以下文章来源于百家研究院 ，作者Degg_GMF 百家研究院 . 扑克财经旗下研究服务平台，分享优秀的产业洞见和研究方法论！点我关注，与大宗商品及产业投资资深人士为伍。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 相信价格研究院 来源 | 相信价格研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 白银近期暴力上涨，过去1个月内涨幅超过40%，成为市场关切。尽管白银并非GMF Research的覆盖资产类别，但考虑到其对黄金、铜的外溢影响，以及 潜在的金融稳定风险，有必要对历史可比案例进行回顾。本文中，我们回顾历史上白银"崩盘"的宏观背景、催化因素以及其他相关资产在白银"崩盘"时期 的表现。本文分三个部分，第一部分简述白银崩盘的定义并统计10次案例基本回撤情况，第二部分从叙事角度（Narrative Review）回顾10次崩盘的宏观 背景和触发因素，第三部分从数据角度回顾银价崩盘时的宏观背景和其他资产走势，第四部分总结。 白银崩盘的定义和10次案例基本情况 在本研究中，我们将银价（具体以Engelhard未锻造工业银条每日收盘价）单周最大跌幅超过15%，或全月最大跌幅超过30%定义为"银市"崩 盘。基于这一定义，我们找 ...

格隆汇12月15日｜睿盛银行预期，美联储明年会继续温和减息，在关税问题抑制经济增长下，虽然有低 利率和AI投资抵销相关影响，但预期2026年美国经济增长或略较2025年放缓。另一方面，美联储新主 席是否有亲特朗普的候选人担任，仍有待观察，现时预计美国明年会降息3次。 该行维持对股票长期升势的看法，指企业盈利和美国低利率环境会继续支撑股票市场。明年前景看来更 具挑战性，主要因为估值已变得很高及全球经济前景疲弱。企业能否继续以令人信服的盈利增速满足市 场的高预期，将成为关键因素。有机会令市况波动性变得更大。 该行提到，在在不稳定时期，美元仍是热门避险资产。如果美元出现意外的突然升值，部分沽美元进的 合约更有机会需要平仓，将会产生反效果，即推高美元。 ...

1、吸引资本流入： 头条文章养成计划 美联储加息是指美国联邦储备系统（美联储）提高基准利率的行为。加息通常会对美元产生一定影响，比如导致美元升值，接下来为大家讲解美联储加息美 元升值的主要原因。 此外，加息对美国经济和全球经济也可能带来一些影响和挑战。可能导致借款成本上升，影响企业和个人的贷款活动和消费能力。此外，还可能导致全球市 场对资本的紧缩和金融市场的波动，从而对全球经济产生一定影响。 美联储加息可以提高美国的利率水平，从而吸引全球投资者将资金流入美国市场。由于投资者寻求较高的回报率，高利率环境下的美国资产变得更具吸引 力，从而推动资本流入。这种资本流入将增加对美元的需求，从而导致美元升值。 总之，美联储加息可以引起美元升值的预期和影响。吸引资本流入、增强货币信心、利率差异和对冲风险是影响美元升值的主要因素。 2、增强货币信心： 需要注意的是，外汇市场是非常复杂和多变的，走势受到多种因素的综合影响，预测汇率变动是具有一定风险的。因此，投资者在进行外汇交易时应充分了 解市场情况，做好风险管理和资金规划。 4、对冲风险： 加息可能导致全球金融市场产生波动和不确定性。在这种情况下，投资者通常会寻求避险资产，如 ...

