大家好，我是海豚君！ 上周策略周报中，海豚君说了，用一年后的视角来看今天，美国的宏观组合，大概率是"大财政+宽货币"下的通胀经济前景，效果就类似疫情时期+拜登 时期在堆积的国债的情况下，用通胀这种全民买单的方式来化解。但这么操作的基本前提是，需要一个温顺的美联储来配合实现低利率，越早降息越好。 与此同时，特朗普还能上什么大招？高位美股接下来还有两道坎儿，能抗住吗？ 一、沉重的债务负担 疫情开始，美国联邦债务急剧拉升：a. 接近30万亿的债务余额，相比 与 疫情前2019年的17万亿，净增了12万亿; b, 净利率（每年净利息支出占债务余额的 比重）从2019年的2.4%飙升到了3.6%。 海豚君粗略估算，a. 如果付息利率从当前的3.6%，回落100个基点到2.5%上下b. 同时关税上，通过提高税率从原本的2.5%上下，提升到12.5%，关税收入 每年能增加大约3000亿上下（vs 6月关税同比增加约210亿，年化后等效新增关税收入是2500亿美金）。 债务膨胀的结果是，当下利息支出已经是联邦财政支出的第二大开支项，严重挤压了其他开支的空间。尤其是从2024年自然年来看，狭义赤字开支1.1万 亿美金，与利息支 ...

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that global markets are under pressure due to current tariff issues, leading to increased volatility. Major US stock indices experienced pullbacks, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [1][3] - The TAMAMA technology index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen to 35.1, exceeding the 35 mark, indicating a high valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has further increased to 51.8, while the Nasdaq's P/E ratio stands at 42.5, both suggesting potential overvaluation [1][12] - The report highlights that the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at 38.12, significantly above historical averages, indicating that various sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials may face corrections due to high valuations and economic uncertainties [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines of 0.31%, 0.08%, and 1.02% respectively during the week [3][12] - Within the S&P 500, the energy sector had the highest increase at 2.48%, while the financial sector experienced the largest decline at 1.91% [12][16] European Market Performance - European markets showed mixed results, with the German DAX index increasing by 1.97%, while other indices like the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 also saw modest gains [9][10] - The report anticipates potential corrections in major European indices such as the CAC40, FTSE 100, DAX, and others due to high price-to-book ratios and economic pressures [1][9] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 0.93%, 0.91%, and 2.07% [4][24] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience further differentiation, with low-valuation assets that are less impacted by trade issues presenting structural buying opportunities amidst volatility [1][39] Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets displayed varied performance, with the Ho Chi Minh Index rising by 5.1%, while the Brazilian IBOVESPA index fell by 3.59% [11][39] - The report suggests that emerging markets may also face corrections due to economic fundamentals and uncertainties stemming from US trade policies [1][39] Key Economic Data - The report mentions that in May 2025, the Eurozone retail sales index grew by 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4][43] - In June 2025, Germany's CPI year-on-year growth was 2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.1%, while France's CPI increased to 1% from 0.7% [40][43]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 5 日 [Table_Title] 本周欧洲和亚太市场震荡，港股进一步波动 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周欧洲和亚太市场出现明显震荡，港 股出现进一步波动。本周美股市场延续反弹；另一方面，一些 交易日美股期指出现明显波动。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈 率上升至 34.9，市盈率处于偏高状态；费城半导体指数市盈率 迅速上升至 51.1，维持在 50 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重 占比较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率上升至 42.4，仍处于高于 40 的偏高位阶段，由于美股科技股估值处于偏高位区间存在杀估 值的可能性，以及美股科技股新一轮基本面看点还需等待，叠 加特朗普政策的不确定性影响，大型科技企业出现多次高管减 持，美股科技股仍然容易出现调整趋势；纳斯达克指数、费城 半导体指数和 TAMAMA 等美股科技指数仍然容易出现承压。 目前标普 500 席勒市盈率进一步上升至 38.31，标普 500 席勒市 盈率处于高位区间，仍然大幅高于历史平均数和中位数。此 外 ...

