（来源：ETF炼金师） 上周，美股在美联储"鹰派"信号与降息预期不一致的背景下经历了明显的震荡，最终以收跌告终。标普 500指数下跌0.31%，而纳斯达克综合指数则下滑0.65%。美联储主席鲍威尔的评论，将美股估值视 为"相当高"，被市场广泛解读为对当前市场过热情绪的警示，导致依赖流动性的科技股面临压力。 来源：市场资讯 与此同时，市场上关于基金公司的限购调整动作频繁，尤其是美股宽基类QDII基金受到市场关注，多 只产品下调了单日申购额度。这一变化可能会影响投资者的申购策略及市场流动性，值得密切关注。 在通胀数据方面，8月核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数环比上涨0.2%，符合市场预期，缓解了周五 交易日的一部分市场情绪。尽管当前美股估值偏高，但市场依然对10月和12月的降息预期保持乐观，认 为美联储可能继续采取宽松政策。此外，鲍威尔在全球央行年会上强调需关注就业市场潜在的走弱风 险，为未来的政策调整留出了空间，市场对10月美股的走势依然持有一定的上行动能预期。 在QDII基金方面，上周整体折溢价水平小幅回升，特别是美股宽基类基金的表现尤为显著，平均上涨 达1.68%。此类基金的溢价回升，反映出市场对相关资产 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future of AI investment depends on market willingness to finance future dreams, with concerns about whether AI is a bubble or not [1][5] - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised to 3.8%, indicating strong consumer spending despite a weak job market, with business investment growing at 7.3% [1][2] - The strong consumer activity and stable prices provide the Federal Reserve with confidence to follow through with planned interest rate cuts, with a consensus among decision-makers for a gradual approach [3] Group 2 - Major tech companies are forming partnerships, such as Nvidia investing $100 billion in OpenAI, which creates a closed-loop funding system that boosts market confidence in the AI industry [3][4] - The AI sector has seen over $600 billion in investments over the past two years, but revenue remains low at approximately $35 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of such investments [4] - Historical context suggests that while AI has the potential to transform industries, the market may experience significant volatility, and not all early players will succeed [5]

该指标的准确性引发市场争论，有意见认为美国已减少对工厂及重型资产依赖，倾向科技、软件及数据 网络。亦有意见认为美国经济更多地建立于知识产权，国民生产总值不能捕捉有关改变。此外，据 Bespoke投资，标普500指数市销率已升至3.33倍，远高于科网股泡沫是的高位2.27倍，亦高于新冠后曾 升见的3.21倍。 格隆汇9月29日｜最新数据显示，衡量美股估值昂贵程度的"巴菲特指标"已飙升至约218%，创纪录新 高。该指标比较追踪所有上市美企市值的Wilshire 5000指数，以及美国GDP。巴菲特多年前曾指，当该 指标跌至70%至80%，入市可能获得厚利，若指标升至200%，入市如同玩火。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

美联储主席对股市估值的警告历来备受市场关注，但据摩根大通最新研究显示，此类警示对市场的实际影响往往有限。 鲍威尔本周在讲话中明确表示，尽管股票价格"估值相当高"，但这并非金融稳定风险升高的时期。他强调，进一步政策正常化的路径并非毫无风险。这一表 态延续了美联储主席对资产价格估值发出警示的传统。 据追风交易台，摩根大通分析显示，从1996年格林斯潘的"非理性繁荣"到本周鲍威尔表示股价"估值相当高"，美联储主席的估值担忧并未引发显著市场调 整。 据摩根大通，自1996年以来的历次美联储主席估值警告后，标普500指数在随后1个月、6个月和12个月内均未出现负收益。平均而言，警告后12个月的正收 益仅略低于警告前6个月的表现，市场增长放缓但仍保持上涨趋势。 历史上的美联储主席估值警告 摩根大通梳理了自1996年12月格林斯潘警告"非理性繁荣不当推高资产价值"以来的历次美联储主席估值警告。这些警告涵盖了不同的宏观经济环境，但大多 数发生在宽松货币政策时期。 伯南克曾在2013年5月警告过度风险承担，耶伦在2014年7月和2015年5月分别对特定行业和整体市场的高估值表达担忧。鲍威尔在疫情期间曾以相对术语讨 论估值问题， ...

每经编辑｜段炼 当地时间9月24日，美股连续第二个交易日下跌，投资者消化美联储主席鲍威尔前一天的谨慎表态，等待本周晚些时候发布的关键经济数据。 截至收盘，道指跌171.50点，跌幅0.37%，报46121.28点，纳指跌0.34%，报22497.86点，标普500指数跌0.28%，报6637.97点。全市超3300只股票下跌。 当地时间9月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔在一场经济展望会上表示，数据表明，近期经济增速有所放缓，失业率处于低位但略有上升。就业增长放缓，就业 下行风险上升，同时通胀上升且仍处于较高水平，风险平衡明显发生变化。鲍威尔还表示，从多个指标来看，当前美股股票价格的估值都相当高。 宣布与英伟达合作，阿里股价大涨 国际金价大跌，油价大涨 明星科技股表现分化，特斯拉涨4.0%，微软涨0.2%，亚马逊跌0.2%，苹果和英伟达跌0.8%，谷歌跌1.8%。甲骨文跌1.7%，有报道称该公司计划通过发行 公司债券筹集150亿美元资金。英特尔涨超6%，消息称公司正在寻求引入苹果投资。矿企业Lithium Americas飙升95.8%，消息称美国政府正考虑入股这家 加拿大公司。 | く 気方 | 知名美股 ○ O ...

