贝壳财经记者从几家硅料企业了解到，当前传闻中的方案较为理想化。"按照这个思路，前六家企业必 须统一意见。如果没有政府的强力措施，仅靠松散的企业自治难以成行。"一家硅料企业员工告诉贝壳 财经记者。 贝壳财经记者自多家硅料企业了解到，传闻中的减产计划尚停留在讨论环节。出现在传闻中的一家头部 硅料企业向记者表示，目前尚未收到相关消息。另一企业表示，目前还在观望，准备与其他同行商量后 续工作。 "目前来看关于减产的协商是有的，但能不能达成还是两说。"一名业内人士告诉贝壳财经记者。此外， 一家硅料企业称，"目前市场上的'小作文'确实比较多。" 市场传闻中，这次的硅料企业联合减产将由头部企业牵引，六家头部企业主动减产，并联合"收储"中小 企业产能，通过三个月的过渡期收购尾部产能并停产，最终实现硅料每吨4.5万元至5万元的目标价。 据上海有色网数据，5月14日，多晶硅复投料价格为每吨3.5万元，自今年年初以来仍有小幅下跌。 新京报贝壳财经讯一则头部硅料企业计划联合减产挺价的市场传闻，带动硅料板块经历了5月13日的集 体上涨。 5月14日，这股热情迅速熄火，开盘后四家主要硅料上市公司均遭遇不同程度的股价下挫，截至收盘大 全能 ...

市场分析 2025-05-13，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2506开于8320元/吨，最后收于8230元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-50） 元/吨，变化（-0.60）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓162299手，2025-05-14仓单总数为66494手，较前一日变化 -603手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-10300 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8200-8400（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8200-8400（0）元/吨。据SMM报道，近两日下游 合金等用户有需求订单释放，部分贸易商反馈成交量较上周有转好，持货商报价以持稳为主，下游用户才有压价 情绪仍在。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，国内有机硅DMC企业报价维持稳定， 局部成交价格小幅下降，整体成交区间维持在11300-11600元/吨，但市场成交预期不强，下游企业刚需补库为主， 预计5月20号后，下游企业原料库存将消耗见底，市场成交量有望带动。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-14 基 ...

伊拉克将在5月和6月减少原油出口量至320万桶/日 金十数据5月12日讯，伊拉克一名知情官员表示，伊拉克将在5月和6月降低原油出口量至320万桶/日， 降低出口计划是伊拉克履行其向欧佩克+承诺的补偿减产计划的一部分。这一出口水平将低于伊拉克石 油部3月份报告的约342万桶/日的出口量，伊拉克尚未公布4月份的出口量，但据数据情报公司Kpler 称，该国4月份的平均出口量为330万桶/日。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the cost - inversion situation of alumina enterprises was still severe, production willingness decreased, and some enterprises cut production. There are still maintenance and production - cut plans in the future. The new northern production capacity has not shown an increase in supply, and there are negative news, leading to market观望 about its future production increase [3][8]. - The demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises was mainly about capacity transfer last week, with theoretical demand remaining basically unchanged. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [3][8]. - Overall, some alumina enterprises are still in a theoretical loss state. With maintenance and production - cut plans and the new production capacity causing concerns, the alumina has good bottom support. However, it is also affected by the new production capacity commissioning process and the potential decline in costs, so it has the impetus to rebound but the height is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2729 | 2827 | 98 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2900 | 2907 | 7 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 149 | 77 | -72 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 348 | 349 | 1 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -285.39 | -280.49 | 4.9 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 271413 | 242563 | -28850 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 7200 | 7200 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 77 | 75 | -2 | US dollars/ton | [4] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 2.59% last week, closing at 2,827 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2,907 Yuan/ton, up 7 Yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - For bauxite, the cost pressure of alumina producers was slightly relieved. After the holiday, inland alumina enterprises lowered the purchase price of domestic ore, and there were rumors about the second - quarter price cut of Guinea's long - term bauxite contracts [6]. - On the supply side, some new alumina production capacity was put into operation last week, but some enterprises carried out maintenance and production cuts. As of May 8, China's alumina production capacity was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25% [6]. - On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong continued to transfer to Yunnan, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry remained stable, with no obvious change in the demand for alumina. As of now, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, the same as last week [6]. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The situation is the same as the core views, including cost - inversion, production cuts, new production capacity issues, stable demand, and the situation of inventory change. Alumina has support at the bottom and rebound impetus but limited upside [8]. Industry News - The Shanxi Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision issued a notice to standardize mine safety supervision and law - enforcement behavior, aiming to improve law - enforcement efficiency and prevent mine safety accidents [9]. - Guinea held a publicity seminar to promote the national framework for compensating, indemnifying, and resettling the population affected by development projects [9]. - Lindian Resources acquired the remaining 25% stake in Bauxite Holding to gain full ownership of the Lelouma bauxite project in Guinea and eliminate risks related to ownership dilution and finance [9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [10][12][13]

