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PP:C3原料表现偏强,利润暂修复有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The C3 raw material for PP shows strong performance, but the profit repair is currently limited. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep - loss PDH profits [1][2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6737, with a daily increase of 1.22%. The trading volume was 609,818, and the position increased by 22,199 [1] - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 (compared to - 176 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 41 (compared to - 32 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,530 yuan/ton, 6,590 yuan/ton, and 6,630 yuan/ton respectively, all higher than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded again. The upstream pre - sale pressure was temporarily not large, and the mid - stream continued to place orders. The basis weakened, and the trading atmosphere improved, mainly mid - stream transactions [1] - The downstream profit has been repaired with the terminal price increase. The start - up and orders increased last week, but the end - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable, with high warehouse receipts [1] - The PP US - dollar market price remained stable. Overseas suppliers had low enthusiasm for offering to China. Due to the strengthening of the exchange rate and the rise of the domestic market, the downstream continued to make rigid purchases, and the trading was difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The internal valuation of olefins is differentiated, and the valuation of PE in terms of internal - external and upstream profit is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game of existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: The follow - up of new downstream orders weakened, and downstream factories' purchases remained cautious, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of PP is - 1 [3]
国泰君安期货·能源化工:C3产业链周度报告-20251214
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-14 12:20
Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the C3 industry chain by Guotai Junan Futures, covering LPG and propylene segments [1] LPG Part Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short - term, LPG is expected to oscillate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long - term, it remains under pressure [3] Summary by Section Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis: Civilian gas prices have declined in some regions, while the import cost is firm, and the basis has widened significantly. For example, the weekly change of Shandong civilian gas is 8 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shandong civilian gas (main contract) has increased by 128 yuan/ton [9] - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: Asian demand is robust, and the arbitrage space from the US Gulf to the Far East has expanded. The US - to - Far - East freight and the discount of US Gulf propane have changed [24] - Propane price: It remained firm and declined at the end of the week. For instance, the Propane CP M1 increased by 12.00 dollars/ton with a 2.39% increase [31] Supply - US LPG shipments: The shipments to China and other regions have different changes. For example, the shipments to China (weekly MA4) increased from 36 to 60 tons [41] - Canadian LPG shipments: Remained stable compared to the previous period [43] - Middle East LPG shipments: Spot is tight, and shipments are delayed. For example, the Middle East - to - China LPG shipments (weekly MA4) decreased from 97 to 65 tons [48] - LPG imports in China and other countries: China's propane supply increased by 33.79% week - on - week, with domestic production increasing by 2.36% and international arrivals reaching 60.6 tons [75] - LPG commodity volume: The total commodity volume is 52.3 tons (+1.1%), including 21.9 tons of civilian gas (+3.0%) [63] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate increased, while MTBE operating rate decreased slightly [78] - LPG refinery inventory: The inventory is lower than the same period last year, and civilian gas refinery inventory increased slightly [80][88] - LPG terminal import cargo inventory: Arrivals increased week - on - week, with inventory accumulating in South China and slightly decreasing in Shandong [97] Propylene Part Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Propylene is expected to adjust in a narrow range [5] Summary by Section Price & Spread - Propylene industry chain prices: The upstream propane price remains firm, and propylene prices are stable. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased by 40 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase [109][124] - Propylene downstream product prices and profits: PP powder and granules maintain a weak trend, PO prices are firm, and the profit of butanol and octanol has improved significantly [110] - International and domestic propylene prices: International/US - dollar prices are stable, and domestic prices have limited upward and downward drivers and remain stable [112][120] Balance Sheet - Propylene industry chain operating rate: The operating rates of different production methods and downstream industries have changed. For example, the PDH operating rate increased by 2.65% to 72.87% [130] - National and regional propylene supply and demand balance: In December, the propylene supply - demand pressure in the Shandong market remains high, and a weak trend is expected [149] Supply - Overall upstream propylene operating rate: It is 74.2% (+0.2%). Different production methods have different changes. For example, the PDH operating rate increased by 2.7% to 72.9% [159][175] - Propylene imports and exports: The monthly import volume decreased by 7.55 tons (-36.17%) in October, and the monthly export volume decreased by 0.15 tons (-44.14%) [190] Demand - Propylene downstream industries' operating rates and profits: Different downstream industries have different performance. For example, the PP operating rate increased by 0.7% to 78.3%, while the PP powder operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 39.5% [195][209] Downstream Inventory - PP and powder inventory: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed. For example, the PP production enterprises' equity inventory decreased by 2.81 tons [273] - Other downstream inventories: The inventories of phenol, acetone, and acrylonitrile in different locations have also changed [279][280]
