Core Insights - Moody's has maintained Côte d'Ivoire's sovereign rating at Ba2 with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic and fiscal development trajectory ahead of the presidential elections [2] Economic Outlook - Moody's forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.6% for Côte d'Ivoire in 2025-2026, driven by the effective implementation of national development plans, increased private investment in strategic sectors (oil, minerals, air transport), and improved government governance [2] - Public fiscal revenue is expected to reach 18% of GDP by 2025, supported by high gold prices and increased oil production, with the fiscal deficit projected to decrease to 2.5% [2] Regional Context - The security situation in West Africa is expected to stabilize as three Sahel countries officially exit the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) in 2024 [2] Risks - Despite positive economic indicators, Côte d'Ivoire faces ongoing political and social risks, including high youth unemployment, increasing regional development disparities, and weak education and healthcare social safety nets, which could lead to social unrest [2] - Moody's indicated that a further upgrade in the rating could be considered if Côte d'Ivoire continues to improve social indicators without increasing the fiscal deficit [2]

法国新任总理勒科尔尼26日说，法国政府计划在2026年把财政赤字率控制在国内生产总值的4.7%，并 在2029年进一步降低至约3%。 法国国家统计和经济研究所25日发布的数据显示，法国公共债务在今年二季度进一步攀升，达到国内生 产总值的115.6%，约为3.4万亿欧元。 法国2025年财政预算目标是把财政赤字率降低到国内生产总值的5.4%。今年7月，时任总理贝鲁公布 2026年财政预算草案，目标包括削减财政支出438亿欧元，并将赤字率降至国内生产总值的4.6%。但草 案提出的一些紧缩举措引发巨大争议。贝鲁9月8日在国民议会信任投票中未能过关，被迫辞职。时任国 防部长勒科尔尼次日被任命为总理。 勒科尔尼当天接受《巴黎人报》专访，介绍2026年财政预算草案的主要内容。他说，2026年通过削减日 常财政支出可节省60亿欧元。政府还将加强对社会支出和地方政府开支的管控，就打击税务和社保欺诈 出台法案。同时，政府将加大民生投入，计划增加60亿欧元养老金预算、50亿欧元医疗卫生预算。 （文章来源：新华社） 他表示，将在10月国民议会秋季例会期间，将2026年财政预算草案提交议会讨论审议。草案吸纳与工 会、雇主组织及主要政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a proactive fiscal policy to support high-quality economic development, with sufficient room for future fiscal policy adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, stated that the government's debt level is within a reasonable range, with a total debt of 92.6 trillion yuan and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7% as of the end of last year [1]. - The government plans to issue 5 trillion yuan in special bonds to inject capital into large commercial banks, which is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [2]. - Over the past two years, 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds have been allocated to promote "two重" construction [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Strength and Expenditure - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the fiscal deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 4%, with new local government special bond quotas totaling 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4]. - The national fiscal strength has significantly increased during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with general public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, a 19% increase from the previous five-year period [6]. - Total public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Public Spending - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," nearly 100 trillion yuan has been allocated for social welfare, with significant investments in education (20.5 trillion yuan), social security (19.6 trillion yuan), healthcare (10.6 trillion yuan), and housing security (4 trillion yuan) [7]. - The government has also allocated 1 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 million yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education [7]. Group 4: Economic Contribution and Stability - Over the past four years, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%, with an average economic growth rate of 5.5% [8]. - The central government has arranged nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments during the "14th Five-Year Plan," ensuring stable local fiscal operations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a proactive fiscal policy to support high-quality economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with ample room for future fiscal policy adjustments [1][4]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance the continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight of fiscal policies, ensuring timely adjustments in response to changing economic conditions [1][2]. - A special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan is aimed at injecting capital into major commercial banks, which is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [2]. Fiscal Measures and Investments - Over the past two years, 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds have been allocated to promote "two重" construction, with a total of 19.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds arranged over five years to support 150,000 construction projects [3]. - The fiscal deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with over 10 trillion yuan in new tax reductions and refunds [3]. Fiscal Strength and Expenditure - The national fiscal strength has significantly improved, with general public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan (approximately 19%) compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [5]. - Total public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the previous five-year period [5]. Social Welfare and Public Spending - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," nearly 100 trillion yuan has been allocated for social welfare, including 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, and 10.6 trillion yuan for health care [6]. - The government has also allocated 1 trillion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 billion yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education [6]. Economic Contribution and Growth - Over the past four years, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%, with an average economic growth rate of 5.5% [7][8]. - The central government has arranged nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments during the "14th Five-Year Plan," ensuring stable local fiscal operations [9].

