风控
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做正期望值之事,风控是永远的底线
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-11-23 23:39
不过,他也坦言,自己今年的交易并不完美。"回撤有点大,最大一次是在4月初。当时我做的是单边, 觉得大盘点位低,没做好对冲,忽略了市场的波动。"何跃表示,这次教训让他更加确信,任何时候都 要做好对冲,尤其是期权这个工具,一定要用到位。 在何跃的交易字典里,"极端"与"对冲"是两个绕不开的关键词。他的交易风格以主观交易为核心,今年 大赛的盈利正是基于对宏观政策的判断而布局的股指期货与股指期权仓单。"去年9月24日之后,国家出 台了一系列增量政策,我当时就判断,未来会有十年'牛市'。"何跃解释。 具体策略上,何跃有着明确的"点位纪律"。"大盘4000点之下,我做单边多头期货期权;4000点之上, 就切换成股指期货多头+期权空头对冲。现在是'牛市'初期,4000点之下的策略还会用一段时间。"他 称。 复杂的事简单做、简单的事重复做——专访产业组第五名何跃 何跃以"论剑"的昵称连续参与了多年全国期货(期权)实盘交易大赛。今年,他获得了产业组第五名的 佳绩。 1.从"找差距"到"证体系" "刚开始参赛,就是想看看自己的东西能不能跟上行情。每年参赛人数都在涨,高手越来越多,不跟别 人比一比,很容易自我封闭。"何跃说。 "股 ...
券商融资几倍杠杆?先理解“融资框架”再谈倍数才是专业做法
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-16 08:59
Core Viewpoint - The leverage in brokerage financing is determined by the regulatory framework rather than the leverage itself being the primary concern [1][3][6] Group 1: Brokerage Financing Structure - Traditional brokerages, such as CITIC Securities and Hengxin Securities, have a leverage range typically between 1 to 2 times due to the "margin system" constraints [3][9] - If leverage appears to be 3 times, 5 times, or even 10 times, it is likely from a different structure, not under traditional brokerage financing [4][6] - The margin requirements directly influence the leverage: 50% margin leads to 2 times leverage, 60% margin to 1.67 times, and 70% margin to 1.43 times [7] Group 2: Risk Management in Different Structures - The real risk in higher leverage structures comes from the adequacy of drawdown space and the transparency of risk control lines [10][12] - Automated risk control is essential for safely operating higher leverage [11][15] - The assessment of risk should consider whether the risk control line is public, whether it is automated, and if the orders are verifiable [10][12][17] Group 3: Leverage Suitability for Different Strategies - Long-term and medium-term investors are suited for 1 to 1.5 times leverage, while swing or trend strategy investors can use 1.5 to 2 times, aligning with brokerage financing [12] - High-frequency and intraday switching strategies may require 2 to 3 times leverage, but must ensure real orders and transparent risk control [13] - High-risk strategies might utilize 6 to 10 times leverage, but this significantly amplifies risk [16]
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-11-04 22:51
Risk Management & Trading Strategy - Previous trading involved 5x leverage, now reduced to 005x leverage [1] - Past strategies included arbitrage, inter-exchange trading, and large spread positions [1] - Current risk control is prioritized due to market uncertainty [1] Market Warnings & Losses - Warnings were issued regarding Xpl, sapine, and pumpbtc [2] - Several large accounts collectively lost over 10 million due to MMT [2]
X @𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗸𝘆
𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗸𝘆· 2025-11-04 15:34
#投资对风控的入门理解:鸡蛋不能放在一个篮子里。当然不是错,而是不够,太基础了。想着自己的标的永远不出事,一方面这是一厢情愿的愿望;另一方面上限也不过是不亏损而已。矫枉要过正。你应该想的是,如果出事了我怎么从中获利。想完了,选的篮子就有本质不同了。 ...
