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五矿期货农产品早报2025-11-26-20251126
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 00:42
农产品早报 2025-11-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号:F0273729 交易咨询号:Z0002942 邮箱:wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03116327 交易咨询号:Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03114441 交易咨询号:Z0022498 电话:028-86133280 邮箱:sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆震荡,巴西升贴水上涨,大豆到港成本稳定。周二国内豆粕现货持稳,华东报 2980 元/ 吨,豆粕成交一般、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 231.73 万吨,上周压榨大豆 233.44 万吨,上周饲企库存天数为 7.98 天环比下降 0.25 天,港口大豆上周去库,但同比仍较高,豆粕库存回 升至 100 万吨以上,因压榨量较大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西大豆产区 11 月降雨水平同比往年略低,12 月预报雨量较多,预计播种较为顺利。11 月 USDA 月报 预估 25/26 年度全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平,同时,全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转 ...
鸡蛋周报:需求表现一般,蛋价稳中有落-20251117
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 07:54
目录 鸡蛋周报:需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号:F3013727 咨询从业证号:Z0014425 GALAXYFUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 1 227/82/4 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.95元/斤,较上周五上涨0.02元/斤,主销区均价3.21元/斤,较上周五上涨0.15元/斤。周初,市场延续上周反 ...
后期供给压力不减 鸡蛋或呈现宽幅震荡偏弱走势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-13 07:05
Core Viewpoint - The main trend in egg futures is a significant decline, with the leading contract dropping to 3030.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.97% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The egg market is expected to exhibit a wide range of fluctuations with a weak bias, primarily due to a high supply level and slow culling of older hens, despite a short-term decrease in new laying hens [2] - The demand side remains weak, influenced by cooler weather, which has not led to a noticeable recovery in food processing and catering channels [2] - Cost support from soybean meal prices is limited due to the overall supply-demand balance in the egg market [2] Group 2: Price Predictions - If the culling of older hens accelerates, there may be opportunities to buy on dips, while a slower culling process suggests a continued wide range of fluctuations in prices [3][5] - Egg prices are expected to continue their downward trend until at least March next year, driven by increased supply from new laying hens and a decrease in demand post-promotional events [4][5]
建信期货鸡蛋月报-20251031
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 13:09
Report Information - Report Title: Egg Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [1] - Key Words: Egg Market, Supply and Demand, Price Forecast Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: As of the end of October, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%, ending 9 consecutive months of growth. It is expected that the egg - laying hen inventory will remain high in the first quarter of the fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [6][22][38]. - Demand side: In October, egg sales were weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is unlikely to be concentrated, and overall demand is weak due to factors such as the substitution of vegetables and pork and market pessimism [6][33][38]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures, the upside is limited, and it is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year [6][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - Spot: In October, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November as the market waits for accelerated elimination to balance high inventory [8]. - Futures: The main contract switched to the 12 - contract. The price followed the spot trend. It is recommended to treat the current rise as a rebound and consider short - selling at high prices. The fundamental improvement may take a long time [9]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Laying Hens - Price: In October, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown culled hens was 4.39 yuan/jin, continuing to decline from September and at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The price has been trending down since August [10][18]. - Quantity: As of October 30, the weekly culling volume has been stable in September - October, slightly higher than the previous three years. The culling age has advanced, and it is estimated that the culling volume will remain stable or slightly increase in November [18][20]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - Inventory: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [22]. - Replenishment: In October, the monthly output of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, a decrease from September and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The replenishment enthusiasm may be affected by feed costs in the future [23]. - Laying Rate: In late October, the laying rate was about 91.94%, following the seasonal pattern [25]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In October, the breeding profit was weak, at a very low level compared with the same period in previous years. It is expected to continue to operate at a low level in November [29][32]. 3. Demand Side - Sales Volume: In October, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas continued to be weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is expected to remain weak [6][33][38]. - Inventory: As of October 30, the inventory in the circulation link was at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory was still high, reflecting the weak demand this year [36]. - Substitute Prices: The pig price is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, currently at a low level. Vegetable prices are expected to rise seasonally in November - December, which may support egg prices [36][37]. 4. Later Outlook and Strategy - Spot: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November [40]. - Futures: It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. For options, a wide - straddle double - selling strategy is recommended. The risk lies in the unexpected rise of spot prices in low - price areas [40]. - Strategy: For farmers and spot traders, the spot price may fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures speculators, it is recommended to use interval rolling short - selling operations and pay attention to the spot price in low - price areas [40].
