文 / 张向东 十几年前 一 个 周末 的 晚上 ，中改院院长迟福林去澳大利亚悉尼考察，到了 晚上 想 找个地方吃 饭 。 结果 发现， 很多餐馆都爆满 。 怎么会这样？ 不仅如此，他还对社保、医疗健康、教育等基本公共服务领域的重大改革课题，进行了深入研究 。 他是中国经济体制领域中的"改革老兵"。 二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五 " 规划建议 提出， " 十五五 " 期间，要实现"居民收入增长和 经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步，分配结构得到优化，中等收入群体持续扩大， 社会保障制度更加优化更可持续，基本公共服务均等化水平明显提升。""坚持惠民生和促消费、投 资于物和投资于人紧密结合"。 投资于人，钱从哪里来？在房地产行业受到较大冲击、资产端发生较大改变的情况下，中等收入群体 如何继续扩大？老龄化加剧背景下，中国社保支出压力如何缓解？基本公共服务均等化如何实现？城 乡差距如何进一步缩小？ 根据世界银行发布的2025年最新标准： 人均国民总收入（ GNI）达到或超过13935美元，即属于 高收入国家。而 中国2024年人均GNI为1.34万美元， 已非常 接近高收入国家门槛。 成为高收入国家， ...

Economic Performance - The US economy showed strong performance in 2023 with a total output of $27.37 trillion, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year growth after adjusting for inflation, which is an increase of $1.65 trillion compared to 2022 [1][3] - Consumer spending was a significant driver, with retail sales increasing by 3.2% for the year and a notable 5.6% year-on-year jump in December [1][3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surged nearly 30% from November to January, marking the fastest increase since the 1990s [1] Government Spending and Debt - The US national debt rose from $23 trillion in 2019 to $34 trillion in 2023, with an increase of $11 trillion over four years, largely due to government stimulus measures [3] - The quarterly GDP figures for 2023 were $6.55 trillion, $6.8 trillion, $6.93 trillion, and $7.09 trillion, each surpassing the annual output of Japan or Germany [3] Comparison with China - China's total output in 2023 was 126.06 trillion yuan, equivalent to approximately $17.89 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, which is more than double the US growth rate [3] - The gap between the US and China widened from $5.77 trillion two years ago to $9.48 trillion, with China accounting for only 65.36% of the US economy [3] - China's consumer contribution rate reached a historic high of 82.5%, while the export surplus was $822.3 billion [3] Investment and Market Trends - Corporate investment showed signs of recovery, particularly in the tech sector, with the Dow Jones index rising by 13.7% over the year [4] - The US economy's resilience is attributed to consumer spending, which constitutes nearly 80% of the total economic output [3][4] Future Projections - For 2024, the US GDP is projected to rise to $29.18 trillion, with a growth rate of 2.8%, while China's GDP is expected to reach 134.91 trillion yuan (approximately $18.80 trillion) with a growth rate of 5.0% [7] - The International Monetary Fund forecasts China's growth at 4.8% for 2024, while the US is projected to grow at 1.9% in 2025 [7][9] Structural Challenges - The US economy benefits from strong consumer demand and low unemployment, while China faces challenges such as real estate debt, low consumer confidence, and high youth unemployment [9] - The structural differences between the two economies are highlighted by the US's reliance on consumer spending and investment, while China's economy is more dependent on exports and manufacturing [9]

11月4日，2025年国际金融领袖投资峰会举行。中国银行副董事长兼行长张辉表示，前三季度，国内最 终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为53.5%，拉动GDP增长2.8个百分点。中国银行的研究院预测，未来该数 据可能会进一步上升到60%，拉动经济的作用是非常明显的。他表示，中国消费有一定的基础支撑，随 着居民收入增长，消费潜力会逐步放大，服务消费进入快速增长阶段。（上证报） ...

Core Insights - Consumption is a vital engine for economic growth, and individual businesses play a crucial role in stimulating economic microcirculation [1] - The Changzhou Economic Development Zone Tax Bureau focuses on providing precise and efficient services to support the development of individual businesses [1] Group 1: Tax Services and Support - A tax law promotion event was held at Gelin Park, a new commercial complex in Changzhou, featuring 18 first stores and 54 stores from the eastern city [1] - The "Jing Tax Pioneer" service team from the Tax Bureau provided personalized policy guidance and detailed explanations of tax-related processes to individual businesses [1][2] - The Tax Bureau launched a "one-on-one service" for first-time store owners to assist with tax-related business and invoice adjustments [2] Group 2: Event Outcomes - The event distributed over 120 tax promotional materials and provided policy consultations to 60 individuals, assisting 32 taxpayers with specific tax guidance [2] - Gelin Park achieved a cumulative sales revenue of over 380 million yuan within 9 days of opening, attracting over 880,000 visitors [2] - The Tax Bureau aims to continuously optimize tax services and enhance proactive outreach to effectively support market entities [2]