Market Overview - Global risk assets rebounded this week amid easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the dollar under pressure and non-dollar currencies strengthening [1] - The S&P 500 index rose 3.44% this week, closing at 6173.07 points, surpassing its previous historical closing high from February 19 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.82% to 43819.27 points, while the Nasdaq index gained 4.25% to 20273.46 points, also breaking its historical closing high from December 16, 2024 [1] U.S. Stock Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks led the gains in the U.S. market, with Nvidia rising 9.66% to a market capitalization of $3.85 trillion [1] - Other notable tech stocks included META (+7.52%), Google A (+7.14%), Amazon (+6.49%), Microsoft (+3.88%), Tesla (+0.51%), and Apple (+0.04%) [1] European Market Performance - European stock markets mostly rose, with the STOXX 600 index up 1.32%, Germany's DAX 30 up 2.92%, France's CAC 40 up 1.34%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.28% [1] Asia-Pacific Market Performance - The South Korean stock market rose 1.13% for the week, with a year-to-date increase of 27.36% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged 4.55%, surpassing 40,000 points for the first time since January 27 [2] - The Indian SENSEX 30 index increased by 2% over the week [2] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.26, marking five consecutive days of decline [2] - Non-dollar currencies rebounded, with the euro rising 1.7% against the dollar, the yen up approximately 1%, and the Swiss franc increasing by 2.3% [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell, with spot gold dropping below $3,330 per ounce, a two-week low, down 2.8% for the week [2] - WTI crude oil prices fell significantly, with a weekly decline of 11.88%, dropping below $66 per barrel [2] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline, with a weekly drop of 12.11%, closing at $66.34 per barrel [2] Employment Data Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, stabilizing the unemployment rate at 4.2% [4] - Analysts expect June's non-farm payrolls to slow to 120,000, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [4][5] - The job market indicators suggest potential downward trends, with leading indicators pointing towards a possible increase in unemployment rates in the coming years [5] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market has rebounded after a period of extreme risk aversion, with July historically being a strong month for stock performance [6] - The S&P 500's earnings per share growth is expected to follow the trend of overall corporate profits, with current EPS growth expectations at 7.5% [6] - However, the market's valuation remains high, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at levels seen in early March, indicating limited potential for further valuation increases [7]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 美股估值偏高，港股处于进一步分化阶段 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股市场延续反弹，周内部分交易 日的出现特斯拉等巨头日内波动偏多的态势。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 32.2，仍然处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城 半导体指数市盈率上升至 45.8，仍然处于 45 以上的高位区间； 美国科技股权重占比较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 39.9，逼近 40 的偏高位区间，由于美股科技股处于高位区间， 叠加美股科技股新一轮基本面拐点催化因素尚未出现，叠加特 朗普政策容易反复无常，美股科技股仍然容易出现分化和压 力；费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 仍然容易积累回调动能。目 前标普 500 席勒市盈率上升至 36.91，仍然显著高于历史平均数 和中位数。由于美国经济政策的不确定性，以及美股估值偏高 和基本面因素影响仍在，美股中金融、消费、通讯服务、工业 等行业面临进一步的压力。美股中不同的成长和价值行业中仍 然轮番会有 ...

美股市场一周表现：本周标普 500 指数、纳斯达克指数、道琼斯 工业指数全部上涨，涨幅分别为 1.5%、2.18% 和 1.17%。 证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 美股估值偏高，港股处于进一步分化阶段 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股市场延续反弹，周内部分交易 日的出现特斯拉等巨头日内波动偏多的态势。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 32.2，仍然处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城 半导体指数市盈率上升至 45.8，仍然处于 45 以上的高位区间； 美国科技股权重占比较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 39.9，逼近 40 的偏高位区间，由于美股科技股处于高位区间， 叠加美股科技股新一轮基本面拐点催化因素尚未出现，叠加特 朗普政策容易反复无常，美股科技股仍然容易出现分化和压 力；费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 仍然容易积累回调动能。目 前标普 500 席勒市盈率上升至 36.91，仍然显著高于历史平均数 和中位数。由于美国经济政策的不确定性，以及美 ...

