纸品提价落地，板块盈利修复可期 【2026.2.23-2026.3.1】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.3.3 证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 造纸行情走势图 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 纸品价格稳中有升，提价计划落地：本周纸品价格呈现上行态 势，箱板纸、瓦楞纸均价分别上涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸、白板纸 价格保持平稳。规模纸厂发布白板纸涨价函，叠加节后企业复 工复产推进，需求端逐步回暖，龙头此前提价计划落地后，后 续价格上行概率较高，行业盈利修复逻辑持续强化。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回落价格上涨，成本支撑增强：纸浆期货库存降至 15.30 万吨（周减 1601 吨），期货收盘价上涨 28 元/吨；国内 漂针浆、漂阔浆 ...

供给端边际改善叠加"反内卷"政策预期升温，钢铁ETF（515210）盘中涨超5.7%。 今日钢铁板块整体表现活跃，钢铁ETF（515210）盘中上涨，涨幅一度超过5.7%，成交金额同步放大。 从近期走势看，该ETF自去年四季度低位企稳以来震荡抬升，1月中旬以来沿5日与20日均线展开一轮趋 势性反弹，其间虽经历短线回踩，但整体结构未遭破坏。结合盘口与分时走势看，盘中买盘积极，资金 承接意愿增强，板块在经历前期震荡消化后，重新获得市场关注。 从更长周期观察，钢铁ETF自去年三季度以来伴随行业估值修复与盈利改善预期走出一轮趋势性行情， 期间指数估值从极度低估修复至中等偏低区间。尽管春节前后受需求淡季与库存回升影响出现阶段性震 荡，但整体中枢较此前明显抬升。当前板块更多呈现出趋势中的整固与再平衡，而非基本面逻辑的反 转。 供给端：铁水产量回升，"反内卷"预期强化压产逻辑 因此，当前库存回升更多是季节性因素，若3~4月旺季需求兑现，库存拐点有望提前出现。库存周期一 旦确认向下，钢价与利润修复的弹性将明显增强。 根据数据显示，节前一周247家钢厂高炉产能利用率回升至86.4%，环比提升0.7个百分点，日均铁水产 量增至2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mohawk Industries (MHK.US) has experienced significant stock price fluctuations in early January 2026, reflecting market concerns over short-term liquidity [1] Group 1: Stock Price Movements - On January 8, 2026, the stock price surged by 5.07% to $112.29, with increased trading volume [1] - The following day, January 9, the stock continued to rise by 3.9% to $118.72, with a trading volume of $165 million, a 34.11% increase from the previous day [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The Q3 2025 financial report indicated a revenue decline of 1.39% year-over-year and a net profit decrease of 22.77% [2] - The company has provided adjusted earnings per share guidance for Q4 2025 in the range of $1.90 to $2.00, with market expectations focused on comparing actual results to these projections [2] Group 3: Industry Policy and Environment - The outlook for the building materials industry in 2026 suggests a potential recovery in profitability for traditional building materials companies, influenced by demand recovery and supply discipline [3] - As a leading flooring manufacturer, Mohawk's overseas performance, particularly in Europe and Latin America, should be evaluated in the context of industry dynamics [3] Group 4: Analyst Opinions - Recent analyst consensus rating is "moderate buy," but some institutions have indicated the need to monitor the progress of profit recovery [4] - Company insiders have engaged in share reduction activities in the second half of 2025, prompting investors to watch for future announcements regarding control or strategic adjustments [4]

来源：经济观察网 造纸行业面临"供给宽松、需求弱复苏"局面，成品纸价格承压，企业盈利空间受挤压。尽管2026年上半 年行业计划净削减产能35万吨，但克利尔沃特纸业预计全年营收区间14.5亿–15.5亿美元，同比可能继续 收缩，目标产能利用率仅中高80%水平，低于行业健康线。 机构观点 2026年2月，3家机构中仅67%给予买入或增持评级，目标均价23.67美元（较当前股价存在空间），但 机构预测其2025年第四季度营收同比下滑17.89%，每股收益持续为负。市场对其短期盈利修复信心不 足。 行业政策现状 美元走弱可能抑制纸浆进口（年进口量超70万吨），加剧本土竞争；同时，海外木浆价格波动及能源成 本高企进一步压缩利润。公司推迟原定5000万美元的CUK产能转换项目，战略收缩亦影响市场预期。 经济观察网 克利尔沃特纸业（CLW.N）近期股价持续下跌主要受基本面疲软、行业环境承压及市场情 绪等多重因素影响。 股票近期走势 截至2026年2月17日，该股收盘价16.56美元，单日下跌5.86%，近5日累计跌幅6.70%，近20日跌幅达 17.57%。股价已跌破关键均线支撑，成交额萎缩至302万美元（量比0.77）， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Rand Group's stock price has shown significant volatility recently, with strong performance in its Q3 report, attracting institutional attention regarding its valuation and future profitability [1][2] Group 2 - Rand Group's stock price increased by 6.45% over a recent 7-day period, with a notable single-day increase of 5.46% on February 10, closing at 27.82 yuan [1] - The company reported a net profit of 1.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.26%, with Q3 net profit reaching 851.67 million yuan, a staggering increase of 130.20% [2] - The current PE (TTM) ratio for Rand Group is 24.0 times, which is at the median level within the home appliance components industry, with a projected net profit of 2.23 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.54% [1][2] - The net profit margin for Q3 has improved to 19.48%, indicating effective cost control and product premium as key drivers of profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has not disclosed specific future event plans, but recent developments may impact the market, including stock performance and upcoming financial reports [1] Financial Performance - The latest financial report for Q3 2025 showed a revenue increase of 7.8% year-on-year to $214 million, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 90.4% due to foreign exchange losses [1] - The market will focus on the recovery of income and profit, with potential improvements if the impact of exchange rates diminishes or operational efficiency continues to improve, as indicated by a 240.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in operating profit [1] Business Developments - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company opened 10 new Haidilao restaurants, maintaining a total of 126 locations, while closing one and converting another to a second brand restaurant [2] - The company plans to expand into New York, Los Angeles, and European markets, with international growth potentially serving as a long-term catalyst following its planned NASDAQ listing in 2024 [2] Institutional Perspectives - In November 2025, an institutional report maintained an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 18.40, up from a current price of HKD 14.22, citing brand strength and improved operational efficiency as drivers for profit enhancement [3] Market Dynamics - Historical trading data indicates that the stock's daily turnover rate is often below 0.2%, leading to low trading volumes that can amplify price volatility [4]

