习近平总书记指出，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 供需两侧发力 业态焕新升级——在"活力中国调研行"中感受消费向"新"力 新华社记者王雨萧、黄韬铭、赵鹏昊 消费是经济增长的"主引擎"，也是民生幸福的"晴雨表"。 近日，新华社记者跟随"活力中国调研行"团队深入福建、湖北、四川等地调研采访看到，各地从供需两 侧持续发力，以新场景、新业态、新供给不断激活消费向"新"力，释放发展新动能。 场景向新：多元需求引领文旅新趋势 夜幕降临，乌篷船缓缓驶出码头，成都锦江两岸的灯光随音乐变幻闪烁，光影交错间，东门码头、安顺 廊桥等文旅地标渐次呈现。 "船运行很平稳，江风清凉，感觉'人在画中游'。"来自广东的游客黄女士说。 水上景色宜人，岸边同样热闹非凡。水陆联动的"火锅巴士"香气四溢，码头特色市集里的文创产品琳琅 满目……随着夜间经济生态圈不断拓展，"夜游锦江"已经成为"老成都"和"国际范"兼备的文旅消费新名 片。 消费活力涌动，离不开便捷高效的服务。成都春熙路商圈的IFS商场内，一名柬埔寨游客在购物后来 到"即买即退"集中退付点，很快就领取到退税预付金。"成都是个很美的城市，你们的服务非 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 "Charm Ranking" released by the New First-Tier Cities Research Institute shows a reshuffling of 70 third-tier cities, with Zhongshan ranked 3rd, Nanyang 11th, and Shantou 16th, highlighting their competitive advantages in industry, population, and consumption [1][8]. Group 1: Zhongshan - Zhongshan's rise to 3rd place is attributed to its advantageous location as "Shenzhen West," with the Shenzhong Passage expected to open next year, reducing travel time to 20 minutes [3]. - The city has attracted 210 high-end manufacturing projects from Shenzhen, with a total investment exceeding 180 billion yuan, while also modernizing traditional industrial clusters, leading to the highest industrial profit growth rate in the province for two consecutive years [3]. - With housing prices only one-third of Shenzhen's and an increase of 80,000 permanent residents in six months, Zhongshan's commercial appeal has significantly increased [3]. Group 2: Nanyang - Nanyang, ranked 11th, has transformed from a "Central Grain Warehouse" to a "Central Medicine Valley," leveraging its reputation as the hometown of traditional Chinese medicine [5]. - The city has developed three trillion-yuan industrial chains in traditional Chinese medicine, mugwort, and meat products, with a national-level traditional Chinese medicine high-tech zone established [5]. - Nanyang's transportation infrastructure, including the intersection of the Jiaotang and Nanjin high-speed railways, facilitates access to major cities, contributing to a significant influx of labor and a notable increase in the local consumer market [5]. Group 3: Shantou - Shantou, ranked 16th, capitalizes on its dual strengths of being a "Hometown of Overseas Chinese" and a port city [7]. - Over the past decade, Shantou has introduced 460 overseas Chinese-funded projects, and the second phase of the Guoao Port has been put into operation, achieving an annual throughput of over 4 million TEUs [7]. - The city has successfully turned local specialties like Chaoshan cuisine, toys, and underwear into popular live-streaming products, with its express delivery volume ranking in the top 20 nationwide, fostering entrepreneurship among young people [7].

