例如，利尔化学（002258）股份有限公司公告显示，受益于公司部分产品销量和价格同比上涨以及降本 增效，公司业绩出现同比上涨。 "行业供需格局正在发生深刻变革。从需求侧看，随着全球经济逐步回暖，下游行业需求呈现恢复性增 长；从供给侧来看，前期产能扩张有限等因素导致部分企业减产，共同推动了产品价格攀升。"深圳市 前海排排网基金销售有限责任公司研究员隋东告诉《证券日报》记者，"但产品价格走势仍存在较大不 确定性，虽然短期供需格局改善支撑价格，但若新增产能释放超预期或需求复苏乏力，价格上涨动能或 将减弱。此外，原材料价格波动、环保政策调整等外部因素也将对行业产生重要影响。" 接受《证券日报》记者采访的专家认为，虽然化工行业面临的挑战较多，但此轮产品价格上涨给企业带 来了盈利的修复，如果抓住机遇，可以借机为长期发展带来新动能。 "价格上涨带来的盈利增加为企业转型提供了资金保障，企业可借此进行技术创新、拓展新业务领域， 加快向绿色、环保、高端化方向转型。此外，价格上涨还会吸引更多资源和资本涌入行业，加速整合， 推动行业整体向更高水平发展。从长远角度来看，有利于行业的转型和可持续发展。"珠海黑崎资本投 资管理合伙企业首席 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the external uncertainty from tariffs is expected to gradually spread, with the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" 90-day deadline approaching, suggesting that most economies may struggle to resolve tariff issues within this timeframe [4][13][15] - The domestic policy is anticipated to remain proactive yet restrained, with the need to maintain sufficient policy space to address potential extreme risk scenarios while avoiding excessive short-term stimulus that could disrupt long-term goals [30][32][38] Group 2 - The report highlights that the improvement in domestic demand is a key driver for economic and corporate profit recovery, with expectations that consumer confidence will continue to rise due to the rebound in residents' income and wealth effects [77][78][83] - The real estate sector is showing signs of gradual recovery, with new home sales and land transaction data improving, indicating a potential positive impact on the overall economy [83][88][91] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the capital market's liquidity remains high, with a significant number of stocks experiencing substantial gains, which has fostered a strong investment sentiment among individual investors [116][122][134] - The importance of the equity market is underscored by ongoing policy support aimed at enhancing residents' property income and maintaining market stability [136]

中信建投（601066）研报称，短期来看，生鲜乳价格仍面临下降压力，进入夏季需求淡季以及产奶热应 激减产，且淘牛价格有所回升，龙头牧业亦带头优化牛群存栏及结构，下游加大乳品深加工，三季度奶 源供需有望达到平衡。展望25年，原奶价格企稳后，有望带来乳企盈利端的修复。从需求端来看，乳制 品的需求仍表现出低温好于常温的趋势，部分乳业有可能持续推进结构优化，各地生育补贴政策落地也 有一定预期。渠道层面，乳企加大会员商超、即时零售等新零售渠道布局。从盈利端，头部企业今年费 率目标也希望稳中有降，预计盈利能力有望同比提升。 ...