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]

Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

Core Insights - Croatia's budget deficit rate increased in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 2.7%, which is a 0.6% rise compared to the previous quarter [1] - The average budget deficit rate for the Eurozone and EU countries was 2.9% in the first quarter [1] - Among the 19 Eurozone member states, 7 had budget deficit rates exceeding the 3% limit, with Romania having the highest at 7.5% [1] Public Spending and Revenue - In the first quarter, public spending as a percentage of GDP was 49.5% for the Eurozone and 49.1% for the EU, both showing a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - Public revenue as a percentage of GDP was 46.6% for the Eurozone and 46.2% for the EU [1] Budget Surplus - Seven EU member states reported budget surpluses in the first quarter, with Cyprus having the largest surplus at 5.6% of GDP [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's economy is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected growth rates of 4.4% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by agricultural recovery and strong domestic demand despite external uncertainties [1][2] Agricultural Sector - The 2024/2025 agricultural season is anticipated to see a grain production of 4.4 million tons, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [1] - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 [1] Non-Agricultural Sectors - The non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with industrial, construction, and service sectors as key drivers [2] - The secondary sector is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in both years, with specific growth rates of 4.2% and 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The construction sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by events like the Africa Cup in 2025 and the World Cup in 2030 [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is anticipated to be the core growth driver, with expected growth rates of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, contributing 5.8 and 5 percentage points to GDP respectively [2] - Household consumption is projected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, while government consumption is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to grow by 9.8% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, following a 10.9% increase in 2024 [2] Trade and External Factors - Net exports are expected to continue dragging down economic growth, with the trade deficit projected to rise from 19.1% of GDP in 2024 to 20.1% in 2026 [3] - The current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of 1.8% to 1.9% [3] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is projected to increase to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit rate expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026 [3] - Government debt is expected to improve, with domestic debt decreasing by 3 percentage points over three years [3] Monetary Policy - Non-financial sector credit is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with broad money supply growth remaining above 6% [3] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to cover five months of import needs [3]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the rising cost of U.S. debt remain significant, particularly with the upcoming budget negotiations in Congress [1] Group 1: Debt and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. budget is expected to be finalized within the next month before Congress recesses, maintaining worries about long-term bond yields [1] - Even with an anticipated $250-300 billion in tariff revenue, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 7% of GDP [1] - The likelihood of reducing the debt level in the short term is low, as the Trump administration is not expected to implement tax increases or substantial spending cuts [1] Group 2: Borrowing Costs - The only feasible way to lower the deficit appears to be through a significant decrease in borrowing costs [1]

Group 1: Economic Context - The current US-China tariff war has entered a temporary easing and negotiation phase, but high tariffs and Trump's unpredictable stance suggest a prolonged struggle ahead[1] - The outcome of the tariff war will ultimately depend on the economic resilience and fiscal space of both countries, as evidenced by historical conflicts[1] Group 2: Economic Impact of the Tariff War - Economic shocks from the tariff war can lead to growth declines and resource depletion, with the party that stabilizes its economy having a stronger negotiating position[2] - The tariff war has created a "triple whammy" for the US, prompting it to seek negotiations due to rising financial risks[2] Group 3: Fiscal Space Comparison - China's fiscal space is greater than that of the US, providing it with a stronger position in the tariff war[2] - Key indicators show that from 2004 to 2024, China's average fiscal deficit rate is 3.5%, while the US's is 6.0%[16] - As of 2024, China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is 60.9%, significantly lower than the US's 124.1%[15] Group 4: Debt and Financing Costs - China's government bond issuance rates are on a downward trend, with an average rate of 1.68% in May 2025, compared to the US's 4.29%[32] - In 2024, China's interest payments accounted for only 1.6% of GDP, while the US's was 3.8%, indicating a lower debt service burden for China[41] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Stability - China's current low inflation environment, with a CPI growth rate of -0.1% in May 2025, allows for greater fiscal expansion without the risk of high inflation[51] - In contrast, the US is experiencing higher inflation pressures, with a CPI growth rate of 2.4% in May 2025, complicating its fiscal situation[51]