以下文章来源于望京博格投基 ，作者望京博格 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 望京博格 来源：雪球 望京博格投基 . 记录望京博格投资基金的故事 最近 ， 感谢雪球邀请我写一篇有关投资故事的文章 。 思来想去 ， 临近年底 ， 不如写一篇公开实盘十年的总结 ， 也算为今年的投资提前画个句号 。 从2016年5月公开晒实盘 ， 到2025年12月 ， 已近十年 。（ 当然 ， 实际投资已有二十余年 ， 十年仅是公开记录的时间 。 ） 这里特别强调 ， 我所谓的 " 晒实盘 " ， 是指利用公开平台的系统功能 ， 对实盘或组合业绩作展示 ， 而非每日贴图自证 。 毕竟 ， 网上PS业绩图太多 ， 实无必要 。 十年光阴 ， 感慨万千 ， 我也老了十岁 。 实盘金额从最初的100万左右 ， 增长至如今的1000万左右 。累计收益219.7% ， 复合年化约13.78% 。 这个收益在短线炒作者眼中或许不算亮眼 ， 但对我而言 ， 十年磨砺出此结果 ， 已很知足 —— 因我走的非 " 赌一把 " 之路 ， 而是一步步跟随 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that annual rebalancing of indices is a systematic process governed by transparent rules rather than subjective market judgments, highlighting the importance of understanding these rules for effective investment strategies [5][8][11]. Group 1: Annual Rebalancing - The second Friday of December marks the annual rebalancing day for most indices, leading to changes in sample stocks and their valuations [5][6]. - Criticism often arises regarding the inclusion of high-performing stocks and the exclusion of underperforming ones, but these changes are a result of established rules rather than market speculation [6][10]. - Understanding that rebalancing reflects adherence to rules rather than market sentiment is crucial for investors [8][35]. Group 2: Market Capitalization Indices - Market capitalization indices, such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50, aim to represent key companies in the market based on size and liquidity, rather than seeking to capitalize on market fluctuations [16][17]. - These indices naturally exhibit a tendency to include companies that have increased in size and performance while excluding those that have declined, which can be misinterpreted as "buying high and selling low" [18][19]. - The design of market cap indices prioritizes transparency and alignment with economic structures over short-term gains [20][21]. Group 3: Strategy Indices - Strategy indices, like dividend indices, focus on specific factors such as dividend yield rather than market capitalization [24][25]. - These indices adjust their components based on the stability of dividend payments, leading to a different risk-return profile compared to market cap indices [28]. - The mechanism of strategy indices allows for continuous alignment with predetermined financial metrics, rather than predicting future market movements [27][28]. Group 4: Understanding Index Characteristics - Market capitalization indices and strategy indices serve different purposes and are not mutually exclusive; they address distinct investment needs [31][32]. - Market cap indices provide a baseline for market returns, while strategy indices can be used for risk management and income generation [32][33]. - Misinterpretation of indices often stems from short-term emotional reactions rather than a proper understanding of their long-term rules [34][35].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that for most investors, high selling and low buying strategies do not yield high success rates, and focusing on the intrinsic value of a company's stock is more beneficial than reacting to short-term fluctuations [1][2] - Investors should prioritize companies with stable business models, good growth prospects, excellent management teams, and sustainable profitability, as these factors provide solid support for stock prices [2][3] - Frequent trading can lead to increased investment costs due to transaction fees, which can accumulate and significantly erode investment returns, potentially turning profits into losses [2][3] Group 2 - Maintaining a long-term perspective does not mean ignoring market changes; investors should regularly assess the fundamentals of their investments to ensure continued growth potential [3] - Studies show that investors who trade frequently often achieve lower returns compared to those who hold stocks for the long term, as increased trading frequency raises investment risks [3]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 大唐炼金师 来源：雪球 价值投资不是长期投资 ， 长期往往是结果 ， 而不是目的 ， 价值投资之所以是价值投资 ， 是因为它的判断依据是价值 ， 如果一只股票是自己 能力圈内比较优质的资产 ， 那当然可以一直拿着 。 但如果一家公司已经变质 ， 或者价格涨到有很大的泡沫 ， 以至于需要未来很多年业绩的增长来消化估值 ， 那我们还在那傻乎乎的拿着 ， 那未 免有点太教条主意了 ， 说教条主义也不准确 ， 因为价值投资根本也没人提这个教条啊 ， 价值投资的集大者巴菲特也说 ： " 我们要专注于长期目标 ， 并不代表我们就不注重短期结果 。 