公司报告 | 半年报点评 川投能源（600674） 证券研究报告 雅砻江水电为业绩增量主力，控股资产盈利稳健 事件 公司公布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 7.12 亿元， 同比+18%；实现归母净利润 24.6 亿元，同比+6.9%。 控股资产盈利能力稳步提升 随着银江水电站机组的陆续投产发电，公司上半年完成发电量 23.6 亿千瓦 时，同比+17.8%，电量增速与营业收入增速基本一致。 上半年公司主营业务毛利率 46.6%，相较于去年同期提升 2pct，控股资产 的盈利能力在稳步提升。 参股：雅砻江水电为业绩增量主力 ①雅砻江水电： 2025 年上半年雅砻江水电发电量 430 亿千瓦时，同比+12.7%；营业收入 121.7 亿元，同比+7%；净利润 49.2 亿元，同比+11.7%；其中 Q2 营业收入 55.05 亿元，同比+4.2%；净利润 19.19 亿元，同比+4.7%。 雅砻江水电营业收入增速低于电量增速主要原因或为电价下滑。根据我们 估算，雅砻江水电 25 年上半年不含税上网电价相较于去年同期下浮约 1.5 分/千瓦时。四川省 2025 年电力交易取消综合一口价， ...

在建水电项目有望陆续投产，看好参控股公司长期增长。根据公司在建项目规划，其控股的银江水电站 1、2、3 号机组已在今年上半年陆续投产，预计剩余3 台6.5 万千瓦机组将在年内全面投产。参股公司在 建项目方面，雅砻江公司的卡拉、孟底沟、牙根一级水电站等多个水电与新能源项目均在科学推进；国 能大渡河公司则规划以双江口、猴子岩、瀑布沟三大水电站为中心，形成水风光一体化项目集群，目前 仍有在建352 万千瓦，筹建295 万千瓦，后续有望积极保障公司长期成长。此外，公司四川宜宾平山抽 蓄项目已步入可研阶段，湖北远安抽蓄电站项目也已在报告期成功摘牌，后续开工建成后有望进一步拓 展公司业务布局。 盈利预测与估值： 我们预计2025-2027 年公司分别实现归母净利润49/50/52 亿元，同比分别变化 +7.74%/+3.94%/+2.09%， 2025 年8 月20 日股价对应PE 分别为15.42/14.83/14.53 倍。首次覆盖，给予"强 烈推荐"评级。 事件：公司发布2025 年半年度报告，2025 年H1 公司实现营业收入7.12 亿元，同比+17.95%；实现归母 净利润24.61 亿元，同比+6.90%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of ChuanTou Energy (600674.SH) has improved significantly in the first half of 2025, driven by the growth in investment income from its subsidiaries and joint ventures [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, ChuanTou Energy achieved an operating income of 712 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.95% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.461 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.9% year-on-year [1][3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.455 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [1][3]. - Investment income for the first half of 2025 was 2.551 billion yuan, an increase of 5.75% compared to the previous year [3]. Operational Highlights - ChuanTou Energy's controlled enterprises completed a total power generation of 2.361 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.76% [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.278 yuan per kWh, which is an increase of 8.17% year-on-year [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total installed capacity of ChuanTou Energy's subsidiaries and joint ventures reached 37.41 million kW, ranking among the top in Sichuan province [3]. Investment Strategy - ChuanTou Energy has been actively increasing its investment in joint ventures, including a recent plan to invest 334 million yuan in Guoneng Dadu River Company to support the development of integrated wind and solar energy projects [1][7]. - The company has utilized capital market tools such as bonds and short-term financing to support the development of hydropower resources [5][6]. Shareholder Returns - In July 2025, ChuanTou Energy completed a cash dividend distribution of 1.95 billion yuan for the 2024 fiscal year, continuing its commitment to shareholder returns [7]. - Since its listing in 1993, the company has distributed a total of 16.793 billion yuan in cash dividends, ranking high among listed companies in Sichuan province [7]. Shareholding Structure - The controlling shareholder, Sichuan Energy Development Group, is currently in the process of increasing its stake in ChuanTou Energy, having already acquired 45.239 million shares, which represents 0.93% of the total share capital [8].

