2025年全年，CPI与上年持平，PPI下降2.6%，工业生产者购进价格指数下降3.0%。 业内专家认为，2025年，在提振消费专项行动深入实施、全国统一大市场建设纵深推进、企业竞争秩序 逐步优化、新动能快速成长等因素带动下，物价运行呈现低位温和回升态势。2026年，宏观政策将更加 积极有为，为经济增长和物价合理回升提供更好的政策环境。 食品和工业消费品价格拉动CPI同比涨幅回升至年内高位 "2025年12月，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加。"国家统计局城市 司首席统计师董莉娟表示。 国家统计局日前发布的最新数据显示，2025年12月居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.8%，环比上涨 0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨 0.2%，同比下降1.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.3个百分点。 值得关注的是，当月核心CPI温和回升，环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%；同比上涨1.2%，已连续4 个月保持在1%以上。"这主要是受促消费政策效应显现，家电、汽车价格同比改善，以及国际金价大幅 上涨支撑。"东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18810112501） 报告摘要 回顾2025物价之整体形势：低位筑底 1、2025年12月物价继续改善。 CPI同比从0.7%升至0.8%，预期0.75%；核心CPI同比高位持平于1.2%；PPI 同比从-2.2%收窄至-1.9%，预期-2%。 2、季度来看，2025年CPI同比前低后高，核心CPI同比逐季上行，PPI同比V形走势。 2025年4季度，CPI 食品、核心CPI和PPI的同比均为年内高点，预计4季度GDP平减指数约-0.4%，1-3季度分别 为-0.8%、-1.2%、-1%。 3、年度来看，结合后续展望，2025年物价或是低位筑底 。CPI同比0%，小幅低于2023-24年的0.2%。核心 CPI同比0.8%，高于2024年的0.5%。PPI同比-2.6%，低于2024年的-2.2%。GDP平减指数约-0.9%，2024年 为-0.7%。 回顾2025物价之CPI：从普遍性走弱到结构性好转 1、对CPI项目进行重新分组（参见图3） ，分为食品（权重约19%）、竞争性领域商品（约26%）、竞争性 领 ...

展望2026年物价走势，张林表示，物价持续改善仍需要在加大消费能力支持、反低价竞争、改善 微观主体信心等领域多措并举，来推动形成供给、需求和价格的持续正向循环。 从更长时间维度看，2020年，畜肉类价格创下了38.4%的同比涨幅，此后五年的同比涨幅均为负 值。其中，猪肉价格波动最明显。2020年，猪肉价格同比上涨49.7%，此后五年的涨幅分别 为-30.3%、-6.8%、-13.6%、7.7%、-6.1%。 其次，酒类价格经历了连续多年的同比正增长后，2024、2025年均为同比负增长。上一次出现酒 类价格同比负增长还是在2015年。市场层面，2025年，多家酒企宣布下调白酒产品批发价。 整体来看，2025年CPI低位运行。国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，年内 CPI走势反映出国内供大于求的总量失衡态势比较明显，市场主导的需求收缩仍在进一步发展。从 投资、消费等数据来看，中国经济总体仍处在"需求收缩导致供给被迫瘦身、经济增速下降反过来 加剧需求收缩"的循环中。 值得注意的是，2025年9—12月，CPI同比涨幅呈现不断扩大的趋势。2025年12月10日至11日 举行的中央经济工作会议提出，" ...

2026.01. 09 本文字数：1575，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 随着扩内需促消费政策措施持续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI同比涨幅回升，核心 CPI涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。 国家统计局1月9日发布的数据显示，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣 除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。 来源：国家统计局 受国际大宗商品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者 出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 食品价格拉动CPI 2025年12月CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟 分析，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。 12月份，食品价格同比上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加 约0.17个百分点。食品中，鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比 上月合计增加约0.16个百分点。 关于今年物价走势，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，随着扩内需等政策措施发力 ...

