短期供给扰动，预计 锡价偏强震荡 锡周报 2025/11/29 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：10月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺略有缓解。但短期刚果（金）冲突恶化，对锡矿运输造成扰动，市场担忧情绪有所 升温。根据中国海关公布的数据，10月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量11632实物吨（折合约4938金属吨），同比下降15.74%，环比增加43.36%。其 中从缅甸的进口量为2367吨（折合约861金属吨），同比下降43.64%，环比增加1.50%；除缅甸外10月从其他国家合计进口量为9266吨（折合 约4077金属吨），同比下降5.90%，环比增加57.05%。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，出口量维持低位，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，短期开工率持稳，但进一步上行动力不足。 江西地区则因废料显著减少，粗锡供应不足，精锡 ...

有色金属日报 2025-11-28 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 有色金属小组 王梓铧 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 铜 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 地缘担忧有所回温，离岸人民币小幅贬值，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收跌 0.21%至 10930 美 元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 87050 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 675 至 157175 吨，注销仓单比例抬升， Cash/3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment value of significant events, industry chain companies, and key policy interpretations, particularly focusing on the role of a specific company in the PCB sector related to Huawei's products [1] Group 1: Company Insights - The company is a key supplier in the PCB field for Huawei, particularly for products used in 100-800G optical modules [1] - It has the capability for mass production of 800G switch PCB products and HDI manufacturing for AI servers [1] - The company is identified as the third-largest shareholder of Shenghong Technology [1]

Industry Overview and Price Trends - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, leading to increasing fundamental pressure on steel prices, which are expected to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [2] - Copper supply remains tight due to accidents at major overseas mines, providing support for copper prices. China's significant waste copper imports may face constraints if the EU restricts exports, potentially tightening domestic copper supply next year [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand in the domestic off-season and a lack of support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [2] - Gold prices face upward pressure due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials [2] - The lithium industry shows positive fundamentals, with adjustments to trading rules for lithium carbonate contracts aimed at curbing speculative behavior, leading to increased price volatility in the short term [2] - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate without significant improvement in downstream demand [2] Weekly Strategy - For the steel industry, the implementation of steady growth policies is expected to improve the competitive landscape and enhance profitability, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3] - The copper industry is anticipated to benefit from tightening global supply due to accidents at major mines, while demand is expected to rise in key sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [3] - In the aluminum sector, the release of new alumina project capacities is expected to keep alumina prices low, while demand from new energy vehicles and high-voltage power grids may support aluminum prices [4] - Gold prices will be influenced by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, with long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases enhancing gold's attractiveness [4] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to upgraded export controls, with strategic value in resources and advancements in robotics and new energy sectors driving future demand [4] - The cobalt market is projected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from new energy vehicles and consumer electronics is expected to support prices [5] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) receiving "overweight" ratings [6]

Group 1: Longxin Zhongke (688047) - The company is the only domestic CPU manufacturer that builds an independent information technology system based on its own instruction set, independent of x86 and ARM architectures, establishing a competitive edge in the open market [5][6] - Longxin's product lineup includes the Longxin 1 MCU, Longxin 2 SoC, and Longxin 3 CPU series, which have significantly improved cost-performance ratios, positioning the company for a new growth cycle [5][6] - The demand for domestic CPUs is driven by the acceleration of AI server and AIPC shipments, with a projected 24.3% growth in global AI server shipments in 2025, and a 34% penetration rate for AIPC in mainland China [6][7] - The company maintains control over its core IP and instruction set, allowing for x86/ARM instruction translation, which enhances its competitive position in the market [7][9] - Longxin's focus on the domestic market and gradual expansion into the open market is supported by its cost-performance advantages, with expectations of a 30-50% improvement in cost-performance for terminal chips and 50-100% for server chips over the next three years [9][10] Group 2: Shengde Xintai (300881) - The company operates a dual business model focusing on high-end pipes and automotive components, benefiting from both traditional energy and new energy sectors [12][13] - Revenue growth is notable, with increases of 64.1% in 2023 and 34.4% in 2024, and a reported revenue of 2.325 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [12][13] - The company has a strong market position in the small-diameter stainless steel pipe market for power station boilers, with a focus on high-tech products that yield higher profit margins compared to ordinary steel pipes [13][14] - The demand for high-end boiler pipes is expected to remain strong due to the anticipated addition of 47.44 million kilowatts of new thermal power capacity in 2024 [13][14] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.043 billion, 3.220 billion, and 3.411 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 240 million, 276 million, and 309 million yuan [14]