Group 1: Domestic Oil Price Adjustment - The domestic oil price adjustment is expected to occur on November 24, with a forecasted decrease in oil prices due to a negative change rate of -0.94% in international crude oil prices, leading to a potential drop of approximately 50 yuan per ton, or 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter for gasoline [1][2] - The current downward trend in oil prices has already met the minimum adjustment standard, indicating that gasoline prices, which recently exceeded 7 yuan per liter, are likely to revert to the "6 yuan era" [2] Group 2: International Oil Price Dynamics - The strong performance of the US dollar and changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions have exerted downward pressure on crude oil prices, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 90% to 35% [3] - Light crude oil futures for January delivery fell by $0.94 to $58.06 per barrel, a decrease of 1.59%, while Brent crude oil futures also declined by $0.82 to $62.56 per barrel, down 1.29% [3] Group 3: Regional Gasoline Prices - Gasoline prices vary across regions, with notable prices including: - Northeast: Liaoning 8.19 yuan/liter, Jilin 8.12 yuan/liter, Heilongjiang 8.43 yuan/liter [3] - North China: Beijing 8.89 yuan/liter, Tianjin 8.82 yuan/liter, Hebei 8.14 yuan/liter [4] - East China: Shanghai 9.25 yuan/liter, Jiangsu 9.41 yuan/liter, Zhejiang 9.36 yuan/liter [5] - Central China: Henan 8.67 yuan/liter, Hubei 9.44 yuan/liter, Hunan 8.33 yuan/liter [6] - South China: Guangdong 9.54 yuan/liter, Guangxi 8.82 yuan/liter, Hainan 9.55 yuan/liter [7] - Southwest: Chongqing 8.35 yuan/liter, Sichuan 8.52 yuan/liter, Yunnan 8.29 yuan/liter [8] - Northwest: Shaanxi 9.48 yuan/liter, Gansu 7.97 yuan/liter, Xinjiang 8.05 yuan/liter [9] Group 4: Diesel Prices by Region - Diesel prices also show regional variation, with prices such as: - Northeast: Liaoning 6.49 yuan/liter, Jilin 6.50 yuan/liter, Heilongjiang 6.43 yuan/liter [11] - North China: Beijing 6.62 yuan/liter, Tianjin 6.58 yuan/liter, Hebei 6.58 yuan/liter [11] - East China: Shanghai 6.56 yuan/liter, Jiangsu 6.55 yuan/liter, Zhejiang 6.57 yuan/liter [11] - Central China: Henan 6.56 yuan/liter, Hubei 6.57 yuan/liter, Hunan 6.64 yuan/liter [11] - South China: Guangdong 6.59 yuan/liter, Guangxi 6.64 yuan/liter, Hainan 6.67 yuan/liter [11] - Southwest: Chongqing 6.65 yuan/liter, Sichuan 6.64 yuan/liter, Yunnan 6.66 yuan/liter [11] - Northwest: Shaanxi 6.48 yuan/liter, Gansu 6.49 yuan/liter, Xinjiang 6.36 yuan/liter [11]

Group 1 - The market generally believes that the downward pressure on the US economy will ease, leading to a stronger demand for the US dollar [2][4] - As of late September, the Japanese yen was trading around 147 yen per dollar, experiencing a significant depreciation of over 7 yen in just a month and a half [4] - On November 12, the yen fell to 155 yen per dollar, marking the first time it reached this level in about nine months since February 4 [2][6] Group 2 - The US Senate passed a temporary budget bill on the 10th to end the longest government shutdown in history, with expectations that the House will vote on it soon [4] - There are views that the new Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, will implement expansionary fiscal policies, prompting investors to sell the yen against various currencies [4] - On November 12, the yen fell to 179 yen per euro, setting a record low since the euro's inception in 1999 [4] Group 3 - There is speculation that if the yen depreciates beyond 155 yen per dollar, the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan may intervene by buying yen [6] - Japan maintains the lowest policy interest rates among major economies, lacking factors to support yen buying [6] - Future focus may shift to whether Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki will increase verbal interventions to curb yen depreciation [6]

Core Insights - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3433 trillion, marking a $4.7 billion increase from September, the highest level since December 2015 [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the rise in the US dollar index and overall global financial asset prices, influenced by major economies' monetary policies and macroeconomic data [1] - The US dollar index rose approximately 1.95% in the past month, while major non-USD currencies depreciated against the dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months [1] - The increase in reserves is a result of combined effects from exchange rate adjustments and asset price changes [1] - The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the easing of US-China trade tensions have contributed to the strengthening of the dollar [1] Group 2: Asset Prices and Market Trends - Global stock and bond markets showed overall strength in October, supporting China's foreign exchange reserves [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by about 5 basis points due to the Fed's rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] - Major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nikkei, experienced gains, reflecting high market sentiment [2] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of October, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.409 million ounces, with a monthly rise of 30,000 ounces, the lowest increase since November 2024 [2] - The People's Bank of China has been gradually increasing gold reserves since March, with monthly additions below 100,000 ounces [2] - The recent trend indicates a potential slowdown in gold purchases by central banks, including China, amid fluctuating gold prices [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The foreign exchange authority emphasizes the stability of China's economic fundamentals, which are expected to support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [2] - The central bank's strategy to optimize international reserves and promote the internationalization of the renminbi suggests continued interest in gold accumulation [3] - The dual nature of gold as both a financial and commodity asset positions it as a key component in diversifying international reserves [3]

