中央纪委国家监委网站 初英杰 2023年7月，习近平总书记在四川考察时强调，要科学规划建设新型能源体系，促进水风光氢天然气等 多能互补发展。 俯瞰雅砻江两河口水电站。 牙根一级水电站建设者欢呼大江截流成功。 挖掘机将截流所需石料推入龙口。 孟底沟水电站施工现场，数十辆新能源自卸车不间断运输截流石料。 2024年4月，习近平总书记在主持召开新时代推动西部大开发座谈会时要求，加快建设新型能源体系， 做大做强一批国家重要能源基地。加强管网互联互通，提升"西电东送"能力。 川西高原，雅砻江中游河畔，满载截流所用石料的新能源自卸车往来如梭。随着最后一车截流石料填入 龙口，江水被完全分流至右岸新建的导流洞，现场顿时响起阵阵欢呼。10月28日，雅砻江上两座大型水 电站——孟底沟水电站、牙根一级水电站实现同步大江截流，两个项目进入主体工程施工新阶段。两座 水电站同步大江截流，在雅砻江流域尚属首次。这标志着雅砻江流域水风光一体化基地建设取得新突 破。 作为国家首个水风光一体化示范基地、九大清洁能源基地之一，雅砻江流域水风光一体化基地规划建设 一大批重大清洁能源工程，既有水电站，又有风电场、光伏电站，还有抽水蓄能电站，水、风、光 ...

格隆汇11月14日｜国泰海通证券研报指出，国投电力25Q1-3归母净利65.2亿元，同比-0.9%；25Q3归母 净利27.2亿元，同比-3.9%；燃料成本催化火电业绩，现金流及财务费用改善显著。公司2025年绿电建 设节奏有所放缓，认为主因136号文的出台对绿电电价及消纳发挥调节作用。雅砻江水风光一体化大基 地拥有多年调节大水电+抽蓄的灵活调节能力，具备成熟外送通道及消纳区域，有望保障项目IRR 及盈 利稳定性。当前雅砻江在建新能源项目主要有牦牛山风电（60万千瓦）、扎拉山等光伏项目（合计317 万千瓦）。考虑雅砻江水风光大基地的稀缺资源属性以及公司稳定分红承诺（2024-26年每年以现金方 式分配的利润原则上不少于当年合并报表可分配利润的55%），参考可比公司估值，给予2026年18倍PE 估值，对应目标价16.92元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

嗯嗯公司研究丨深度报告丨川投能源（ [Table_scodeMsg1] 600674.SH） [Table_Title] 雅砻江三部曲：三江汇流，穿透川投 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 穿透川投，公司参股 48%的雅砻江公司贡献核心业绩，参股 20%的大渡河公司为辅。复盘川投 能源的成长历程，2009 年定增收购雅砻江 48%的股权后，公司的成长性与雅砻江的机组投产 节奏高度相关，共享雅砻江公司的成长红利。站在当前时点，雅砻江公司两河口增发效益显著 以及大渡河公司新一轮投产周期开启共振，将为川投能源带来可观的业绩增量。同时随着两家 参股公司的资本开支压力逐步减轻以及盈利情况改善，"投分差"具备稳步提升的基础，川投能 源分红潜力有待释放。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 16.92 CNY [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in coal prices has mitigated the pressure from water inflow in the Yalong River, leading to a balanced development of hydropower and wind power [2]. - The company is expected to maintain stable dividends, committing to distribute at least 55% of its distributable profits in cash from 2024 to 2026 [13]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will be 0.87, 0.94, and 1.00 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 56,712 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%. However, a decline of 8.5% is expected in 2025 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 6,705 million CNY in 2023, reflecting a significant increase of 64.3% [4]. - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to be 11.4% in 2023, decreasing to 10.1% by 2025 [4]. Operational Insights - The company’s electricity generation in Q3 2025 was 314 billion kWh from hydropower, 123 billion kWh from thermal power, and 14 billion kWh from wind power, showing a year-on-year decrease of 15% for hydropower and 19% for thermal power [13]. - The operating costs in Q3 2025 were 79 billion CNY, down 22% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in coal prices [13]. - The financial expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 were -5.3 billion CNY, attributed to lower interest rates and a decrease in accounts receivable [13]. Industry Context - The Yalong River hydropower and wind power base is planned to have an installed capacity of 78 million kW, with hydropower and pumped storage accounting for 39 million kW each [13]. - The report notes that the company is currently developing several renewable energy projects, including the Yangniushan Wind Power and Zhalashan Photovoltaic projects [13].