能源化工:C3产业链周度报告-20251102
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 12:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LPG, demand improvement is limited and the futures valuation is high. The supply of domestic civil LPG is at a low level while the supply of etherified C4 remains high. The international propane price is strong. In the short term, there is a drive for the valuation to decline due to factors such as compressed PDH device profits [3][4]. - For propylene, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly. The current supply - demand is relatively loose, leading to a weak downward trend in prices. Next week, the supply is expected to contract and demand is expected to be stable, so there is an expectation of a stop - fall and rebound [7]. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic spot prices of civil LPG fluctuate narrowly, and import costs increase significantly. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG decreased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. FEI and CP are strong, and the import cost is supported. The FEI discount converges, the US - Far East arbitrage space expands, and the freight rate center moves up [9][22]. Supply - US propane shipments increase, with the increment mainly going to Asia. Middle East LPG shipments show different trends, and the total LPG commodity volume in China is 53.1 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease. The propane supply in China is 71.21 tons, a 89.34% week - on - week increase, mainly due to an increase in international ship arrivals [36][66][78]. Demand & Inventory - The PDH operating rate increases and the MTBE operating rate remains stable. The inventory of LPG refineries is at a neutral level year - on - year with limited changes this week. The inventory of LPG terminals is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the inventory in East China accumulates significantly [81][90][97]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - The international/US - dollar price of propylene further corrects, and the domestic price declines weakly and hits a new low. The profit of some upstream and downstream industries shows different trends, such as the significant contraction of PDH profit [106][111][119]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of some units in the propylene industry chain change. The national supply and demand of propylene are expected to change slightly in the future. For example, the supply in November 2025 is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is also expected to decrease slightly [127][132][136].
LPG:上行驱动有限,关注成本变动,丙烯:供需偏宽松,短期偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:25
Report Overview - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "LPG: Limited Uptrend Drivers, Monitor Cost Changes; Propylene: Supply-Demand Loose, Short-Term Weak Fluctuation" [2][3] - Analysts: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LPG has limited upward driving forces, and attention should be paid to cost changes [2] - Propylene supply and demand are relatively loose, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - PG2512 yesterday's closing price was 4,258 with a daily increase of 0.52%, and night - session closing price was 4,305 with a night - session increase of 1.10% [3] - PG2601 yesterday's closing price was 4,145 with a daily increase of 0.56%, and night - session closing price was 4,191 with a night - session increase of 1.11% [3] - PL2601 yesterday's closing price was 6,125 with a daily decrease of 0.47%, and night - session closing price was 6,155 with a night - session increase of 0.49% [3] - PL2602 yesterday's closing price was 6,185 with a daily decrease of 0.42%, and night - session closing price was 6,211 with a night - session increase of 0.42% [3] Position and Trading Volume - PG2512 yesterday's trading volume was 59,283, a decrease of 14,169 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 93,555, an increase of 881 from the previous day [3] - PG2601 yesterday's trading volume was 8,224, a decrease of 2,001 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 18,347, an increase of 560 from the previous day [3] - PL2601 yesterday's trading volume was 8,525, a decrease of 1,686 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 10,501, an increase of 161 from the previous day [3] - PL2602 yesterday's trading volume was 5,168, an increase of 1 from the previous day, and yesterday's position was 5,251, an increase of 44 from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - The price spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to PG12 contract was 142 yesterday, compared with 164 the previous day [3] - The price spread of Guangzhou imported gas to PG12 contract was 222 yesterday, compared with 224 the previous day [3] - The price spread of Shandong propylene to PL01 contract was - 100 yesterday, compared with - 129 the previous day [3] - The price spread of East China propylene to PL01 contract was - 50 yesterday, compared with - 54 the previous day [3] - The price spread of South China propylene to PL01 contract was - 100 yesterday, compared with - 129 the previous day [3] Key Industrial Chain Data - This week's PDH operating rate was 71.7%, compared with 68.8% last week [3] - This week's MTBE operating rate was 67.8%, compared with 63.1% last week [3] - This week's alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, compared with 45.1% last week [3] Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0; Propylene trend intensity is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] Market Information - On October 24, 2025, the November CP paper cargo price of propane was 456 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 451 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The December CP paper cargo price of propane was 465 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [8] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Huaxing Petrochemical, Rizhao (China Overseas), etc. [8]
国泰君安期货·能源化工:C3产业链周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:54
Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].
