国债衍生品周报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The current upward and downward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures is limited. On one hand, economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating insufficient domestic demand, which provides strong support for treasury bond futures in the long - term. On the other hand, there is no strong need for further policy tightening this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, limiting the upward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures. Due to tax period factors, capital liquidity fluctuations have intensified, and market interest rates have rebounded in the short - term, with the central bank mainly conducting net injections in the open market. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2512**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak; View: oscillatory consolidation; Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined yesterday. Upward and downward kinetic energy is limited. Economic data weakness supports long - term easing and treasury bond futures, but short - term policy rate cut is unlikely, and capital liquidity fluctuations and central bank net injections affect the market, resulting in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。受益于流动性宽松、政策增量减弱、股市回调、地缘因素 避险等多方面影响，本周前两日国债期货均小幅反弹。不过目前国债期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report From November 4th to November 10th, the bond market seller sentiment declined slightly, the buyer sentiment turned negative, the divergence of seller views decreased, the bond market lacked a main driving force, and the sentiment was cautious [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment - **Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index**: From November 4th to November 10th, the unweighted sentiment index was 0.48, a decrease of 0.06 compared to October 28th - November 3rd. Most institutions held a bullish view, with 15 bullish, 10 neutral, and 2 bearish. 56% of institutions were bullish, believing in monetary policy easing and a decline in investor risk - appetite; 37% were neutral, seeing a tug - of - war between factors and range - bound bond yields; 7% were bearish, citing economic improvement and stock market pressure on bonds [5][12]. - **Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index**: From November 4th to November 10th, the unweighted sentiment index was - 0.04, lower than the previous period. Institutions were neutral - bearish overall, with 3 bullish, 20 neutral, and 4 bearish. 11% of institutions were bullish, based on weak economic data expectations and reasonable bond value; 74% were neutral, concerned about policy uncertainties; 15% were bearish, due to expected economic improvement and supply pressure [6][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength, but attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - US game and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [8] - In the long - term, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the synergy of monetary and fiscal policies and the low - interest - rate environment, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an obvious repair, with relatively balanced increases in various maturity varieties. In the first half of the week, the repair of 3 - 7y Treasury bonds was more significant; in the second half, the repair of ultra - long - term yields was more prominent [4] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected this week but released a cautious signal, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut at the end of the year [4] - The China - US summit in Busan, South Korea reached a series of important consensuses in the economic and trade field, which was interpreted by the market as "good news exhausted", bringing a window period for bond repair and stock market adjustment [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), and the relationship between various interest rates and yields such as LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [10][12][18] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of Treasury bond futures for different maturities (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [44][52][59][65]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term view on TL2512 is that it will be in a state of shock, the medium - term view is also shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall reference view is shock. The core logic is that yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. Macro data in September such as inflation and finance were still weak, and the lack of effective domestic demand persists. A loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize demand, so the long - term policy easing expectation provides strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is difficult to be fulfilled, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For TL2512, short - term: shock; medium - term: shock; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: shock. Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation exists [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For TL, T, TF, and TS, intraday view: shock - biased upward; medium - term view: shock; overall reference view: shock. Core logic: yesterday's Treasury bond futures were in shock consolidation. September macro data showed weakness, and there is a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary policy is needed in the long - term, providing support for Treasury bond futures. But the short - term necessity for an interest rate cut is not strong, and the short - term upward momentum is limited. Short - term Treasury bond futures will be in bottom - shock consolidation [5].