Core Insights - The simultaneous river diversion of the Mengdigou and Yagen I hydropower stations marks a significant milestone in the construction of China's first integrated water-wind-solar energy base in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin [1][2][4] Group 1: Project Overview - The Mengdigou hydropower station has a total installed capacity of 2.4 million kilowatts and an average annual power generation of approximately 10.4 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The Yagen I hydropower station has an installed capacity of 300,000 kilowatts and an average annual power generation of about 1.15 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The completion of both stations is expected to save approximately 3.5 million tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 9 million tons annually [1] Group 2: Integrated Energy Base Development - The Yarlung Tsangpo River basin's integrated water-wind-solar energy base is planned to have a total installed capacity of 78 million kilowatts by 2035, with current clean energy capacity at approximately 21 million kilowatts [2] - The base aims to create a 100% renewable energy supply system and serve as a comprehensive demonstration base for integrated water-wind-solar energy development [2] Group 3: Engineering and Construction Innovations - The construction of the Mengdigou hydropower station incorporates intelligent systems for full lifecycle management, enhancing efficiency by over 40% [6] - The Yagen I hydropower station employs innovative construction methods to improve safety and efficiency during the river diversion process [5][6] Group 4: Economic and Social Impact - The Mengdigou hydropower project is expected to contribute approximately 1.05 billion yuan in taxes during construction and create around 5,000 jobs annually [7] - The Yagen I hydropower station will contribute about 140 million yuan in taxes during construction and create approximately 3,000 jobs each year [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][15][38] Core Views - The company has reported a revenue of 7.682 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.12% to 2.93 billion yuan [6][8] - The company achieved a cumulative revenue of 20.641 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, with a net profit of 7.539 billion yuan, up 4.34% year-on-year [6][8] - The company’s financial expenses have decreased by 3.07% year-on-year, indicating improved financial management [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company completed a total electricity generation of 596.266 billion kWh in the first three quarters, representing an increase of 11.90% year-on-year [7] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the company was 11.62%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [6][8] - The company’s gross profit margin stands at 60.68% [3] Project Development - The company has successfully launched the TB and Hard Beam water power stations, contributing to the increase in electricity generation [7][9] - The company is advancing the "water-wind-solar integration" base construction, laying the groundwork for future capacity growth [9][14] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 8.720 billion yuan, 9.276 billion yuan, and 9.747 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.47 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.52 yuan [15][16] - The company’s valuation is projected to be stable, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 21X for 2025, 19.74X for 2026, and 18.79X for 2027 [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 429 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.76 billion yuan, down 16.96% year-on-year. For the first three quarters, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.22 billion yuan, a decline of 4.54% year-on-year [1]. - The company's hydropower generation increased by 17.9% year-on-year to 4.86 billion kWh in the first three quarters, driven by the commissioning of new units at the controlled power company [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's controlled hydropower decreased by 6.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, impacting revenue [2]. - The Yalong River hydropower's revenue for the first three quarters was 19.338 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 8.03 billion yuan [3]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.89 billion, 5.15 billion, and 5.33 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.8, 14.1, and 13.6 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 429 million yuan, down 11.3% year-on-year; net profit was 1.76 billion yuan, down 16.96% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters, net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.22 billion yuan, a decline of 4.54% year-on-year [1]. Hydropower Generation - The company’s controlled hydropower generation reached 4.86 billion kWh in the first three quarters, up 17.9% year-on-year [2]. - The Yalong River hydropower generation in Q3 was approximately 28.31 billion kWh, down about 16% year-on-year due to reduced water inflow [3]. Revenue and Pricing - The average on-grid electricity price for controlled hydropower decreased by 6.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - Yalong River hydropower's Q3 revenue was 7.172 billion yuan, down 16.7% year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 4.89 billion, 5.15 billion, and 5.33 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 14.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.72 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall performance remains stable despite the impact of reduced water inflow in the Yalong River [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.13 billion, 7.62 billion, and 8.13 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with a slight adjustment in profit expectations [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the Yalong River hydropower segment reported revenue of 19.34 billion yuan, a decline of 3.