Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]

Group 1 - In July, U.S. retail sales showed broad growth, with a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, surpassing market expectations, and June's data revised up to a 0.9% increase [1] - Nine out of thirteen major retail categories experienced growth, with auto sales recording the largest increase since March [1] - Online retail and general merchandise stores performed well, benefiting from promotional events by Amazon, Walmart, and Target [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive retail sales report, consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in early August, raising concerns about the sustainability of retail sales momentum [2] - Economists suggest a higher likelihood of softening consumer spending in the second half of the year due to tariff uncertainties and recent employment data [2] - The July retail sales report indicated a 0.5% increase in the "control group" sales, which is used to calculate GDP, with significant growth in categories like furniture and sports goods, although some of this increase may reflect inflation [2] Group 3 - Economists noted that while July retail sales benefited from strong online shopping and auto sales, consumers reduced spending on dining and beverages, indicating a shift towards essential goods amid slowing disposable income growth [3] - Inflation data showed that businesses passed on tariff costs to consumers less than expected, but wholesale profit margins increased significantly, suggesting future direct impacts of tariffs on consumers [3] - Additionally, U.S. industrial production declined in July, indicating weakness in manufacturing output [3]

Economic Indicators - The June PCE price index in the US increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February, with the previous value also revised up to 2.8% [3] Inflation Trends - Service sector inflation is accelerating, with rising costs for durable goods also noted [4] - Prices for household goods have surged due to the impact of the trade war [6] - Healthcare costs are beginning to rise [8] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation grew by only 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the decline from the previous month [10] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest downturn since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [10] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [10] - The savings rate is steady at 4.5%, reflecting household caution amid economic uncertainty [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with rising core inflation raising concerns, while weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt calls for interest rate cuts [12] - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions [12] - Recent trade policies and potential tariffs proposed by former President Trump are viewed as risks that could further elevate inflation [12] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock index futures maintained an upward trend, while Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, indicating market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [13] - The June PCE data has intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [13]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs, driven by strong retail data and a decrease in initial jobless claims [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.52% to 44,484.49 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.75% to 20,885.65 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.54% to 6,297.36 points [1] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month in June, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% and reversing a 0.9% decline in May [2] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, grew by 0.5% in June, up from a downwardly revised 0.2% in May [2] - Ten out of thirteen major retail categories experienced growth, with auto sales rebounding after two months of decline [2] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in June, aligning with market expectations [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, marking a decrease of 7,000 and the lowest level since mid-April, indicating a resilient job market [3] Cryptocurrency Legislation - The U.S. House of Representatives passed three significant cryptocurrency bills, including the "Genius Act" aimed at major regulatory reforms for cryptocurrencies [4] - The "Clarity Act" was also passed, which seeks to establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets [4] - President Trump is expected to sign an executive order to open alternative investments, including cryptocurrencies, to the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose due to positive U.S. economic data and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel [5] - Gold futures fell by 0.41% to $3,345.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.83% to $38.44 per ounce [5]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The PCE price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in May, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year, slightly above expectations but still consistent with moderate inflation [1] - Economists anticipate that inflation may intensify in the coming months as businesses pass higher import tariffs onto consumers [1][6] Group 2: Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by 0.3% after adjusting for inflation, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [3] - The decline in consumer spending is widespread and aligns with a drop in consumer confidence, attributed to uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's economic policies [3] - Spending on motor vehicles decreased by 6%, reversing the surge seen in March and April as consumers rushed to purchase before tariffs took effect [3] Group 3: Income and Savings - Personal income experienced its largest decline since 2021 due to reduced government transfer payments, while wages increased by 0.4% for the second consecutive month [3] - The savings rate dropped to 4.5%, indicating that consumers may still have sufficient funds to continue spending despite the decline in income [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise in June, July, and August due to tariff impacts on consumer prices [6] - If inflation remains subdued, Fed officials may support interest rate cuts during the next policy meeting scheduled for July 29-30 [6] - Market predictions show a 77.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, with a 22.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [7]

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator, the April core PCE price index, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, matching expectations and slowing from a revised previous value of 2.7%, marking the smallest increase in over four years [2] - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year in April, falling short of the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3% [3] - Personal spending showed a significant slowdown, with real personal spending growing only 0.1% month-on-month in April, down from a 0.7% increase in March [4] Group 2 - Despite the slowdown in consumer spending, personal income remained strong, increasing by 0.8% month-on-month, the largest increase since January 2024, exceeding the expected 0.3% [6] - The savings rate rebounded strongly to 4.9%, the highest level since April 2024, due to income performance outpacing spending [11] - The "super core inflation indicator," which excludes housing and energy costs, also fell to its lowest level in four years, with a notable decrease in service costs, particularly in financial services and insurance [5] Group 3 - The consumer spending data indicates growing anxiety among American consumers regarding the economic outlook, with confidence in personal financial prospects dropping to historical lows [5] - The trade policy fluctuations have increased market uncertainty, with economists closely monitoring the extent to which higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [9] - Retailers, including Walmart and Macy's, have indicated that consumers will soon see price increases due to the impact of tariffs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin indicates that consumers have begun to expect rising inflation, which is affecting market sentiment; however, there is currently no evidence that this has led to a decrease in consumer spending [1] Group 1 - Consumers' expectations of rising inflation are influencing market sentiment [1] - There is no current evidence suggesting that inflation expectations have resulted in reduced consumer spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, emphasizes that individuals are exercising patience in their investment decisions due to policy uncertainty [1] Group 1 - There is no evidence indicating that declining sentiment is affecting consumer spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Toyoaki Nakamura, suggests that rushing to raise interest rates may negatively impact consumer spending, indicating that maintaining policy stability is currently appropriate [1] Group 1 - The urgency to increase interest rates could lead to a decline in consumer expenditure [1] - Maintaining a stable policy is deemed suitable at this time [1]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines last week, with the Dow Jones down 0.16%, the S&P 500 down 0.47%, and the Nasdaq down 0.27% [2][3]. Economic Indicators - This week, the U.S. will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which will provide insights into the latest inflation trends [4]. - The April retail sales data will also be published, indicating whether consumer spending remains robust [5]. Federal Reserve Actions - On May 8, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to discuss monetary policy assessments on May 15, coinciding with the release of retail sales data [5]. Corporate Earnings - The earnings reports for the first quarter are ongoing, with retail giant Walmart set to release its financial results before the market opens on Thursday [5]. - Chinese concept stocks, including Alibaba, are also expected to announce their latest performance this week [5].