Core Insights - The new consumption model is empowering the economy beyond mere sales growth, showcasing multi-dimensional value through "consumption expansion, industrial upgrading, and vitality release" [1][2] - Experts believe that the vigorous development of new consumption will be a crucial driver for stimulating consumer demand and promoting economic growth in the coming period [2][3] Consumption Expansion and Economic Growth - New consumption activates existing potential while opening up new growth spaces, with policies like the upgrade of the old-for-new consumption scheme contributing significantly [2] - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to expand subsidies to 12 product categories, leading to sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan and benefiting 400 million people by June 2025 [2] Supply-Side Transformation - New consumption is driving industries towards green and intelligent transformation, with over 50% of new energy vehicle replacements and 90% of first-level energy-efficient appliances sold [3] - Emerging consumption forms such as instant retail and VR events are expected to grow rapidly, with the instant retail market projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [3] Diverse Consumer Demands - Innovations in retail and e-commerce are enhancing consumption efficiency and shopping experiences, while the rise of content creation and knowledge payment is expanding consumption into cultural and intellectual realms [4] - The growth of new consumption is supported by factors such as the widespread application of new information technologies, improved infrastructure, rising income levels, and an evolving consumer demographic [4] Emotional and Experiential Consumption - Modern consumers are shifting from purchasing goods to seeking emotional value, as seen in the rise of experiences like escape rooms and urban exploration [5] - The rapid growth of health and cultural consumption reflects new consumption's response to the demand for a better quality of life [5] Challenges and Development Gaps - Despite rapid growth, new consumption faces challenges such as regional imbalances, supply shortages, and regulatory lag [6] - The digital divide is evident, with rural internet penetration at 65.6%, significantly lower than the national average of 78.6%, hindering the potential of new consumption in rural areas [6] Recommendations for High-Quality Development - Experts suggest a multi-faceted approach to enhance new consumption, including innovative regulatory frameworks and improved digital infrastructure to bridge the digital divide [7] - The development of new consumption is seen as a pathway to expand domestic demand and transition towards high-quality economic growth, with a focus on meeting personalized consumer needs [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Consumption shows significant differentiation, with strong resilience in service and online demand, while commodity consumption remains under pressure. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of service retail sales is faster than that of commodity retail sales. Some industry policies are optimized to offset the downward pressure. Domestic policies focus on consumption expansion and industrial upgrading. However, real estate risks are still not cleared. The average housing price in 100 cities across the country has dropped by more than 33% from the peak, and the average decline in first-tier cities has reached 29.5%. Currently, housing prices have not stopped falling. The economic structural contradictions are prominent, and further interest rate cuts, optimization of mortgage rates, and expansion of fiscal deficits may be needed to support growth. The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals. [1][8][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, the consumption growth rate continued to decline, with prominent performance in service consumption and online consumption. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, down 0.2 pct from January to July. In terms of sub-items, from January to August, the year-on-year growth rates of commodity retail sales and service retail sales were 4.8% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.1 pct from January to July [9]. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", proposing 19 measures in five aspects [16]. - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau issued a notice to optimize and adjust the personal housing property tax pilot policy, stating that homebuyers who hold a Shanghai residence permit for three years and work and live in Shanghai and purchase a new home in Shanghai as their family's first home are temporarily exempt from property tax [16]. - On September 18, the Fed announced a 25BP interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. The interest rate dot plot shows that the median expectation of Fed officials is that there will be two more 25BP interest rate cuts this year, one more than the prediction in June [16]. 3.2 Meso-High Frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 14, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 6.1 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 6.7 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [15]. - As of September 18, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 614.469 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [15]. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [20]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 14, the container throughput of ports in the current week was 6.652 million twenty-foot equivalent units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [23]. - As of September 19, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 496.3, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [23]. - As of September 14, the postal express pick-up volume in the current week was 3.83 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [29]. - As of September 14, the railway freight volume in the current week was 80.434 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 57.712 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [31]. 3.2.3 Operating Rate - As of September 17, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 78.