毕竟 ， 如果五年或十年前 ， 我们考虑的是长远问题 ， 那时我们采取的行动现 在也应该有回报了 。 如果总是信心十足地播种 ， 却一再得到令人失望的收成 ， 那或许就需要考虑农夫本身是不是有问题 ， 也或许是这块地根本就不行 ， 投资者必 须要清楚 ， 对于某些公司甚至某些产业而言 ， 根本就没有什么长期战略可言 —— 出自1992年伯克希尔年报 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the mathematical logic behind dividend indices, highlighting their ability to implement a "buy low, sell high" strategy through dividend yield adjustments as stock prices fluctuate [1][2]. Group 1: Mechanism of "Buy Low, Sell High" - Valuation is a core indicator for determining price levels in investments, with dividend yield serving as a filter for high-valuation stocks in dividend indices [2]. - Data from the past five years shows that newly included companies in the CSI Dividend Index have significantly higher P/E ratios compared to those removed, demonstrating the "buy low, sell high" characteristic of the indices [2][6]. - The sensitivity of the "sell high" mechanism is evident, as 15% of companies removed from the dividend index had price increases exceeding 30% in the previous year, compared to only 6% in the CSI 300 [6]. Group 2: Dividend Yield Dynamics - The largest weight stock in the CSI Dividend Index, Ningbo Huaxiang, has a dividend yield of only 1.6%, which is below the index average of 4%, raising questions about the core logic of dividend strategies [8]. - This situation illustrates the effectiveness of the dividend mechanism, as the stock's price surged over 200% while maintaining stable dividends, leading to a lower yield [8]. - The annual rebalancing of the index automatically removes stocks with reduced yields due to price increases, replacing them with new stocks that have higher yields and more attractive valuations [8]. Group 3: Industry Composition and Resilience - There is a common misconception that the dividend index is limited to specific sectors like banking and coal; however, the essence of the index is its focus on high dividend yields rather than fixed industries [9][12]. - The weight of the banking sector in the index has changed significantly over the years, currently at 23%, while coal has increased to 17%, showcasing the dynamic nature of the index [10]. - The dividend index operates on a principle of "ironclad dividends, fluid industries," maintaining a focus on high dividend standards regardless of market trends, which enhances its resilience during market fluctuations [12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The "buy low, sell high" strategy of the dividend index is not about timing the market but is achieved through strict dividend yield selection rules, ensuring a disciplined investment approach [13]. - The index does not attempt to predict market peaks or troughs but reallocates funds to the most cost-effective high dividend assets through annual rebalancing [13]. - The investment wisdom lies in constructing a simple, executable system that aligns with long-term trends, allowing investors to benefit from consistent dividend income and capital gains without extensive analysis [13].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with Bitcoin's price fluctuating around key resistance and support levels, indicating indecision among traders [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Bitcoin has not yet established a firm breakthrough above $88,300, with a recent peak at $89,183 being labeled as a false breakout [2]. - The current price action suggests a consolidation phase, with both bullish and bearish positions facing challenges due to the lack of clear direction [1][4]. - Ethereum's price movements are closely tied to Bitcoin's performance, indicating that Bitcoin's trends will significantly influence Ethereum's market behavior [4]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on timely profit-taking and avoiding prolonged positions to mitigate potential losses [1]. - Key support and resistance levels have been identified: Bitcoin's resistance at $88,300 and support at $84,800, while Ethereum's range is between $2,966 and $2,835 [4]. - Suggested trading strategies include entering long positions near support levels with tight stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively [4].

