Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing dramatic fluctuations in 2025, with prices soaring to historical highs before a significant drop, raising questions about the sustainability of the silver shortage and its potential to outperform gold [1][5]. Financial Drivers - Expectations of interest rate cuts and the extreme deviation of the gold-silver ratio are key financial drivers for silver prices. The market anticipates a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a cumulative 50 basis points by December, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver [1][2]. - The gold-silver ratio reached over 100 in April 2025, indicating that silver was undervalued relative to gold, with a 70% probability of a price correction within 4-6 months when the ratio exceeds 80 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with a projected global silver demand of 8,800 tons in 2025 due to a supply-demand gap [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained, with 70% of silver sourced from copper and lead-zinc mines, and potential legislative changes in Mexico could further limit silver exports, exacerbating the supply shortage [4]. Market Sentiment and Technical Adjustments - Recent price corrections are attributed to market sentiment and profit-taking after a rapid price increase, with speculative positions reaching near historical danger levels [5][6]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for silver, contributing to price volatility [6]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term fundamentals for silver remain strong, with ongoing industrial demand and a tight supply situation expected to persist at least until mid-2026 [7][8]. - Predictions indicate that silver prices could rise significantly, with estimates suggesting potential increases of 15%-20% in the near term, outperforming gold [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has emerged as a significant player in the commodity sector, with prices soaring from around $30 to $52, marking a 70% increase in just over six months, outpacing gold during the same period [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Initially overlooked, silver began its upward trajectory in April 2025, with prices breaking the $30 mark, while attention was primarily focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and gold's performance [3][5]. - By June, there was a noticeable acceleration in ETF inflows, and physical silver became increasingly scarce, leading to a situation where ordinary silver bars were sold at a 20% premium due to high demand [5][9]. Investment Behavior - Unlike previous trends where investors favored "paper silver," there has been a shift towards acquiring physical silver, resulting in supply shortages and rising premiums [9][11]. - Institutional investors have been gradually accumulating silver, indicating a more strategic approach rather than speculative trading [7][11]. Supporting Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties and global monetary policy fluctuations have driven investors to seek safe-haven assets, with silver gaining traction alongside gold [11][13]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have reduced the opportunity cost of holding silver, making it a more attractive investment [13][15]. - Silver's industrial applications, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics, have created genuine demand, further supporting its price increase [15][17]. Supply and Demand - The "gold-silver ratio" has prompted investors to view silver as undervalued, leading to increased allocations in investment portfolios [17][19]. - The transition from purchasing paper silver to physical silver has resulted in supply constraints, exacerbating price increases due to panic buying [19][21]. Market Risks - Silver's market capitalization is significantly lower than gold's, making it more susceptible to price volatility from relatively small capital movements [21][23]. - The dual nature of silver as both an industrial and speculative asset means its price is closely tied to the performance of downstream industries, which could lead to sharp declines if demand weakens [21][25]. Future Outlook - Monitoring supply levels in the London market and industrial demand will be crucial for predicting silver's price stability [23][25]. - Silver's price movements will likely continue to correlate with gold, influenced by broader economic factors such as U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [23][25].

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly, reaching historical highs, with London spot silver hitting over $53 per ounce, marking an 84% increase year-to-date, outperforming gold's 60% rise [1][2] - The demand for silver has intensified, leading to shortages in the market, particularly in major trading hubs like Shenzhen [2][3] - Investment interest in silver is growing, with banks launching new silver investment products to cater to rising consumer demand [3][4] Price Performance - As of October 16, 2023, London silver prices reached $53.20 per ounce, while COMEX silver was at $52.85 per ounce, both showing over 80% gains since the beginning of the year [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in silver prices has been 82.54%, significantly higher than gold's 61.21% [2] Market Dynamics - The tight supply of silver has led to a "silver rush," with reports of high demand and limited availability for larger silver bars [2][3] - The price of silver has risen from approximately 7 yuan per gram last year to over 12 yuan per gram currently, indicating a substantial increase in market value [2] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in investor sentiment, with many moving from gold to silver due to the latter's price performance [1][3] - Financial institutions are increasingly offering silver investment products, with various banks launching silver bars and related investment options [3][4] Risk and Volatility - Silver prices are characterized by higher volatility compared to gold, which may pose risks for investors [4] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, adds complexity to its price dynamics, with potential for both upward and downward movements based on market conditions [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while silver has experienced rapid price increases, a period of consolidation may be necessary before further