LPG早报-20251010
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the next three months, the supply side is expected to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand will steadily recover, and PDH plants may maintain high operation rates. However, with the expected increase in OPEC+ production, international propane prices are under pressure, and domestic refinery gas also faces significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is likely to fall rather than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On September 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of East China LPG increased by 17 yuan to 4380 yuan, Shandong decreased by 120 yuan to 4430 yuan, and South China decreased by 40 yuan to 4600 yuan. The price of etherified C4 increased by 70 yuan to 4620 yuan. The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis increasing by 18 to 308 [1] Weekly Viewpoints - In the external market, Middle - East supplies are in tight balance, US inventories are at a historical high with high - load exports. The procurement needs of Japanese and Korean chemical industries, Chinese PDH plants, and Indian peak - season stockpiling support prices, but the warm - winter expectation may suppress Japanese and Korean restocking. The shipping freight from the US to the Far East has dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window is closed. Domestically, upstream inventory reduction and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously before the holiday, resulting in small price fluctuations [1] - The profit of PDH plants has improved (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) due to the decline in raw material arrival prices. Etherified C4 is not actively purchased due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profits. The expected increase in OPEC+ production puts pressure on international propane prices, and domestic refinery gas also has significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is expected to have limited upside [1]
丙烯日报:丙烯开工环比回落,下游开工亦下滑-20250912
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 05:09
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply side: Wanhua Penglai restarted, Hebei Haiwei has a restart expectation, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed to the middle and late ten - days, Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued until the end of the month, and the external supply of propylene in Shandong tightened. In the East China region, the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa continued to stop, and the overall propylene start - up decreased month - on - month, supporting the continuous increase of propylene spot prices [2] - Demand side: The current high price of propylene has significantly narrowed the profits of downstream industries, and the overall start - up has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up of PP decreased significantly month - on - month, the profits of butanol and octanol were acceptable, and the start - up increased month - on - month. The start - up of acrylic acid increased the most due to the restart of Wanhua's unit. The start - up of phenol - acetone decreased significantly due to the maintenance of Shenghong and Longjiang Chemical's units. Overall, the increase in propylene spot prices has compressed downstream profits, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries has weakened, which may continue to suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - Cost side: OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, but the geopolitical situation is still volatile, and oil prices are rising in a volatile manner. The price of external propane has been firm recently, and the cost support for propylene is acceptable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes charts of propylene's main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][31] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes charts of the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][47][56][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report includes charts of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]
丙烯日报:丙烯下游利润承压,开工环比下降-20250905
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 06:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure, and demand follow - up is weak. There are no suggestions for inter - period and cross - variety investments [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply side: The overall propylene start - up has little change. Some PDH devices in Hebei and Shandong have restart expectations, while some in Shandong and Qingdao have delays or continued maintenance. The recent tightening of propylene external sales still supports prices, and the supply pressure is expected to ease later. - Demand side: The profits of propylene downstream have significantly narrowed, and the overall start - up has declined month - on - month. Some downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. - Cost side: OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price has fallen. The Saudi CP propane price in September is flat month - on - month, and the external propane trend is strong [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profits and Start - up Rates - Figures cover propylene CFR in China minus naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [14][22][24] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profits - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profits and Start - up Rates - Figures show the production profits and start - up rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report provides figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]
丙烯日报:下游成本承压,丙烯上行受限-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:59
1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].
丙烯日报:丙烯下游高价采购意愿减弱-20250903
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 06:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure and may struggle to keep up [3] - Inter - term: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to PDH device maintenance on the supply side and rigid downstream demand, the spot price of propylene continues to be strong, but the futures market shows a volatile trend. The 01 contract is far away, so the impact of supply - demand drivers is weak. The price of propylene is supported by the tightening of external supply in the short term and the overall downstream demand has slightly recovered, but the overall profit of downstream products is average, and the increase in propylene spot price compresses downstream profits, which restricts the upward space of propylene. The cost of crude oil is rising, and the price of imported propane has rebounded [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant data involve the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refinery [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of downstream products such as PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is provided [66]