投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2026/1/13 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 2026/1/9 | 指标 | | 2026/1/12 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | 432.7 | INE原油(元/桶) | | 437.5 | 4. 80 | 成交情况: PTA:成本支撑,且华东330万吨PTA装置即将检修, | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | SC | 1963.5 | 1962.6 | -0. 88 | PTA行情上涨。但华东某企业出售PTA现货,市场人士 | | | | | | | 担忧其270万吨PTA装置即将重启,利空PTA现货基差。 | | -0. 0071 | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.6244 | 1. 6173 | | | | CFR中国PX | PX | 892 | 897 | 5 | | | PX-石脑油 ...

（原标题：时隔近4个月 A股成交额历史第6次突破3万亿） 1月9日，A股市场再度迎来强势行情：三大指数集体走高，上证指数收涨0.92%，时隔10年再度站上4100点整数关口，录得16连阳；创业板指涨 0.77%。AI应用题材爆发，影视、短剧游戏方向领跑。商业航天、人形机器人、小金属概念股涨幅居前。光伏、大金融板块走弱。 从历史成交数据来看，A股如此级别的量能释放并不常见。21快讯记者查询数据显示，截至目前，A股历史上仅出现6次单日成交额突破3万亿元的 情况，除今日外，其余5日分别是2024年10月8日（34835.43亿元）、2025年8月27日（31977.88亿元）、2025年8月25日（31769.48亿元）、2025年 9月18日（31666.43亿元）及2025年8月28日（30008.90亿元）。 对于当前A股的上涨与量能放大，经济学家盘和林在接受21快讯记者采访时表示，这一表现意味着A股已进入全面牛市阶段，背后是投资人热情的 持续攀升。"当前A股上涨和放量的核心驱动力，是人民币升值带来的全球资本回流——事实上全球股市都在屡创新高，A股如今的涨势仍处于合 理范围内。" 盘和林进一步分析称，在成交额 ...

| 2024-12-10 | 22,279.04 | | --- | --- | | 2025-09-30 | 21,972.49 | | 2025-11-10 | 21,943.71 | | 2025-12-26 | 21,811.04 | | 2025-09-29 | 21,781.43 | | 2025-08-13 | 21,752.11 | | 2025-09-26 | 21,661.07 | | 2025-10-28 | 21,653.07 | | 2025-12-30 | 21,615.32 | | 2024-10-10 | 21,609.11 | | 2025-12-29 | 21,576.86 | | 2025-09-09 | 21,520.80 | | 2025-09-22 | 21,424.63 | | 2025-11-03 | 21,329.04 | | 2024-10-18 | 21,305.92 | | 2025-12-12 | 21,190.10 | | 2025-02-24 | 21,153.66 | | 2024-10-29 | 21,148.67 | | 2015-05-26 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally on January 9, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.92%, surpassing the 4100-point mark for the first time in 10 years, marking a 16-day consecutive rise [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.77%, driven by surges in AI application themes, particularly in the film, short drama, and gaming sectors. Other leading sectors included commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and small metal concepts, while the photovoltaic and large financial sectors weakened [1] Trading Volume and Investor Sentiment - Since the beginning of 2026, the market has maintained a trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days, with today's half-day volume surpassing 2 trillion yuan, indicating a rapid increase in investor sentiment [3] - Historical data shows that such high trading volumes are rare in A-share history, with only six instances of daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The most recent occurrence was on October 8, 2024, with a volume of 34,835.43 billion yuan [3][4] Market Dynamics and Economic Analysis - Economist Pan Helin stated that the current performance of the A-share market indicates a transition into a full bull market phase, driven by the appreciation of the yuan and the return of global capital. He noted that the upward trend in A-shares is still within a reasonable range compared to global markets [9] - Pan further analyzed that once trading volumes exceed 3 trillion yuan, market sentiment will likely push the market higher. This phase of growth may be less correlated with earnings and value, representing a typical characteristic of a bull market [9] Structural Characteristics of the Bull Market - Despite the bullish trend, Pan cautioned that fluctuations may occur during the bull market, with potential for short-term adjustments. However, the overall market is expected to remain strong until the end of the global economic prosperity cycle [10] - The current bull market is characterized as structural, with certain popular sectors likely to continue reaching new highs, while less popular sectors may need to wait for market rotation opportunities [10]

