东方金诚宏观研究 7 月财政收入端有所改善，支出端继续发力 —— 2025 年 7 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布的数据显示，2025 年 7 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 2.7%， 6 月为-0.3%；7 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 3.0%，6 月为 0.4%；1-7 月全国政府性 基金收入累计同比下降 0.7%，1-6 月为-2.4%；1-7 月全国政府性基金支出累计同比增长 31.7%，1-6 月为 30.0%。 主要观点：7 月广义财政收入同比增速从上月的 2.8%继续加快至 3.6%，广义财政支 出同比增速则较上月回落 5.5 个百分点至 12.1%，但处于两位数增长，显示收入端延续改 善，支出端则体现财政发力特征。往后看，下半年财政将继续发力支撑支出端，尤其是在 基建投资类。一方面，在上半年用于隐债置换的地方政府再融资专项债集中发行后，下半 年用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债将大规模发行；另一方面，预计下半年有可能上调 支持"两重"投资的超长期特别国债发行规模，用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债和国 企稳增长扩投资专项债发行额度也可能上调。另外，由于今年上半年财政前 ...

Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

Core Insights - Croatia's budget deficit rate increased in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 2.7%, which is a 0.6% rise compared to the previous quarter [1] - The average budget deficit rate for the Eurozone and EU countries was 2.9% in the first quarter [1] - Among the 19 Eurozone member states, 7 had budget deficit rates exceeding the 3% limit, with Romania having the highest at 7.5% [1] Public Spending and Revenue - In the first quarter, public spending as a percentage of GDP was 49.5% for the Eurozone and 49.1% for the EU, both showing a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - Public revenue as a percentage of GDP was 46.6% for the Eurozone and 46.2% for the EU [1] Budget Surplus - Seven EU member states reported budget surpluses in the first quarter, with Cyprus having the largest surplus at 5.6% of GDP [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's economy is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected growth rates of 4.4% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by agricultural recovery and strong domestic demand despite external uncertainties [1][2] Agricultural Sector - The 2024/2025 agricultural season is anticipated to see a grain production of 4.4 million tons, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [1] - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 [1] Non-Agricultural Sectors - The non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with industrial, construction, and service sectors as key drivers [2] - The secondary sector is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in both years, with specific growth rates of 4.2% and 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The construction sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by events like the Africa Cup in 2025 and the World Cup in 2030 [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is anticipated to be the core growth driver, with expected growth rates of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, contributing 5.8 and 5 percentage points to GDP respectively [2] - Household consumption is projected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, while government consumption is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to grow by 9.8% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, following a 10.9% increase in 2024 [2] Trade and External Factors - Net exports are expected to continue dragging down economic growth, with the trade deficit projected to rise from 19.1% of GDP in 2024 to 20.1% in 2026 [3] - The current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of 1.8% to 1.9% [3] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is projected to increase to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit rate expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026 [3] - Government debt is expected to improve, with domestic debt decreasing by 3 percentage points over three years [3] Monetary Policy - Non-financial sector credit is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with broad money supply growth remaining above 6% [3] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to cover five months of import needs [3]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the rising cost of U.S. debt remain significant, particularly with the upcoming budget negotiations in Congress [1] Group 1: Debt and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. budget is expected to be finalized within the next month before Congress recesses, maintaining worries about long-term bond yields [1] - Even with an anticipated $250-300 billion in tariff revenue, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 7% of GDP [1] - The likelihood of reducing the debt level in the short term is low, as the Trump administration is not expected to implement tax increases or substantial spending cuts [1] Group 2: Borrowing Costs - The only feasible way to lower the deficit appears to be through a significant decrease in borrowing costs [1]

