Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a continued slowdown in non-farm employment growth, with December's addition dropping to 50,000, below the expected 65,000, and a downward revision of 76,000 for October and November combined [2] - The private sector added 37,000 jobs in December, with an average of 43,000 jobs added in November and December, indicating a persistent trend of slowing job growth [2] - The leisure and hospitality sectors contributed significantly to job growth, adding 47,000 and 41,000 jobs respectively, while manufacturing continued to show negative job growth, indicating weak demand in the sector [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the labor force participation rate decreasing to 62.4%, suggesting a complex labor market dynamic [6] - The number of job vacancies in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since 2021, indicating a growing mismatch between labor supply and demand [8] - Average hourly earnings in December increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, reflecting resilience in wage growth despite broader economic challenges [9][12] Group 3 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January decreased significantly from 14% to 5%, indicating a shift in market sentiment following the release of the non-farm data [17] - The overall labor market conditions suggest an increasing supply-demand imbalance, which may continue to exert pressure on the employment market moving forward [17]

从分时图的表现来看，伦敦金在亚市早盘呈现出跳空高开的态势，随后震荡上行。其开盘价为4372.10 美元，价格迅速突破4390这一关键关口，最高攀升至4395.82美元，之后便在4390-4395美元区间内进行 窄幅整理。 再观察4小时图，可以发现价格稳稳运行于5日均线(4370美元)和10日均线(4355美元)之上，形成了短期 的多头排列格局。MACD指标方面，红柱呈现出温和放大的趋势，DIF线与DEA线在零轴上方成功形成 金叉，这一系列迹象表明，短期内价格的上行动能正在逐步恢复。与此同时，RSI指标当前处于58-62区 间，在脱离超买区域后，保持中性偏强的状态，这意味着价格后续仍有上行的空间，不过投资者也需警 惕可能出现的回调风险。 将视角切换至日线级别，伦敦金价格从4402.21美元的历史高位回落，在跌至4300美元附近时获得支撑 并展开反弹，从而形成了W型底部形态，其中颈线位置位于4380-4390美元区间。均线系统层面，5日均 线(4385美元)与10日均线(4360美元)形成金叉且向上发散，20日均线(4330美元)则为中期走势提供了有力 支撑，整体技术形态偏向多头。 美联储政策预期持续发酵，市场普 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase and may be at the beginning of the trend. The mid - term trend is expected to be strong due to Fed's potential rate - cut and expansionary policies, as well as geopolitical risks. However, short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and external market linkages [7]. - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and may be at the end of the trend. The price increase is driven by Fed's rate - cutting strengthening its financial attribute and the booming industrial demand such as photovoltaic. The mid - term trend is also strong, but short - term attention should be paid to US non - farm data and COMEX low - inventory delivery risks [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is sideways, currently possibly at the start of the trend. The mid - term is expected to be strong [7]. - Trend logic: Last week, gold contract 2602 showed a pattern of "policy - driven surge - technical correction - stable oscillation". The Fed's rate - cut and expansionary policies opened up the upward space, and geopolitical risks provided support. Later in the week, profit - taking and technical adjustments led to high - level oscillations, but the expectation of loose macro - liquidity still dominates the mid - term strong pattern [7]. - Strategy advice: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For Shanghai Gold contract 2602, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish, with the upper resistance at 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support at 935 - 950 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips [10]. - This week's strategy advice: For Shanghai Gold contract 2602, be cautiously bullish, with the upper resistance at 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support at 935 - 950 yuan/gram. Buy on dips [11]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [20][22][24]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and may be at the end of the trend [33]. - Trend logic: Last week, Shanghai Silver contract 2602 showed a pattern of "oscillation - surge - stabilization". Driven by the Fed's rate - cut strengthening its financial attribute and booming industrial demand like photovoltaic, its increase significantly exceeded that of gold. After breaking through key resistance, there was a small correction due to profit - taking, but the mid - term strong pattern is supported by loose macro - policies and tight spot supply [33]. - Strategy advice: It is recommended to wait and see [34]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For Silver contract 2602, it was in a strong position at high levels, with the upper resistance at 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips [37]. - This week's strategy advice: For Silver contract 2602, it is in a strong position at high levels, with the lower support at 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kg. Buy on dips [38]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][47][50].

2025 年 12 月 18 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】税收增速回落，基金性收支均回升——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 11 月份财政数据需关注以下三点：其一，税收增速从高位回落，非税表现边际好转， 而支出端则明显加力，基建与就业相关预算支出改善幅度较大；其二，地方债务结存 限额下达并用于补充地方政府综合财力后，政府性基金收支均改善；其三，年内新增 专项债供给基本收官，有利于稳定基建投资。风险提示：政策落地不及预期，重大项 目开工不及预期。 【宏观】政府停摆扰动就业，不足以支撑 1 月降息——2025 年 11 月美国非农数据点 评 11 月美国失业率超预期上行至 4.6%，或是政府停摆带来的"技术性"扰动，停摆期 间大量联邦雇员强制休假，被计入失业人口，暂时推高失业率，随政府重新开门，失 业率有望回落。从结构看，政府部门就业走弱，私营部门仍有韧性，其中 11 月商品 生产部门新增就业 1.9 万人，为 2025 年 5 月以来的最高值。从降息角度看，尽管失 业率超预期抬升，但美联储短期内或维持谨慎降息的节奏不变。 公司研究 【互联网传媒】出海社交龙头，聚焦"灌木丛"产品矩阵 ...