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 pct. As of September 18, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year-on-year increase of 3.0 pct [36]. - As of September 18, the soda ash operating rate was 85.8%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 pct. As of September 19, the average PX operating rate was 86.8%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.1% [39]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.731 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [43]. - As of September 12, the second-hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.598 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 19, the average pork wholesale price was 19.7 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%, and a decrease of 2.0% compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 5.0 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%, and an increase of 3.4% compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.8 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, and a decrease of 1.0% compared to four weeks ago [50]. - As of September 19, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, and a decrease of 1.3% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.3 US dollars/barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, and an increase of 0.6% compared to four weeks ago [55][56]. - As of September 19, the average spot price of rebar was 3144.2 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a decrease of 3.2% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 809.4 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and an increase of 3.3% compared to four weeks ago [60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 19, the overnight Shibor was 1.46%, up 5.30BP from September 15. R001 was 1.50%, up 5.19BP from September 15; R007 was 1.52%, up 3.29BP from September 15. DR001 was 1.46%, up 5.04BP from September 15; DR007 was 1.51%, up 2.64BP from September 15. IBO001 was 1.50%, up 5.24BP from September 15; IBO007 was 1.54%, up 1.67BP from September 15 [63]. - Most treasury bond yields increased. On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year treasury bonds were 1.39%/1.62%/1.87%/2.20% respectively, down 1.0BP/up 0.5BP/up 0.8BP/up 1.7BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year China Development Bank bonds were 1.60%/1.79%/2.02%/2.29% respectively, up 2.1BP/down 2.9BP/down 0.9BP/up 2.7BP from September 12 [65]. - On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year local government bonds were 1.54%/1.83%/2.02% respectively, unchanged/down 1.5BP/down 0.4BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of AAA 1-month/1-year and AA+ 1-month/1-year interbank certificates of deposit were 1.58%/1.68%/1.60%/1.71% respectively, up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP/up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP from September 12 [67]. - As of September 19, 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 8BP/4BP/4BP/4BP from September 12 [73]. - On September 19, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.11/7.11 respectively, up 109/-99 pips from September 12 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for interest rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. In the past month, it has been decreasing overall. On September 19, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.6 years, a decrease of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 12) [79]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend. In the past month, the duration has increased rapidly and then fluctuated. On September 19, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.03 years compared to last week (September 12) [81]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals [84].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Xiangchao" consumption promotion series in Changsha aims to enhance economic development through sports and cultural integration, leveraging the 2025 "Xiangchao" league as a platform to stimulate consumer activity and promote local products [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event "Xiangchao" was inaugurated on September 7 at the Helong Sports Center East Square, attended by key officials from the provincial commerce and tourism departments, as well as the deputy mayor [1] - The 2025 "Xiangchao" league is positioned not only as a football event but also as a significant opportunity for deep integration of culture, sports, and commerce, aimed at releasing consumer vitality [1] Group 2: Activities and Initiatives - Changsha has launched four major themed activities under the "Xiangchao Dangran·Changsha Goodies" theme, including the introduction of the "Xiangchao Ticket Discount Card" and the establishment of a themed market [1] - The city will set up a "second venue" for viewing matches throughout the city and distribute 20.25 million yuan in exclusive "Xiangchao" consumption vouchers to create an immersive experience combining watching matches, shopping, and tourism [1] Group 3: Government Commitment - The deputy mayor emphasized the importance of provincial and municipal collaboration, regional synergy, and high standards in service support to enhance the consumption environment and facilities [1] - The government plans to work with businesses to introduce more consumer-friendly policies, expand the supply of quality products and services, and leverage the popularity of the "Xiangchao" event to boost overall consumer activity in the city [1]

Group 1: Consumer Goods and Market Trends - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods has shown significant effectiveness, with 48.8 million consumers purchasing 51.5 million digital products, generating sales of 143.26 billion yuan as of May 22 [2] - E-commerce platforms have seen a surge in sales during the "618 shopping festival," with notable increases in categories such as 3C products, where sales of action cameras and gaming laptops grew over 300% and 110% respectively [2] - The automotive market is experiencing steady growth, with passenger car sales reaching 1.755 million units in April, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and new energy vehicle sales growing by 33.9% to 905,000 units [3] Group 2: Emerging Consumption Sectors - New consumption sectors such as pet products and trendy toys are gaining traction, with pet brand sales doubling during the "618" event, showcasing the competitive advantage of domestic brands [4] - The toy sector also reported impressive growth, with companies like Pop Mart seeing a revenue increase of 165%-170% in Q1, driven by a 95%-100% growth in the Chinese market [4] - Health-related consumption is on the rise, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods increasing by 23.3% in April, and sales of health monitoring devices growing by 41.6% in Q1 [5] Group 3: Policy Support and Economic Outlook - Various cities are implementing comprehensive measures to boost consumption, focusing on new consumption models and local economic development [7] - The government is expected to continue supporting consumption and technology sectors, with fiscal spending likely to increase, indicating a positive outlook for sustained consumer growth [8] - The overall sentiment in the consumer sector is optimistic, with many companies in the sports and retail industries expressing confidence in future growth [6]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the need to implement Xi Jinping's important speeches and directives regarding Hunan's work, focusing on development and enhancing judgment, execution, and penetration