Group 1 - The gold market is in a "pre-war state" with international spot gold reaching $3998 per ounce, just shy of the $4000 mark, and domestic gold contracts rising to 918 yuan per gram, up 1.3% from the previous day [1] - The upcoming U.S. GDP data is expected to be a significant catalyst for gold prices, with mixed market sentiment as some anticipate a breakout above $4050 while others expect a dip [3] - Central bank gold purchases are providing strong support for gold prices, with the Chinese central bank increasing its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months and global central banks buying 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] Group 2 - Retail investors are often making poor trading decisions, such as chasing prices without considering transaction costs, which can lead to losses even when gold prices rise [5] - Practical advice for gold purchases includes waiting for potential price dips after the GDP announcement and being cautious with investment strategies, such as not exceeding 15% of total assets in gold [6] - Maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial, as short-term fluctuations may not indicate a sustained bull market, and investors should focus on meeting their price expectations rather than trying to time the market perfectly [6] Group 3 - The market is at a critical juncture, and maintaining composure is more valuable than gold itself, as emotional trading can lead to poor decisions [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the postponement of key economic data releases, including the third-quarter GDP, which was originally scheduled for this week [1] - The lack of federal data is causing policymakers, financial institutions, and businesses to make decisions without critical information, resulting in "blind decision-making" [1] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that in the first four weeks of the government shutdown, businesses contracted with the federal government have incurred losses of approximately $12 billion, with around 65,500 small businesses losing about $3 billion weekly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy remains moderately tight, with no observed secondary impact of tariffs on prices [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained stable interest rates during rising inflation, which is equivalent to a rate cut [1] - Recent GDP data has not altered the outlook on growth trends [1]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated August 29, 2025, covering precious metals and base metals such as gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by JH meeting with Powell dovish remarks; silver is reaching the previous high; copper prices rise as the dollar falls; zinc shows a weak oscillation; lead prices are supported by inventory reduction; tin and aluminum are in range - bound oscillations; alumina has an obvious supply surplus; nickel runs in a narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel oscillates at a low level in the short - term [2] By Metals Precious Metals Gold - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 783.22 with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a 0.29% increase. Comex Gold 2510 had a 0.73% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, inventory, and price spreads are provided [5] Silver - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9377 with a 0.77% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9405.00 with a 0.90% increase. Comex Silver 2510 had a 1.31% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Similar data to gold including trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are presented [5] Base Metals Copper - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,930 with a - 0.33% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 78990 with a 0.08% increase. LME Copper 3M had a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [11][13] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads is provided. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [11][13] Zinc - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22170 with a - 0.63% decrease, and LME Zinc 3M had a - 1.53% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [14][15] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory are given. The US second - quarter GDP data was revised upwards [14][15] Lead - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16910 with a 0.12% increase, and LME Lead 3M had a - 0.08% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [17][18] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory shows a reduction in inventory [17][18] Tin - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 272,680 with a 0.33% increase, and LME Tin 3M had a 0.91% increase. The trend strength is 1 [20][23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are provided [20][23] Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20750, LME Aluminum 3M at 2607. Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 3013, and the casting aluminum alloy's main contract closed at 20350. Trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, - 1 for alumina, and 0 for casting aluminum alloy [24][25] - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, inventory, and industry costs and profits are presented [24][25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 120,990, and stainless steel's main contract closed at 12,850. The trend strengths are both 0 [26][31] - **Fundamentals**: Information on prices, spreads, and industry news such as production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters is provided [26][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly-on-quarter was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment as the main driving force, and the PCE price index remained flat [7]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with potential for limited downward movement in freight rates in the medium - term [8][9]. - Cotton futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure after the new cotton is launched [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Data - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarter was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment growing by 5.7%, and net exports contributing nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth. Consumer spending growth was revised up to 1.6%. The core PCE price index rose 2.5%, unchanged from the initial value [7]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased slightly to 229,000, and the number of continued claims decreased to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [17]. 3.2 Commodity Market Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish remarks influenced the market. The trend strength is 1. The prices of Shanghai gold and Comex gold showed certain increases [12][16][17]. - Silver: It is approaching the previous high. The trend strength is 1. The prices of Shanghai silver and Comex silver also increased [12][16][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: With the decline of the US dollar, the price rose. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year. The trend strength is 1 [12][23]. - Zinc: It is oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0 [12][26]. - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [12][29]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 1 [12][32]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating within a range. Alumina has an obvious supply surplus. Cast aluminum alloy is oscillating within a range. The trend strengths are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [12][36]. - Nickel: It is operating in a narrow - range oscillation. Stainless steel is oscillating at a low level in the short - term. The trend strengths are both 0 [12][39]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Inventory reduction is limited, and it is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is - 1 [12][45]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the upward space. The trend strength is - 1 [12][48]. - Polysilicon: The upstream inventory is being reduced, and market information should be monitored. The trend strength is - 1 [12][49]. 3.2.4 Building Materials and Metals - Iron Ore: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][52]. - Rebar: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][54]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][55]. - Ferrosilicon: Disturbed by market information, it is oscillating widely within a day. The trend strength is 0 [12][58]. - Silicomanganese: Disturbed by market information, it is oscillating widely within a day. The trend strength is 0 [12][58]. - Coke: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][61]. - Coking Coal: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][61]. 3.2.5 Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is under pressure in the short - term, and the freight rate may have limited downward movement in the medium - term. The 2510 short position should take profit on dips, and attention should be paid to the 12 - 04 positive spread entry opportunity in the next 1 - 2 weeks [8][9]. - Cotton: Concerns about short - term supply shortages and high basis support the price. It is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure after the new cotton is launched [10][71].

Core Viewpoint - Powell indicates that inflation is further from the target compared to the employment market [1] Group 1 - GDP data shows fluctuations on a quarterly basis, which are often revised later [1] - Employment market is considered the best economic data that can be controlled [1]

Core Insights - The performance of GDP data aligns closely with the expectations of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1] Group 1 - The GDP data reflects a consistent trend with the Federal Reserve's forecasts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recently released second-quarter GDP data is significantly better than expected, as stated by Trump [1] Group 2 - The news highlights the positive economic performance indicated by the GDP data, suggesting potential implications for market sentiment and investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump stated that the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates, especially following the release of second-quarter GDP data that exceeded expectations [1] Group 1 - The second-quarter GDP data was released and showed significantly better performance than anticipated [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent decline in spot gold prices following the release of better-than-expected U.S. Q2 GDP data, indicating potential market reactions to economic indicators [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Spot gold has started to decline after the U.S. Q2 GDP data exceeded expectations, suggesting a correlation between economic performance and gold prices [1]. - Current support levels for spot gold are identified between 3319.89 and 3323.11, which are considered the strongest support points at this time [1]. - The sentiment among traders is slightly bearish, with 50.2% of orders being short and 49.8% being long, indicating a predominance of negative sentiment in the market [1].