加德称去通胀过程已结束；机构判断宽松政策周期结束，下一 步可能加息；欧元兑美元EUR/USD持续走高 北京时间周四20点15分，欧洲央行正式宣布其利率决定：维持三大关键利率不变。 欧洲央行宣布，将欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利率这三大关键利率分别保持在 2.00%、2.15%和2.40%。 此外，欧洲央行预计2025年剔除能源和食品价格的核心通胀率为2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为 1.8%；6月预期分别为2.4%、1.9%、1.9%。预计2025年GDP增长率为1.2%，较6月预测的0.9%有所上 调；2026年小幅下调至1.0%，2027年维持1.3%不变。 欧洲央行表示，管理委员会准备在其授权范围内调整所有工具，以确保通货膨胀在中期内稳定在2%的 目标水平，并确保货币政策传导机制平稳运行。 有分析指出，这一决策背后的主要支撑因素来自近期欧元区经济数据的改善。此外，美欧之间新近达成 的贸易协定亦为区域经济前景提供了额外支撑，有助于缓解此前因外部贸易环境不确定性带来的下行压 力。 拉加德 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the key interest rates in the Eurozone unchanged during its monetary policy meeting held in Frankfurt on September 11, 2023 [1] Interest Rates - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] Rate Changes - Since starting the rate cut process in June 2024, the ECB has reduced rates eight times, with the last decision in July 2023 to hold rates steady [1] Inflation and Economic Growth Forecasts - The current inflation rate in the Eurozone is approximately 2%, which is close to the medium-term target set by the ECB [1] - The latest forecast from the ECB indicates that the economic growth rate for the Eurozone in 2025 is expected to be 1.2%, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% made in June 2023 [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been slightly adjusted down to 1.0%, while the 2027 growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.3% [1]

新华财经北京9月11日电（崔凯）市场普遍预期，欧洲央行（ECB）将于本周四召开的货币政策会议上 维持关键利率不变，延续其自上次会议以来的暂停加息立场。此次决议预计将于北京时间20:15公布， 随后于20:45由行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德主持新闻发布会，并发布最新一期经济预测报告。 此前，欧洲央行管理委员会曾明确表示，进一步降息需以经济前景显著恶化或出现持续通缩风险为前 提。在此背景下，市场普遍预期行长拉加德将在发布会上重申政策灵活性，避免对未来的利率路径作出 直接承诺。 TD证券分析师指出，本次发布会可能重点强调"经济韧性增强"以及"外部贸易不确定性下降"等积极因 素。拉加德或将继续采取谨慎措辞，以保留政策调整空间，同时防止市场形成过早的降息预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） 若如期维稳，这将是欧洲央行连续第二次在政策会议上决定保持利率不变。分析指出，这一决策背后的 主要支撑因素来自近期欧元区经济数据的改善。数据显示，欧元区第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）环比 增长0.1%，超出市场预期，显示出经济韧性有所恢复。与此同时，8月调和消费者物价指数（HICP）同 比上升2.1%，不仅高于前值2.0%，亦略超市场预期，并再度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has entered a new phase of monetary policy, focusing on monitoring the economy rather than actively intervening to change its direction, as inflation is currently at the target level of 2% [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - ECB officials are inclined to maintain the current interest rates after pausing further rate cuts in July, with many decision-makers suggesting no changes in the upcoming meeting [1][3] - Kazaks indicated that a further rate cut of 25 basis points would not significantly impact the economy, viewing it more as an insurance measure rather than a necessity [5] - The ECB's current situation is perceived as stable, with Kazaks stating that the existing economic data does not warrant immediate action [1][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite some uncertainties in business investment due to tariffs on exports, surveys indicate a recovery in the European manufacturing sector, which has struggled for over three years [1] - Wage growth is slowing as expected, which bolsters confidence that mid-term inflation will stabilize at 2% [1] - The ECB's forecast predicts inflation will dip slightly below the target early next year but is expected to rebound to 2% by 2027 [2]

Group 1 - A key indicator measuring wage growth in the Eurozone has significantly increased, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain a cautious stance on further rate cuts [1][4] - In the second quarter, negotiated wages rose by 4% year-on-year, up from 2.5% in the first quarter, but still below the peak of 5.4% expected in 2024 [1][4] - The ECB is confident in stabilizing inflation at 2%, based on expectations that wage growth will slow and inflation in labor-intensive service sectors, currently around 3%, will also decline [1] Group 2 - Data tracking wages across 20 Eurozone member countries indicates a significant decline in wage levels is expected by early next year [4] - Despite a substantial increase in wages reported by the German central bank, a decline is anticipated due to falling inflation rates and a poor economic environment [4] - Bloomberg economist Martin Ademmer suggests that the rise in negotiated wage growth may be temporary, driven by one-time payments, and expects wage pressures to ease in the coming quarters, which could help lower high service sector inflation [4]