宏 观 研 究 海外经济研究 世 界 经 济 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 23 日 跟随市场 ——9 月非农点评与 12 月美联储降息展望 10 月 FOMC 会议以来，经济数据"时效性"缺失、美联储内部观点分化，市场对 12 月降息预 期经历"过山车"。9 月非农数据是否支持降息、联储内部哪一派"票数"占优？ 一、热点思考：跟随市场 （一）9 月非农：或是美联储 12 月降息的"非充分条件" 美国 9 月官方就业数据"好坏参半"，非农超预期强劲，但失业率升至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：A 股再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：消息扰动下，债市表现分化 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 21 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：利多带动有限 粕类继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续震荡 国内糖价震荡略涨 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货略有回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：现货价格高位回调，盘面偏弱运行 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：美国非农信号不一 金银延续震荡 16 | | --- | | 铜：短期关注下方支撑 17 | | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 关注仓单 ...

教育保健和休闲酒店仍是主要支撑。 具体行业来看，9月新增就业集中于教育保健和休闲酒店业。多数行业新增就业增加，政府和建筑业新增就业较上月分别 增加了4.4万人和3.3万人。而运输仓储业和其他服务新增就业人数下降最多，分别减少了2.8万人和1.9万人。 失业率续创2021年年底以来新高。 9月失业率小幅上升0.1个百分点至4.4%，继续录得2021年底以来新高。失业率上升，主因9月劳动参与率回升0.1个百分点 至62.4%，显示重返劳动力市场的人增加。不过，就业率上升0.1个百分点。同时，U6失业率回落0.1个百分点至8%，边缘劳动力就业率企稳。综合来看，本月 就业市场有所企稳。 新增非农就业回升，薪资增速持平。 9月新增非农就业升至11.9万人，但前值再度小幅下修，与上次报告相比，7月和8月两个月合计共下调3.3万人。本月教育 保健和休闲酒店仍是新增就业的主要支撑，多数行业新增就业回升，其中政府和建筑业新增就业回升幅度最大。不过，随着接受递延辞职的联邦员工正式退 出，未来政府就业或将大幅下降。工资方面，9月时薪同比增速较上月持平。 失业率小幅上升。 9月失业率小幅上行至4.4%，劳动参与率回升或是主要原因，永 ...

截至北京时间11月19日，国际现货黄金连续第四个交易日下跌，市场情绪降至冰点。为何市场在此时开启 下跌震荡？美联储发声"功不可没"。 近日，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊强调需"缓慢推进"降息，12月降息概率从月前的近100% 暴跌至42%， 市场对美联储降息预期降温，美元指数走强同步削弱了黄金市场的吸引力，黄金持有成本上升也一并压制 了多头进攻之路。 同时，随着美国史上最长政府停摆的结束，市场即将迎来延迟发布的9月非农等经济数据。这些数据将成 为美联储政策路径的关键指引，也可能成为黄金市场的新催化剂。 此外，巨象新客更可享新客充值大礼，高达5万美元新客赠金+新款手机随时入袋，只为增添黄金胜率！ 美国政府停摆造成的数据真空与市场盲飞即将结束，黄金市场重磅行情即将迎数据而至，巨象大数据AI黄 金助手、巨象专业分析师团队、全行至高每手30美元点差返赠等好礼均已备好，与您共同承接本轮盈机， 我们不见不散！ 本周四（11月20日）21:30，美国非农数据公布之时，巨象金业（香港黄金交易所AA类117号行员）资深黄 金分析师金缠也将于巨象官网发布实时发布策略参考。 当前市场普遍预期9月非农就业人口将比8月的2.2万有所提升 ...

