[Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2025 年 10 月 30 日 证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 雾中降息，鹰声来袭 ——美联储 10 月利率决议点评 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 背景：美东时间 10 月 29 日（北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨），美联储公布 10 月利率 决议，宣布降息 25bp，降幅符合市场预期。会议宣布将于 12 月 1 日结束 QT 。 解读：降息幅度符合预期。降息 25bp 是标准幅度的宽松，借用鲍威尔的话来说， 属于风险管理型降息。双向反对票显示美联储内部分歧加深。12 名票委中，美联 储新进理事米兰投票主张更大幅度的降息（支持 50bp 降息），施密特则投票反对 降息，其余 10 人均支持降息 25bp。米兰的 50bp ...

隔夜美联储如期降息25个基点，但美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话打击了市场情绪。鲍威尔告诫投资者，需要降低对12月降息的预期。 鲍威尔的偏"鹰"言论令市场避险情绪升温，今日亚市早盘，金价小幅拉升，截至发稿时涨幅超过0.60%。不过，金价的涨幅可能会受到抑制，澳新银 行研究部分析师在一份报告中称，在贸易谈判前景乐观的情况下，该贵金属的避险买盘料将受到抑制。 加密货币，集体跳水！ 昨日晚间至今日早间，加密货币集体跳水。其中，比特币下跌超3500美元并跌破11万美元关口。截至券商中国记者发稿时，比特币、以太坊、XRP 跌幅均超过2%。coinglass数据显示，24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓近6亿美元，爆仓人数超过13万。 日韩股市则走势分化。今日早盘，日经225指数开盘报51146.27点，下跌0.31%。韩国综合股价指数开盘报4105.95点，上涨0.6%。 超13万人爆仓 美联储降息25个基点，加密货币却集体跳水了。昨晚至今，以比特币为首的加密货币集体下挫，截至发稿时，比特币下跌2.58%报10.99万美元，以 太坊跌2.45%报3882美元，XRP的跌幅也超过2%，艾达币跌近1%。 coinglass数据显示，24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with Bitcoin dropping over $3,500 and falling below the $110,000 mark, leading to a total liquidation of nearly $588 million in contracts within 24 hours [1][3][5]. Cryptocurrency Market Summary - Bitcoin fell by 2.58% to $109,900, Ethereum decreased by 2.45% to $3,882, and XRP also saw a decline of over 2% [3]. - A total of 133,600 traders were liquidated, with long positions accounting for $455 million and short positions for $133 million [3][4]. - The largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit-BTCUSD, valued at $11 million [3]. Federal Reserve Actions Summary - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second cut of the year, which was in line with market expectations [5][10]. - Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectations for a December rate cut are "far from certain," which negatively impacted market sentiment [5][6]. - The internal discussions within the Fed revealed differing views on employment and inflation, highlighting a growing divide among policymakers [6][10]. Market Reactions Summary - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced their largest single-day drop in nearly five months, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding future rate cuts [8][9]. - Analysts noted that Powell's comments were aimed at resetting market expectations for December, suggesting that the likelihood of further rate cuts may be limited [8][9]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is currently estimated at 67.8%, with a 32.2% chance of maintaining the current rate [6].