1月9日，A股市场再度迎来强势行情：三大指数集体走高，上证指数收涨0.92%，时隔10年再度站上4100点整数关口，录得16连阳；创业板指涨0.77%。AI 应用题材爆发，影视、短剧游戏方向领跑。商业航天、人形机器人、小金属概念股涨幅居前。光伏、大金融板块走弱。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | 4120.43 | 14120.15 | 1803.40 | | +37.45 +0.92% +160.67 +1.15% +36.83 +2.09% | | | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6737.75 | 3327.81 | 1524.26 | | +78.53 +1.18% +25.51 +0.77% +15.89 +1.05% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4758.92 | 8056.69 | 5881.95 | | +21.27 +0.45% +162.14 +2.05% +51.38 +0.88% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 ...

DWS发布2025年12月市场展望，DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda提到，1996年时任美联储主席格 林斯潘曾以"非理性繁荣"形容当时科技热潮引发的股市泡沫，最终该泡沫于2000年3月破裂。如今部分 科技股估值再次达到极高水平，但情况已大不相同，更倾向称之为由人工智能驱动的"理性繁荣"。不 过，当首轮AI热潮过后，市场将更关注如此庞大的AI资本开支最终能否真正提升企业效率。 这亦意味着，投资者挑选企业时需要更加审慎。Vedda强调，并非所有AI企业都会成为最终赢家。以往 多数牛市都在经济衰退中告终，但在当前情况下出现衰退的机会不高，尤其是企业盈利增长依然稳健， 而后续减息预期亦有望带来正面支持。正因如此，Vedda对2026年投资市场前景持乐观看法。然而， Vedda亦提醒，这并不代表市场不会出现调整。毕竟，目前美国科技股估值已攀至相当高的水平，而部 分领域（例如数据中心）甚至可能已出现产能过剩。 另一项不容忽视的风险，是部分企业为了加大投资而承受较高的负债比率。有鉴于此，Vedda认为投资 者在来年必须保持跨区域、跨行业、跨投资风格及跨货币的多元化配置。在股票配置方面，投资者可考 虑欧洲中 ...

（来源：红刊价投） 文丨霍华德・马克斯 Howard Marks 我们正处在世界历史上一个非凡的时刻。一项具有变革意义的技术正在兴起，其支持者声称它将永久地改变世界。为了构建这项技术，企业需要投入大量 资金，规模之大前所未有。新闻报道充斥着各种担忧，担心美国最大的企业正在支撑着一个即将破裂的泡沫。 在上个月拜访亚洲和中东客户期间，我常被问及人工智能是否有存在泡沫的可能性，这些讨论促使我撰写本篇备忘录。我想先作个惯常的免责声明：我并 不活跃于股票市场，只是将股市当作观察投资者心理的最佳晴雨表。我也不是技术专家，对人工智能的了解也不比大多数普通投资者多。但我会尽力而 为。 泡沫最有趣的一点在于其规律性，这种规律性不在于发生的时间，而是体现在其演变的过程之中。某种全新的、看似具有革命性的事物出现，并逐渐深入 人心。它激发了人们的想象，那种兴奋感势不可挡。早期参与者享受了丰厚的收益。那些只是旁观的人则心生嫉妒与懊悔，于是在错失恐惧症（FOMO） 的驱使下蜂拥而入。他们这样做时，并不知道未来会怎样，也不在意所支付的价格是否预期能在可承受的风险范围内带来合理的回报。最终的结果是，投 资者在中短期内不可避免地会感到痛苦，尽 ...