面对城商行突袭,华夏银行打起业绩「防御战」
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-02 10:45
Core Viewpoint - Under the reshuffling of commercial banks, city commercial banks are gaining momentum, increasing growth anxiety for lagging joint-stock banks like Huaxia Bank [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Huaxia Bank reported a revenue of 64.881 billion and a net profit of 17.982 billion for the first three quarters, representing declines of 8.79% and 2.86% year-on-year, respectively [1][6]. - Among 42 listed banks in A-shares, Huaxia Bank ranked 40th and 37th in revenue and net profit growth rates, indicating a significant lag behind most banks [2]. - In the third quarter, Huaxia Bank experienced a revenue decline of 15.02% but a net profit increase of 7.62%, marking a V-shaped reversal in profit growth [7][9]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Risk Management - As of the end of the third quarter, Huaxia Bank's non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.58%, the worst among A-share joint-stock banks [4][14]. - The bank faces a dilemma between sacrificing risk control for growth or tightening risk management and potentially losing market share to aggressive city commercial banks [5][16]. - The bank's management has undergone significant changes, including the appointment of a new chairman and several key executives, aimed at addressing long-standing governance and risk management issues [18][19]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Huaxia Bank is implementing a "cutting inward" strategy to optimize its organizational structure and improve operational efficiency [20][21]. - The bank's focus is shifting towards retail transformation and digital risk control, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and green finance [29]. - The bank's capital adequacy ratio is at 12.63%, which, while above the regulatory requirement, is still at the lower end compared to peers, indicating a weak capacity to absorb risks [14][23]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Huaxia Bank's profits have been surpassed by five city commercial banks, which are experiencing higher growth rates, intensifying competitive pressure [25][26]. - The bank's main markets, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions, are also the battlegrounds for these aggressive city commercial banks [28].
金融圈哀鸿遍野,这三家公司反成赢家?人均年薪百万!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-19 16:43
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three companies—Bohai Leasing, Shaanxi Guotou A, and CITIC Securities—that are successfully offering high salaries in a challenging financial environment, attributing their success to resource management rather than traditional business strategies [2][21]. Group 1: Bohai Leasing - Bohai Leasing has consistently ranked at the top of the A-share salary list, with an average salary close to 2 million yuan, primarily focusing on aircraft and container leasing [4][24]. - Despite facing significant losses of 10.9 billion yuan over three years due to the pandemic, the company maintained an average salary between 1.6 million and 1.9 million yuan [6][9]. - The surge in container demand during the pandemic, with shipping costs skyrocketing from 1,500 to 25,000 USD, allowed Bohai Leasing to thrive while others struggled [7][9]. - The majority of high salaries are concentrated among 487 overseas employees, averaging 1.96 million yuan, while domestic employees earn significantly less at 630,000 yuan [9][24]. - Recruitment is highly selective, with most employees coming through internal referrals, making it difficult for outsiders to join the company [9][22]. Group 2: Shaanxi Guotou A - Shaanxi Guotou A has achieved an average salary exceeding 1 million yuan, positioning itself as a stable player in the trust industry amidst widespread failures [11][14]. - The company has avoided high-risk investments, focusing instead on risk management, which has allowed it to maintain steady profit growth and reach a revenue of 2.928 billion yuan in 2024 [14][16]. - Unlike its competitors, Shaanxi Guotou A has prioritized capital preservation over aggressive profit-seeking, which has proven beneficial in a volatile market [14][21]. Group 3: CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities, with 26,000 employees, ranks among the top in average salary in the A-share market, utilizing a precise employment strategy to maintain high compensation levels [16][24]. - The company primarily hires for IT positions at market rates, while core departments like investment banking and research, which are crucial for generating revenue, are less visible in recruitment efforts [19][21]. - The hiring process for core positions is highly competitive, focusing on candidates who can bring in business and resources, rather than just academic qualifications [19][22]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The high salary stories of these companies illustrate a harsh reality in the financial sector: resources are more critical than individual capabilities [21][22]. - The ability to leverage unique resources, whether through internal networks or risk management, is essential for success in today's financial landscape [22][26].