截至2025年7月3日 13:48，中证A500指数(000510)上涨0.60%，成分股蓝思科技(300433)上涨12.14%，华 海药业(600521)、长春高新(000661)10cm涨停，东山精密(002384)上涨9.29%，鹏鼎控股(002938)上涨 8.86%。中证A500ETF龙头(563800)上涨0.62%。 流动性方面，中证A500ETF龙头盘中换手4.9%，成交8.54亿元。拉长时间看，截至7月2日，中证 A500ETF龙头近1年日均成交20.29亿元。规模方面，中证A500ETF龙头最新规模达173.92亿元。 中证A500ETF龙头紧密跟踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只 证券作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。据了解，中证A500指数行业 分布均衡，传统行业和新兴行业各占一半，同时增加医药、新能源、计算机等新兴行业权重，实现了价 值与成长均衡，是布局A股市场的优质工具。 有业内人士表示，中证A500指数成分股囊括了各个行业的龙头公司，代表着中国经济体系中具竞争力 和稳定性的力量。尤其是在上市公司并购重组加速推 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the agricultural chemical industry, highlighting the recovery potential in the pesticide market due to rising glyphosate prices [1][8] - Glyphosate prices have shown a significant recovery, with the raw material price reaching 24,800 CNY per ton as of July 1, 2025, an increase of 1,800 CNY per ton since early April [6][8] Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index over various time frames, with a 1-month performance of 5.0%, 3-month performance of 3.2%, and a 12-month performance of 16.4% compared to the CSI 300's 2.7%, 1.5%, and 13.6% respectively [4] Investment Highlights - The glyphosate industry is experiencing inventory depletion and demand recovery, leading to a price rebound from its bottom. As of June 27, 2025, glyphosate industry inventory was 40,000 tons, down 43,000 tons since early April [6] - The global largest glyphosate producer, Bayer, faces potential bankruptcy due to ongoing lawsuits related to its glyphosate product "Roundup," which could benefit domestic competitors in the glyphosate market [7] Company Focus - Key companies in the glyphosate sector include: - Jiangshan Chemical, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons/year [9] - Xingfa Group, the leading domestic glyphosate producer with a capacity of 230,000 tons/year [9] - Xin'an Chemical, with a capacity of 80,000 tons/year [10] - Yangnong Chemical, a major player with a capacity of 30,000 tons/year [10] - Guoxin Co., with a capacity of 20,000 tons/year [10] - Hebang Bio, with a capacity of 50,000 tons/year [10] - Lier Chemical, with a capacity of 18,500 tons/year [10] - Limin Co., with a capacity of 5,000 tons of glyphosate and 2,000 tons of refined glyphosate [10] Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for key companies, indicating potential growth in profitability: - Jiangshan Chemical: EPS of 1.10 CNY in 2025E [11] - Xingfa Group: EPS of 1.85 CNY in 2025E [11] - Yangnong Chemical: EPS of 3.44 CNY in 2025E [11] - Guoxin Co.: EPS of 1.12 CNY in 2025E [11] - Lier Chemical: EPS of 0.53 CNY in 2025E [11] - Limin Co.: EPS of 1.05 CNY in 2025E [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed companies have shown positive performance in their half-year reports, with a significant proportion of companies expecting profit growth, driven by various factors including international market expansion and cost reduction measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Out of 26 companies that announced their performance forecasts, approximately 77% are expected to report positive results, with 9 companies anticipating "slight growth," 6 "increased growth," 4 "continued profit," 1 "turning profitable," and 1 "slight decrease" [2][3]. - Companies such as Guangda Special Materials and Shengnuo Bio are expected to see net profit increases exceeding 100% [2][5]. - The industries with the highest concentration of companies expecting positive results include pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and hardware equipment [2][9]. Group 2: Individual Company Highlights - Guangda Special Materials forecasts a net profit of approximately 200 million yuan, representing a growth of 367.51% [4][5]. - Shengnuo Bio anticipates a net profit between 77.03 million and 94.14 million yuan, with a growth rate of 253.54% to 332.10% [4][5]. - Tai Ling Micro expects a net profit of about 99 million yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 267% [4][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The overall net profit growth of A-share listed companies is expected to continue improving, driven by macroeconomic policies and industry restructuring [8][9]. - Analysts predict that sectors such as consumer services, information technology, and midstream manufacturing will see relatively high profit growth in 2025 [8][9]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with many institutions recommending an overweight position in the Chinese stock market, anticipating a bull market in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9].

具体来看： 2025年已过半，A股上市公司半年报成绩轮廓渐显。 Wind统计数据显示，截至7月1日收盘，累计26家公司预告了半年度业绩。 1.9家预计"略增"，6家预计"预增"，4家预计"续盈"，1家预计"扭亏"，预喜公司占比约77%； 2.多数预告利润增长的企业在公告中指出，业绩提升主要得益于国际市场的开拓、毛利率水平的提高、产品结构的优化以及降本增效举措的 推进等因素； 3.从个股来看，广大特材、圣诺生物等公司预计归母净利润最大增幅超过100%； 4.从预喜公司行业分布来看，主要集中在医药生物、半导体、硬件设备等行业。 多家公司率先预喜 从业绩预告类型来看，26家公司中，除了前述20家公司预喜外，还有1家预计"首亏"，1家预计"略减"；4家"不确定"。 根据以往经验来看，中报业绩超预期的行业、个股更容易获得资金追捧；业绩高增长、行业高景气度板块有望成为中报行情一个主线；低估且业绩超预期滞 涨龙头弹性更大。 | 证券简称 | 预告类型 | 预告内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | 广大特材 | 预增 | 净利润:约2亿元~2亿元,增长367.51%~367.51% | | 圣诺生物 | 预增 ...