gains can be realized [5] - The medium-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for silver prices to maintain levels above 15 yuan per gram [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength in silver prices is supported by macroeconomic policies, supply-demand dynamics, and the gold-silver ratio recovery [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Factors - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September, leading to strong market expectations for multiple rate cuts within the year, enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals like silver [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have led to an influx of safe-haven investments into silver, which is often referred to as "the poor man's gold," resulting in both speculative and institutional capital inflows that have driven prices past historical key levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to reach a historical record of 120 million ounces by 2025, with industrial demand accounting for over 50% of this figure [1] - The photovoltaic industry is identified as a core driver of silver demand, with global solar installation capacity expected to reach 655 GW by 2025, and silver paste consumption in solar applications representing 25% of total demand [1] - Additional demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and 5G technology further supports the long-term fundamentals for silver [1] Group 3: Gold-Silver Ratio Recovery - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 106 in April to 85, yet remains above the historical average range of 40-80, indicating significant potential for silver to catch up [1] - Should gold prices continue to rise and the gold-silver ratio move towards its historical mean, silver theoretically has considerable upside potential [1]

Group 1: Silver Demand in Industries - Global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity is expected to exceed 655 GW by 2025, leading to a silver demand of 5,200 to 6,500 tons due to the consumption of 8-10 tons of silver per GW [1] - In the electric vehicle sector, the silver usage per vehicle is as high as 50 grams, more than double that of traditional fuel vehicles, with total silver demand in the automotive industry projected to reach 2,566 tons by 2025 [3] - The industrial demand for silver is expected to account for 58% of total demand, significantly surpassing jewelry (18%) and investment demand (16%) [3] Group 2: Supply and Market Dynamics - The global silver supply is projected at 31,700 tons for 2024, while demand is expected to reach 36,700 tons, resulting in a supply gap of 5,000 tons, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4] - The supply constraints are primarily due to the fact that 70% of silver is sourced from lead-zinc and copper mining, with only 30% from independent silver mines, and production growth in major silver-producing countries has slowed [4] - Despite high silver prices boosting recycling rates in Europe and the U.S., the recovery volume is expected to decline by 3% year-on-year in Q1 2025 due to high purification costs and a reluctance to sell among small-scale holders [4] Group 3: Price Movements and Market Sentiment - Silver inventories have dropped to a ten-year low, with trading volumes in Shanghai reaching 15,700 tons, indicating tight market liquidity [6] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the net long positions in silver surged by 163% since the beginning of the year, the highest level since 2021 [6] - The price of silver futures in Shanghai rose over 36% from 6,483 yuan/kg in April to 10,632 yuan/kg in September, reflecting strong market interest [8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that silver may face resistance above $46 per ounce due to historical selling pressure, and potential shifts in technology and market conditions could weaken industrial demand [10] - The ongoing exploration of "silver-free" technologies in the photovoltaic industry and the impact of digital currencies on precious metals could redefine silver's long-term value [10] - The perception of silver as a "strategic metal" in the new energy era contrasts with views of it as a potential capital bubble, indicating a complex future for the metal [10]

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a new high, with London spot gold hitting a peak of $3,895.28 per ounce and closing at $3,889.28 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook reporting prices of 1,130 CNY per gram, reflecting increases of 19 CNY and 21 CNY respectively compared to two days prior [3] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market saw gold jewelry prices rise to 888 CNY per gram, up from approximately 796 CNY in early September, indicating a significant price increase [3] Group 2 - Retailers are cautious about inventory due to high gold prices, adopting a strategy of purchasing gold only as needed to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [4] - The profit margins for gold jewelry are reported to be between 10% to 20% for weight-based pricing, while "one-price" gold jewelry can have margins of 30% to 40%, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards self-value [4] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that gold may continue to experience a bullish trend due to ongoing U.S. government debt issues and the long-term logic of de-dollarization, although a period of consolidation may follow after the recent price increases [4] Group 3 - As gold prices rise, investors are diversifying into silver and platinum, leading to a decline in the gold-silver ratio, which is approaching historical lows [5] - The short-term upward trend in silver prices may be nearing its peak, facing potential resistance near historical high points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and liquidity [4][5] Group 2: Platinum and Gold Market Trends - Platinum prices also surged, with a 2.5% increase on September 27, reaching $1584 per ounce, marking an 11.5% weekly rise [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for silver price recovery [5] - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility and the impact of changing economic conditions [9][10] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, with expectations of a gradual price increase [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After two months of consolidation, the silver market saw a breakthrough in September, with both domestic and international prices hitting multi - year highs. The strong upward trend is driven by multiple factors including macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and gold - silver ratio repair [2][5]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts is strengthening, which provides a solid foundation for the rise of precious metals including silver [11][12]. - The silver market in 2025 is expected to have a supply - demand gap, and the continuous strength of industrial demand, supply - demand imbalance, and low inventory support the long - term price elasticity and allocation value of silver [17][18]. - The current gold - silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Looking ahead, loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in the inflation situation should be noted. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to key price levels [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In September, after two months of consolidation, the silver market had a breakthrough. The New York silver price exceeded $43 per ounce and reached a high of $44.395 per ounce on September 23, with a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The domestic Shanghai silver also reached a record high of 10,359 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of over 35% [2][5]. - The strong rise in silver prices is due to multiple factors. Macroeconomically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and geopolitical tensions boost silver. Industrially, the demand from sectors like photovoltaics, new - energy vehicles, and semiconductors is strong, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. The current gold - silver ratio is high, indicating undervaluation of silver [2][5]. 3.2 Macro Policy Expectations Driving Precious Metals Up - Economic indicators show a significant slowdown in the US labor market. In August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The inflation data shows some stickiness, and the PPI is in deflation. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 soared to 263,000, heightening concerns about economic slowdown [11]. - Market expectations for the Fed's continued interest rate cuts are strengthening. The September FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points. As of September 22, the CME data shows a 91.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in October and an 80.6% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December, which supports the rise of precious metals [12]. 3.3 Tight Supply - Demand Structure of Silver and Strong Industrial Demand - In 2024, global silver supply increased moderately. Global mined silver production was 819.7 million ounces, up 0.9% year - on - year, and recycled silver supply reached 193.9 million ounces, up 6% year - on - year. The total demand decreased by 3% to 1.16 billion ounces, with a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand reached a record high, especially in electronics, photovoltaics, and other fields [17]. - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, and total demand is expected to decrease slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 117.6 million ounces. Excluding ETPs, the physical gap will widen to 187.6 million ounces. The supply - demand gap and low inventory support the price of silver in the long - term [18]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Repair and Enhanced Silver's Catch - up Momentum - The current domestic and international gold - silver ratios are about 82 and 85 respectively, significantly higher than the historical averages of the past 50 years (63) and 20 years (70), indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Historically, when the gold - silver ratio is high, silver usually lags behind and then catches up. In the current context of interest rate cut expectations and industrial demand recovery, silver's financial and commodity attributes resonate, attracting capital inflows [20]. 3.5 Future Operation Suggestions - Loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in inflation data should be noted [3][25]. - It is recommended to buy on dips, focus on the effectiveness of support around $40 per ounce, and set upward targets at around $45 per ounce and $48 per ounce. Attention should be paid to controlling positions and closely monitoring macro - data and capital trends [3][25].

Group 1 - Silver prices have been on an upward trend this year, with London spot silver prices surpassing $42 per ounce, marking a 14-year high and a cumulative increase of over 40% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver futures contract has also exceeded 10,000 yuan per kilogram, achieving a nearly 13-year high with a cumulative increase of over 30% [2] Group 2 - The increase in silver prices is attributed to a significant supply-demand gap, with global silver production falling short of consumption by approximately 4,000 tons for the fifth consecutive year [3] - The rise in silver prices is closely linked to its financial attributes, driven by heightened risk aversion due to global trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which have also boosted gold prices [3] - The gold-silver ratio has been correcting, attracting funds from gold to silver, as the previous strong performance of gold led to a historical high in the gold-silver ratio, indicating that silver was undervalued [3] Group 3 - Silver's physical and chemical properties make it valuable in various industries, including electronics, renewable energy, and healthcare, where it is used as a catalyst, conductive contact material, and antimicrobial agent [4] - According to the Silver Institute, in 2024, the downstream demand for silver is expected to be distributed as follows: 58% for industrial use, 18% for jewelry, and 16% for investment, with the photovoltaic sector accounting for 17% of industrial demand [5] Group 4 - Looking ahead, silver is expected to experience a significant upward trend, with international silver prices potentially reaching $50 per ounce and domestic prices projected to break through the range of 11,500 to 12,000 yuan per kilogram [6] - Short-term forecasts suggest that silver may outperform gold, as historical patterns indicate that liquidity easing often leads to a substantial decline in the gold-silver ratio, driving silver prices higher [7]