Economic News - The National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on August 15, 2025, to discuss the economic situation for July 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Finance has issued a management method to support the development of preschool education, including the exemption of childcare fees for eligible public kindergartens [2] - The State Post Bureau reported that the express delivery development index for July 2025 is 414.3, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4% [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the General Administration of Customs issued a notice to prevent the entry of highly pathogenic avian influenza from Spain [2] Key Company Information - Huawei is set to release breakthrough technology in AI inference, which may reduce reliance on high-bandwidth memory technology [5] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. has suspended mining operations at its Yichun project due to the expiration of its mining license [5] - Greentown China expects a nearly 90% year-on-year decline in mid-year profits for 2025 [5] - Nanhu Power has signed an independent energy storage project order with a total capacity of up to 2.8 GWh [5] - Merck Sharp & Dohme has received approval for a new 200-day dosage regimen for its drug PrEP [5] Metal Industry Insights - The gold market's pricing logic has shifted, with supply-demand attributes becoming more significant in determining price resilience [6] - Global mined gold production has shown a declining trend since 2013, with an average annual output of around 3,574 tons over the past decade [6] - The average growth rate of recycled gold supply over the past decade is 2.3%, with a notable increase in 2024 due to rising gold prices [7] - Gold production costs have risen structurally, with total sustaining costs reaching a historical high of $1,456 per ounce in Q3 2024 [7] - Global gold demand has reached a historical peak, with total demand in 2023 increasing by 3.8% to 4,951 tons [8] Gold Consumption Trends - The share of jewelry in global gold consumption has remained stable at around 50%, but gold jewelry consumption decreased by 9% in 2024 due to rising prices [9] - Central bank gold purchases have significantly increased, with global central bank purchases reaching a new high of 1,086 tons in 2024 [10] - The demand for gold ETFs has seen a recovery, with inflows reaching $21 billion in Q1 2025, indicating a potential return to previous growth levels [11] Industrial X-ray Detection Equipment - The domestic industrial X-ray detection equipment market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the demand from the semiconductor and electronic manufacturing sectors [14] - The demand for X-ray detection equipment in the integrated circuit industry is increasing, with the PCB market also showing steady growth [15] - The demand for X-ray detection equipment in the automotive industry is expected to rise as the overall market expands [17] - The company is projected to see revenue growth rates of 32.75%, 30.27%, and 28.18% from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding increase in net profit [18]

Group 1: Gold Supply Dynamics - The global mined gold supply has shown a declining trend since 2013, with an average annual production of approximately 3,574 tons over the past decade[2] - The average growth rate of mined gold production from 2015 to 2019 was +2.0%, but it has slowed to +0.5% from 2020 to 2024[2] - In 2024, the global mined gold production growth rate is expected to rebound to 0.7%, still remaining at a low level compared to the past decade[2] Group 2: Gold Recycling and Costs - The average growth rate of recycled gold supply over the past decade is 2.3%, with the highest growth of 15.5% in 2016 and the lowest at -12.2% in 2021[3] - In 2024, recycled gold production is projected to increase by 10.9% to 1,369 tons, accounting for 27.5% of total gold supply[3] - The global gold mining total sustaining cost reached a historical high of $1,456 per ounce in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9%[3] Group 3: Gold Demand Trends - Global gold consumption has risen to an average of 4,338 tons over the past decade, with a significant increase of 6.4% to 4,616 tons in the last three years[4] - In 2023, total gold demand reached a historical high of 4,951 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%[4] - The top five gold-consuming countries account for over 70% of total demand, with China and India contributing approximately 30% and 24% respectively[5] Group 4: Central Bank and ETF Demand - Central bank gold purchases increased by 140% in 2022 to 1,080 tons, marking a historical high, and continued to exceed 1,000 tons in 2023[6] - By May 2025, global central bank gold reserves reached 36,234 tons, with China's reserves at 2,292 tons, representing 6.5% of its total foreign reserves[6] - The total holdings of gold ETFs reached 3,560.4 tons by April 2025, with a potential recovery in annual growth expected[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - The gradual realization of compensation benefits from the Lianghekou hydropower station is expected to significantly enhance the profitability of Yalong River Hydropower, benefiting stakeholders such as Guotou Power and ChuanTou Energy. The profitability of Yalong River Hydropower is comparable to that of Yangtze Power, but its future growth potential is significantly