一些消费行业个股，正在凭借自身产品创新与渠道变革实现基本面增长。 | 作者 | | 紫枫 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 结合当前宏观经济数据、行业基本面变化及政策导向，食品饮料板块正呈现出比较清晰的投资逻辑。 社零总额同比增长2.9%（前值为3%），剔除汽车后增速达4.0%，其中餐饮收入同比增长3.8%且环比 提速（前值为0.9%），商品零售社零同比为2.8%（前值为3.3%）。 （来源：华泰证券研究所） （来源：华泰证券研究所） 而受以旧换新政策退坡的影响，家电零售额同比下降14.6%，汽车类同比下降6.6%。 宏观、政策与估值三重共振，板块值得一看 10月宏观数据显示消费领域逐步回暖，CPI同比由负转正至0.2%，环比同步提升0.2%，扣除食品和能 源后的核心CPI保持1.2%的同比增速。 （来源：华泰证券研究所） 其中，其他用品及服务、教育文化娱乐等细分领域价格均呈现不同程度上涨，反映出消费市场信心的 逐步修复。 另外，政策层面的持续催化为板块提供了重要支撑。今年以来，政府出台了不少提振消费的政策。财 政部明确继续实施提振消费专项行动，强调扩大服务消费，对重点领 ...

工业经济延续稳健增长态势。1—10月，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，工业生产韧性持 续显现。10月当月，规上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，其中高端制造领域表现亮眼：装备制造业、高技 术制造业、数字核心产品制造业分别增长8.0%、11.7%、9.4%，增速高于整体水平；计算机通信和其他 电子设备制造业、铁路船舶航空航天和其他运输设备制造业分别实现12.3%、18.1%的增长，彰显江苏 工业转型升级的坚实成效。 记者11月20日从省统计局获悉，今年以来全省坚守稳中求进工作总基调，持续加力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，推动各项宏观政策落地见效，前10月经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，工业、消 费、服务业等关键领域呈现诸多亮点。 消费市场持续回暖，内需潜力稳步释放。1—10月，全省社会消费品零售总额达38816.8亿元，同比 增长4.0%。10月当月，限额以上家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长7.4%，计算机及其配套产 品类更是增长48%，升级类、数码类消费需求旺盛。从累计数据看，1—10月全省限额以上批发业、零 售业销售额分别增长5.1%、7.6%，限额以上住宿业、餐饮业营业额分别增长2.7%、5.1% ...

本报讯(记者李晞)记者11月20日从省统计局获悉，今年以来全省坚守稳中求进工作总基调，持续加力稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动各项宏观政策落地见效，前10月经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进， 工业、消费、服务业等关键领域呈现诸多亮点。 工业经济延续稳健增长态势。1—10月，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，工业生产韧性持续显 现。10月当月，规上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，其中高端制造领域表现亮眼：装备制造业、高技术制 造业、数字核心产品制造业分别增长8.0%、11.7%、9.4%，增速高于整体水平；计算机通信和其他电子 设备制造业、铁路船舶航空航天和其他运输设备制造业分别实现12.3%、18.1%的增长，彰显江苏工业 转型升级的坚实成效。 消费市场持续回暖，内需潜力稳步释放。1—10月，全省社会消费品零售总额达38816.8亿元，同比增长 4.0%。10月当月，限额以上家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长7.4%，计算机及其配套产品类 更是增长48%，升级类、数码类消费需求旺盛。从累计数据看，1—10月全省限额以上批发业、零售业 销售额分别增长5.1%、7.6%，限额以上住宿业、餐饮业营业额分别增长 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The jewelry sector, particularly gold, saw a significant year-on-year increase of 37.6% in October, marking it as a standout performer in consumer spending [2] - The surge in gold purchases is attributed to a more than 50% increase in international gold prices this year, currently stabilizing above $4,100 per ounce, leading consumers to invest in gold as a safe asset [4] - Overall retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with rural consumption growing at a faster rate of 4.1% compared to urban areas, indicating a shift in spending patterns [9] Group 2: Industrial and Manufacturing Insights - The industrial output for October rose by 4.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing at 8% and 7.2% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [11] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-tech production, as evidenced by increased investments in smart equipment and advanced production lines [12] Group 3: Investment and Economic Challenges - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in real estate development investment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the property market [14] - Excluding the real estate sector, national investment actually increased by 1.7%, with manufacturing investments continuing to grow [17] Group 4: Trade and Export Dynamics - In October, the total value of imports and exports rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with imports increasing by 1.4%, indicating a rise in domestic demand [20] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has slowed, suggesting a potential easing of deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [21] Group 5: Market Performance - The stock market has recently surpassed the 4,000-point mark, reflecting increased investor confidence and a shift of funds from savings to equity investments [23]