智通财经APP获悉，在美联储如期降息的同时，美国国债大幅下跌，创近五个月最大单日跌幅。尽管劳 动力市场走弱促使决策者在周三将基准利率下调至3.75%-4%，主席鲍威尔在会后施放的强硬政策信号 冲击了30万亿美元的美债市场。他在记者会上强调，12月进一步降息"绝非板上钉钉"，令全期限美债收 益率跳升至6月初以来高位。 摩根大通资产管理固定收益执行董事Kelsey Berro指出，鲍威尔显然在重置市场对12月降息的概率预 期，使12月成为"真实存在政策悬念"的会议。其表态迫使投资者重估未来降息路径，虽然市场仍认为12 月降息几率偏高，交易员已明显削减押注。 不过，有机构认为，本轮收益率上行空间有限。Fort Washington的Dan Carter称，就业减弱已成为连续 两次降息的主要依据，在12月会议之前这一逻辑难以发生本质逆转。美债此前在就业放缓迹象推动下持 续上行，但通胀仍维持在约3%的年化水平之上，未触及2%目标区间。 摩根大通投资管理的Priya Misra表示，本次决议属于"又一次风险管理型降息"，符合市场定价。但理事 Miran支持一次性更大幅度降息，而堪萨斯城联储主席Schmid主张暂缓降息，这 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first cut in nine months since December [1][3] - The immediate market reaction included a brief decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening of the dollar index, and a mixed performance in U.S. stock markets, with notable gains in Chinese stocks like Baidu and Alibaba [3][5] - The decision to cut rates was influenced by weakening employment data, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in four years, and a significant drop in non-farm payrolls [3][5] Group 2 - Political factors played a role in the decision, as President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve for aggressive rate cuts, but the voting outcome showed a strong consensus with only one dissenting vote [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach indicates its independence from political pressures, with future rate cuts expected to be limited to a total of approximately 125 basis points over the next two years, contrasting with Trump's demand for 300 basis points [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's balanced response to economic data and market expectations reinforces its credibility and independence, marking a "quiet victory" for Chairman Powell [7][10] Group 3 - The interest rate cut is expected to benefit certain participants in the global financial market, particularly investors in emerging market assets, as lower U.S. asset yields may drive capital towards markets like China [7][8] - For China, the influx of capital could enhance market liquidity and stabilize the financial environment, although it may also increase pressure on the renminbi and challenge exports [8][10] - Overall, China is positioned advantageously in the global capital reallocation process, benefiting from its large economy and relatively stable financial system [8][10]

Group 1 - The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above the Fed's target and an upward trajectory [1][2] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlights the risk of falling behind economic conditions due to a rapidly weakening labor market, advocating for decisive action to lower rates [1][4] - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December 2024, with expectations for two more cuts this year [2][3] Group 2 - The FOMC dot plot indicates significant divergence among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 7 officials predicting no further cuts this year and 2 supporting only one more cut [3] - Powell describes the recent rate cut as a "risk management" move aimed at adjusting monetary policy from a "moderately tight" stance to a more neutral position [3][4] - Bowman warns that the FOMC needs to act more swiftly in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, suggesting a need for faster and larger adjustments to monetary policy [4][5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% on September 18, marking the first rate cut in 9 months since December of the previous year[1] - The Fed's economic and inflation forecasts have improved, with GDP growth expectations for this year and next raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8% respectively[5] - The Fed now anticipates three rate cuts for the year, up from two previously expected, indicating a more dovish stance[5] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The Fed is increasingly concerned about the employment market, with recent data showing a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls, indicating a cooling job market[6] - Inflation concerns are also rising, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to the current inflation rate of 2.9%[6] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects a prioritization of employment risks over inflation pressures[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed reactions, which is typical as rate cuts often signal underlying economic concerns[13] - In contrast, global markets, including Japan and Europe, experienced strong gains, highlighting the positive liquidity effects of the Fed's decision[14] - The Chinese stock market saw a significant decline, attributed to profit-taking and the prior anticipation of the rate cut, rather than a lack of dovishness from the Fed[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to continue, potentially exceeding current expectations, influenced by rising employment risks and consumer confidence declines[7] - The potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair by President Trump could lead to more aggressive rate cuts in the future[12] - Long-term trends for precious metals remain bullish, as the Fed's actions may weaken the dollar's credibility[16]