华联期货鸡蛋周报:现货止跌,盘面宽幅震荡-20251026
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 13:38
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of eggs is strong while the demand is weak, and the egg price is still under pressure. The egg futures and spot prices have repeatedly hit new lows, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage. It is recommended to hold the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. The mid - to - long - term capacity reduction process will dominate the probability of market reversal [5][6] - The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference operating range of 2800 - 3200. In terms of options, out - of - the money call options can be sold [6] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - long Views and Strategies - The spot price of eggs has stopped falling, with the main - producing area's average price at 2.91 yuan/jin, a 1.75% increase from last week. The national in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, with great supply pressure. The short - term egg price has touched a new low, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has increased, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [5][13] - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and an 8.87% year - on - year increase. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, resulting in a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory. It is expected that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory in October will continue to decrease slightly, but the supply surplus is still the main theme [5] - Considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses the price. It is expected that the egg price will continue to be under pressure. In October, the demand weakens, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The average spot price of eggs in the main - producing areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, a 0.05 - yuan increase from last week, with a 1.75% increase. The low - price area reports 2.53 yuan/jin. The overall supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the egg price is still under pressure [13] 3. Supply Side - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, leading to a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory [23] - In September, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chicken seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.8 million, a 2.83% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the chicken - seedling price will still have a slight downward risk next month, with an average monthly price of about 2.85 yuan/feather [29] - This week, the total出栏量 of old hens in 19 representative markets in 10 key producing areas was 609,400, a 1.55% month - on - month increase. The increase in the出栏 volume of old hens has slowed down, and the average slaughter age of culled chickens this week is 497 days [37] - The production - link inventory has increased significantly. Although the storage environment has improved, there is still a bearish sentiment in the market, which is negative for the egg price [42] 4. Demand Side - The egg price shows obvious seasonal characteristics within a year, mainly due to the supply - demand relationship, especially the short - term changes are mainly reflected in the demand side [57] 5. Cost Side - The price fluctuations of corn and soybean meal directly affect the price of egg - laying hen feed raw materials. This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease [65] 6. Cost and Profit - This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease. The farming profit is - 0.50 yuan/jin, a 0.06 - yuan month - on - month increase, with a 10.71% increase. It is expected that the farming profit in October will decline synchronously [65][73]
鸡蛋主力合约上涨超3% 期货盘面短期呈现强势状态
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-24 07:21
Core Insights - The egg market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main futures contract rising over 3% on October 24 [1] Price Trends - The average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.83 yuan per jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan from the previous day, while the average price in major sales areas was 3.04 yuan per jin, up 0.03 yuan [2] - Inventory levels have slightly decreased, with the average inventory in the production segment at 1.03 days, down 0.01 days, and in the circulation segment at 1.1 days, down 0.02 days [2] Production Data - As of the end of September, the monthly stock of laying hens was approximately 1.368 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% from 1.365 billion at the end of August and 1.356 billion at the end of July, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.0% from 1.29 billion [2] Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the high inventory of laying hens and the cautious purchasing behavior of traders are currently pressuring egg prices, although the market's willingness to replenish stocks may support long-term prices [3] - Jianxin Futures notes that despite current prices being at historical lows, high supply levels will persist due to ongoing culling processes, suggesting a bearish outlook on short-term price movements [3]
鸡蛋周报:节后需求尚可,蛋价稳中有增-20251017
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 11:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, and demand, indicating that the egg market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with weak egg prices and reduced breeding profits. It is expected that in the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices will remain weak, and suggests that previous short positions be closed for profit [5][10][13][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, the same as last Friday. Due to continuous rainy days at the beginning of the week, market demand declined, inventory accumulated, and egg prices fell below the feed cost. After the weather improved, terminal replenishment was active, inventory decreased, and egg prices rebounded slightly. However, overall, egg prices were still weak [5]. - After the National Day, the demand in the egg - laying hen market weakened, the downstream consumption was insufficient, and the confidence of the breeding end in the future was insufficient. The price of old hens was under pressure to decline. As the price of old hens fell to a low point, the breeding end's reluctance to sell gradually emerged, and the price of old hens rebounded slightly at the end of the week [5]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - At the beginning of the week, affected by egg prices, the enthusiasm of each link to purchase was average, and the inventory in the producing areas was high. Later, as egg prices bottomed out, the breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices, and the inventory decreased. The shipment volume in the main producing areas of national egg - laying hens showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the week of October 16, the slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [10]. - In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6%, higher than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Without considering delayed or concentrated slaughter, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [10]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of October 16, the corn price was around 2,271 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for eggs. This week, the average egg price continued to decline, and the breeding profit decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, after the National Day, affected by the weather, market sales decreased slightly. After egg prices bottomed out, the market's bargain - hunting sentiment increased, and sales increased. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the low prices of substitutes weaken the positive support for egg demand. As of September 11, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7,374 tons, an increase of 2.7% compared with the previous week [16]. - After the National Day holiday, due to bad weather, transportation was restricted, and the inventory in each link was high. In the second half of the week, as the weather improved and egg prices rebounded, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [16]. - This week, the vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly. On October 16, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 96.51, and as of October 15, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.33 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The inventory of laying hens on the supply side remains high, while the demand side is generally weak. It is expected that egg prices will be weak in the short - term, and the nearby contracts are likely to fluctuate weakly. - Unilateral: Close previous short positions for profit. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17].
瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20250819
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 08:58
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint Currently, the laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the newly opened production pressure of the laying hens supplemented in the early stage is relatively large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. Meanwhile, the terminal demand is weak, and the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious, leading to sluggish demand. The willingness of breeding enterprises to sell at low prices to reduce inventory increases, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end remains in a loss state. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. From the perspective of the futures market, under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3065 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 48 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 39282 hands. The monthly spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of egg futures is 18 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 6 yuan. The trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 411040 hands, an increase of 29360 hands. The number of registered egg warehouse receipts is 0 hands [2]. 现货 Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period. The basis (spot - futures) is 134 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 48 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27. The national culled laying hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89. The average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.25 yuan. The national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33. The average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.26 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.05 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan. The average age of culled hens nationwide is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.79 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7605 tons, an increase of 76 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.80 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [2].
瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20250814
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 10:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Currently, the egg market is facing an oversupply situation due to high laying - hen inventory, new - laying pressure from previously replenished hens, and continuous cold - storage egg outflows. Meanwhile, terminal demand is weak as high - temperature weather increases demand for egg substitutes. This has led to lower - than - expected spot prices and continuous losses for the breeding sector. However, with school - opening preparations and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, near - month contracts tend to be weak under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while far - month contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3189 yuan/500 kilograms, down 88 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28965 hands, up 641 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is 98 yuan/500 kilograms, up 12 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 310634 hands, up 157772 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 3 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.03 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week change of 0; the basis (spot - futures) is - 158 yuan/500 kilograms, up 88 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying - hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59; the average price of day - old chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, with a week - on - week change of 0; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week change of 0; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.31 yuan/hen, down 0.15 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 11.34 yuan/kg, down 0.42 yuan; the national culling age of laying hens is 501 days, down 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of pork is 4.74 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.39 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.23 days, up 0.12 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.08 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7529 tons, down 368 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 5.99 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.89 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2].
鸡蛋月报:存栏去化节奏与库存拐点博弈,期货行情如何布局-20250801
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in July experienced a "sharp decline - rebound - decline" roller - coaster行情. The current supply - demand contradiction is sharp. With high inventory and a continuous increase in newly - laid hens, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Although the peak - season market is approaching, it is restricted by weak consumer recovery and resistance to high prices. It is expected that the differentiated trend of the egg futures market, with near - term weakness and long - term strength, will continue. [8][40] - The report suggests continuing the 09 - 01 contract reverse spread strategy and continuously monitoring capacity reduction and downstream demand changes. [9][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Last month, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509. The JD2508 contract hit a record low since its listing this week and continued to decline in subsequent trading days. The JD2509 contract showed an overall weak range - bound trend. As of July 31, the main JD2509 contract closed at 3522 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.45%. [5][12] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - In the main production areas, egg prices rose after falling to the lowest point of the year in mid - July, but then declined in the second half of the month due to factors such as excessive price increases inhibiting consumption and an increase in newly - laid hens. As of July 31, the average price in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, up 0.53 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. - In the main sales areas, egg prices showed a "first - down - then - up" fluctuation. As of July 31, the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, up 0.5 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. [17] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Laying Hen Inventory - In July, the laying hen inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was close to 1.3 billion, a record high, and it is expected to exceed 1.3 billion in August. The expansion of production capacity is mainly due to the slowdown of old - hen culling by farmers in a state of weak profit, forming a negative cycle of "weak profit - slow culling - high inventory". [7][21] 3.2.2 Old Hen Price - As of July 31, the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 5.89 yuan per catty, up 26.12% from the beginning of July. The market has no obvious signs of increased old - hen supply, and farmers still have confidence in the peak - season egg market, so the enthusiasm for culling is not high. [24] 3.2.3 Chicken Chick Price - Affected by the market situation of strong supply and weak demand, the price of commercial - layer chicks continued to decline in July. The average price in July was 3.59 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95%. The pressure on the profit side weakened the replenishment motivation of farmers, and the low utilization rate of hatching eggs by breeding enterprises further suppressed the chick price. [29] 3.2.4 Old - Hen Culling Progress - In July, the culling volume of old hens continued to decline, showing a decreasing trend. The culling rhythm was affected by factors such as egg - price fluctuations, farming expectations, and demand changes. The average culling age of old hens fluctuated slightly, with an overall range of 501 - 504 days. [34] 3.2.5 Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - In July, the laying hen farming cost fluctuated slightly in the range of 3.53 - 3.54 yuan per catty, showing a slight downward trend. The farming profit continued to improve, with the loss narrowing from 0.95 yuan per catty at the beginning of the month to 0.29 yuan per catty at the end of the month. [39]