日子过得好不好，物价最有发言权。 临近年底，不少家庭开始盘算：2026年物价会涨还是跌？菜价、油价会不会反弹？手里的钱该怎么管，才能不被通胀"啃"掉？其实答案藏在最新的经济数据 里，3个关键信号已清晰显现，看懂了就能从容应对。 先给大家吃颗定心丸：专家普遍判断，2026年物价不会大幅暴涨，整体会呈现"低位温和回升"态势。民生银行首席经济学家温彬预测，明年CPI同比大概上 涨0.8%左右；也有专家更乐观，认为不排除升至2.0%的可能，但都属于合理区间。 信号一：CPI同比涨幅扩大，核心消费在回暖 今年推进的"反内卷"政策，对物价稳定发挥了关键作用。重点行业产能治理加快，市场竞争秩序更规范，像新能源车、光伏设备等行业的低价无序竞争得到 遏制，价格降幅明显收窄。 随着政策持续深入，明年相关行业价格会更趋合理。同时，扩内需、促消费政策会接续发力，消费潜力释放会进一步夯实物价回升的基础，不会出现通缩或 通胀失控的情况。 知道了走势，普通家庭该怎么应对？记住这3点就够了。 第一，日常采购：理性囤货，避开季节性波动 鲜菜、鲜果价格容易受天气影响，季节性波动大。可以根据家庭需求，适当储备耐储存的蔬菜、水果，但别盲目囤积。猪肉 ...

物价走势是观察经济运行的重要窗口。国家统计局最新发布的价格数据显示，11月份，居民消费价格指 数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比10月份扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高；扣除食品和能源 价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上 涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨……温和上扬的价格曲线，折射出供需两端的同步改善，彰显经济韧性与潜 力。 但也要认识到，当前外部不确定性因素依然较多，国内有效需求不足仍是主要矛盾，价格总体仍在低位 运行。因此，下一步，要促进供给和需求良性互动，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，优化市场竞争环 境，推进重点行业产能治理，改善供求关系，促进价格水平合理回升。 在笔者看来，物价回暖并非偶然，而是政策组合拳精准有力、新动能不断发展壮大等多维度突破换来 的"水到渠成"。 （文章来源：证券日报） 具体来看，今年以来，提振消费专项行动持续显效，消费需求焕新提升，"悦己型""健康型"需求持续增 长，带动工艺美术、运动球类、营养食品等细分工业品价格稳步抬升，11月份前述三类工业品价格分别 同比上涨20.6%、4.3%、1.1%。此外，综合 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article presents a dual perspective on the investment landscape for 2026, focusing on both financial conditions ("who holds the deposits") and economic realities ("spring water flows to the midstream") [3][4][5][6] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for awakening the investment value of the Chinese stock market, breaking the stereotype of short-lived bull markets [6][8] Economic and Policy Outlook for 2026 - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, slightly higher than the estimated 4% for 2025 [15] - Fixed asset investment is expected to remain low, between 0% and 1%, with a neutral expectation of around 1% [16] - Consumption is anticipated to align with nominal GDP growth, while exports are expected to show resilience with a growth rate of around 5% [16][18] - The fiscal budget expenditure growth rate is likely to be set at around 5%, with an increase in government debt expected [17][18] Price Trends for 2026 - CPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, but its investment significance may be limited [19][20] - PPI year-on-year growth is anticipated to show an upward trend, with the potential for a positive turnaround depending on economic conditions in the first half of 2026 [21][22] - Housing prices remain uncertain, with a focus on the relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields as a potential indicator for price stabilization [23][24][27] Midstream Economic Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to outperform in the next 3-6 months, with notable changes in profit margins for midstream companies, particularly in overseas markets [30][34] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream sector are shifting, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition benefiting this segment [35][36] - The midstream sector is seen as having strong potential due to its differentiation from upstream and downstream sectors, which are currently facing challenges [39][40] Financial Conditions and Deposit Distribution - The distribution of deposits will significantly influence market valuations and investment styles in 2026 [47][48] - M2 growth is expected to decline, impacting stock market valuations and the relative performance of different market segments [48][49] - The transfer of deposits from residents to enterprises or non-bank financial institutions will be crucial for driving economic activity and stock market engagement [52][53][60] Investment Insights and Conclusions - The article emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the stock market, with a focus on safety margins and profit improvements [50][51] - The potential for a bull market in stocks is acknowledged, but the pace of growth may slow compared to previous years [87] - The article suggests that the investment landscape will require careful monitoring of economic indicators and policy developments to identify key turning points [51][88]