Equity Market Review - The core viewpoint is that the trend remains bullish, awaiting a breakthrough, with A-shares experiencing significant fluctuations due to tariff impacts, similar to previous market behaviors in April [1] - The market has shifted to a wider trading channel, making high-selling and low-buying strategies more effective as each dip is followed by higher lows, indicating a strong upward trend [2] - Normal corrections are expected after significant gains, driven by profit-taking psychology and external factors like trade disputes, but the long-term confidence in China's economy remains strong [2][3] - The market's upward movement is supported by expectations rather than current realities, with investors more inclined to bet on rising prices rather than declines [3] - A solid economic recovery would further strengthen the upward trend, while ongoing policy support can prevent significant downturns, making corrections good opportunities for accumulation [3][4] Bond Market Review - The bond market outlook is less optimistic than equities but still positive, with a core conclusion of favorable support and a mid-term positive trend [5] - The fundamental backdrop is influenced by supply-demand mismatches, with PPI remaining negative for 36 consecutive months, but recent policy shifts indicate a change in attitude towards economic quality and pricing [6] - Recent government policies aim to maintain liquidity and promote lower financing costs, which is positive for the bond market, although interest rates are already at low levels [6] - Technical indicators show a significant oversold condition in the bond market, suggesting a potential rebound phase, with ten-year government bonds being a key investment choice due to their balance of yield and volatility [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the trend of short-term trading among retail investors in the mutual fund market, particularly focusing on popular funds in the technology sector and other high-performing categories [1][4][5] Group 1: Short-term Trading Trends - Retail investors are increasingly engaging in short-term trading strategies, utilizing funds with a 7-day or 30-day redemption fee waiver to capitalize on market fluctuations [1] - Investors are actively seeking funds that allow for quick entry and exit, avoiding long-term investments in broad index funds [1][4] - Fund bloggers are also participating in short-term trading, showcasing their transactions and attracting followers who wish to replicate their strategies [2][3] Group 2: Popular Funds and Performance - The "Zhonghang Opportunity Leading Mixed Fund" has seen significant growth, with its scale increasing to 132.31 billion yuan, a 12.47-fold increase from the previous quarter, and a net value growth rate of 88.64% for A shares and 88.37% for C shares [4] - The "Zhongou Digital Economy Mixed Fund" experienced a scale increase of 114.94 billion yuan, with a net value growth rate exceeding 70% [4] - The "Yongying Technology Selection Mixed Fund" and "Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Selection Mixed Fund" have also attracted substantial investment, with high subscription and redemption rates indicating a high turnover among investors [5] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Many investors are exhibiting a pattern of rapid buying and selling, with some funds experiencing nearly 100% turnover rates in subscriptions and redemptions [5] - The article highlights the importance of rational decision-making and risk management, suggesting that investors should avoid trying to predict short-term market movements [6]

Core Insights - The resurgence of short-term trading strategies among retail investors, particularly the "7-day trading method," has gained popularity in the current hot equity market, especially in technology and gold funds [1][2] - Several high-performing technology-themed funds have seen their assets grow significantly, with some funds experiencing over tenfold increases in size due to inflows and rising net values [1][4] Group 1: Short-term Trading Strategies - Retail investors are increasingly engaging in short-term trading of funds, focusing on those with a 7-day redemption fee waiver, aiming for quick profits [2][3] - Fund bloggers with large followings are actively sharing their trading activities, contributing to the trend of short-term fund trading among retail investors [3] Group 2: Fund Performance and Growth - The "Zhonghang Opportunity Leading Mixed Fund" saw its size increase to 132.31 billion yuan, a 12.47-fold growth from the previous quarter, driven by a return rate exceeding 190% over six months [4] - The "Zhongou Digital Economy Mixed Fund" also experienced significant growth, with its size jumping from 1.5 billion yuan to over 10 billion yuan, and a net value growth rate of over 70% [5] - The "Yongying Technology Selection Mixed Fund" and other funds from Yongying have become favorites among investors, with substantial inflows and high turnover rates in subscriptions and redemptions [6] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Many investors are rapidly buying and selling funds, indicating a trend of short holding periods, which may lead to increased pressure on fund stability and management decisions [7] - Fund managers are advising investors to adopt a more rational and long-term investment approach, cautioning against the risks of frequent trading and the potential for missing out on significant returns [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of making the right decisions over merely executing tasks correctly, highlighting that understanding the correct path to wealth is crucial [1] - It discusses the significance of market trends and the potential impact of price levels on future performance, particularly in the context of gold prices [1][2] Market Analysis - The gold market has recently experienced a significant upward trend, with a focus on the critical price levels of $4180 and $4000, which serve as key support and resistance points [1][5] - If the price of gold falls below $4000, it may decline further to the range of $3700-$3800, representing a typical adjustment of 50% from the recent upward movement [2] Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests a range-bound approach between $4180 and $4000, advocating for high selling and low buying within this interval until a breakout occurs [5] - The article outlines that a breach of $4000 would indicate a continuation of bearish sentiment, while a breakout above $4180 would signal the end of the short-term correction [5]