换资前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二亚盘时段，黄金交投于4030美元附近，延续下跌，当前市场情绪出现明显变化，投资者对美联储下 月降息的预期大幅回落，使得黄金承压下行。由于利率走向是影响贵金属价格的核心变量之一，当市场 认为美联储不会快速进入宽松周期时，黄金作为无息资产的吸引力下降，直接导致金价延续回调态势。 随着市场下调对美国短期降息的预期，加之美元连续走强，金价承压回落。市场关注本周将公布的美国 非农数据，同时美联储官员发表的鹰派言论强化了维持高利率的市场判断。整体来看，金价短线偏弱运 行，市场情绪对利率路径仍保持高度敏感。 与此同时，美元指数连续第三个交易日走高，令持有其他货币的投资者购买黄金的成本上升，进一步打 压黄金需求。由于此前美国政府关门时间较长，官方经济数据滞后发布，使投资者更依赖美联储政策信 号，从而加剧美元的短线波动，而这也间接影响黄金走势。近期美联储官员相继释放鹰派立场，使市场 更加不敢提前押注降息。这些言论使得市场进一步削弱对12月降息的预期。 最新数据显示，市场目前 仅定价约45%的概率将在12月降息25个基点，显著低于前一周的60%。整体来看 ...

9月28日，国内黄金价格又出现持稳情况，部分金店仍保持涨势。其中，老庙黄金上涨4元，报1110元/ 克，为新的最高价金店；上海中国黄金报价还是1011元/克，为最低价金店。今日高低价差达99元，差 距更大了。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1110 元/克 4 涨 六福黄金价格 1108 元/克 0 平 周大福黄金价格 1108 元/克 0 平 周六福黄金价格 1070 元/克 9 涨 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年9月28日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1108 元/克 0 平 老凤祥黄金价格 1108 元/克 0 平 潮宏基黄金价格 1108 元/克 0 平 周生生黄金价格 1108 元/克 2 涨 菜百黄金价格 1058 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 1011 元/克 0 平 周大生黄金价格 1108 元/克 0 平 今日黄金价格持稳，铂金价格还在大涨，还是说下周生生黄金，今日铂金饰品价格大涨19元/克，报633 元/克。如需了解其他品牌铂金价格，欢迎留言，我们将及时汇总更新。 另外，今日黄金回收价格大涨7.8元/克。不同品牌回收价差较大，以下为部分金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent shifts in the U.S. labor market, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic landscape [8][12][24]. Deep Dive Topic - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industrial restructuring and the signals from central authorities regarding adjustments in industrial structure, aiming to understand the pathways from the previous five-year plan and how the new plan will be implemented [8]. Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading." The employment market's weakness raises questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A recent surge in overseas risk-free interest rates has triggered a sell-off in global sovereign bonds, prompting discussions on the reasons and sustainability of this market behavior [12][24]. - The article critiques the misconception that the decline in exports is due to a "rush to export," asserting that the August trade data reflects broader economic conditions rather than a simple market reaction [17]. High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of August's CPI indicates that core inflation is no longer the primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening trend in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on commodity price increases suggests that while upstream price hikes have positively impacted PPI, low capacity utilization in downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on PPI [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a downward trend in alumina prices, with significant price drops in the spot market and increased supply pressure [1] - Recent transactions in Shandong show a spot price of approximately 2970 yuan/ton for alumina, with a notable price difference of over 200 yuan/ton between southern and northern regions [1] - The increase in inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a rise of 3591 tons to 114,111 tons, reflects strong selling intentions from traders and an increase in discounted transactions [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context includes a downward revision of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which raises concerns about the credibility of labor data and increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Despite a slight increase in operating rates for downstream processing enterprises, demand has not significantly rebounded, with social inventory of aluminum ingots remaining stable at 475,000 tons [1] - The aluminum price is under pressure from weak spot trading, with the Shanghai aluminum 10 contract expected to operate within a range of 20,400 to 21,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - The alloy market is experiencing fluctuations, with macroeconomic sentiment cooling due to the revised U.S. non-farm data [1] - On the raw material side, the cancellation of tax rebates in some regions is supporting the price of scrap aluminum, while smelting profits are rising [1] - The price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 is oscillating around -430, with the main contract expected to operate within a range of approximately 20,200 to 20,600 yuan/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a short-term decline of approximately 40 points, following the release of August non-farm payroll data that significantly fell short of expectations [1] Group 1 - The US dollar index dropped about 40 points in a short time frame [1] - August non-farm payroll data from the US was considerably lower than anticipated [1]