美联储好不容易在今年9月份采取了降息的动作，但单次降息的幅度只有25个基点，低于市场的预期。接下来，美联储还会不会降息，取决于鲍威尔的态 度。 美联储选择在9月份降息，主要原因是8月非农数据远低于市场预期，同时通胀回升预期不明显，给了美联储降息的空间。但是，最近美联储鲍威尔的表态， 再一次给市场泼了一盆冷水。 一旦美联储正式步入新一轮的降息周期，那么将会促使部分资金流向股市、楼市，并推动这些资产价格的进一步上涨。不过，相比起美股市场，美联储降息 对新兴市场的刺激影响会更加显著，对美元来说，随着美元吸引力的下降以及资本的外流，会引发资金加速流向新兴市场，美元资产吸引力也会持续下降。 正如美联储鲍威尔所言，当前美股的估值相对偏高。其中，美股三大指数的平均估值均在30倍以上。其中，纳斯达克的估值更是达到了40倍以上。在美 股"七巨头"之中，包括谷歌、Meta在内的科技巨头，整体估值已经抬升至一个新的高度，七巨头中已经难见静态估值低于30倍的资产。苹果、微软、亚马逊 等巨头估值，也直接向40倍估值靠拢，七巨头的整体估值显得并不便宜。 美股估值偏高，未必影响美联储的降息预期。但是，鲍威尔的公开表态，相当于向美股市场释放 ...

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests the "Goldilocks" summer for investors may be ending, with potential risks triggering sharp stock market corrections [1] - Systemic risks may be released when negative growth and interest rate shocks overlap [1] - The probability of a significant rebound is low, as indicated by Goldman Sachs' equity asymmetry framework [1] Risk Factors - Market correction risks are increasing due to high US stock valuations and a weakening business cycle [1] - The market's "perfect pricing" leaves little room for error as the S&P 500 continues to reach record highs in 2025 [1] - Market structure imbalances exist, with US stock gains heavily reliant on a few large technology stocks and rising retail speculation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Current market sentiment is described as "cautiously optimistic in a high-risk era" by DWS's Chief Investment Officer Vincenzo Vedda [1] Group 1: Market Valuation and Performance - U.S. stock valuations are high, but the distribution of this year's "leading stocks" is more balanced compared to previous years, which is beneficial for the market [1] - The performance of companies in the S&P 500, excluding technology and financial sectors, may be disappointing [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Expected fiscal stimulus measures have not materialized as anticipated, and the outlook for public debt is increasingly viewed as an economic burden [1] - Current valuations of stocks and corporate bonds are generally high, indicating low tolerance for negative news, which could lead to rapid declines in asset prices if adverse information arises [1]

Group 1 - UBS has issued a rare "strongly bearish" stance on the US economy, dollar, and stock market, predicting a sharp slowdown in US GDP growth from 2.0% in Q2 to 0.9% by Q4, significantly below the consensus estimate of 1% [1] - UBS expects interest rates to decrease by 1% by the end of the year, which is double the market's expectations [1] - The firm maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar, noting that the US net investment position has reached -88% of GDP, indicating potential weakness [1] Group 2 - UBS highlights that despite investor skepticism about the economic slowdown, multiple indicators suggest it is inevitable, with a complacent attitude towards tariff risks evident in market performance [2] - Stifel analysts predict that the S&P 500 index may decline by up to 14% by the end of 2025, settling at 5500 points, while cautioning that high valuations may limit the impact of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Deutsche Bank warns that tariff increases and tightened immigration policies will negatively impact the US economy, raising inflation while weakening growth, but not leading to a recession [3] Group 3 - Jim Rogers has expressed a pessimistic view on the US stock market, stating that the next economic crisis will be the most severe he has ever witnessed, following a prolonged bull market since 2009 [4][5] - Rogers emphasizes concerns over US debt, suggesting that the perception of safety in US debt may change if the country's global leadership position diminishes [4][6] - As of August 13, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow up 1.04% and the S&P 500 reaching a new closing high, although many large tech stocks experienced declines [6]

Group 1 - The company's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 is expected to be between $70.2 million and $70.4 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 19%, significantly below analyst expectations of $104.3 million and approximately 33% lower than the company's previous guidance [1] - Adjusted operating losses are projected to be between $57.7 million and $59.9 million, nearly doubling the expected losses, which exacerbates the company's financial pressure and may impact investments in R&D and market expansion [1] - The CEO Tom Siebel described the revenue performance as "completely unacceptable," attributing it to significant sales restructuring disruptions and personal health issues, although he expects sales to improve in the second fiscal quarter [2] Group 2 - A recent monthly survey by Bank of America revealed that 91% of fund managers believe the U.S. stock market is overvalued, the highest level since 2001, indicating widespread concern over market valuations [3] - 49% of respondents consider emerging market stocks to be undervalued, the highest since February 2024, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards emerging markets for better investment opportunities [3] - The survey also highlighted that 45% of participants view the long position in the "seven giants" as the most crowded trade, with significant tail risks including trade wars leading to global recession and inflation hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [3]