印尼经济统筹部长艾尔朗加·哈尔塔托则表示，该协定标志着双边关系进入新的历史阶段，预计将催生 更多公平与可持续的贸易与投资合作。 农产品贸易空间或显著扩大 新华财经雅加达9月24日电（记者冯钰林）印度尼西亚和欧盟23日在巴厘岛正式签署《印尼-欧盟全面经 济伙伴关系协定》（IEU-CEPA），印尼成为继新加坡和越南之后，第三个与欧盟签署全面经济伙伴关 系协定的东南亚国家。分析认为，在全球贸易摩擦加剧的背景下，各国都在积极寻求多元化贸易渠道， 该协定作为应对策略应运而生。在显著降低关税壁垒的条件下，农业领域有望成为双方合作亮点。 全球贸易形势推动达成"近零关税"协定 该协定谈判始于2016年，双方历经19轮正式谈判及多次会谈，于今年7月达成政治协议。印尼经济统筹 部在声明中表示，协定涵盖货物、服务和投资等领域的贸易自由化。货物贸易方面，双方承诺取消超过 98%的关税税目和占进口总额99%的关税。协定生效的目标时间为2027年1月1日。 在印尼经济与法律研究中心执行主任比玛·尤迪斯提拉·阿迪内加拉看来，协定的签署恰逢其时，美国关 税政策造成的不确定性促使双方通过协定寻求贸易确定性，印尼和欧洲都需要寻找替代市场。金融咨 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign trade has shown remarkable resilience and competitiveness during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, achieving significant growth despite facing unexpected challenges [1][2] Group 1: Trade Growth and Achievements - By 2024, China's goods trade volume is projected to reach $6.16 trillion, exceeding the target of $5.1 trillion set in the business development plan [1] - The share of exports from private enterprises increased from 56% at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 64.8% in 2024 [1] - The proportion of imports and exports with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative exceeds 50% [1] Group 2: Trade Innovation and New Business Models - The share of self-owned brand exports has risen to 21.8% [1] - Cross-border e-commerce pilot zones now cover over 90% of provincial-level administrative regions, with more than 2,500 overseas warehouses totaling over 30 million square meters [1] Group 3: Trade Liberalization - In 2024, the overall import tariff level in China is expected to decrease to 7.3%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - China has signed 23 free trade agreements with 30 countries and regions, with trade volume with free trade partners expected to account for 43% of total imports and exports in 2024 [2] Group 4: Import Market Dynamics - China's total imports are projected to exceed 18 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's second-largest import market for 16 consecutive years [2] - The expanding Chinese market is increasingly welcoming a variety of imported products, enhancing the quality of life for its citizens [2]

Core Viewpoint - The WTO is facing unprecedented challenges due to unilateral actions by the U.S., leading to concerns about the future of the global trade system, with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasizing the need for reform and resilience in the current trade framework [1][2]. Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The average U.S. tariff rate has increased from 2.4% at the beginning of the year to 18.4% following recent agreements [1]. - Approximately 72% of global goods trade is still operating under basic "Most-Favored-Nation" tariff conditions, a decrease from 80% at the start of the year [2]. - Despite the challenges, global goods trade is projected to grow by 0.9% this year, an improvement from earlier predictions of a 0.2% contraction [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The U.S. is experiencing economic risks, with the average actual tariff rate reaching 17.4%, the highest since 1935 [3]. - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down, with annualized growth rates projected to drop from over 3% in Q2 to 1.2%-1.3% in Q3 and Q4 [3]. - The potential for further U.S. dollar depreciation exists, which could lead to prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - The new tariff policies are anticipated to reduce the openness of the U.S. economy, with a projected 1.7 percentage point decrease in the share of goods exports in GDP by 2030 [4]. - A decline in economic openness is generally associated with reduced productivity, raising concerns about the long-term impact of protectionist policies on global economic growth [4].

Group 1 - WTO analysis indicates that approximately 72% of global goods trade still operates under basic "Most Favored Nation" tariff conditions, a decrease from 80% at the beginning of the year, and this percentage may continue to decline [1][4] - The global goods trade volume is projected to grow by 0.9% this year, which is significantly lower than the pre-tariff prediction of 2.7%, but an improvement from the April forecast of a 0.2% contraction [3] - The average actual tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 17.4%, the highest level since 1935, due to new tariffs implemented this year [6] Group 2 - The global trade system is undergoing a stress test, with the U.S. facing economic downturn risks, and the growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.2%-1.3% in the third and fourth quarters from over 3% in the second quarter [6][7] - The U.S. economy's slowdown is largely seen as temporary compared to other developed economies, but risks remain, including potential further depreciation of the dollar and a slowdown in productivity growth [7] - The new tariff policies are expected to reduce the openness of the U.S. economy, with projections indicating a 1.7 percentage point decrease in the share of goods exports in GDP by 2030 compared to earlier forecasts [7]

美智库专家：关税蚕食自身利益，美国并未开启贸易新秩序 他表示，美国的贸易伙伴们依然致力于支持全球贸易体系，同时也愿意对其进行改革，但并不会像美国 一样，以单边和交易的方式行事。如果其他国家继续遵守规则，将使美国陷入只属于自己的圈子。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 中新网8月21日电(记者 张乃月)今年8月初，美国贸易代表格里尔称美国正在打造名为"特恩贝里体系"的 所谓"对等关税"贸易体系，并称美国总统特朗普的做法带来了"改革全球贸易体系的成功"。然而，美国 对外关系委员会贸易政策研究员伊努·马纳克日前在英国《金融时报》撰文指出，美国实际上并没有主 导新贸易体系的创建，而是在剥夺自己从现有贸易体系享有的好处。 马纳克直言，掀起关税风波后，美政府甚至没有实现自己设定的"90天达成90项协议"的目标。截至目 前，达成的贸易协议仅覆盖美国不到一半的贸易额。 他认为，已有协议中提出的"降低关税、在非关税壁垒上合作、外国伙伴承诺投资美国"等内容并没有政 府声称得那么重要，其关税政策尚未带来真正的经济成果，而且与过去几十年持续贸易谈判所实现的大 规模市场开放相去甚远。 马纳克援引彼得森国际经济研究所研究称，二战后贸易自由 ...