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨包芳鸣 刘雪莹 北京时间5月2 0日，美股三大指数集体低开。 数据截至20日21:40 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌巾一 | | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 345.815 | 1.09% | | TSLA.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABE ... | 167.780 | -0.05% | | GOOG.O | | | | 脸书(META PLA ... | 636.305 | -0.64% | | META.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 204.660 | -0.73% | | AMZN.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 207.040 | -0.83% | | AAPL.O | | | | 微软(MICROSO ... | 454.930 | -0.86% | | MSFT.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 133.005 | -1.89% | | NVDA.O | | | 美股科技七巨头除特斯拉外悉数下跌。 美 国 国 债 收 益 率 继 续 攀 升，3 0 年 期 国 债 收 益 率 逼 近 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has seen six consecutive days of gains, nearing a bull market and only 3% away from its historical high [1] - Concerns arise after Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, leading to a potential "sell-off" pattern among global investors [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the downgrade was anticipated, and the market is better prepared compared to previous downgrades, resulting in less volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Fundstrat's Thomas Lee downplays the significance of the downgrade, stating it reflects known facts about the US deficit [4] - The current environment of declining interest rate expectations may mitigate the impact of the downgrade on US assets [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts could pressure the stock market if economic uncertainty persists [5] Group 3 - Retail investors have significantly increased their buying activity, with a record net purchase of $4.1 billion in US stocks on May 19 [6][8] - The influx of retail investment contrasts with institutional caution, leading to a divergence in market behavior [8][9] - The optimism among retail investors is attributed to a perceived easing of trade tensions, despite underlying risks [8][9] Group 4 - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warns of extreme complacency in the market, highlighting underestimation of risks related to the US deficit and tariffs [9] - Dimon predicts a potential decline in earnings forecasts, which could negatively impact stock prices [9][10] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor key factors such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve policies for future market direction [10][11] Group 5 - The current valuation of the US stock market is above 21 times earnings, which is considered high compared to other countries [11] - Future performance may depend on the progress of trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [11] - Analysts suggest that investors may need to balance their portfolios as the market approaches its historical highs [11]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 美股估值回到偏高位，港股短期将进一步分化 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股市场的反弹使得美股估值出现 明显上升。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率迅速上升至 32，已 经处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈率迅速上升至 46，已经处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比较大的 纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 39.8，临近 40 的偏高位区间，由于美 股科技股估值上升较快，叠加美股科技股新一轮题材风口尚未 出现，预计美股科技股 4 月中旬开始的超跌反弹已经进入中段 偏后环节，由于基本面和估值因素，叠加特朗普政策容易反复 无常，中期来看，反弹期之后美股科技股仍然容易出现回调。 目前标普 500 席勒市盈率迅速上升至 36.6，进一步大幅高于历 史平均数 17.24 和中位数 16.04。由于经济政策的不确定性，美 股估值较高且抬升太快和基本面因素影响仍在，美股中金融、 消费、工业等行业未来短期反弹空间将进一步减少 ...

1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股市场的反弹使得美股估值出现 明显上升。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率迅速上升至 32，已 经处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈率迅速上升至 46，已经处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比较大的 纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 39.8，临近 40 的偏高位区间，由于美 股科技股估值上升较快，叠加美股科技股新一轮题材风口尚未 出现，预计美股科技股 4 月中旬开始的超跌反弹已经进入中段 偏后环节，由于基本面和估值因素，叠加特朗普政策容易反复 无常，中期来看，反弹期之后美股科技股仍然容易出现回调。 目前标普 500 席勒市盈率迅速上升至 36.6，进一步大幅高于历 史平均数 17.24 和中位数 16.04。由于经济政策的不确定性，美 股估值较高且抬升太快和基本面因素影响仍在，美股中金融、 消费、工业等行业未来短期反弹空间将进一步减少，中期存在 进一步下跌的空间。美股中不同的成长和价值行业中仍然轮番 会有重要个股出现单日明显回调。本周不同欧洲市场涨跌不 一。由于容易受到美股的联动影响，美 ...