Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing financing pressure on U.S. financial institutions since October, leading to tighter dollar liquidity and a phase of dollar appreciation. The Federal Reserve plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) process by December 1, 2025, which includes stopping the reduction of Treasury securities while continuing to reduce MBS [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop shrinking its balance sheet aims to support dollar liquidity and alleviate financing pressures in the short-term financing market, which relies heavily on Treasury securities as collateral [2][21]. - The Fed's actions indicate a blurring of the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, with expectations of a potential restart of balance sheet expansion as early as Q1 next year [3][33]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Since June 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.3 trillion, with Treasury and MBS reductions of about $1.6 trillion and $0.6 trillion, respectively [5][21]. - The liquidity in the U.S. dollar market has reached a low point since the pandemic, with narrow liquidity measures falling below the "ample liquidity" threshold [5][12]. Group 3: Financing Market Pressures - The financing market has experienced significant pressure, with borrowing through the discount window increasing since July, particularly following regional bank crises in October [10][13]. - The repo market has seen rising financing demands, with the secured overnight financing market's borrowing amount increasing from $1 trillion at the end of 2022 to $3 trillion, primarily driven by unregulated non-bank institutions [26][27]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Implications - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan may increase the deficit by approximately $400 billion, with the annual deficit rate expected to widen to 6.4% [37]. - If the government ends its shutdown, nearly $1 trillion in funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be injected into the market, enhancing liquidity [37]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that under a dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, the nominal economic cycle in the U.S. is likely to restart, benefiting both U.S. and Chinese stock markets, as well as commodities like gold and copper [38]. - The focus for investment should be on themes of security and resilience amid changing geopolitical landscapes, emphasizing productivity enhancement and resource self-sufficiency [38].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction - The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.38 trillion from April 13, 2022, to October 29, 2025, decreasing total assets from a peak of $8.97 trillion to $6.59 trillion, averaging a monthly decline of about $56 billion[4][7]. - The reserve balance has decreased by $970 billion to $2.83 trillion during the same period, with the ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repurchase) declining to $370 billion from $1.7 trillion[9][3]. - The expected "ample reserves" level is estimated at $2.7 trillion, which corresponds to 9.3% of nominal GDP and 11.5% of total assets of U.S. commercial banks as of October 29, 2025[15][3]. Group 2: Indicators of Ample Reserves - Ample reserves are characterized by a balance that is neither abundant nor scarce, with the current reserve level indicating it is approaching "ample" status[11][15]. - The ON RRP has been consistently below $100 billion since October 7, 2025, indicating a significant reduction in excess liquidity[17]. - Market interest rates, such as the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) and Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), have shown increased sensitivity, suggesting that reserves are nearing "ample" conditions[20][21]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - After the cessation of balance sheet reduction, reserves may continue to decline temporarily before stabilizing and gradually increasing, with expectations of reaching slightly above $2.7 trillion by mid-2026[27][26]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to balance sheet reduction aims to mitigate the risk of liquidity crises, as seen in the 2019 episode, but liquidity pressures are still a concern[30][31]. - If liquidity pressures unexpectedly rise, it could lead to fluctuations in Treasury yields, with potential short-term declines in rates if investor demand increases due to heightened concerns about liquidity risks[36][39].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is at a crossroads of monetary policy shifts and fiscal sustainability, with increasing complexity due to diverging views within the Federal Reserve and rising uncertainty in economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, and announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 [1]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for larger rate cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates, reflecting a lack of consensus [2]. - Inflation remains a significant concern, with September inflation reaching its highest level since January, driven by rising prices of essential goods [2]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 143%, a historical high, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6]. - The ongoing government shutdown has complicated data collection, including employment statistics, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding economic indicators [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs is contributing to rising consumer prices, with estimates suggesting that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs [3]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Investor Behavior - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to approximately 70%, indicating heightened uncertainty in market expectations [6]. - Investors are adjusting their strategies in response to the volatility in the Treasury market, with suggestions to shift towards longer-duration bonds to mitigate exposure to short-term policy fluctuations [8]. - The upcoming presidential election in November is expected to increase market volatility, with historical data indicating a 10-15% higher volatility in election years compared to non-election years [7].

