Group 1: Employment Data Revision Insights - The July non-farm payroll report revised the employment data for May and June down by 258,000, raising concerns about the accuracy of U.S. employment data[4] - Since 1979, the probability of downward revisions in non-farm payrolls has increased during economic slowdowns, with a current downward revision probability of 72.4% since 2023[10] - The average downward revision magnitude has widened to -12.8% in 2023, compared to a historical average of -8.4%[10] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Data Volatility - Four main factors have contributed to increased volatility in U.S. employment data post-pandemic: decreased response rates in non-farm surveys, increased immigration complicating data collection, seasonal disruptions, and larger errors in the Birth-Death Model[6] - The response rate for non-farm surveys has dropped from 59% pre-pandemic to 42.9% in May 2025, indicating a significant reduction in sample size[19] - The Birth-Death Model has led to an estimated overestimation of employment levels by approximately 440,000 jobs due to structural changes in new business formations[21] Group 3: Upcoming Employment Data Revisions - Attention is drawn to the upcoming benchmark revision of non-farm employment data scheduled for September 9, 2025, which may lead to further downward adjustments[7] - The QCEW data, which covers over 95% of employment, is expected to provide a more accurate reflection of employment levels compared to the non-farm payrolls, which cover only about one-third[44] - Historical trends suggest that the upcoming benchmark revision may result in a downward adjustment similar to the previous year's initial revision of 818,000 jobs[52]

美国总统特朗普周二表示，财政部长贝森特告诉他，自己不希望被提名接替鲍威尔成为下一任美联储主 席。特朗普在接受采访时表示："我昨晚刚问他，这是你想要的职位吗?贝森特的回答是，'不，我想留 在现在的位置上'。""他干得很出色，他想继续做现在的工作，所以我就把他排除了。他不想要这个职 位。他喜欢当财政部长。他做得真的很好。" 特朗普表示，他正在考虑四位候选人——包括前美联储理事凯文.沃什和国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈塞 特，但他也提醒称自己并不打算很快做出决定。特朗普补充称："我觉得可以说'两个凯文'都很好，还 有其他人也非常不错。" 值得一提的是，任期原定于2026年1月31日结束的美联储理事库格勒上周五意外宣布提前卸任，谁将填 补她在理事会的职位空缺成为市场关注的焦点。原因在于，库格勒的继任者极有可能成为下一任美联储 主席，其提前离职为特朗普更快地将"影子主席"安排进美联储理事会提供了良机。 特朗普一再向美联储施压，要求其降息，并在社交媒体上批评鲍威尔。特朗普多次指责美联储和鲍威尔 降息太慢、误判通胀。他认为，美联储目前维持利率不变的做法使得联邦政府的债务服务成本过高，抑 制了经济增长。 尽管鲍威尔在上周的美联储 ...

