格隆汇8月11日｜美国银行8月份全球基金经理调查显示，净91%的受访者认为美国股市估值过高，比例 创历史新高。调查显示，净49%的基金经理认为，新兴市场股票是估值最为低估，比例为2024年2月以 来的最高水平。 ...

编者按：高盛全球投资研究部宏观分析师最新表示，尽管市场出现各种波动，但这几点仍然成立：做多美国股票（偏向 科技股）；做多价值储存资产（黄金 / 白银 / 比特币）； 做空美元（规模适中）； 收益率曲线陡峭化交易（全球适 用）。 一、美股市场叙事 上周一走进办公室时，我原以为市场的主导话题会是美国劳动力市场新出现的疲软迹象。 但到周末时，情况已很明显，市场并未受到明显影响，非农就业报告也没有改变风险偏好。 我并不是说市场走势平稳，实际上，这更像是一场拉锯战，每天都有各自的故事 —— 但数据说明了一切。 也就是说：标普 500 指数收复了上周的全部失地，纳斯达克 100 指数再创历史新高。 事后看来，对于这种韧性，我提出三个假设： i. 本周（指截至8月10日这周，下同）又有新的人工智能刺激因素（例如，Palantir 全程走高，再涨 21%）。 ii. 尽管投机性需求在减弱，但更广泛的资本流动仍然健康…… 实际经济和企业的买盘活动都很活跃。 iii. 本周再次提醒我们一个永恒的真理：经济周期固然重要，但股市并非经济本身。 二、市场框架 从技术面来看，整体仍呈积极态势，但在交易界大幅增持风险资产之后，接下来的操作 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI warn that the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months due to high market valuations, rising inflation, slowing job growth, and weak consumer spending [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically poor-performing months for the S&P 500 index [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for the S&P 500 has exceeded 70, suggesting that the market may be "overheated" [1] Group 2: Options Market Insights - The cost of hedging against a market downturn is increasing, with the implied volatility premium for put options reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Q2 earnings season for U.S. stocks indicates that corporate earnings are robust, potentially alleviating concerns about the overheated market following record highs in stock prices [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Approximately one-third of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with about 83% exceeding analyst expectations, potentially marking the highest "surprise" ratio since Q2 2021 [1][4]. - Prior to the earnings season, the expected year-over-year earnings growth for S&P 500 companies was 2.8%, but the current overall growth rate has reached 4.5% [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The S&P 500 index has risen 28% since its low on April 8, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 also reaching record highs, as concerns over tariffs have diminished and investors return to the market [4]. - Companies like Alphabet, D.R. Horton, and Netflix have expressed optimism about their future prospects, with Alphabet citing increased demand for AI products [5]. - The labor market remains resilient, as evidenced by a decline in initial jobless claims for six consecutive weeks, which may reassure investors [5]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is approximately 22.5, compared to the 10-year average of 18.6, raising concerns about high valuations and limited margin for error [5][6]. - Companies failing to meet both earnings and revenue expectations are facing the most severe stock price penalties since Q3 2022 [6]. - There are signs of "bubble" behavior in the market, with meme stocks experiencing significant price increases reminiscent of the extreme investor enthusiasm seen in 2021 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shifted from panic to optimism over the past three months, but some strategists warn that the market may be overly optimistic given the uncertainties ahead [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Investors are feeling reassured by the framework agreement between the U.S. and China, leading to a generally optimistic market outlook regarding the continuation of tariff suspension measures [2]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% from its record high in February to the lows in April, but rebounded sharply after the announcement of tariff suspensions [2]. - The 50-day rebound since the April 8 low has been 19.8%, marking it as the ninth largest increase for the S&P 500 since 1950, indicating potential for further gains in the coming months [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The recent fiscal policy changes, including a projected increase of $3.4 trillion in government debt over the next decade, have raised concerns about the sustainability of economic growth and public debt levels [3]. - Analysts are questioning whether tariff revenues, which amounted to $15.6 billion in April alone, will significantly contribute to economic growth and help mitigate public debt increases over the next ten years [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - Some strategists suggest that the current stock market gains may have outpaced the underlying fundamentals, leading to considerations for reducing exposure in overvalued sectors, particularly small-cap stocks, industrials, and consumer discretionary [4]. - Investment recommendations include holding cash for potential market corrections or reallocating to sectors perceived as more attractive, such as technology, financials, energy, utilities, and communication services [4].

Core Viewpoint - The UK stock market remains troubled despite the Labour Party's political stability and investment opportunities, with the FTSE 100 index only rising 7% compared to 17% to 27% gains in Germany, Spain, and Italy during the same period [1] Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - The current growth momentum in the UK is fragile, with market skepticism about the Labour Party's ability to stimulate economic growth without increasing fiscal pressure [1] - Expectations of tax increases or expanded government borrowing are rising, prolonging pressure on the UK bond market [1] - The Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rate cuts contributes to ongoing investor doubts about the UK economy and stock market outlook [1][4] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Sentiment - The FTSE 350 index's price-to-earnings ratio has increased from 11.4 to 13, but it remains about 35% cheaper than the MSCI global index, making it one of the cheapest stock markets among developed markets [4] - Further valuation increases depend on improved earnings growth, which is hindered by high borrowing costs [4] - The market anticipates only three interest rate cuts from the Bank of England over the next year, with rates expected to remain at 3.5%, double that of the Eurozone [4] Group 3: Currency and Earnings Impact - The upcoming earnings season will be critical for assessing whether companies can overcome the headwinds from rising interest rates [8] - The significant appreciation of the British pound, which has risen 9.3% against the US dollar this year, may impact earnings, as approximately 75% of FTSE 100 companies' revenues come from overseas [8] Group 4: Broader Market Challenges - The UK market faces additional challenges, including liquidity issues, excessive regulation, and low domestic investor appetite for equities [11] - The trend of companies considering relocating their listings is contributing to the shrinking size of the UK stock market, with AstraZeneca reportedly evaluating a move to the US [11] - Institutional investor sentiment remains negative, with global investors reducing their holdings in UK assets by 4% as of June, and Citigroup downgrading the UK's rating from "overweight" to "neutral" due to weak earnings growth and less attractive valuations [11]