Group 1: Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a long-term correction, with low domestic demand and significantly reduced valuations, creating a clear bottom logic for quality assets like liquor [1][2] - The report highlights four key sectors: liquor, snacks and health products, dairy, and restaurant chains, with a focus on potential recovery in demand and investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor market is facing weak demand, with consumer confidence remaining low and a negative year-on-year CPI for liquor products, leading to price declines in mainstream products [2] - High-end and mid-high-end liquor are performing relatively well, while the industry is entering a competitive era with significant internal differentiation among listed companies [2] - Companies are focusing on market order control, product iteration, and consumer engagement to improve market share, although profit margin growth is slowing [1][2] Group 3: Restaurant Chains - The overall restaurant market remains weak, but companies are showing signs of improvement due to strategic adjustments over the past two years [3] - The shift from price competition to quality-price ratio competition is expected to optimize the competitive environment [3] - Companies are embracing new retail channels and enhancing supply chain efficiency, with international expansion becoming a key growth direction [3] Group 4: Snacks - The trend towards healthier and low-calorie snacks is driving sales, particularly in the konjac product category, with brands like Salted Fish and Yanjin achieving strong sales [4] - The transformation of bulk snack retail formats and the growth of discount stores are contributing to market opportunities [4] - The sector is expected to benefit from channel growth and new product launches in 2026, with recommendations for specific brands [4] Group 5: Beverages - The beverage sector is witnessing a trend towards health and functionality, with high demand in specific subcategories [5][6] - Companies like Dongpeng Beverage are expanding nationally, with strong growth prospects and new product lines [6] Group 6: Health Products - The health product sector is being driven by new consumer trends, with brands that embrace new consumption patterns expected to benefit significantly [7] - Companies like Xianle Health are well-positioned to capitalize on high-demand channels and new product categories [7] Group 7: Dairy Products - The dairy market is expected to enter an upward price cycle, with raw milk prices stabilizing and deep processing capacity increasing [8] - Major dairy companies are improving their market share and profitability through strategic initiatives and government support [8] Group 8: Beer - The beer industry is facing rising raw material costs, which may lead to adjustments in product pricing and promotional strategies [9] - Companies like Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer are highlighted for their growth potential and strong dividend attributes [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 2.6 billion, 240 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 27.7%, 42.1%, and 50.8% [4][11]. - Short-term outlook indicates that consumption is expected to accelerate in Q4 due to increased investment in new products and marketing, with strong momentum in elastic single products and stable growth from the medical segment [2][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's revenue grew by 19%, with Q3 showing a sequential acceleration. The growth in revenue is attributed to the fading of public sentiment issues and the impact of new endorsements. Revenue growth rates for sanitary napkins, cotton soft towels, and adult apparel were 64%, 16%, and 17% respectively [11]. - The medical segment reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 44% for Q1-Q3 2025, with core products such as surgical consumables, high-end dressings, and health personal care items growing by 185.3%, 26.2%, and 24.6% respectively [11]. Profitability - The gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 48.3%. This improvement is driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products and stable discount rates [11]. - The report notes a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points, attributed to scale effects, reduced public relations expenses, and refined internal operations [11]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.0 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 20, and 17 times [2][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to adverse policy impacts on the liquor industry and a worsening sales environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million yuan, down 43.1% year-on-year - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 146 million yuan, a decline of 38.7% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, revenue was 229 million yuan, a decrease of 29.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of -25 million yuan, down 158.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Product and Regional Breakdown - In Q3 2025, revenue from high, medium, and low-end products was 151 million, 46 million, and 16 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -39.5%, -19.7%, and +16.4% - Revenue from within and outside the region was 173 million and 40 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.1% and -56.6% - The number of distributors in the region decreased by 2, while those outside increased by 4 compared to the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Sales Channels - Revenue from wholesale, direct sales, and online sales in Q3 2025 was 82 million, 106 million, and 24 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -50.9%, -15.6%, and -8.8% [1][2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 47.6%, a decrease of 12.21 percentage points year-on-year - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 14.7%, 8.5%, 1.1%, and 2.9%, with year-on-year changes of +0.80, -1.49, +0.86, and +1.94 percentage points, respectively - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was -11.1%, down 24.40 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Future Strategy - The company plans to strengthen its development foundation through four key dimensions: product, brand, promotion, and channel - It aims to create a product matrix covering all price ranges, enhance brand recognition, and optimize sales channels to improve market coverage and response efficiency [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.873 billion and 1.980 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -15.0% and +5.7% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 165 million and 170 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -42.3% and +3.3% [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the UK's retail sales in September increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, driven by a surge in demand for gold due to rising international gold prices [1] - The increase in retail sales is significantly attributed to online jewelry retailers reporting strong demand for gold, with online sales reaching the highest level since February 2022 [1] - The article also reflects on the historical context of the UK's gold reserves, noting that the sale of 395 tons of gold between 1999 and 2002 by then-Chancellor Gordon Brown resulted in a substantial financial loss for the UK, with current gold values exceeding $50 billion compared to the $3.5 billion received at the time of sale [1] Group 2 - The UK's gold reserves have decreased from a peak of 2,543 tons in the 1950s to the current 310 tons, ranking 16th in the world, following the significant sales conducted by Gordon Brown [2] - The average selling price of gold during the sales was $274.92 per ounce, while the current spot price has reached $4,144.36 per ounce, illustrating the dramatic increase in gold value over the years [1][2]

