投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 资金博弈剧烈，价格承压下行 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:情绪悲观，价格下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量微降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。行业开工率为74.66%，比13日-0.34个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.03%，比 | | | | 13日-0.53个百分点。本周1条生产线放水冷修，叠加1条产线热修，产量减少。下周暂无产线存点火或者冷修预期，预估下周浮法玻璃日产量维 | | | | 持稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，近期产销随着价格波动而波动。但总体看来，下游需求仍有较强韧性。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，企业库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - International ICE raw sugar rose to 14.26 cents/pound due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and high domestic prices in India suppressing exports, but there is a long - term pressure of a 2.8 million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, new sugar quotes are firm and old sugar inventory clearance support the futures prices, but the expected increase in production, off - season consumption, and sufficient supply limit the upside. The market is watching the breakthrough of the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5,480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly decrease of 0.02%; SR03 at 5,442 yuan/ton (0.18% daily, - 0.24% weekly); SR05 at 5,411 yuan/ton (0.11% daily, - 0.37% weekly); SR07 at 5,410 yuan/ton (0.13% daily, - 0.4% weekly); SR09 at 5,404 yuan/ton (0.02% daily, - 0.57% weekly); SR11 at 5,470 yuan/ton (1.11% daily, 1.03% weekly); SB at 14.26 cents/pound (0.92% daily, 0.35% weekly); W at 409.3 (0.84% daily, 0.74% weekly) [4]. - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 70 (up 10 daily, 4 weekly); SR05 - 09 was 2 (up 3 daily, 3 weekly); SR09 - 01 was - 72 (down 13 daily, 7 weekly); SR01 - 03 was 43 (up 6 daily, 4 weekly); SR03 - 05 was 27 (up 4 daily, 0 weekly); SR05 - 07 was 2 (0 daily, down 2 weekly); SR07 - 09 was 0 (up 3 daily, 5 weekly); SR09 - 11 was - 7 (down 5 daily, 71 weekly); SR11 - 01 was - 65 (down 8 daily, 64 weekly) [4]. Basis - Nanning - SR01 basis was 285 (down 18 daily, up 34 weekly); Nanning - SR03 was 328 (down 12 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR05 was 355 (down 8 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR07 was 357 (down 8 daily, up 36 weekly); Nanning - SR09 was 357 (down 5 daily, up 41 weekly); Nanning - SR11 was 350 (down 10 daily, down 30 weekly). Kunming - SR01 basis was 175 (down 18 daily, down 21 weekly); Kunming - SR03 was 218 (down 12 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR05 was 245 (down 8 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR07 was 247 (down 8 daily, down 19 weekly); Kunming - SR09 was 247 (down 5 daily, down 14 weekly); Kunming - SR11 was 240 (down 10 daily, down 85 weekly) [11]. Import Price and Profit - Brazilian import price: Quota - within was 3,947 yuan/ton (down 20 daily, 59 weekly), over - quota was 4,996 yuan/ton (down 26 daily, 77 weekly). Thai import price: Quota - within was 4,002 yuan/ton (down 21 daily, 69 weekly), over - quota was 5,068 yuan/ton (down 27 daily, 90 weekly) [14]. Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short - term, market sentiment may improve due to China - US trade consultations. The new cotton production in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton production is still high, and downstream demand is mediocre. Cotton prices lack upward momentum and may fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton and the subsequent new - season production determination [16]. Price and Spread - Cotton futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 09 at 13,735 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,855 yuan/ton (down 10, - 0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 was 0 (down 19,860, - 100%); Cotton yarn 09 was 0 (0, - 100%) [17]. - Cotton price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,282 (up 18); Cotton 01 - 05 was 0 (0); Cotton 05 - 09 was - 175 (0); Cotton 09 - 01 was 175 (0); Cotton - yarn spread was 6,280 (up 15); Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,872 (up 100); Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 616 (0) [17]. Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is coming to an end, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The cold - storage warehousing work is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, not all apples have been harvested, there are many buyers, and striped apples are on the market. In terms of warehousing progress, cold - storages in Gansu have started to sell, Shaanxi's warehousing is almost finished, and in Qixia's western towns in Shandong, a large amount of farmers' apples are still being warehoused [20]. Price and Spread - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 9,229 yuan/ton (0.76% daily, 4.15% weekly); AP03 at 9,132 yuan/ton (0.43% daily, 2.0% weekly); AP04 at 9,211 yuan/ton (0.29% daily, 1.69% weekly); AP05 at 9,289 yuan/ton (0.31% daily, 1.94% weekly); AP10 at 8,389 yuan/ton (0.35% daily, 2.08% weekly); AP11 at 8,875 yuan/ton (0.85% daily, 1.22% weekly); AP12 at 9,179 yuan/ton (0.75% daily, 4.09% weekly) [21]. - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 101 (- 7.34% daily, - 72.70% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 900 (4.77% daily, - 18.18% weekly); AP10 - 01 was - 799 (6.53% daily, 9.45% weekly); Main - contract basis was - 352 (28.47% daily, 214.29% weekly) [22]. Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - New - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvest stage. The current new - season production is the core point of market game. There is indeed a production reduction in southern Xinjiang, but the reduction amplitude is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of production are prone to偏差. In the short - term, red date prices fluctuate greatly under capital game. With the start of the purchase season and production reduction, the downside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent commodity rate and purchase situation of new dates [26]. Price Spread - Red date futures spreads: Red date 01 - 05 spread, 05 - 09 spread, and 09 - 01 spread data are presented graphically, showing their historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [27][29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, PVC opened flat and trended lower, with the weekly line showing two consecutive negative trends and the main contract hitting a new low for the year. In the coming week, the fundamentals remain largely unchanged, maintaining a weak pattern of high inventory and high warrants. There is no upward driving force on the supply - demand side, but the low absolute price and the strong performance of coal at the cost - end