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.8% to 8.03 billion yuan [2] - The company's thermal power generation decreased by 18.5% year-on-year to 13.165 billion kWh in Q3 2025, while solar power generation increased by approximately 32.98% to 1.71 billion kWh [3] - The average coal price in Qinhuangdao for July to September 2025 was approximately 672.1 yuan per ton, down 20.8% year-on-year, contributing to stable performance in the thermal power and renewable energy segments [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 16.2, 15.1, and 14.2 for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 53.55 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.39% compared to 2024 [4] - The company maintains a stable financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.16% and a net asset value per share of 8.28 yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year for the third quarter of 2025, but showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, maintaining a "buy" rating due to optimistic views on integrated development in renewable energy [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.876 billion yuan, down 13.98% year-on-year but up 18.29% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year but up 58.62% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported revenue of 40.572 billion yuan, down 8.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.517 billion yuan, down 0.92% year-on-year [1]. Power Generation Insights - The company's thermal power generation saw a significant decline in output, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.61% in Q3 2025, totaling 12.320 billion kWh, primarily due to increased hydropower generation in southern provinces [2]. - The average coal price for thermal power generation decreased significantly, which helped to offset the pressure on profit margins despite lower electricity trading prices [2]. Hydropower Performance - The Yalong River hydropower output in Q3 2025 decreased by 16.03% year-on-year to 28.165 billion kWh, attributed to lower water levels during the main flood season [3]. - Despite the challenges in Q4 2025, the company expects a significant year-on-year increase in net profit due to a one-time tax payment in Q4 2024 that affected previous results [3]. Renewable Energy Developments - The company experienced a slowdown in the pace of new renewable energy installations, with no new capacity added in Q3 2025, primarily due to pressure on electricity prices and declining profitability [3]. - For the first nine months of 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 1.57% and 38.13% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 5.062 billion kWh and 4.928 billion kWh [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 7.2 billion, 7.5 billion, and 7.8 billion yuan, respectively, with a target market value of 138.9 billion yuan and a target price of 17.35 yuan per share [4].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan is actively undertaking the responsibility of supporting national development strategies by building an innovative hub for technological self-reliance, ensuring the safety of industrial and supply chains, and becoming a key node in domestic circulation [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - Sichuan is focusing on enhancing six major advantageous industries, including electronic information, equipment manufacturing, food and textiles, energy and chemicals, advanced materials, and pharmaceutical health, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% in added value for these industries in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The province aims to deepen cooperation with eastern regions to promote industrial technology innovation and improve the resilience and safety of supply chains [2][3] - Sichuan has launched a quality improvement and doubling plan to form a new pattern of modern industrial development [4] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Sichuan is leveraging its strong educational and research resources to create a comprehensive service system for transforming innovation into productivity, focusing on key core technology projects in aerospace and artificial intelligence [11] - The province has established a new type of pilot platform for mid-term research and development, integrating resources across various institutions to enhance innovation capabilities [15] - Significant breakthroughs in key technologies have been achieved, including the launch of the world's first AI model satellite and advancements in clean energy equipment [13][14] Group 3: Energy Development - Sichuan is enhancing its energy structure by promoting a dual-main body system of hydropower and new energy, aiming to become a national clean energy hub [17][18] - The province's hydropower capacity is approximately 100 million kilowatts, accounting for over 70% of its total power generation capacity, with significant projects like the Baihetan Hydropower Station contributing to this [18] - By 2025, Sichuan plans to establish over 1.1 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power and 110,000 kilowatts of wind power, significantly increasing its renewable energy capacity [18][19] Group 4: Agricultural and Mineral Resources - Sichuan is committed to enhancing its agricultural productivity and securing the supply of strategic mineral resources, aiming to build a modern agricultural system and a strategic resource supply base [23][24] - The province has achieved a grain production of 726.8 billion jin in 2024, maintaining a stable output above 700 billion jin for five consecutive years [24] - Innovative mechanisms are being implemented to stimulate mineral exploration, with a focus on optimizing the mining rights allocation process and enhancing financing channels [25][26]