据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.9%，降息25个基点的概率为 89.1%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为3.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为35.6%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为60.9%。 8月4日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升101点至7.1395，升幅创2025年1月21日以来最大。 美联储9月降息的概率为89.1% 国泰海通：7月美国就业数据或尚不足以改变鲍威尔偏鹰立场 7月美国非农新增就业不及预期，前两月数据也有大幅下修，而失业率仅小幅上行。国泰海通认为，5月 以来特朗普驱逐移民政策对就业市场的影响逐渐加大，而驱逐移民会给非农新增就业人数带来明显拖 累，但对失业率的冲击较小，或是失业率与非农新增就业出现分歧的关键。未来来看，7月就业数据或 尚不足以改变美联储主席鲍威尔偏鹰立场。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - Former President Trump calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, citing mistakes in interest rate decisions [2] - Trump criticizes Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre for allegedly inflating employment data ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections and demands her immediate dismissal [2] - The U.S. Labor Secretary announced the appointment of William Wyatroski as the acting director of the Labor Statistics Bureau, replacing Erica McEntyre [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国7月就业报告意外疲软，引发联储官员对经济前景的进一步担忧。亚特兰大联 储主席博斯蒂克周五表示，最新就业数据令人担忧，或暗示美国经济正在更广泛地走弱。他在接受采访 时称，这份就业报告"具有重要意义"，并指出此前数据的下修"幅度相当大"。 美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示，7月非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11万个；而6月 的就业数据也被大幅下修，从原先估计的逾20万个下调至仅1.4万个。 尽管如此，博斯蒂克表示，目前劳动力市场"在许多方面仍然良好"，并称即便面对这份数据，他也不会 改变本周联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的利率决定。他指出，这些就业数据可能意味着经济中的风险"正 在趋于平衡"，但他强调，当前通胀距离美联储2%的目标仍较远，相较之下，就业市场的偏离程度较 小。 对于市场期待的2025年更多降息可能，博斯蒂克态度谨慎，称"尚未准备"提高降息预测。他还表示，在 当前复杂的经济环境中，企业可能需要长达12个月时间来调整其定价策略，"我认为我们现在处在一个 非常困难的环境里。" 哈马克进一步表示，失业率作为"我们拥有的最可靠指标之一"，仍然处于过去一年内的常规区间，因此 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with new jobs anticipated to drop to 110,000 from 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - Analysts believe that despite signs of cooling in the labor market, this is not sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to immediately lower interest rates, especially given the inflationary pressures from new tariff policies [3] - The market has shifted expectations for a rate cut from September to October, with some analysts warning that the window for the Fed to implement easing policies is narrowing due to rising prices from tariffs [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis of gold indicates that the market is showing signs of weakening bullish momentum, with the 5-month moving average moving up to 3293, suggesting that short-term support is weakening [4] - The price of gold is currently in a wide trading range between 3452 and 3246, with a potential downward movement towards the 10-month moving average around 3050 as tariffs take effect and safe-haven demand decreases [4] - The focus for gold prices this week is on the mid-band level of 3275; a close below this level could open further downside potential, while a close above it would suggest continued wide fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].

Market Overview - Strong U.S. employment data has alleviated market concerns regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a high of 97.42 before closing at 97.08, up 0.32% [1][2] - The precious metals market showed mixed results, with spot gold experiencing a substantial decline, dropping to a low of $3311.65, a decrease of over $50 from its daily high, ultimately closing down 0.94% at $3325.50 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver, while also retreating, saw a strong rebound, closing up 0.78% at $36.82 per ounce [1][2] Employment Data - The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report indicated an increase of 147,000 jobs in the U.S., surpassing the June expectation of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell from 237,000 to 233,000, reflecting resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] - The ADP employment change for June marked the first decline in over two years, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 95,000 jobs [3] Manufacturing and Job Vacancies - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved from 48.5 in May to 49.0 in June, exceeding expert expectations of 48.8, indicating a slight recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [4] - Job openings in the U.S. rose from 4.395 million in April to 4.76 million in May, surpassing the market expectation of 7.3 million [4]

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[2] - Labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected and previous 62.4%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3326.1 per ounce[2] Fed Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0% after the non-farm data release[2] - The probability of a September rate cut decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[2] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[2] ADP vs Non-Farm Data - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[3] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and the impact of tariffs[3] - Non-farm data is considered more reliable as it covers approximately 80% of employment positions compared to ADP's 17%[3] Economic Outlook - The strong non-farm data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting previous assessments[4] - The report indicates that if tariffs do not escalate further, a soft landing for the economy remains likely[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance given manageable economic downturn risks and rising inflation concerns[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by strong U.S. employment data, while central bank gold purchasing trends provide long-term support for prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.68 CNY per gram, down 0.4% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3337.5 USD per ounce, down 0.16% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which in turn pressured gold prices [2]. - Over 90% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, with net purchases expected to exceed 1300 tons by 2025 [3]. - Recent geopolitical stability and trade negotiations have reduced gold's safe-haven demand, although potential increases in U.S. debt could enhance its appeal [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests gold may remain weak unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. unemployment or inflation data [4]. - Long-term potential for gold price increases exists due to weakening U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing central bank purchases, but geopolitical and trade developments must be closely monitored [4].