Group 1: Economic Context - The current US-China tariff war has entered a temporary easing and negotiation phase, but high tariffs and Trump's unpredictable stance suggest a prolonged struggle ahead[1] - The outcome of the tariff war will ultimately depend on the economic resilience and fiscal space of both countries, as evidenced by historical conflicts[1] Group 2: Economic Impact of the Tariff War - Economic shocks from the tariff war can lead to growth declines and resource depletion, with the party that stabilizes its economy having a stronger negotiating position[2] - The tariff war has created a "triple whammy" for the US, prompting it to seek negotiations due to rising financial risks[2] Group 3: Fiscal Space Comparison - China's fiscal space is greater than that of the US, providing it with a stronger position in the tariff war[2] - Key indicators show that from 2004 to 2024, China's average fiscal deficit rate is 3.5%, while the US's is 6.0%[16] - As of 2024, China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is 60.9%, significantly lower than the US's 124.1%[15] Group 4: Debt and Financing Costs - China's government bond issuance rates are on a downward trend, with an average rate of 1.68% in May 2025, compared to the US's 4.29%[32] - In 2024, China's interest payments accounted for only 1.6% of GDP, while the US's was 3.8%, indicating a lower debt service burden for China[41] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Stability - China's current low inflation environment, with a CPI growth rate of -0.1% in May 2025, allows for greater fiscal expansion without the risk of high inflation[51] - In contrast, the US is experiencing higher inflation pressures, with a CPI growth rate of 2.4% in May 2025, complicating its fiscal situation[51]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, aims to reduce the fiscal deficit rate to below 4% before the end of President Trump's term [1] Group 1 - The current fiscal deficit rate is a significant concern for the U.S. government [1] - Achieving a fiscal deficit rate below 4% is seen as a critical goal for economic stability [1] - The statement reflects the administration's commitment to fiscal responsibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fiscal expansion planned for 2025, highlighting a target deficit rate of 4.0%, which is the highest in recent years, with a year-on-year increase in the deficit scale of 39.4%, marking the largest growth in the past decade [1][5][6]. Group 1: Narrow Fiscal Expansion - The target deficit scale for 2025 is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a 39.4% increase compared to the previous year, which is the highest growth rate in ten years [5][6]. - The central government's deficit ratio is expected to rise to 86% in 2025, up from 66% in 2019, indicating a trend of increasing central government responsibility for fiscal deficits [1][8]. - Transfer payments from the central government to local governments are projected to exceed the central government's revenue target, demonstrating a shift in fiscal support dynamics [1][8]. Group 2: Broad Fiscal Expansion - The broad deficit rate for 2025 is estimated to be between 8.6% and 9.3%, higher than the 8.0% rate in 2024, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending [2][15]. - The expected growth rate of broad spending is approximately 8.3%, compared to 2.7% in the previous year, suggesting a more aggressive fiscal policy approach [2][15]. - The fiscal authorities have indicated that there is room for further fiscal expansion to address potential uncertainties in the economic environment [2][19]. Group 3: Quasi-Fiscal Deficit Rate - The quasi-fiscal deficit rate, which includes factors such as policy banks and local government financing, is projected to be between 18.4% and 19.1%, an increase from 17.5% in the previous year [3][21]. - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in the first two months of the year has reached a high level, suggesting a favorable environment for increased financing [3][21]. - The dynamic adjustment of high-risk debt regions is expected to open new financing opportunities for local governments that meet the criteria for exiting high-risk status [3][21]. Group 4: Debt Management and Cash Flow Improvement - The government's efforts to clear corporate debts are expected to improve cash flow and credit conditions for businesses, enhancing their financing capabilities [4][25][28]. - The introduction of policies aimed at addressing overdue payments to enterprises is anticipated to stimulate economic activity and support small and medium-sized enterprises [4][25][30]. - The focus on resolving overdue payments is part of a broader strategy to enhance the financial health of the corporate sector and stimulate growth [4][25][30]. Group 5: Fiscal Rhythm and Timing - The fiscal rhythm for 2025 is expected to differ significantly from the previous two years, with a notable increase in government bond net financing in the first quarter [3][23][24]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is anticipated to accelerate in the second quarter, aligning with the government's economic priorities [3][23][24]. - The early issuance of bonds indicates a proactive approach by the central government to stimulate economic activity [3][23][24].

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[4] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 83 percentage points from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[4] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4% year-on-year, driven by increased spending in social security and health sectors[4] - Infrastructure spending decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in urban community and agricultural water affairs expenditures[4] Fund and Policy Outlook - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure surging by 74.2%, significantly outpacing local government growth of 0.6%[4] - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio, enhancing expenditure intensity, and accelerating spending progress throughout the year[4]

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[5] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a significant drop of 83 percentage points from the previous month[5] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[5] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4%, reflecting a focus on social security and health spending[5] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure soaring by 74.2%, contrasting with a mere 0.6% increase at the local level[5] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio and expenditure intensity, with plans for special bond issuance to accelerate spending[5] - There is an emphasis on supporting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in social security and employment sectors[5] - The central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space to potentially introduce incremental policies throughout the year based on changing internal and external conditions[5]