首次覆盖运达股份，给予"增持"评级，目标价13.05 元（25 年15x PE）。 公司为国内风电整机龙头，充分受益于国内陆风量价齐升，叠加海外及海上业务进入收获期，预计25- 27 年归母净利CAGR 为42%。主要系：1）国内陆风：行业量价齐升可期，公司多途径降本，驱动盈利 能力提升。2）国内海风：公司深耕浙江市场，通过产业布局辽宁市场，实现电站资源与风机订单突 破。3）海外陆风：公司加速海外布局，新增订单实现翻倍增长。 行业：国内外风电装机高景气，产业链盈利修复可期1）国内：央国企招标规则优化驱动国内风机价格 修复，国电投25 年第二批陆风集采中标均价为2211 元/kw（含塔筒），较24 年第二批价格上升12%。 24 年国内陆风招标量同比+97%，支撑25 年陆风装机高景气，叠加江苏、广东等重点海风项目陆续开 工，我们预计25 年陆/海风新增装机100/12GW，同比+23%/+114%。2）海外：海外各国加大政策支持 力度，驱动风电需求增长，根据GWEC 预测，2025-2030 年海外风电新增装机CAGR 为16.7%；海外风 机龙头成本较高，主动退出亚非拉市场，国内企业或实现订单放量。 公司： ...

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 看好新技术与盈利修复主线 华泰研究 国内以旧换新政策+新车型发布+汽车降价+商用车电动化提速，我们预计 25 年新能源车销量同比+22%。欧洲市场，碳排放考核+中欧电动车价格谈判或 促进电动化率提升，我们预计 25 年销量同比+22%。综上，我们预计全球 25 年动力电池装机量增速达 25%。各环节竞争格局渐进式优化，多数环节 价格企稳，盈利能力基本触底，我们看好盈利能力稳中有升的电池、结构件 和铁锂新技术龙头。新技术产业化正在加速破局中，看好技术迭代带来的产 业链增量需求，建议关注固态电池等方向。我们推荐宁德时代、亿纬锂能、 富临精工、科达利。 风电：国内外需求高景气，看好海风+出海链 国内市场，风电项目核准+竞配+招标旺盛驱动未来需求高景气，主要海风项 目陆续开工，有望支撑装机高增。我们预计 25 年国内陆/海风新增装机 100/12GW，同比+23%/+114%。海外各国加大政策支持力度，驱动风电需 求增长，根据 GWEC 预测，25-30 年海外风电新增装机 CAGR 为 16.7%。 我们看好海风与海外订单及出货起量，建议关注风机、管桩、海缆环节：1） 风机：国内价格 ...

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证钢铁ETF联接C（008190），国泰中证钢铁ETF联接A （008189）。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩 的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 钢铁ETF（515210）昨日净流入超5000万元，供需改善带动盈利修复预期。 光大证券指出，2025年2月工信部修订的《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》对钢铁企业实施两级评 价，在"供给侧更好适应需求变化"政策目标下，钢铁板块盈利有望修复至历史均值水平，PB估值也将 随之修复。当前热轧与螺纹钢价差处于同期低位（110元/吨），冷热轧价差环比扩大80元/吨至420元/ 吨，小螺纹（地产用）与大螺纹（基建用）价差达240元/吨。行业基本面显示，螺纹钢价格自8个月低 位反弹1.59%，全国钢铁PMI新订单指数环比回升9.9个百分点至51%，但钢铁综合毛利环比微降0.65% 至199元/吨。普钢板块PB ...