封面新闻记者 刘彦谷 消费是拉动经济增长的主引擎，是畅通经济循环的关键环节。近年来，广元市围绕提振消费发力，为市民提供了更多"有新意、有体验、有温度"的消费空 间。今年，更是坚持"活动+政策"双轮驱动，从"春启万象"到"潮购金秋"，举办各类促销活动超1700余场，直接拉动消费超50亿元，特别是借力"川超"赛 事，强化"赛事+消费"联动，实现人气、财气双提升，前三季度全市社消零总额突破406亿元，同比增长5.8%。此次活动既为激活区域消费潜力、服务新 发展格局提供有力支撑，更为深化毗邻地区合作、打造区域消费中心注入新的动能。 开展促销活动、特色商品展，发布推介新品，发放消费券……10月27日晚，广元市文化艺术中心广场人头攒动、热闹非凡，"潮购金秋·惠聚广元"全域消 费季暨第二届川陕甘商品交易活动在此举行。 活动现场。郭桂花摄 据了解，本次活动精心打造了"1+6+N"活动矩阵，主会场市文化艺术中心广场设立八大展区、汇聚270多家优质企业。花都繁华里、武曌天街、金橄榄广 场等六大分会场和N个参与会场同步联动，涵盖老字号、数智消费等多个领域，实现传统与创新并重、线上与线下并进，让消费活力持续释放。活动将持 续至11月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee's communique is favorable for the technology sector, and the science - innovation 50 index has regained strength. The stock market is crucial for boosting residents' consumption confidence, and a stable stock market can enhance the internal impetus of the domestic economic cycle. In the context of weakening export expectations and investment slowdown, consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [5][9][20] - The "15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions" propose forward - looking layout of future industries, with quantum technology, bio - manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interface, embodied intelligence, 6G and other fields becoming new economic growth points. Chinese capital may be migrating structurally towards stocks, attracting overseas investors [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes adhering to the economic construction as the center, promoting high - quality development, achieving self - reliance and strength in high - level science and technology, expanding domestic demand, steadily expanding institutional opening - up, improving people's livelihood, and promoting green transformation [4][5][6] - The "Learning Times" article highlights the importance of stabilizing the stock market in increasing residents' property income and boosting consumption confidence [9] Stock Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high in 10 years. The Shanghai 50 Index representing the value style has reached a new high in the first half of the week. After being encouraged by the Fourth Plenary Session's communique, the technology sector led the rise on Friday, and the chip sector also regained strength [11][14][17] - The financing balance remains stable, with 2.93 million new A - share accounts opened in September. In August, non - bank financial institutions had an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, indicating a transfer of residents' savings to the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in September reached 7.2%, which is conducive to the upward movement of the stock market [22][25][28] Economic Data - In September, the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the CPI for consumer goods increased by 0.3% month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing fixed - asset investment in September was - 1.9%, infrastructure investment decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and real estate development investment continued to decline with a year - on - year growth rate of - 21.2% [31][34][40] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.0%. The output of industrial robots in September was 76,200 units, a new record, with a year - on - year growth rate of 41.1% [43][46] International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, China's commodity competitiveness increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month. The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The sales of US wholesalers in August reached a record high of 711.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [49][52][55] - The US capital goods imports in August were 91.9 billion US dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating an acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [58] Investment Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, wait for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month. The long positions of stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai 50 Index. For stock index option trading, as the market is still in a large - range volatile consolidation state, it is advisable to wait and see [20][21] - Before and after the China - US agreement at the end of the month, consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the stock index, with the CSI 300 Index being a good choice for both offense and defense [64][66]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year, with consumption becoming the primary driver of economic growth [1][4][12] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, indicating a significant increase in consumer spending [4][5] - Despite the positive growth, there are concerns about the downward trend in GDP growth rates and the need for macroeconomic policy adjustments to maintain the target of around 5% for the year [2][12] Group 2 - The articles emphasize that consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth, especially in the context of low investment and external trade uncertainties [4][5] - Various macroeconomic policies have been implemented to boost consumption, including significant fiscal measures and support for consumer goods [5][6] - The articles also note that while consumption is strong, there are challenges such as declining retail sales growth and low consumer price index (CPI) growth, which may affect overall economic sentiment [7][8] Group 3 - Experts predict that achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% is feasible, but it requires addressing the gap between macroeconomic statistics and microeconomic perceptions [12][13] - The anticipated economic policies include measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance residents' income, which are crucial for sustaining consumption growth [10][11] - Looking ahead, the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to focus on maintaining a GDP growth target of around 4.5% to 5.3%, with an emphasis on structural reforms and social welfare improvements [14][15]