higher due to ongoing construction of midstream power stations and integrated development of wind and solar energy [2][8] Summary by Sections Joint Dispatch of Hydropower - China's water resources exhibit uneven distribution throughout the year, with significant rainfall occurring from May to October, accounting for 70%-90% of annual rainfall. The joint dispatch of upstream and downstream reservoirs can effectively reduce seasonal flow fluctuations and unnecessary water wastage, while also enhancing water head and energy utilization efficiency [5][20] Quantifying the Benefits of Joint Dispatch - The Lianghekou hydropower station, which began full operation in 2022, is expected to realize significant electricity generation benefits by 2025. The total regulation capacity of the three major reservoirs in Sichuan is 148 billion cubic meters, which is about 51% of the province's total effective capacity. The joint operation of these reservoirs can lead to an electricity generation increase of approximately 88.52 billion kWh, corresponding to an 8.94% enhancement in generation capacity [6][42] Investment Value of Guotou Power and ChuanTou Energy - The report highlights the investment value of Guotou Power and ChuanTou Energy, as their valuations are currently lower compared to Yangtze Power, despite similar profitability levels. The narrowing dividend yield gap between Guotou Power and Yangtze Power further supports this positive outlook [8][72]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Yajiang Group and the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station are significant steps towards enhancing China's clean energy supply and optimizing the energy structure, with a focus on integrating hydropower, wind, and solar energy resources [3][11][12]. Group 1: Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 70 GW, generating an annual output of 3,000 billion kWh, equivalent to three Three Gorges dams [3]. - The project will utilize a development method that includes straightening the river and constructing five stepped power stations within a 40 km stretch, leveraging a natural drop of 2,000 meters [3][9]. - The hydropower station aims to primarily supply electricity for external consumption while also addressing local energy needs in Tibet [3]. Group 2: China Yajiang Group - China Yajiang Group is established to coordinate the overall engineering of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and to implement national energy strategies and regional development plans [11]. - The core purpose of the group is to promote the transition of the national energy structure, significantly increasing the supply of clean energy and reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuels [11][13]. - The group aims to drive regional development by upgrading local infrastructure, creating job opportunities, and enhancing economic prosperity in the area [13]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Integration - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will promote the development of surrounding solar and wind energy resources, establishing a clean energy base that integrates water, wind, and solar power [6][9]. - National policies emphasize the importance of integrated development of hydropower, wind, and solar energy in major river basins [8][12]. - The project is expected to enhance the stability and safety of the green hydrogen supply system by combining various power supply modes [12]. Group 4: Hydrogen Energy Projects in Tibet - The first hydrogen energy application demonstration industrial park in Tibet is set to begin construction in January 2025, addressing the region's industrial gaps in hydrogen energy [17]. - A hydrogen production base project is also scheduled to start in May 2025, utilizing alkaline electrolysis technology to produce hydrogen and oxygen [17]. - The successful trial of the first hydrogen-powered heavy-duty truck in Tibet marks a significant milestone in the region's hydrogen energy transportation sector [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's hydropower generation increased by 2.85% year-on-year in Q2, but the growth rate has significantly narrowed. The average on-grid electricity price decreased by approximately 0.017 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 0.350 yuan per kilowatt-hour, primarily due to a reduction in the proportion of high-priced thermal power generation and a decline in long-term trading prices for thermal power in some regions. The overall performance of the clean energy sector is expected to be suppressed due to weak water and wind conditions, alongside a year-on-year drop in electricity prices [2][12] - The company's thermal power generation decreased by 8.10% year-on-year in Q2, influenced by an increase in clean energy generation in the region and higher external electricity sales. However, cost improvements are expected to support the thermal power performance, leading to a stable outlook for the company's Q2 performance [2][12] - The company is advancing its integrated hydropower, wind, and solar projects in the Yalong River basin, with a total potential hydropower capacity of approximately 30 million kilowatts. As of 2024, 19.2 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity has been put into operation, with additional projects under construction. The company maintains a broad development space while adhering to the principle of "efficiency