provide support at the bottom. With the main contract's open interest reaching a new high, attention should be paid to the short - covering opportunities in the later stage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - **Price Trend**: This week, PVC opened flat at 4696, quickly rose to a weekly high of 4702, then continued last week's downward trend, reached a weekly low of 4600 on Thursday morning, and finally closed at 4611, down 90 points or 1.8% from last week. The weekly range was between 4600 and 4702, with an amplitude of 102 points [3][8]. - **Base and Warehouse Receipts**: No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only the topic is mentioned [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread showed a sideways shock [13]. - **Valuation**: - The gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method this week was - 723 yuan/ton, and the calcium carbide price rose slightly at a low level, strengthening the cost support [17]. - The profit of northwest chlor - alkali integration continued to be compressed [20]. - **Supply**: - This week, PVC production was 470,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. From January to week 43, the cumulative production increased by 4.6% year - on - year. In the next 3 weeks, the supply - demand pressure in the PVC industry will first increase and then decrease [25]. - **Demand**: - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction/construction/completion/sales area of real estate were - 18.9%/- 9.4%/- 15.3%/- 5.5%. The decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while the decline in construction and sales areas continued to expand [28]. - Currently, the downstream operating rate is maintained at around 50%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the apparent consumption in September was 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [31]. - **Export**: From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 980,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%). In September, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India) [34]. - **Inventory**: - As of Thursday this week, the PVC enterprise inventory was 340,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,000), and the pre - sales volume of upstream enterprises was 64 (a week - on - week increase of 8) [37]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 540,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1,000), and the large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1,000, a year - on - year increase of 206,000) [40]. Caustic Soda Market Review Only the topic of caustic soda market review is mentioned, and no specific content analysis is provided [41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the disparity between overall market performance and individual stock performance, indicating that while indices have risen, a significant portion of investors have not benefited proportionately [2][9] - A report from Nomura suggests that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December is increasing, leading to a drop in rate cut expectations from 90% to 70% [2] - The current bull market, which began in April 2025, has seen indices rise over 20%, yet less than 40% of stocks have outperformed the market, leaving over 60% of investors as mere participants [2][9] Group 2 - The analysis of stocks that have outperformed the index reveals that successful stocks often show clear signs of capital competition before their price increases, suggesting that institutional and speculative funds are actively involved [3][9] - The top-performing stocks from October 9 to 29, 2025, averaged 3.36 instances of "capital competition" signals, indicating that large capital accumulation is a continuous process and that patience for certain opportunities is more beneficial than chasing trends [7][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of tracking institutional movements, as historical data shows that individual investors with annual returns exceeding 20% often utilized methods to monitor institutional activities [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows a mixed performance, with the shipping index (European route) experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, indicating a cautious outlook for future operations in the shipping industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping index (European route) futures opened at 1860.0 points, with a maximum of 1878.0 points and a minimum of 1765.0 points, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.62% [1]. - The SCFI European route index was reported at $1246/TEU, an increase of 8.8% compared to the previous period [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - There is a preliminary consensus between China and the U.S. on resolving several important economic and trade issues, which may provide marginal support to the shipping index [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Gaza, continue to impact market sentiment, with ongoing volatility in ceasefire agreements [2][3]. Group 3: Shipping Rates and Market Sentiment - Major shipping companies are adjusting their November pricing, with CMA increasing rates by $400 for large containers, while HMM reported a decrease of $400 for similar containers [2]. - The shipping market is heavily influenced by news, with expectations of price increases from major shipping lines as the peak shipping season approaches [3]. - Despite some positive signals from major shipping companies regarding pricing, there remains caution in the market due to limited capacity control and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current downturn in the liquor industry during the Mid-Autumn and National Day festivals is marked by a predicted sales decline of 15%-20%, yet unusual capital movements suggest potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Analysis - The current period is described as the "most difficult time for the industry," reminiscent of the 2013 plasticizer incident, where institutional funds quietly positioned themselves in Moutai despite negative sentiment [3]. - High channel inventory and severe price inversions are present, but certain leading brands are experiencing increased trading activity, indicating a divergence in market behavior [3][5]. - The analysis highlights that while overall sales appear weak, specific price segments are gaining traction among investors, particularly in the 100-300 yuan range [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A notable phenomenon is observed where the intersection of institutional inventory and retail capital movements signals competitive dynamics among different types of smart money [5]. - Historical data suggests that during previous