Group 1 - The ChiNext 50 Index has successfully launched its ETF-DR in Thailand, marking it as the first depositary receipt linked to a Chinese ETF in the Thai market and the first of its kind to go overseas from China [1] - The underlying asset of the ChiNext 50 ETF-DR is the Invesco Great Wall ChiNext 50 ETF, which tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, focusing on high-tech industries such as new energy, high-end manufacturing, and biomedicine [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index component stocks reported an average revenue growth of 21.07% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with net profit growth averaging 16.63% [1] Group 2 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is committed to the internationalization of ChiNext products, having facilitated the listing of multiple ChiNext index products across over 10 global exchanges, creating a cross-border product network [2] - The launch of the ChiNext 50 ETF-DR is seen as an opportunity to enhance the international investment level of the ChiNext, promoting Chinese technological innovation to global investors [2] - A roadshow was organized to introduce quality companies in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new energy to Thai investors [2] Group 3 - EVE Energy, a leading company in the new energy battery sector, reported a battery shipment of 34.59 GWh in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.98%, ranking second globally [3] - The company’s energy storage battery shipments reached 48.41 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 35.51%, placing it among the top three globally [3] - EVE Energy plans to continue focusing on lithium battery operations, increasing R&D investment, and enhancing global operational capabilities [3] Group 4 - Lens Technology is expanding its global footprint, having established a production base in Thailand to meet the demand for smart automotive products [3] - The new production facility in Thailand covers over 50,000 square meters and is expected to create approximately 2,000 jobs [3] - The company aims to further establish production bases to provide AI-related hardware products to overseas clients [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half and third quarter of 2025 saw significant year-on-year growth, driven by cost optimization and product structure adjustments [2][3] - The company achieved a gross margin improvement by focusing on high-value niche products and effective cost control measures [3] Group 2: Raw Material Management - The company has implemented strategic stockpiling and flexible procurement measures to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations, while maintaining long-term supply agreements with suppliers [3] - The company does not engage in direct hedging through crude oil futures contracts [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Expansion - The East China Phase II project has a designed capacity of 100,000 tons, currently in the ramp-up phase, with an expected 30% capacity release in the first year [4] - The Southwest production base is designed for 50,000 tons and is expected to be operational within two years [4][5] Group 4: Market Position and Product Strategy - The company’s main downstream sectors are home appliances and automotive, with automotive materials accounting for over 30% of revenue [3] - The company’s core product, modified PP, contributes over 50% to revenue, while modified PA has a significantly higher gross margin but a stable revenue share due to lower usage [5][6] Group 5: Convertible Bond Strategy - The management decided not to redeem the "Sailong Convertible Bond" early to avoid short-term pressure on the stock price, with future decisions to be disclosed in subsequent announcements [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumer electronics sector remains stable, and short-term industry disruptions will not alter the upward trend of the company [1] - Concerns about rising storage prices affecting end consumers and overall profitability in the supply chain are mitigated by long-term agreements with major clients and suppliers [1] - The company's ODM shipment volume is expected to continue growing due to increasing industry penetration and market share among leading ODM manufacturers [1] Group 2 - The company leads in the domestic PC ODM market, with laptop shipments expected to exceed 18 million units in 2025, contributing to over 30% revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company anticipates continued high growth in laptop shipments, with significant contributions expected from North American clients starting in 2026 [2] - The company aims to further enhance its global laptop ODM market share and narrow the gap with Taiwanese manufacturers [2] Group 3 - The data center business is projected to maintain high growth, with expected revenue exceeding 40 billion in 2025, despite geopolitical uncertainties [3] - The company has achieved significant growth in AI servers and general servers, alongside a strong accumulation of cross-platform system R&D capabilities [3] - Future revenue growth in the data center segment is anticipated, with an optimized product structure and steady improvement in profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian's stock price has experienced a significant decline despite maintaining strong fundamentals, raising concerns about its business model and market sentiment [1][2][5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and a net profit of 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52% [2] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 243.17 billion yuan, with net profit growth exceeding 60% [2] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The stock price fell over 30% from its peak on October 30 to November 24, resulting in a market capitalization drop of more than 450 billion yuan [2] - As of November 24, the stock closed at 55.94 yuan, significantly below the target price set by various institutions, which had previously estimated a price around 75 yuan [4] Analyst Expectations - Guosen Securities raised its profit forecast for Industrial Fulian, projecting net profits of 35.64 billion yuan, 69.31 billion yuan, and 87.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - Huaan Securities also provided optimistic growth projections, estimating EPS of 1.82 yuan, 3.36 yuan, and 4.30 yuan for the same period [3] Business Model Concerns - Market worries have shifted from performance growth to potential adjustments in the business model, particularly regarding major clients' strategies in the L10/L11 segments [5][6] - If major clients decide to shift L11 operations in-house or diversify suppliers, it could downgrade Industrial Fulian's role from a high-value integrator to a mere assembler [6] Strategic Responses - Industrial Fulian is focusing on technological upgrades to enhance power efficiency and cooling capabilities for AI servers, which are critical as power consumption increases [7] - The company plans to adjust its share buyback program in response to the stock price drop, aiming to stabilize its market position [7]

Group 1 - A-shares indices collectively strengthened on November 25, with various sectors experiencing broad gains, particularly in education, gaming, precious metals, energy metals, communication equipment, battery, chemical pharmaceuticals, optical electronics, insurance, and consumer electronics [1] - The main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets saw a net inflow of 8.812 billion yuan after seven consecutive trading days of outflows, with 18 sectors experiencing net inflows, notably communication, power equipment, and electronics, each exceeding 3.6 billion yuan [2] - Among the 13 sectors with net outflows, defense and military industry, as well as the computer sector, had the highest outflows, each exceeding 2.7 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - Ten stocks received net inflows exceeding 500 million yuan, with 87 stocks seeing net inflows over 100 million yuan [4] - Yangguang Electric Power led with a net inflow of 1.087 billion yuan, as the photovoltaic sector rebounded significantly, with Yangguang Electric Power rising by 4.95% [5] - PCB concept stock Huidian Co. saw a net inflow of 999.8 million yuan, with its stock price hitting the daily limit, driven by a report from HSBC indicating accelerated AI server iterations [5] Group 3 - Hainan Ruize experienced a net inflow of 104 million yuan at the close, leading the market, while N Haian, Industrial and Commercial Bank, ZTE, and Shennong Seed Industry also saw significant inflows [6][7] - N Haian, which just listed, closed with a 74% increase, focusing on the development and production of giant all-steel engineering machinery tires [8] - In terms of outflows, Xinyi Sheng saw over 100 million yuan in net outflows, with other notable stocks like BlueFocus and Shengguang Group also experiencing significant outflows [9]