谷歌母公司Alphabet的首席执行官Sundar Pichai发出了一个罕见的警告：当前的人工智能热潮中存在"非 理性"成分，一旦潜在的泡沫破裂，没有任何公司能够幸免，即便是谷歌也不例外。 AI热潮中的"非理性"时刻 市场对AI的狂热，已让人联想起上世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫。当时，对新技术的乐观情绪将早期互 联网公司的估值推至高点，但泡沫最终在2000年初破裂，导致大量公司倒闭、股价崩盘，并冲击了人们 的储蓄和养老基金。分析师们对围绕OpenAI进行的约1.4万亿美元的复杂交易表示怀疑，而该公司今年 的预期收入不到计划投资额的千分之一。 Pichai关于"非理性"的评论，呼应了前美联储主席格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）在1996年互联网泡沫破裂 前提出的"非理性繁荣"的著名警告。Pichai表示，在这样的投资周期中，行业可能会出现"过度投资"。 但他同时认为，"我们可以回顾一下互联网。当时显然有很多过度投资，但我们没有人会质疑互联网的 意义是深远的。我预计AI也会是同样的情况。" 这位谷歌掌门人的看法也得到了华尔街的呼应。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）上月曾表 示，对AI的投资 ...

Group 1: AI and Economic Impact - AI-related investments are projected to contribute 1.57 percentage points to the US GDP growth in the first half of 2025, surpassing the contribution from private consumption [6] - The nominal value added from data processing services in the US GDP has increased significantly, reaching 1.75%, while manufacturing's share has dropped below 10% for the first time since 1995 [10] - The real value added per capita in AI-related industries has grown at an annualized rate of 12.66%, significantly higher than the 1.56% growth in manufacturing [13] Group 2: AI and Employment - The penetration of AI technology in the workforce is still low, with only 6 out of 20 major industries exceeding a 10% usage rate [31] - The impact of AI on employment is overstated, as the current job weakness is more related to the previous interest rate hikes rather than AI [31][34] - AI's primary utility remains in information search and marketing, with limited adoption in enhancing productivity through new workflows [39] Group 3: AI and Financial Sector - The capital expenditures of tech companies are increasing, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, particularly among major players like Microsoft and Amazon [50][51] - The total issuance of bonds by hyperscaler companies reached $103.8 billion in 2025, indicating a significant reliance on external financing [56] - The rapid growth of private credit, particularly in the tech sector, raises concerns about transparency and potential vulnerabilities in the financial system [72]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the similarities and differences between the current market environment and the conditions leading up to the dot-com bubble, emphasizing the potential risks associated with the current investment climate driven by technology and speculative behavior [5][6]. Structural Factors: Similar Foundations, Amplified Risks - The democratization of capital markets has made trading accessible to the masses through zero-commission apps and social media, leading to increased volatility and a gamified investment approach [8]. - Current monetary policy expectations are reminiscent of the "Great Moderation" era, with hopes for a return to low inflation and interest rates, but persistent inflation could lead to prolonged high rates, impacting growth stocks [9][11]. - The demographic shift, with the baby boomer generation moving into retirement, is causing a net outflow of funds from the market, raising concerns about long-term returns unless younger generations invest significantly [12][13][14]. - The narrative surrounding technology, particularly AI, is driving aggressive valuations, with companies forming interdependent relationships that could lead to inflated market expectations [15]. - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain reconfigurations are increasing operational uncertainties for businesses, potentially leading to higher risk premiums and compressed valuations [16]. Cultural Factors: Accelerated Resonance, Distorted Rationality - The instantaneous nature of information dissemination through social media can lead to rapid market reactions, often outpacing rational responses [18][19]. - The cult of personality surrounding tech leaders can amplify market sentiments, where a single statement can significantly impact valuations [20]. - The culture of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is prevalent, driving irrational investment behaviors and leading to poor decision-making during market highs and lows [21][22]. Psychological Factors: Anchoring and Contagion Cycles - The post-pandemic environment has led to higher valuation anchors, with many investors believing in perpetual market growth, which can lead to risky investment strategies [24]. - The collective belief in dominant narratives, such as AI and interest rate cuts, creates a single-threaded market system where any disruption can trigger significant sell-offs [26][27]. - Long-term investors are advised to maintain clarity and restraint amidst the prevailing narratives, as the current market is heavily influenced by shared beliefs rather than rationality [28][29].