来源：一瑜中的 报告目录 | 一、看短期:中游景气度或更胜一筹 | | --- | | (一)关注中游:已出现若干"新"变化 . | | (二)思考中游:宏观景气度或更胜一筹 . | | 1、景气观察 1: 静态看,潜力与表现均更优 …………………………………………………………………… 16 | | 2、景气观察 2:动态看,机电出口或高增长 | | (三)分析中游:微观 ROE 或继续回升 . | | 1、思考框架:ROE 的核心在哪? | | 2、思考焦点:供需两侧的预测!……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19 | | 二、看中期: 聚焦存款分布与物价走势 . | | (一)聚焦存款:花落谁家?谈三部门存款交互框架 | | 1、2025 存款在哪?重视两个交互 . | | 2、2026 存款去哪?提示三个变化 . | | (二)聚焦物价:何时转正?谈三物价趋势判断框架 | | 1、CPI:趋势确定,时点已至 | | 2、PPI:趋势确定,时点难定 | | 3、房价:或低位震荡,仍待加力 | | 三、看长期:转型之路的合理"靠 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of "stocks and bonds sharing the same origin" is increasing, and they are likely to be in sync with the nominal growth rate [22][34]. - The focus of the "same origin" lies in price elasticity and the impact of price changes on the stock and bond markets, with policy and market attention centered on demand - led non - food prices [38][47]. - The "anti - involution" policy is an important arrangement in the future, with clear long - term and short - term goals and implementation paths [60][61]. Summary by Directory "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a slight "seesaw" pattern between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds was around 0.2%, and the stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8]. - The reason for the "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have different driving factors. In 2025, the bond market's main line was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including policy and economic expectations [9][11][12]. Increasing Probability of "Stock - Bond Homology" - A stock bull market requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to be in a period where EPS needs to take over. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22]. - In the past year or so, the main factor determining the rise and fall of long - term interest rates has been the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32]. - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamentals, the probability of stock - bond homology increases, and they are homologous to the nominal growth rate [34]. Focus of "Homology" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which are crucial for the stock market, and whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38]. - Policy and the market pay more attention to demand - led prices, especially non - food prices or core CPI. When food and non - food prices move in the same direction, the situation is clear; when they move in opposite directions, in - depth structural analysis is needed [47]. - Under neutral assumptions, there is a chance to get out of deflation, but the risk lies in whether the month - on - month can reach the neutral level of recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 situation [50][51]. - The "anti - involution" policy is very important. In the short term, the implementation path is still under observation, while in the long term, the goals and implementation paths are clear. International experiences from the US and Japan can be used for reference, and in the short term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins [60][61][66].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, marking the highest value since February of this year, with a seasonal level higher than the previous two years [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [1][8] - Gold prices significantly impacted both CPI and PPI, with domestic gold futures prices increasing by 52.8% year-on-year, a substantial rise of 9.5 percentage points compared to September [2][12] Group 2: Food Prices and Core CPI - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI by approximately 0.54 percentage points [2][16] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, the highest since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [2][9] - The increase in core CPI was primarily driven by gold prices, with other goods and services related to gold also showing a significant year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2][12] Group 3: PPI and Industry Performance - The PPI for October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with notable performance in the non-ferrous industry, where prices increased by 5.3% and 2.4% for mining and metal processing, respectively [3][21] - The narrowing decline in PPI was attributed to ongoing capacity management and increased demand for coal mining and washing, with a reduction in the decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][21] - Life goods PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][21] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The rise in prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the increase in gold prices and weather-related impacts on vegetable prices, leading to an unexpected overall price increase [4][23] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a recommendation for a barbell strategy to manage risks while benefiting from potential interest rate declines [4][25] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [4][25]