first" in investment management [12] Summary by Sections Operating Data - In Q2 2025, the company's cumulative power generation reached 38.067 billion kilowatt-hours, with on-grid electricity of 37.074 billion kilowatt-hours, representing increases of 0.52% and 0.59% year-on-year, respectively [6] Financial Forecast - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.90 yuan, 0.99 yuan, and 1.05 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 16.57 times, 15.04 times, and 14.15 times, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [12][16]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [55]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has abundant natural resources, with a total water resource of 214.1 billion cubic meters, ranking third in the country, and a significant increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) installations [2][12]. - The province is enhancing its energy consumption capacity through new storage projects, with four approved pumped storage power stations totaling approximately 5.9 GW of capacity [3][28]. - Yunnan's electricity exports reached a historical high of over 160 billion kWh in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of about 19% [4][36]. - The leading hydropower company, Huaneng, is expected to see significant growth, with a total hydropower installed capacity of approximately 27.31 GW by the end of 2024 [5][46]. - Yunnan's photovoltaic industry benefits from lower carbon footprints and reduced electricity prices during the wet season, positioning it to withstand market fluctuations [6][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Resource Empowerment for Hydropower Development - Yunnan's hydropower resources are rich, with a total installed capacity of 83.6 GW by the end of 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.17 GW [12][19]. - The province has favorable conditions for developing wind and solar energy, with a cumulative PV installed capacity of 39.16 GW by the end of 2024, including significant additions in 2023 and 2024 [19][25]. 2. Temporal and Spatial Complementarity for Energy Consumption - Yunnan is actively promoting new storage projects to enhance energy consumption capacity, with a focus on optimizing the new power system [27][28]. - The integration of multiple energy sources, including hydropower, wind, and solar, supports the consumption of renewable energy [31]. 3. Leading Hydropower Growth and Low-Carbon Manufacturing - Huaneng's hydropower capacity is steadily increasing, with projections for significant revenue growth in the coming years, supported by the full operation of the TB hydropower station [41][49]. - The province's low-carbon manufacturing capabilities are enhanced by its competitive electricity pricing and reduced carbon footprints across the solar supply chain [50][52].

Core Insights - The 20th China Western International Expo is set to showcase the achievements and opportunities of Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, emphasizing its economic and social development, particularly in tourism, energy, and organic industries [1][2]. Group 1: Exhibition Overview - Ganzi's exhibition area is innovatively designed with a "1+3+N" model, focusing on the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting three core industries: tourism, energy, and organic products, and showcasing diverse cultural elements [2]. - The exhibition will feature three main halls: an achievement exhibition, a highland ecological specialty agricultural products exhibition, and an intangible cultural heritage exhibition, using colors to represent the region's development [2]. Group 2: Energy Sector Highlights - Ganzi Prefecture possesses significant energy resources, with a total potential of 250 million kilowatts, including 150 million kilowatts of solar energy, ranking first in Sichuan Province [3]. - The region has established a clean energy capacity of 20.58 million kilowatts and is currently constructing an additional 22.69 million kilowatts, with notable projects like the world's largest water-solar complementary power station [3]. Group 3: Agricultural Development - Ganzi has developed 977,600 acres of modern highland characteristic agricultural bases and created 50 modern agricultural parks, with 361 agricultural products certified under the "three products and one standard" [3]. - The exhibition will prominently feature high-quality organic products, showcasing the region's strengths in green and organic agricultural development [3]. Group 4: Tourism Achievements - Ganzi Prefecture has 115 A-level scenic spots, attracting 152 million visitors and generating a total revenue of 167.185 billion yuan [4]. - The exhibition will highlight the rich cultural heritage and natural beauty of Ganzi, including immersive experiences at significant cultural sites [4]. Group 5: Supporting Activities - The expo will include various supporting activities aimed at fostering cooperation and investment, such as the signing of projects and promotional events for agricultural products [5]. - A series of promotional activities will leverage social media influencers to enhance the visibility of Ganzi's exhibition area and products [5]. Group 6: Interactive Experiences - An interactive area featuring highland specialty products will allow visitors to experience local delicacies and cultural performances, enhancing engagement with Ganzi's unique cultural identity [6][7].