downturns, the flow of channel funds played a crucial role in determining the fate of companies, with successful firms showing sustained capital accumulation during specific periods [7]. - The current market environment is complex, with over 40% of trading being algorithmic, yet the fundamental human behaviors of institutions, retail investors, and speculative traders remain unchanged [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to abandon the pursuit of perfect timing, as waiting for ideal price points may lead to missed opportunities [9]. - Attention should be given to stocks with sudden spikes in turnover rates, as these may indicate significant market movements worth monitoring [9]. - Understanding the logic behind different price segments corresponding to various consumption scenarios is essential for making informed investment decisions [9]. - Utilizing quantitative analysis tools can provide ordinary investors with an advantage in navigating the current market landscape [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with a significant decrease in trading volume, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment and a potential shift towards profit-taking [1] Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 23,494 billion yuan, a decrease of 8,172 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - There is a notable increase in valuations, leading to profit-taking demands among investors [1] Policy and Economic Factors - Positive policy expectations and a trend of net capital inflow are seen as long-term drivers for stock index growth [1] - Weak credit and inflation data for August, along with slowing consumption growth, suggest a weakening demand in the real economy, which enhances expectations for demand-stabilizing policies [1] Capital Flow - Significant increases in non-bank deposits in July and August indicate that the stock market continues to attract incremental capital inflows [1] - The financing balance remains at a high level, reflecting ongoing investor interest [1] Short-term Outlook - The stock index is expected to primarily experience wide fluctuations in the short term [1] - An increase in implied volatility for options suggests a bullish outlook for the stock index in the medium to long term, with recommendations to maintain bull spreads or ratio spreads [1]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The essence of the stock market is the flow of funds, where increased buying leads to rising prices and increased selling leads to falling prices [2] - Key indicators for understanding fund movements include trading volume, the "Dragon and Tiger List," and fund flow indicators [4][5][6] - Trading volume serves as a real signal of market activity, with significant increases indicating potential actions by major funds [4] Group 2: Company Evaluation - Evaluating companies should focus on net profit as a key indicator of true profitability, rather than just revenue growth [8] - Cash flow is crucial for assessing a company's financial health, with high cash flow relative to net profit indicating better quality earnings [9] - Industry leaders often possess stronger pricing power and stability, making them safer investment choices [10] Group 3: Information Management - Retail investors often operate at the bottom of the information chain, making it essential to establish reliable information sources [12] - Awareness of "lagging information" is critical, as institutional investors may have insights long before public announcements [13] - Filtering information through common sense can help mitigate the risks associated with misinformation [16] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The stock market is a battleground of funds, value, and information, requiring a shift from short-term speculation to a more analytical approach [17] - Understanding the interplay of fund dynamics, value discovery, and information management is vital for successful investing [17]

Group 1 - The core observation is the unusual market behavior where the index declines while individual stocks rise, indicating a divergence in market dynamics [1] - A report from Bank of America highlights the valuation difference between Chinese and U.S. markets, with China's stock-to-bond ratio at 1.0 compared to the U.S. at 3.5, attracting international capital [3] - The report suggests a tug-of-war between institutional investors seeking long-term value and speculative retail investors, leading to unique market reactions [3] Group 2 - The true drivers of stock price movements are often hidden trading behaviors rather than visible factors like policies or earnings [4] - The phenomenon of stocks moving together, as seen in the semiconductor sector, illustrates the interconnectedness of market movements that traditional analysis may not predict [4] - When both institutional and retail investors are active, it signals significant market events are likely to unfold [6] Group 3 - Modern retail investors, or "speculative funds," have evolved from high-risk strategies to more sophisticated, algorithm-driven trading, drastically changing market dynamics [7] - The rapid entry of speculative funds into stocks creates volatility, prompting institutional investors to follow suit, reshaping the A-share market logic [9] - This new funding dynamic emphasizes the importance of understanding market behaviors rather than merely chasing trends [9] Group 4 - Investors are advised to utilize appropriate analytical tools to navigate the complex market environment, akin to how doctors use CT scans to diagnose conditions [10] - The focus should be on understanding current market behaviors and the underlying motivations of trading, rather than attempting to predict future movements [10] - The essence of investing is rooted in human psychology, with emotions like fear and greed remaining constant despite changing market conditions [10]

Group 1 - ST Kevin (sz002425) reached the daily limit on September 1, 2025, with a closing price of 3.86 yuan, representing a 4.89% increase, and a total market capitalization of 3.693 billion yuan [1] - The trading volume for ST Kevin on that day was 1.03 billion yuan, indicating significant investor interest [1] Group 2 - Possible reasons for ST Kevin's price surge include favorable education policies, improved performance expectations, and speculative trading by investors [2] - As an education industry company, ST Kevin may benefit from recent supportive policies for vocational and quality education, which could drive stock price increases [2] - Expectations of performance improvement, such as announcements of profit forecasts or successful asset divestitures, could attract investor attention and lead to stock price appreciation [2]