美国就业数据"注水"难提振市场信心 来源：芝麻AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，芝麻AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 中国银河证券杨超：2026年A股行情围绕两大主线展开 临近春节，A股市场有明显避险与结构分化特征，中国银河证券杨超表示市场呈震荡调整格局，资金偏 好向高股息等防御板块集中。他预计2026年A股会围绕科技创新与反内卷下的盈利修复两大主线展开， 企业出海与内需消费是重要辅助。春节前后有"日历效应"，投资者要权衡"持股过节"和"持币落袋"策 略。详情>> 仅12天！A股中国神华千亿级收购，火速获批 2月12日，中国神华作价1335.98亿元收购控股股东旗下12家核心企业股权获证监会注册批复，这是A股 首单适用并购重组简易审核程序且规模最大的发行股份购买资产类项目。重组完成后，中国神华业务体 量增大，能解决业务重叠，增强盈利能力和抗风险能力，推动煤炭产业绿色化、智能化转型。详情>> 今晚，突发公告！多只大牛股，紧急提示风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 9.64 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 350 million yuan for Q4 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.5% and a year-on-year increase of 32.5% [1] - The estimated non-recurring net profit for Q4 2025 is 370 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - The company expects to ship over 80,000 tons of electrolyte in Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, and over 280,000 tons for the entire year, a 45% increase [1] Group 2: Profitability and Market Dynamics - The electrolyte segment is projected to contribute approximately 100 million yuan in profit for Q4, with a unit profit recovery to 1,200 yuan per ton, primarily driven by price increases in hexafluorophosphate and VC [1] - The company anticipates that the fluorochemical segment will generate around 200 million yuan in profit for Q4 2025, with a slight increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The semiconductor cooling liquid product is expected to complete customer certification in 2026, leading to volume growth, while the fluorochemical segment is projected to contribute 1 billion yuan in profit, indicating a recovery in growth [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with a target price of 79.8 yuan, based on significant price increases for hexafluorophosphate and VC, and expected contributions from new products in the fluorochemical business [2] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.1 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.98 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17%, 118%, and 25% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. has shown a fluctuating trend over the past week, with a range of -0.98% and a volatility of 3.93% [1] Company Summary - The latest stock price is 4.03 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%, underperforming the steel sector but slightly outperforming the broader market [1] - Institutional views on Maanshan Iron & Steel's medium to long-term fundamentals are moderately optimistic, with expectations of a turnaround in net profit by 2025 and a projected year-on-year growth rate of 1244.93% in 2026, driven by supply-side adjustments and demand improvements [2] - The current comprehensive target price set by institutions is 3.93 yuan, indicating limited upside potential from the latest price, and the fund holding ratio is only 0.11% [2] Industry Summary - Recent policies in the steel industry have released positive signals, with the National Development and Reform Commission indicating plans to formulate a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, which may boost steel demand in the medium to long term [3] - Industry data shows a 5.6% month-on-month increase in social steel inventory and a 5.1% decrease in apparent consumption, indicating ongoing short-term supply and demand pressures [3] - Steel pipe companies are expected to benefit from energy investments despite the current supply-demand challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market showed a strong performance in 2025, with the Wande Micro Index rising by 70.70% and the Wande All A Index increasing by 27.65%, indicating a favorable environment for small-cap stocks due to their high elasticity and low institutional holdings [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the market experienced a pattern of rising and then retreating, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing the 4000-point mark, reflecting a decline in risk appetite [2] - The aerospace equipment sector saw a significant increase of 40% in Q4, while the metals sector remained active due to global inflation expectations and demand recovery [2] - Consumer sectors, particularly white goods and kitchen appliances, showed a temporary rebound due to policy stimuli, while high-dividend assets like banks and coal faced continuous corrections [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on low-valuation, high-growth small-cap stocks, utilizing quantitative models for stock selection [4] - The manager emphasizes capturing opportunities in small-cap stocks while being cautious of potential risks, dynamically adjusting portfolios based on performance data [4] - The outlook remains optimistic as economic recovery and market liquidity are expected to support future market growth, with a focus on structural opportunities in technology and upstream resources [3][4]