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2025-10-14 09:17
RT Yuyue (@yuyue_chris)不要总觉得自己是强者,是幸运儿。币圈高度达尔文主义,意味着你以为自己是强者的时候总有人比你更强。巨鲸之上有更大的鲸鱼、黑客、漏洞攻击者、交易所,甚至威权组织觉得自己是强者看着无所谓啊,有这种心态也真的要更谨慎一点。遇上这种级别的问题稍有疏忽都容易直接归零,哪怕老手也总有疏忽,善游者溺于水的道理。普通新手和平时风控就不太好的人更得小点心能保持程序上合理正义已经是万幸,这事我觉得最后还是没什么结果,能处理到这一步一边夸一边骂已经达到效果了。很明显领导不觉得这事有问题,不像空投这种事,大手一挥多分出点小钱也就是领导被哄开心了一句话的事,这次的关键在于如果真认错了就等于认下管理系统里存在漏洞可能不如对家的系统了,更不用说如果真的要赔那得赔多少呢?不太可能了只能说很多事很难评,想回本都只能买强的币。亏了的大概率只能认赔,收拾收拾心情钱还是得赚,自己做好风控严格管理仓位守住本金才是最要紧的,任何人和组织都没可能为你的身家性命负责 ...
算力的泡沫与骗局
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-14 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around the concept of computing power bubbles, highlighting the cyclical nature of projects in this field and the importance of continuous due diligence and risk management [1][13][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The computing power bubble has gained public attention since early 2023, although the issues may have originated earlier [15][17]. - There is a significant information lag in the industry, where problems may be recognized by insiders long before they become apparent to the public [18][19]. - The narrative of computing power often involves creating fictitious market demands and leveraging information asymmetry to attract investments [24][38]. Group 2: Business Models and Revenue Sources - The core focus should be on the underlying assets, revenue sources, and the rationality of the business model [22]. - The profitability of computing power centers relies on providing computing services and leasing computing power [33]. - The pricing of computing power has experienced significant fluctuations, indicating potential market volatility and information gaps [35][37]. Group 3: Risks and Fraudulent Practices - Many projects in the computing power sector may engage in deceptive practices, such as fabricating revenue sources and inflating asset values [30][41]. - The existence of contracts does not guarantee genuine demand; the underlying need may be fabricated [84]. - The operational integrity of computing power centers is crucial, as discrepancies in reported capabilities can lead to significant financial losses [67][71]. Group 4: Due Diligence Recommendations - Due diligence should extend beyond the immediate business model to encompass the entire supply chain and market dynamics [85][93]. - Understanding the actual demand and the capabilities of downstream clients is essential to assess the viability of investments in computing power [87][90]. - A comprehensive approach to due diligence can help identify potential risks and prevent falling victim to common industry scams [79][94].
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2025-10-13 08:15
不要总觉得自己是强者,是幸运儿。币圈高度达尔文主义,意味着你以为自己是强者的时候总有人比你更强。巨鲸之上有更大的鲸鱼、黑客、漏洞攻击者、交易所,甚至威权组织觉得自己是强者看着无所谓啊,有这种心态也真的要更谨慎一点。遇上这种级别的问题稍有疏忽都容易直接归零,哪怕老手也总有疏忽,善游者溺于水的道理。普通新手和平时风控就不太好的人更得小点心能保持程序上合理正义已经是万幸,这事我觉得最后还是没什么结果,能处理到这一步一边夸一边骂已经达到效果了。很明显领导不觉得这事有问题,不像空投这种事,大手一挥多分出点小钱也就是领导被哄开心了一句话的事,这次的关键在于如果真认错了就等于认下管理系统里存在漏洞可能不如对家的系统了,更不用说如果真的要赔那得赔多少呢?不太可能了只能说很多事很难评,想回本都只能买强的币。亏了的大概率只能认赔,收拾收拾心情钱还是得赚,自己做好风控严格管理仓位守住本金才是最要紧的,任何人和组织都没可能为你的身家性命负责 ...