周三(12月17日)亚洲时段，现货黄金延续上涨势头，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4328.39美元/盎司，上涨 0.61%，最高触及4331.20美元/盎司，最低下探4300.39美元/盎司。美国非农数据落地，数据上来看，非 农就业岗位增加超预期，不过11月失业率意外升至4.6%，创下自2021年9月以来的最高水平，市场依然 保持对于美联储降息两次的预期，支撑金价多头，继续关注美国CPI以及PCE数据是否强化黄金多头。 分析师指出，投资者应密切关注即将到来的通胀数据和美联储动向，避免盲目追高，但长远来看，低利 率和全球不确定性将继续支撑黄金的上涨潜力。此外，本交易日还需留意美联储官员的讲话。技术层面 等待突破之后的加速机会。 根据劳工部数据，上月非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，超出经济学家预期的5万个，这标志着就业增长从10 月的近五年最大降幅中强劲反弹。10月就业岗位减少10.5万个，主要受联邦政府职位锐减16.2万个的影 响，而这源于长达43天的政府停摆。停摆不仅扰乱了数据收集，还导致10月失业率未能公布，这是自 1948年以来首次出现此类情况。 昨日黄金市场早盘开盘在4306.4的位置后行情小幅拉升给出4318. ...

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $4,330, with a recent increase of 0.74%, reaching a high of $4,334.23 and a low of $4,300.39, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November shows a job increase of only 64,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, highlighting a weakening job market [2] - The healthcare and construction sectors are supporting job growth, while the federal government and transportation sectors are contracting, reflecting mixed industry performance [2] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with silver prices reaching new highs, indicating a divergence in market performance [3] - The non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, but the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate has been a key factor for the increase in gold prices [3] - The market has shown a pattern of early morning upward movements over the past three trading days, but caution is advised as the market remains in a state of oscillation [3]

事件： 政府停摆扰动就业，不足以支撑 1 月降息 ——2025 年 11 月美国非农数据点评 要点 2025 年 12 月 17 日 总量研究 2025 年 12 月 16 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 11 月非农数据：新增非农就业 6.4 万人，预期 5.0 万人，10 月为-10.5 万人；失业率 4.6%，预期 4.4%；平均 时薪同比升 3.5%，预期升 3.6%。 核心观点： 新增非农就业高于预期，商品生产、专业和商业服务业、教育和保健业表现较好。 （一）专业和商业服务业、教育和保健业：专业和商业服务业中，11 月临时工 服务新增就业从 10 月的-1.3 万人升至-0.5 万人，反映兼职市场需求较高。此外， 随着冬季来临，医疗服务需求也保持稳健。（二）建筑业：随着美联储在 9 月重 启降息，美国房贷利率已呈现下行趋势，拉动相关地产需求，11 月建筑业新增 就业 2.8 万人，是生产部门主要贡献项。 劳动参与率与失业率同步抬升。 2025 年 11 月劳动参与率录得 62.5%，高于 9 月的 62.4%，青年群体就业意愿 回升。从失业人口看，11 月失业人口增加了 22.8 万人，驱动 11 ...

【12月16日市场分析师前瞻美国11月非农数据】12月16日，市场分析师前瞻美国11月非农，市场预期就 业数据疲软，约为5万左右，失业率或升至4.5%。若数据出现下行意外，可能使美联储下一次降息预期 提前，进而支撑金价。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

FOREX.com市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada前瞻美国11月非农：市场正在预期5万左右的疲软就业数据，失 业率可能会上升到4.5%。任何下行意外都可能导致对美联储下一次降息的预期提前，从而支撑金价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of gold is experiencing fluctuations, with significant resistance at 4260 and support levels around 4163 and 4131, indicating a potential for further testing of these levels in the near term [1][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices initially rose to 4264 but faced resistance and retreated, closing at 4196 after a drop below the 4200 mark [1]. - Factors supporting gold include a nearly 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks [1]. - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for November has stabilized the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on gold prices [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests looking for short positions in the 4215-4220 range, with a focus on entering short at 4208 if the market weakens [4]. - Initial support is noted at the recent low of 4163, with further attention on 4131 and a critical level at 4084 for unexpected weakness [1][4]. - The potential for upward movement exists if gold can break above 4260, with targets set at 4300 and possibly 4350 [1].