社融方面，我们判断截至年底的10月、11月、12月，其增速将呈逐步回落态势，原因较为简单：去年9月24日一系列重磅政策出台后，财政部门增发了2万 亿元地方政府再融资债，且均在四季度集中发行；而今年并无如此大规模的债务发行，仅财政部安排了5000亿元地方债发行，规模较去年的2万亿元明显 偏低，因此今年四季度社融增速将继续回落。 再看美国劳动力市场：自10月1日起，美国处于政府停摆状态，官方经济数据暂未发布。通常我们通过美国非农报告观察劳动力市场，但目前该数据无法 获取，只能参考民间统计报告，例如ADP小非农数据。最新公布的10月份ADP数据显示，单月新增就业回升至4万余人，但相较于此前10万人以上的均衡 新增规模，美国劳动力市场仍处于偏弱状态。通胀偏稳、劳动力市场走弱的背景，为货币政策宽松创造了条件，我们总体认为美联储会在12月份实施利率 下调。不过需注意，在上一次议息会议结束后，鲍威尔发表了一系列偏鹰派言论，他提到美联储内部委员观点存在分歧，市场随之下调了对12月份降息的 预期定价。但我们仍坚持认为，在当前通胀偏稳、劳动力市场走弱的形势下，降息仍是最合理的政策选择；尤其是若本周美国政府能恢复正常运作，后续 将 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The Bank of Thailand expects the "Khon La Khrueng Plus" co-payment scheme to boost GDP growth in Q4 of this year, projecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5% after a contraction in the previous quarter [1] - The central bank anticipates a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 1.3% in Q4, down from 1.5% in Q3, primarily supported by government stimulus measures aimed at encouraging shared healthcare costs and boosting domestic tourism [1] Sector Performance - The economic recovery is expected to be bolstered by an expansion in exports, driven by companies ramping up production and previously closed factories resuming operations [1] - Temporary production halts in various sectors, including oil, automotive, and alcoholic beverages, contributed to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in Q3 [1] Currency and Tourism - The Bank of Thailand has revised down its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively, due to domestic and international economic challenges [2] - Despite a strong Thai baht, which appreciated by 7.8% earlier this year, its recent depreciation of 4.4% against the US dollar has negatively impacted Thailand's export and tourism competitiveness [2] - The central bank projects an increase in foreign tourist arrivals in Q4, estimating a total of 33 million foreign visitors for the year, with expectations to rise to 35.5 million by 2026 [2] Chinese Tourist Recovery - Following a significant decline of 55% in April, the number of Chinese tourists is showing signs of recovery, with a projected reduction in decline to 28.9% this month [3] - The central bank forecasts that the number of Chinese tourists will reach 4.4 million by 2025 and increase to 6.6 million by 2026 [3]

【导读】日经 225 指数大涨，再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的情况及最新资讯。 日经 225 指数创历史新高 消息面上，日本执政党自民党与日本维新会已就组建联合政府基本达成一致。新当选的自民 党领袖高市早苗可能成为日本首位女首相，为出台经济刺激措施铺平道路。 澳大利亚国民银行的 Taylor Nugent 评论称，在贸易关系和美国地区性银行出现更多积极进 展之际，风险偏好有所改善。日本方面，执政的自民党与日本维新会之间的联合执政谈判取 得了进展。 Nugent 补充说，当地一家媒体报道称，双方可能在周二议会投票前于今日签署 协议。 此外，首尔综合指数高开低走，现跌 0.52% 。 | 首尔综合指数 | | | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.KOSPI | | | 3729.47 -19.42 -0.52% | | | | 10-20 08:24:10 | | 最高 3777.57 | 今开 3775.40 | | 最低 3728.38 | 昨收 3748.89 | | 日K 園K 月K 室K 更多, ◎ | 分时 | | 均价:3753.13 最新:3729.47 -19.4 ...