Core Insights - Shanghai's consumer market shows signs of recovery and increased vitality, with a 4.3% year-on-year growth in social retail sales in the first three quarters of 2025, ranking first among five international consumption centers despite being slightly below the national average of 4.5% [3][4] Group 1: Policy Impact - The implementation of the "2025 Consumption Expansion Action Plan" has led to increased consumption subsidies, particularly in major consumption areas, generating nearly 110 billion yuan in consumption through "trade-in" policies for appliances, furniture, and automobiles [3] - The "Le Shanghai" consumption vouchers have effectively stimulated consumer enthusiasm across various sectors, including dining, retail, and tourism, while also promoting supply-side innovation to enhance consumption scenarios [3] Group 2: Local Consumption Trends - The stabilization of the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above 3,800 points, has positively influenced local consumption, supported by a 4.3% increase in per capita disposable income [4] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences from basic needs to quality demands, with significant year-on-year retail growth in sports and entertainment goods (27.7%), furniture (22.1%), and home appliances (28.2%) [4] Group 3: Tourism and External Consumption - The relaxation of visa policies has led to a 37% year-on-year increase in inbound tourism, significantly boosting related sectors such as culture, tourism, and retail [5] - Events like the "Shanghai Summer" and "Tourism Festival" have further enhanced the synergy between inbound and local consumption, contributing to substantial economic growth [5] Group 4: Growth Dynamics - The low base effect from the previous year, when the consumer market was in recovery, has accentuated the growth trend observed in 2025, characterized by a dual pathway of recovery and structural upgrade in the consumption market [6]

Economic Performance - Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12,302.77 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The growth rates for July, August, and September were 7.8%, 13%, and 9.2% respectively, indicating a recovery in the consumption market [1] Consumer Confidence and Spending - The significant increase in the durable goods consumption willingness index from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics supports the recovery of the consumption market, reflecting its resilience and vitality [1] - Key categories driving consumption included home appliances (28.2%), furniture (22.1%), new energy vehicles (27%), and communication equipment (9.2%) [1] Policy Impact - The Shanghai government allocated 500 million yuan for issuing consumption vouchers in sectors such as dining, tourism, and culture, with a leverage ratio of 1:3.25 for cultural vouchers [3] - Events like the "Shanghai Summer" international consumption season and the Shanghai Tourism Festival have significantly increased domestic and international tourist numbers, contributing to service consumption growth [3] Night Economy Development - The development of the night economy has created new consumption scenarios, with total night consumption reaching 880.09 billion yuan since June, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [4] - The integration of traditional brands with contemporary trends has attracted younger consumers and enhanced their shopping experience [4] External Factors - The global economic recovery and the release of open policy dividends have positively influenced Shanghai's consumption, with inbound tourism numbers increasing by 37% year-on-year to 6.366 million in the first three quarters [4] - Shanghai's duty-free sales have also seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 83.8%, leading the nation in this sector [5] Recommendations for Future Growth - It is suggested that Shanghai should continue to strengthen consumption subsidy policies, expand their applicability, and enhance the integration of commerce, tourism, and culture to further unlock consumption potential [5]