capabilities to achieve annual goals [4][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The overall economic operation of the city has shown stability, improved quality and efficiency, and enhanced expectations despite facing severe challenges [4]. - There is a need to objectively assess the achievements of the first half of the year while addressing existing problems and shortcomings [4]. Group 2: Investment and Development - The city aims to accelerate investment growth by promoting major projects in key areas such as the Southern Integration City and Xiangjiang Science City, and by innovating and improving investment attraction models [5]. - Efforts will be made to revitalize existing assets and effectively utilize land resources, alongside enhancing project management mechanisms [5]. Group 3: Consumption and Service Sector - The focus will be on expanding consumption and improving the service industry, particularly in sectors like retail, transportation, finance, telecommunications, and internet services [5]. - There will be an emphasis on integrating cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports development to stimulate consumer vitality [5]. Group 4: Reform and Stability - The city plans to deepen reforms and expand openness, promoting innovation and ensuring stable development of foreign trade and investment [5]. - Safety and risk management will be prioritized, with efforts to expand employment opportunities and accelerate the progress of public welfare projects [5].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, consumption contributed 52% to China's economic growth, becoming the main engine driving the economy [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with online retail sales growing by 8.5% [1] - New consumption models and trends, such as self-care and emotional consumption, are emerging, indicating a vibrant consumption market [1][2] Expansion - The consumer market is showing robust growth, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles surpassed 5 million units, marking a 33.3% year-on-year increase [1] - The retail sales of sports and entertainment goods, as well as gold and jewelry, saw double-digit growth [1] Quality Improvement - Consumer preferences have shifted from merely acquiring products to seeking quality, with a notable rise in green and smart products [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated rapid growth in energy-efficient and smart home appliances [1] Renewal - New consumption trends are flourishing, with various new models and business formats emerging, such as night economy and "IP + consumption" [1] - The popularity of collectible blind boxes, like "Labubu," has gained global traction [1] Openness - The expansion of visa-free travel has attracted more foreign tourists, with a significant increase in foreign visitors during holidays [2] - The number of foreign tourists entering China during the May Day and Dragon Boat festivals increased by 72.7% and 59.4% respectively [2] Future Strategies - To further enhance consumption's role as an economic stabilizer, increasing residents' income levels is crucial [3] - Improving the consumption environment through better market regulation and infrastructure is essential [3] - The government plans to optimize funding for the "old-for-new" policy and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy [3]

Core Insights - The 2025 "Must-Eat List" award ceremony successfully concluded in Shenzhen, covering Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian provinces, with 551 restaurants recognized, highlighting a strong preference for local flavors and long-established eateries [1][2] Group 1: Award Ceremony Highlights - The 2025 "Must-Eat List" was fully revealed on June 25, featuring 3,091 restaurants across 144 cities, with 25 new culinary cities added to the list [2] - In the Guangdong province, 396 restaurants made the list, ranking first in the number of recognized establishments nationwide [2] - Over 70% of the recognized restaurants in Guangdong are small local eateries, and nearly 35% are over ten years old, indicating a trend towards traditional dining experiences [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The data shows that local eateries and long-standing restaurants are the main focus of this year's "Must-Eat List," with nearly 80% of the total list comprising small local shops and over 40% being establishments older than ten years [2] - The increase in recognition of local flavors is evident, with nearly 55% of the restaurants on the list being new entries, enhancing the sense of discovery for consumers [2] Group 3: Regional Growth and Marketing Initiatives - The growth of dining orders from users outside the local area in Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian provinces is outpacing overall market growth, driven by local cuisine preferences [5] - The upcoming third "Must-Eat Festival" in July will involve significant marketing investments to convert the list's recognition into new consumption momentum across all listed cities [6] - Future award ceremonies will be held in Shenyang, Chongqing, and Xi'an to further promote local eateries and engage with local governments to stimulate consumption and cultural innovation [6]

Core Points - The article discusses the implementation of a "Free Exhibition and Sales" program in Meizhou City, aimed at promoting local industries and enhancing economic development [1][3] - The program focuses on key sectors such as electronic information, automotive parts, smart home appliances, and modern agriculture, creating a comprehensive platform for innovation and entrepreneurship [1][3] Summary by Sections Program Objectives - The "Free Exhibition and Sales" program aims to integrate resources across the city and support local businesses and entrepreneurs by providing free exhibition spaces [1] - The initiative is designed to facilitate product display, project matching, and policy promotion, thereby enhancing the local economy [1][3] Support Measures - Local exhibition space will be provided for various events, with each county required to offer at least three venues of over 1,000 square meters [2] - A minimum of 20 free standard exhibition booths will be available for each event, prioritizing local entrepreneurs and businesses [1][2] Cross-Regional Support - The program includes the establishment of permanent exhibition areas in key locations within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, offering free exhibition spaces for local enterprises [2] - Each county is tasked with organizing at least one large-scale exhibition annually in major cities or overseas, providing free booths to eligible participants [2] Policy Duration - The support measures are effective from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, allowing eligible teams and businesses to apply for the "Free Exhibition and Sales" services during this period [1][3]