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's economy showed robust growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong merchandise exports and improved local demand [1] - Future export growth may face pressure due to tariff factors, but economic stimulus measures from mainland China are expected to enhance business confidence [1] Financial Sector - The pre-tax operating profit of Hong Kong's retail banks increased by 13.4% year-on-year, primarily due to higher revenues from foreign exchange and derivatives, as well as increased fees and commissions [1] - The banking sector maintained high liquidity and ample capital [1] Stock Market and Capital Activity - The Hang Seng Index rose by 9.3% from late February to the end of August, recovering after a sharp decline in early April [2] - Initial public offering (IPO) financing in Hong Kong reached HKD 107.1 billion in the first half of the year, eight times that of the same period last year [2] Currency and Debt Securities - The Hong Kong dollar experienced a strong performance following active capital market activities, with bank credit returning to positive growth and total deposits continuing to rise [2] - The total issuance of Hong Kong dollar debt securities increased by 11.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 28,287 billion in the first half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Kato Sanae, a prominent candidate for the leadership of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), plans to implement tax incentives and cash subsidies for families if elected [1][2] - Kato Sanae aims to raise the tax-exempt income threshold and eliminate gasoline taxes as part of her economic stimulus measures [1] - Kato Sanae's leadership could mark a significant shift in Japan's political landscape, potentially making her the first female Prime Minister of Japan [1] Group 2 - Kato Sanae's political stance is characterized by a strong conservative approach, advocating for aggressive economic stimulus to promote growth [1] - In a recent poll conducted from September 12 to 15, Kato Sanae received 19.7% support among LDP supporters, ranking second behind her competitor, Koizumi Shinjiro, who garnered 31.8% [1] - Kato Sanae has not addressed monetary policy in her recent statements, despite her previous opposition to interest rate hikes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Ministry of Finance is preparing to implement stimulus measures to counteract the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs while accelerating regulatory reforms to enhance national competitiveness [1] Group 1: Economic Stimulus Measures - The Ministry plans to implement stimulus measures to compensate for the potential negative effects of a slowdown in net export income on economic growth [1] - If net export income declines and affects economic growth, the government is ready to consider measures to stimulate domestic consumption and investment [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Tax Policies - Proposed measures may include accelerating public investment budget payments for various infrastructure projects to stimulate economic activity and create domestic job opportunities [1] - Tax policies may be introduced to encourage consumption, such as tax reductions for domestic tourism or shopping, to offset the slowdown in foreign demand [1] Group 3: Support for Key Economic Sectors - There will be support for the tourism and service sectors, which are critical engines of the Thai economy [1]

Group 1 - The recently announced US-EU trade agreement has faced strong criticism from Germany and France, with warnings that it could harm the EU economy and lead to increased inflation [1][2] - The agreement, described by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the "largest trade agreement in history," covers nearly 44% of global GDP and aims to prevent a transatlantic trade war [2] - The agreement secures a lower tariff rate for the EU compared to the threatened 30% tariffs by the US, but the new 15% tariff is still three times higher than the average tariffs prior to Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement in April [3] Group 2 - European stock markets reacted negatively to the agreement, with the German DAX index falling by 1% and the French CAC40 index down by 0.4%, as initial optimism was overshadowed by concerns over the EU's economic outlook [3] - The automotive sector, significantly impacted by the tariffs, saw a decline of 1.8% in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after an initial rise [3] - The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed the agreement but noted that the 15% tariff still represents a significant increase in trade costs, suggesting that more industries should be included in the zero-tariff list [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister expressed an open attitude towards implementing further stimulus measures to mitigate the economic impact of increased U.S. tariffs, while remaining cautious about reducing the consumption tax rate [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The government is prepared to take additional measures to alleviate the economic pain caused by U.S. tariff increases [1] - Any measures taken must specifically target the households most affected, rather than being broadly applied [1] Group 2: Consumption Tax - There are calls from opposition parties and some ruling party members for the government to lower the consumption tax to help families cope with rising living costs [1] - The current consumption tax rate in Japan is 10%, with a reduced rate of 8% for food [1]

Group 1 - The Thai government plans to introduce economic stimulus measures in the second half of the year to support growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai government may require at least 500 billion Thai Baht in economic stimulus measures to address the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Group 1 - The Thai Finance Minister indicated the necessity for substantial economic stimulus to mitigate external economic pressures [1]