Core Viewpoint - As of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3433 trillion, marking a $4.7 billion increase from September, the highest level since December 2015, with reserves remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves in October was influenced by major economies' monetary policies, macroeconomic data, and a rising dollar index, which led to an overall increase in global financial asset prices [1] - The dollar index rose approximately 1.95% in the past month, while the euro, yen, and pound depreciated against the dollar by 1.7%, 4%, and 2.2% respectively [1] - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October, the dollar index strengthened due to market expectations cooling on further rate cuts, alongside improved China-U.S. trade relations and increased geopolitical uncertainty [1] Group 2: Asset Prices and Economic Outlook - Global stock and bond markets strengthened in October, supporting China's foreign exchange reserves, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declining by about 5 basis points due to the Fed's rate cut and government shutdown concerns [2] - The outlook for China's foreign exchange reserves remains stable, supported by the country's strong economic fundamentals and potential for growth [2] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of October, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.409 million ounces, a rise of 30,000 ounces, marking the lowest increase since November 2024 [2] - The People's Bank of China has been gradually increasing gold reserves since March, with monthly increments below 100,000 ounces, signaling a strategy to optimize international reserves [2] - The gold market has experienced volatility, with prices briefly exceeding $4,300 per ounce before a rapid correction, indicating potential slowing in central bank purchases due to reaching target levels [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average stock index rose significantly, supported by the depreciation of the yen and strong earnings reports from Japanese and American companies, marking a breakthrough above the 52,000-point level for the first time. Group 1 - On October 31, the Nikkei average closed at 52,411.34 points, an increase of 1,085.73 points (2.12%) from the previous day, surpassing the 52,000-point mark for the first time [2]. - Despite a decline in U.S. stocks the previous day and a significant drop in Meta's share price, the Japanese stock market remained buoyant due to the yen's depreciation and strong corporate earnings [4]. - The Nikkei index reached its highest point of the day at the close, indicating robust buying interest in the market [4].

Core Insights - The recent depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has significant implications for both consumers and exporters, with the exchange rate affecting the cost of imports and the revenue from exports [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The exchange rate operates like a seesaw, where a stronger dollar results in a weaker yuan, influenced by economic stability, interest rates, and investment flows [3][4]. - The US dollar's strength is attributed to multiple interest rate hikes and positive economic data, attracting global capital, while the yuan remains relatively stable due to slower domestic consumption and investment recovery [3][4]. Impact on Consumers - The depreciation of the yuan means higher costs for consumers purchasing imported goods, such as electronics and education expenses, which have increased significantly in yuan terms [3][4]. - For individuals holding dollar-denominated financial products, the appreciation of the dollar translates to gains from currency exchange [3][4]. Export Opportunities - A weaker yuan can benefit domestic exporters, as their products become cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing sales and revenue when converted back to yuan [1][7]. - The current exchange rate scenario presents opportunities for savvy exporters to capitalize on favorable currency conditions [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - The yuan's value is not solely determined by current exchange rates but is a reflection of broader economic conditions, including trade balances and investment flows [6][8]. - The increasing use of the yuan in global trade indicates growing confidence in its stability, suggesting that as long as the domestic economy remains robust, the yuan will maintain its value over the long term [6][8]. Consumer Strategies - Consumers are advised to be strategic about currency exchange, particularly when planning international purchases, and to consider diversifying their investments to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations [6][8].

Group 1 - The narrative has shifted from expectations of interest rate cuts to a stronger dollar narrative, as market participants reassess the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates due to resilient labor market data [3][4] - The dollar has become a safe haven amid political turmoil in Europe and Japan, leading to significant depreciation of other major currencies like the euro and yen [4][5] - Hedge funds have been increasingly buying call options on the dollar against G10 currencies, indicating bullish sentiment for the dollar's future performance [5][6] Group 2 - The strong dollar is causing capital outflows from emerging markets, with a notable trend of net outflows observed in recent weeks [7] - Rising dollar value is putting pressure on commodity prices, which could hinder economic recovery in regions heavily reliant on imports [8] - Emerging market countries face increased debt burdens due to dollar appreciation, with significant implications for sovereign credit spreads [9] Group 3 - U.S. exporters are facing profit warnings as a strong dollar negatively impacts revenues from overseas markets, with major companies adjusting their earnings forecasts [10] - The current political deadlock in the U.S. is creating uncertainty in economic data releases, which could lead to increased volatility in the dollar's value [11] - The situation for dollar bears is becoming increasingly precarious, as various factors could trigger further appreciation of the dollar, leading to potential losses for those betting against it [12]