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Global major asset performance this week shows stocks outperforming bonds, commodities, and REITs, with MSCI Global Stock Index rising by 0.99% [1] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.15% compared to MSCI Developed Markets at 0.97% [2] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 5.09%, leading global stock indices, while the U.S. stock indices reached historical highs [2] - In developed markets, the U.S. indices (Nasdaq +2.21%, S&P 500 +1.22%, Dow Jones +1.05%) performed well, while European indices showed weakness [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices fluctuated, starting at $68.47 per barrel and settling at $66.68, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.46% [3] - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,685.30 per ounce, increasing by 1.16% this week, while silver rose by 2.13% to $43.08 per ounce [3] Group 4: Bond Market Developments - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, impacting U.S. Treasury yields [4][6] - European countries saw an increase in ten-year government bond yields, with the UK rising by 8.2 basis points to 4.714% [4] Group 5: Economic Data Highlights - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating continued consumer spending [5] - The Eurozone's August CPI growth was 2.0%, slightly below the expected 2.1%, suggesting easing inflationary pressures [5] Group 6: Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting acknowledged rising inflation levels and adjusted GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years [6][7] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates but indicated a shift in its approach by starting to reduce ETF holdings [7] Group 7: REITs Market Overview - Global REITs performance varied, with the STOXX Global 1800 REITs Index declining by 1.25%, while U.S. REITs showed positive earnings growth in various sectors [13][14] - The healthcare REITs are expected to maintain relative earnings growth advantages, while retail REITs show stable growth [13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% [1] - The market had anticipated this decision, but the reaction was mixed, with initial excitement in the stock market followed by a decline, and the dollar index showing volatility [1] - The Fed's decision reflects concerns over a weakening labor market, as the language in their statement shifted from "robust labor market" to "slowing job growth and a slight increase in unemployment" [3] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed worries about the labor market, noting that both supply and demand are cooling, with significant downside risks [5] - The U.S. GDP growth rate has dropped to around 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, indicating a potential economic slowdown [5] - Inflation remains a concern, with recent data showing an uptick, and the Fed has raised its inflation expectations for the next two years, predicting a return to the 2% target only by 2028 [5] Group 3 - Tariffs are contributing approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to core inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding further rate cuts [7] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" move, prioritizing fears of job market decline over concerns about inflation [7] - There is internal division within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some officials advocating for more aggressive cuts while others caution against further reductions [16] Group 4 - Powell's cautious demeanor during the press conference reflects significant political pressure, as he emphasized the Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence [9][11] - The Fed's approach to future policy is described as "data-dependent," indicating that decisions will be based on economic indicators rather than external pressures [12][14] - The current economic environment suggests a gradual approach to monetary easing, rather than a rapid influx of liquidity, which could lead to different implications for various asset classes [18][22] Group 5 - The impact of the Fed's actions on different markets varies, with potential benefits for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the tech sector, due to improved dollar liquidity [18] - In contrast, the A-share market may see selective foreign investment, favoring companies with global competitiveness in sectors like renewable energy and AI [20] - The Chinese central bank is unlikely to follow suit with immediate rate cuts, focusing instead on targeted measures to support the economy [20]

但事实果真如此吗？ 如果我们深入分析美联储发布的官方声明、利率点阵图，以及鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话，便会发现这次降息并非政治角力的结 果，而更像是技术官僚，基于对经济现实的审慎评估后做出的回应，是对市场敲响的一记警钟。 市场反应冷淡：这不是欢呼，而是预警 如果这是一场"胜利"，为何市场反应如此反常？ 降息消息公布后，道琼斯工业平均指数仅出现小幅上涨，而纳斯达克综合指数和标准普尔500指数反而双双 收跌，其中科技股更是领跌。与此同时，黄金价格大幅跳水，美元汇率也一改之前的下跌趋势，转为上涨。 这一切都与人们预期的"降息狂欢"景象大相径 庭，反而透露出投资者们的一丝警惕与不安。 在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔明确指出："通胀仍然处于高位，且商品价格上涨正在推动通胀，这一趋势可能会持续下去。" 他坦诚地指出了当前经济所面临的 复杂局面： 一方面，就业市场表现疲软，失业率攀升至4.3%，创下两年来的新高； 另一方面，通胀具有粘性，8月份核心消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长 率仍然高达3.1%。 正是在这种"滞胀风险初现"的背景下，美联储才最终决定降息。这次降息并非为了刺激经济增长，而是一种"风险管理型降息"——即在就业下行 ...