Group 1: US Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The Federal Reserve has recently implemented a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points, but has continued its balance sheet reduction, leading to tighter liquidity conditions in the US financial markets [1][4] - In September, the Fed's total assets decreased by $15 billion, bringing the total to $6.59 trillion, with a cumulative reduction of $2.38 trillion since April 2022 [3][4] - The current pace of balance sheet reduction is approximately $22 billion per month, raising concerns about potential liquidity crises similar to those experienced in September 2019 [9][4] Group 2: US Fiscal Policy and Tariff Revenue - The US federal government's tariff revenue reached a record net income of $30 billion in September, largely due to increased tariffs implemented since April 2025 [9][11] - The cumulative tariff revenue for the first half of the year is projected to be $152 billion, with an annual estimate of $300 billion, which could alleviate some fiscal pressures [11] - However, industries reliant on imports, such as manufacturing and retail, have faced significant challenges due to these tariffs, impacting their second-quarter performance [11] Group 3: US Treasury Market Dynamics - The US economy showed a GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2, driven by AI technology and policies from the Trump administration, yet investor confidence in dollar assets remains divided [13][15] - Many central banks are adjusting their foreign exchange reserves by selling US Treasuries and buying gold, indicating a shift towards safer assets [15] - The volatility in the US Treasury market has increased, with long-term investors like central banks and pension funds becoming more cautious about entering the market [17][19] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is experiencing pressure on macro liquidity due to a slowdown in government bond issuance and the expiration of several monetary policy tools [22][24] - With valuations returning to historical averages, the market may face adjustment risks, although the upcoming Q3 earnings reports could provide clarity on performance expectations [24][26] - The overall liquidity in the A-share market is closely tied to the inflow of capital, with current conditions suggesting a stable range around 4000 points [24][26] Group 5: Long-term Market Trends - The global monetary system is undergoing changes, and domestic industries are upgrading, presenting potential structural opportunities in sectors like gold and technology [28]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing fluctuations, currently at 97.35, with a slight increase of 0.12%, while the overall financing environment in the U.S. Treasury market is tightening [1] Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Conditions - The dollar index opened at 97.23 and is facing resistance from previous highs, indicating a potential for short-term volatility [1] - Initial stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for the dollar, but the index remains constrained [1] - The general collateral (GC) repo rate opened at 4.17%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating overnight funding rates are hovering between 4.00% and 4.25% [1] Group 2: Market Focus and Key Events - Market attention is concentrated on the upcoming Treasury bill auction results and public statements from several Federal Reserve officials, which are expected to influence the relationship between the Treasury market and the dollar [1] - The dollar index faces short-term resistance levels between 97.40 and 97.45, with significant support levels between 97.15 and 97.20 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 97.45 to 97.05, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's call for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with the anticipated increase in short-term debt issuance, may disrupt the U.S. Treasury market and ultimately raise long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1 - Bondholders seek assurance that the Federal Reserve's role is to protect the real value of their principal [1] - If bondholders perceive that the Federal Reserve is more focused on government financing, it could lead to bond sell-offs and higher term premiums [1]

Core Insights - The report titled "2025 Digital Asset Series Research - CCB International" analyzes the differences between the real world and the virtual/digital world, emphasizing the concepts of "centralization" and "decentralization" [1] - It highlights stablecoins as a crucial bridge connecting virtual and real value, with a projected trading volume of approximately $37 trillion in 2024, surpassing Bitcoin [1] - The report discusses the implications of stablecoins on monetary supply, the U.S. Treasury market, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar, as well as the differences in digital currency strategies between China and the U.S. [1] Summary by Sections Historical and Technical Analysis - The report examines the historical, cultural, and technical aspects of digital assets, focusing on the fundamental differences between centralized and decentralized systems [1] - It identifies fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies (excluding Bitcoin) as two incentive carriers within these systems, with their value dependent on ecosystem activity, integrity, and consensus [1] Focus on Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined as digital currencies pegged to specific assets to maintain value stability, with the top two stablecoins (USDT and USDC) accounting for 60% and 23% of the market, respectively [1] - The report categorizes stablecoins based on their collateralization methods and discusses the "impossible trinity" challenge of achieving price stability, capital efficiency, and decentralization simultaneously [1] Macroeconomic Implications - The report analyzes the macroeconomic impact of stablecoins on monetary supply and the U.S. Treasury market, as well as the implications for U.S. dollar hegemony [1] - It contrasts China's approach to digital currency (promoting the digital yuan) with the U.S. focus on dollar stablecoin tokenization [1] Hong Kong's Stablecoin Development - The report explores the reasons behind Hong Kong's development of stablecoins, including the aim to establish a digital asset hub and activate the RMB ecosystem [1] - It discusses the coexistence of stablecoins with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and outlines the differences in regulatory frameworks between Hong Kong and the U.S./Europe [1] Applications and Infrastructure - Stablecoins are examined in various applications, including retail payments, cross-border transfers, virtual asset trading, RWA, and DeFi [1] - The report introduces the stablecoin economic ecosystem in Hong Kong and the business models of key service providers, as well as the impact of stablecoins on traditional financial institutions and the necessary infrastructure for expanding specific use cases [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of downward pressure, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but showing structural weaknesses, and inflation rising at a moderate pace [3][5][71] - The U.S. stock market reached new historical highs in August, while U.S. Treasury yields significantly rebounded, with 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year Treasury yields changing by +3, -14, -35, and -27 basis points respectively [4][14] - The report forecasts that the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields may reach annual lows of 3.6% and 3.2% respectively, as the market undergoes deleveraging and the "de-dollarization" process comes to a temporary halt [3][7][110] Group 2 - The issuance of U.S. Treasuries in August totaled $2.26 trillion, down from $2.51 trillion in the previous month, with a significant increase in short-term Treasury bill (T-Bill) issuance [22][23] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has shown signs of recovery, although overseas investor demand has weakened due to lower yields compared to European and Japanese bonds [24][25] - The report highlights that the Treasury Department is expected to maintain its current debt financing structure, focusing on short-term T-Bill issuance while keeping long-term debt issuance at lower levels [25][26] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment for the U.S. Treasury market is characterized by a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a clear signal for a potential rate cut in September [5][71] - The report notes that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July recorded at 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a potential shift in employment dynamics [77][85] - The report emphasizes that inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate, with the CPI and core CPI showing year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 3.1% respectively, suggesting limited upward pressure on inflation in the near term [79][82]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of stablecoins is transforming them from mere crypto assets into key financial variables with macroeconomic implications, impacting traditional financial systems, particularly in areas like money supply, credit creation, and the U.S. Treasury market [2]. Group 1: Stablecoins as Financial Ecosystem Variables - Stablecoins have evolved from being used solely in the crypto market to broader applications, showcasing advantages in cross-border payments and crypto settlements due to their 24/7 availability and low costs [4]. - Global regulatory frameworks are being established to address the rapid development of stablecoins, with the U.S. implementing the GENIUS Act to set clear licensing and reserve requirements [4]. Group 2: Financial Institutions' Participation in the Stablecoin Ecosystem - Commercial banks are actively issuing on-chain deposits to counteract the risk of deposit erosion from stablecoins while also providing reserve custody services to stablecoin issuers [5]. - Asset management companies are managing the substantial reserves of stablecoins, particularly U.S. Treasury securities, recognizing the market opportunity as stablecoin reserves reach hundreds of billions [5]. - Payment companies are leveraging their networks to create closed ecosystems by issuing their own stablecoins or integrating third-party stablecoins to reduce payment costs and enhance transaction efficiency [5]. - Exchanges are capitalizing on the infrastructure benefits by providing low-cost fiat-stablecoin exchange channels and developing stablecoin derivatives to attract institutional investors [5]. Group 3: Impact of Stablecoins on Money Supply - The key to stablecoins not expanding the total M2 money supply lies in their adherence to a 1:1 reserve ratio, which results in structural changes in existing M2 rather than net expansion [7]. - If stablecoins begin to pay interest and expand into everyday payment scenarios, they could significantly compete with traditional banks, potentially eroding bank deposits and limiting credit creation [7]. - The introduction of a fractional reserve system for stablecoins could lead to actual M2 expansion, as stablecoin issuers would gain the ability to create new money through leverage [8]. Group 4: Stablecoins as a New Cornerstone for U.S. Treasury - Stablecoins are creating substantial incremental demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bills, as their reserves grow to hundreds of billions [9]. - However, the inherent risks associated with stablecoins could make them a "fragile fulcrum" for the Treasury market, particularly during liquidity crises when large-scale redemptions could lead to forced sales of Treasury holdings [9]. Group 5: Lessons from the Breakdown of the Bretton Woods System - The potential decoupling risks faced by stablecoins echo the trust crisis that led to the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, particularly if regulators allow a shift to a fractional reserve model [10]. - The transition from a fully reserved system to a fractional reserve model for stablecoins could fundamentally alter their nature, transforming them from passive digital assets to active credit creators [10]. Group 6: Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. GENIUS Act establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold reserves in high-quality liquid assets and undergo regular audits [31]. - Hong Kong has implemented the Stablecoin Ordinance, mandating that stablecoin issuers maintain 100% backing with high-quality assets and obtain licenses from the HKMA [32]. - Singapore's MAS has introduced a regulatory framework for single-currency stablecoins, ensuring that reserves equal at least 100% of the circulating stablecoin value [33]. - The EU's MiCA regulation categorizes different types of crypto assets and imposes reserve and disclosure requirements to protect consumers and maintain financial stability [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation includes ongoing flood - prevention, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish signals from the Fed. Supply - demand shows high iron - water production and increased coking coal inventory. Technically, the coking coal main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market sentiment decline caused by exchange position limits [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The flood - prevention situation remains severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August. In July, China's rebar production was 1.5182 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative production from January to July was 11.3387 million tons, also a 2.3% year - on - year decrease. Overseas, there are geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water production is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The coking coal inventory has shifted downstream, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the exchange's second position limit in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the futures price is expected to weaken in the short term. The coking coal main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the contract position decreased by 3,482 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke monthly spread decreased by 25 points. The number of registered coke warrants remained unchanged, and the futures ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.01 points [9][11][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia Wuhai also remained unchanged. As of August 22, the coke basis increased by 43 points to - 184 yuan/ton. In July, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal production was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Upstream**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.17%, an increase of 0.04%. The daily coke output is 523,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons. The coke inventory is 394,700 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory is 8.2394 million tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.8 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 196,700 tons to 8.5733 million tons, a 13.28% year - on - year increase. The port coke inventory decreased, and the steel mill coke inventory also decreased [36][38][42]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 15.58% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a 21.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 17, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.2773 million square meters, a 1.32% month - on - month decrease and a 12.33% year - on - year decrease. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities increased by 8.00% month - on - month, and that of second - tier cities decreased by 14.70% month - on - month [44][46][49]