Market Developments - The U.S. President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board to fill the vacancy left by the sudden resignation of Adrienne Kugler [1] - The White House signed an executive order allowing 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets for better returns and diversification [1] - The International Chamber of Commerce stated that the new U.S. tariff measures significantly increase complexity for businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and called for clearer execution guidelines [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly above market expectations [2] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported a 1.9% month-on-month decline in industrial output for June, the lowest level since May 2020, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariffs [3] - Germany's exports in June increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, driven by strong demand from China and the EU, ending a two-month decline [3] - The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year due to ongoing economic challenges [3] - Japan's government revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and persistent inflation [5] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 224.48 points to 43,968.64, a decline of 0.51%; the S&P 500 dropped by 5.06 points to 6,340.00, a decrease of 0.08%; while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 73.27 points to 21,242.70, an increase of 0.35% [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.44% to $3,482.70 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.66% to $38.53 per ounce [7] - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude futures down by $0.47 to $63.88 per barrel, and Brent crude futures down by $0.46 to $66.43 per barrel [7] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.23% to 98.400, with the euro trading at 1.1622 against the dollar and the pound at 1.3410 [8] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1777 against the dollar, appreciating by 123 basis points from the previous trading day [8]

Core Viewpoint - The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has expressed concerns regarding the new round of tariff measures implemented by the United States, highlighting the increased complexity and burden on businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 1: Impact on Businesses - The new tariff regulations significantly complicate operations for businesses, making it difficult for export companies to determine applicable tax rates [1] - Even multinational companies with robust compliance systems are facing challenges due to the operational confusion and execution uncertainty brought about by the new tariffs [1] Group 2: Call for Clarity - The ICC has called on the U.S. government to provide clearer execution guidelines to alleviate the burdens imposed by the new tariff measures [1] Group 3: Global Trade Context - Despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, global trade continues to operate under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, with several economies signaling positive moves towards trade liberalization [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to implement a new round of tariffs on various countries, including 35% on goods from Canada, 50% from Brazil, 25% from India, and 39% from Switzerland, effective August 7 [1] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934 [3] Group 2 - The new U.S. tariff policy is expected to reduce trade volume as it increases costs for imported goods, leading to a decrease in exports to the U.S. from other countries [4] - The tariffs are likely to raise domestic prices of goods in the U.S., contributing to inflation, although the extent of this impact remains uncertain [4] - The U.S. is predicted to experience a decline in its position in global trade due to the establishment of high trade barriers, which will reduce trade interactions with other countries [4] - Countries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. will face significant impacts on their trade [4] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. has oscillated between protectionism and liberal trade policies, with current shifts being driven by perceived national interests and challenges faced by the U.S. [5] - The U.S. has reverted to protectionist policies after a long period of advocating for trade liberalization, which may be detrimental to both the U.S. and the global economy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the full island closure operation in Hainan signifies a new phase in the construction of the free trade port, enhancing international connectivity and facilitating a new round of open-up dividends [1][2] - The closure will transform Hainan into a special customs supervision area, allowing for "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island," which promotes local high-quality development while maintaining control [1][2] - The "zero tariff" policy will expand from 1,900 to 6,600 categories, covering 74% of goods, significantly reducing corporate costs, particularly benefiting high-end manufacturing and biomedicine industries [1] Group 2 - The processing and value-added policies will lower the threshold for benefits, expanding the scope of beneficiaries and supporting the cultivation of industrial chains and clusters [2] - The establishment of a regional offshore trade center will enable companies to operate global orders without actual transit, significantly reducing transaction costs for international trade enterprises [2] - Traditional advantageous industries, such as tourism retail, will benefit from increased duty-free shopping limits and "zero tariff" policies, attracting more international visitors [3] Group 3 - The closure operation is a long-term task that requires continuous improvement and adaptation to form a policy system compatible with a high-level free trade port [3] - Hainan's free trade port closure is a significant move for China's expansion in the context of rising global protectionism, aiming to become a key gateway for China's new era of opening up [3]

Core Insights - The announcement of Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date on December 18, 2025, marks a significant opportunity for various industries, particularly tourism and retail [1][4]. Industry Summaries Tourism Industry - The closure policy will facilitate smoother and freer international exchanges, enhancing Hainan's position as an international tourism consumption center and promoting long-term development of the tourism industry [1][4]. - The continued implementation of duty-free policies will maintain Hainan's competitive advantage, attracting more visitors and boosting the overall development of the tourism retail market [1][4]. Retail Industry - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan is expected to see new growth opportunities post-closure, with optimized duty-free policies attracting more consumers [1][4]. Airport Industry - The airport sector will benefit from the expansion of international routes and infrastructure upgrades, leading to significant growth in passenger and cargo throughput in Hainan during 2025-2026 [1][4]. Real Estate Industry - Hainan's real estate market, particularly in high-end residential and tourism-related properties, is anticipated to gain more attention following the closure [4]. Related Companies - China Duty Free Group (1880.HK): Expected to benefit from duty-free policies, with a potential recovery in profitability due to supportive policies and increased consumer traffic [5]. - Meilan Airport (0357.HK): Structural opportunities from Hainan Free Trade Port development and innovation in non-aviation business models are likely to drive performance improvements [5].