Group 1 - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, showing resilience amid external challenges and ranking among the top major economies globally [3] - The high-tech manufacturing sector's value added increased by 9.6%, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and green energy consumption [4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365.877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth [5] Group 2 - The total value of China's goods trade reached 33.61 trillion yuan, marking a 4% year-on-year increase and setting a historical high for the same period [6] - Market activity has improved significantly, with cargo and passenger turnover increasing by 4.8% and 4.4% respectively, and stock trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen rising by 106.8% [7] - The government remains optimistic about achieving annual economic targets, supported by ample policy space and tools to address various risks [8]

Group 1: Tariff War and Its Impact - The tariff war initiated by the U.S. has led to a significant decrease in China's exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of 33.1% in August [3][4] - The U.S. has imposed a total of 50% tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has responded with a 30% tariff on U.S. imports, indicating a lack of complete parity in the tariff structure [4][5] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China have seen some flexibility from both sides, with China showing willingness to negotiate on certain tariffs, such as the 20% fentanyl tariff [5][14] Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - FDI in China has declined significantly, dropping to levels seen in 2010, with a decrease of over $100 billion compared to previous highs [21][22] - Despite the decline in FDI, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) is on the rise, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [21][22] - The competitive landscape in China has made it challenging for foreign companies to establish profitable operations, leading to a natural decline in FDI [21][22] Group 3: Employment and Industry Dynamics - The shift in industry dynamics suggests that manufacturing alone may not create sufficient employment opportunities, as the sector's contribution to non-agricultural employment is less than 15% [27][28] - The rise of service industries and flexible employment models is becoming increasingly important for job creation, as traditional manufacturing jobs decline [31][32] - The trend of "China +1" indicates that while companies may establish operations abroad, they are not fully abandoning their domestic bases, reflecting a more integrated global supply chain strategy [16][17] Group 4: Global Supply Chain Adjustments - The concept of a "flexible global value chain" is emerging, allowing Chinese companies to adapt quickly to tariff changes by shifting production to countries with lower tariffs [16][17] - The reliance on Chinese suppliers remains high, as many products lack viable alternatives, making it difficult for U.S. companies to fully disengage from Chinese manufacturing [13][18] - The challenges faced by foreign companies in China are often due to increased competition from local firms, rather than solely the impact of tariffs [20][21]

Economic Growth and Development - Hubei's economic total has surpassed 6 trillion yuan, achieving an average annual growth rate of 7.1% since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with three years of leading growth in the central region [1] - The economic share of Hubei in the central region increased from 19.5% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 20.9% in 2024, indicating a strong economic performance [1] Technological Innovation - Hubei has made significant advancements in technology, producing the world's first high-precision Beidou chip and other cutting-edge technologies in the first half of the year [3] - The establishment of a nationally influential technology innovation center in Wuhan has improved its global ranking in technology clusters from 29th to 13th [4] - The province has 45 national key laboratories and 164 national innovation platforms, with a technology achievement conversion rate of 66.5% [4] Employment and Entrepreneurship - Hubei has focused on high-quality employment, with over 900,000 new jobs created annually for four consecutive years, and over 400,000 jobs for college graduates in the last three years [5] - The province has implemented various policies to stabilize employment, including support for industries with strong employment capabilities [5][6] - Hubei promotes entrepreneurship through a comprehensive policy package and a three-tiered entrepreneurial platform [6][7] Consumer Market and Tourism - Consumption has become a new engine for Hubei's economic growth, with significant sales in the automotive and home appliance sectors, generating over 160 billion yuan in consumption [8] - Hubei's tourism sector is thriving, with 8.73 billion visitors expected in 2024, a 13.23% increase year-on-year, and tourism revenue projected at 901.16 billion yuan, an 18.8% increase [9] - The province is actively developing a robust cultural and tourism industry, with 1,124 planned and ongoing projects totaling nearly 500 billion yuan in investment [9]