Group 1 - The bond market has recently shown signs of a mild rebound, driven by improved market sentiment due to trade tensions and a cooling equity market [2][7] - The rebound is attributed to three main factors: sufficient emotional clearance, stable funding conditions, and a return of easing expectations [5][18] - The "bond market micro trading thermometer" indicated a low reading of below the 30% percentile on October 10, suggesting that negative market sentiment has been largely priced in [3][10] Group 2 - Funding rates have remained stable, providing a "anchor point" for the bond market, which has historically limited the extent of bond yield increases during stable funding periods [4][11] - The cumulative increase in the 10-year government bond yield from July to September was at a historically high level during stable funding conditions, indicating a potential constraint on further increases [11][12] - Recent trade tensions have led to a mild recovery in expectations for monetary policy easing, as reflected in the decline of the one-year FR007 swap spread from +7bp to -3bp [5][18] Group 3 - The report anticipates a downward potential of around 10bp for the 10-year government bond yield, with a lower limit potentially testing 1.70% [5][18] - Despite the rebound, inflation lag and the trend of social financing rebound remain, indicating that the bond market opportunities should be approached with a rebound mindset [5][18] - The market's emotional structure is conducive to technical recovery, as the recent changes in sentiment and funding conditions create a favorable environment for bond market performance [3][4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a 14-year high, is primarily driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside strong industrial demand and a supply-demand imbalance in the silver market [3][5][7]. Group 1: Silver Price Performance - On September 26, international silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, marking a 14-year high since 2010 [3]. - In 2024, the average silver price is projected to be $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [3]. - Over the past six months, spot silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 30%, with a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities and gold, which rose by 43% [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Recent economic indicators show that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [5]. - The non-farm employment data has been revised down by 911,000 over the past year, averaging a monthly shortfall of 76,000 jobs [5]. - These labor market weaknesses provide a strong basis for the Federal Reserve to consider further interest rate cuts, with expectations of a total reduction of 75 basis points this year and one cut next year [5][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver remains robust, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, leading to a supply-demand gap [7]. - Global silver supply is expected to grow by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces in 2025, while total demand is projected to decrease by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, resulting in a supply shortfall of 117.6 million ounces [7]. - The low inventory environment and persistent supply-demand imbalance amplify price volatility, with speculative inflows and fundamental support contributing to silver's stronger price resilience compared to gold [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing transition to green energy and the global digitalization process, combined with accommodative monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, are likely to continue supporting silver prices [7]. - Silver is expected to maintain its medium to long-term investment value, with potential for further price increases [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, reaching $3750, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [1] - It highlights the importance of monitoring key events such as speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and PCE data, which are expected to influence short-term gold price movements [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by the onset of a global rate-cutting cycle and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting a solid foundation for a bull market in gold [5] Group 2 - The company, Lingfeng Precious Metals, emphasizes its commitment to providing secure and transparent trading services, holding a top-tier trading license and adhering to strict regulations [1] - The MT4 trading system offered by Lingfeng is noted for its stability, efficiency, and user-friendliness, allowing investors to execute trades with millisecond order execution speeds [2] - Lingfeng's mobile app facilitates easy trading for investors, enabling them to capture opportunities in the gold market regardless of their location, thus simplifying the trading process for both experienced and novice investors [5]

Market Overview - The US dollar index continued its rebound, reaching a daily high of 97.81 before closing up 0.33% at 97.67, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - Spot gold surged by $50 from its low, closing up 1.12% at $3685.47 per ounce, achieving its fifth consecutive weekly gain [1] - Spot silver closed up 2.94% at $43.03 per ounce [1] Key News Summary - The US dollar index rose on Friday, with Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggesting continued rate cuts in the coming months, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari advocating for two more rate cuts this year, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [2] - The US House Republican funding bill failed to pass in the Senate, increasing the risk of government shutdown and exacerbating market volatility due to partisan divisions [2] - The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued, with Trump planning discussions with Arab leaders regarding a ceasefire in Gaza and Israeli officials seeking to expand sovereignty in the West Bank [2] - Citigroup raised its three-month gold price target to $3800 per ounce, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for gold prices [2] Trading Strategy - Expectations of monetary policy easing, combined with political and geopolitical uncertainties, are providing upward momentum for gold and silver prices [3] - Technically, New York gold is supported around $3550 and may test the $3800 level, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, could see upward movement towards $45 after breaking through $43 [3] - Overall, any pullbacks present buying opportunities, as gold and silver remain in a long-term bullish market trend [3]