Group 1 - Investors are shifting capital from the US to Europe due to concerns over US policies and the stability of the European market, with over $100 billion flowing into European equity funds this year, a threefold increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The influx of foreign direct investment in Germany has surged over 100% to €46 billion in the first four months of this year, marking the highest level since 2022, while many German companies have withdrawn investments from the US [1] - The European Central Bank's interest rate cuts and significant investments in infrastructure and defense spending are making Europe increasingly attractive to investors [2] Group 2 - Despite the attractiveness of European markets, there are warnings that the current investment enthusiasm may be fleeting, as Europe faces pressure to improve regulations and fulfill spending commitments [2] - The recent rebound in the US stock market is testing investor confidence in choosing Europe, with the S&P 500 index rising 10% in the second quarter, narrowing the gap with European markets [3] - Analysts suggest that while US stocks have strong balance sheet support, European investment themes are more speculative, depending on the actual implementation of infrastructure plans in countries like Germany [3]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 23 日 股指期货：阶段性扰动阶段，大趋势不变 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周消息面事件较多，包括经济数据、LPR 发布，陆家嘴论坛、美联储议息会 议召开等。但最终市场走势下行，我们认为核心驱动在于，中东再生战事，陆家嘴论坛政策以行业政策为 主，因此在国内驱动缺乏利多，外部利空增加的环境下，行情重心回落。风格方面，在外部风险增加环境 下，风险偏好回落对小微盘股的扰动更为明显，成长风格跌幅更大。 近期市场对于小微盘交易拥挤担忧程度较大，而消息面因地缘扰动加剧，内部对冲有限，导致资金顺 势出现获利了结动作，带来行情的调整。对于当下的外部扰动消息，周末似乎仍有潜在升级可能，不过， 就像贸易战，对地缘事件的预测如同水中捞月，因此重预测不如重应对。我们认为基于当前的宏观基本面 趋势来看，今年股市依然是依靠拉估值带动的震荡走升行情。不过，目前市场估值并没有较高的安全边 际，小微盘的拥挤交易一旦转向，也容易出现一定的调整。因此我们认为后期行情上，继续保持多头心 态，但是须结合行情调整幅度（技术面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The internal policy drive is the main theme for stock indices in 2025. A series of policies are beneficial for enterprises to repair their balance sheets, promote the stable development of the real - economy, and steadily increase stock market valuations [1]. - The bond market previously relied on expectations of monetary policy and weak fundamentals due to tariffs. However, with the implementation of a package of measures and the Sino - US joint statement on tariff cuts, the bond market is expected to run bearishly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 15, the A - share market generally declined, with the Wind All - A down 1.14% and a trading volume of 1.19 trillion yuan. Credit demand in April was weak, with cumulative new RMB loans of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the financial regulatory authority will promote long - term capital to enter the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, net profit increased by about 4% year - on - year, and ROE is in the bottoming - out stage [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2.191 billion yuan. The bond market's previous support factors have changed. After the implementation of policies and the Sino - US tariff cut agreement, the bond market is expected to run bearishly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 15, IH decreased by 0.53%, IF by 0.89%, IC by 1.31%, and IM by 1.56% compared to May 14 [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On May 15, the Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 0.49%, the CSI 300 by 0.91%, the CSI 500 by 1.45%, and the CSI 1000 by 1.68% compared to May 14 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 15, TS decreased by 0.02%, TF by 0.02%, T increased by 0.02%, and TL increased by 0.15% compared to May 14 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On May 15, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by 1.32, 1.19, - 0.43, and - 0.65 respectively compared to May 14 [3]. 3.3 Market News - The People's Bank of China, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority plan to enrich the product types of the "Swap Connect". They will extend the contract term of interest rate swaps to 30 years and launch interest rate swap contracts based on the LPR [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the corresponding basis trend charts [7][8][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rate charts [14][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][23][25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the U.S. economy is not a safe haven amid economic slowdown, challenging previous assumptions about U.S. assets [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has experienced high volatility followed by a prolonged rally, yet its valuation remains optimistic, with the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio at 21 times, based on projected earnings growth of 10% and 14% for the next two years [3]. - There is a significant increase in the probability of a U.S. recession, rising from 22% in January to 53% in a recent CNBC survey, indicating growing concerns about economic slowdown [4]. - Supply chain data indicates a sharp decline in U.S. port import and export volumes, signaling challenges in foreign trade activities [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with the Conference Board's consumer expectations index reaching its lowest level since 2011, suggesting weakened consumer spending, a critical driver of U.S. economic growth [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is translating into real economic pain, complicating valuation analyses in the current economic environment [5]. - The notion that technology stocks and the dollar may no longer serve as safe havens during market turmoil is highlighted, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3].