主要由于抢装潮结束后需求退坡，电池与组件价格纷纷下跌，且电池5月减产不及预期。 硅片的上游是硅料、下游是电池与组件，除了硅片本身供需以外，硅料、电池、组件的供需变化也对硅 片价格形成重要影响。节后下游终端需求明显回落是硅片价格大跌的主要原因。而从硅料和电池对硅片 的影响来看，电池减产不及预期是主要压力。 根据Infolink披露的数据，5月份电池片排产预计61.7GW，环比下降9%，当月国内仅有少数电池厂家明 确下调排产，多数厂家仍维持较高稼动率（OEE，是衡量生产设备综合效率的核心指标），电池片减产 幅度不及预期。 目前光伏产业主要依靠减产防止价格进一步探底，电池厂商的减产幅度如果不及预期，电池价格继续下 跌，会带动硅片价格下跌。硅业分会在周评中指出，若后续电池、组件价格继续下行，硅片市场价格大 概率延续下行走势。但由于硅片价格已跌破部分企业的心理价位，后续下跌空间不会太大。 "五一"假期后首周，光伏硅片价格创年内最大周跌幅。尽管一季度光伏行业自律减产带动头部企业净利 润环比回暖，但硅片价格再度大跌将影响减产保价效果。 当周，N型硅片价格全面下跌，最大跌幅达13.5%。硅片跌价主要由于抢装潮结束后需求退坡， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to have an oscillatory trend [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased due to the US's attempt to curb oil flow, leading to reduced supply from Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya. The US's expanded sanctions have increased market concerns and caused oil prices to rebound. The oil market will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Singapore and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventories decreased. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle Eastern summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still pressure the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased. With the improvement of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate, and terminal demand is supported, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by increased supply [3]. - **Polyester**: PTA, EG, and PX futures prices rose on Thursday. PTA's load decreased and then is expected to rise. The overall ethylene glycol start - up load increased. Some MEG devices restarted or plan to shut down. The production and sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta are weak. The prices of PX and PTA will follow cost fluctuations, and ethylene glycol is relatively resistant to decline [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The start - up loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. The rubber market fundamentals are weak, but the delayed rubber tapping in Thailand will support prices in the short term [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices showed certain trends. In May, domestic supply is expected to increase, while demand will remain relatively stable, and price support will weaken [6]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the average national price of polypropylene (PP) was reported, and the prices of polyethylene (PE) in different regions decreased. Supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but demand will enter the off - season, and the decline in inventory will slow down. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The real estate construction off - season will drag down the demand for PVC downstream products, and exports may decline. In May, the PVC market fundamentals are loose, and prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 8th and 9th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased, despite the relaxation of voluntary production cuts. The organization plans to accelerate production increases in May and June, but the impact of the US's restrictions on Iran and Venezuela remains uncertain. Kazakhstan has no plan to cut crude oil and condensate production in May [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are provided, showing the basis trends over the years [28][32][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products, such as the spreads between 05 - 09 and 09 - 01 contracts of fuel oil [44][45][46]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spread charts between different varieties are presented, including the spreads between domestic and foreign crude oil, B - W spreads of crude oil, and the spreads between fuel oil and asphalt [60][64][65]. - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [68][69][72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [74][75][76].

根据OPEC+协议，哈萨克斯坦本月原油产量应略低于140万桶/日。然而，彭博社根据能源部数据计算 显示，包括不计入OPEC+限制的凝析油在内，该国5月计划产量将达到约200万桶/日。哈萨克斯坦通常 每天生产约26万桶凝析油，这是一种轻质油。 哈萨克斯坦明确表示不会在5月减产，公开挑战沙特阿拉伯在OPEC+的权威。 根据彭博社报道，哈萨克斯坦能源部通过电子邮件确认，该国没有计划在5月削减石油产量。作为中亚 最大的石油生产国，哈萨克斯坦将在5月保持日均27.7万公吨（约200万桶/日）的原油和凝析油产量， 与4月持平，高于3月的26万公吨。 这一公开声明无疑是对沙特阿拉伯领导的OPEC+的直接挑战，后者已经对配额违规国家发出了严厉警 告。哈萨克斯坦不断违反限产规则，导致OPEC+内部关系紧张。 OPEC+内乱不断 连续两个月，OPEC+出人意料地同意大幅增产，此举震惊交易员并导致国际油价一度跌破60美元/桶。 这一举措很大程度上源于沙特阿拉伯对像哈萨克斯坦这样长期超产的成员国的惩罚意愿。在5月3日最近 一次会议上，沙特警告称，如果成员国不遵守规则，将会进一步增产。 这种巨大差距清楚地表明了哈萨克斯坦超出配额的程度 ...

澳新银行：我们现在更倾向于认为，到2025年底，欧佩克+将完全取消220万桶/天的自愿减产措施。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile. Although short - term geopolitical disturbances and potential declines in US crude oil production have led to a short - term upward repair in market sentiment, the over - production of Kazakhstan and Iraq, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may put pressure on prices [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand. However, the low raw material procurement demand and the arrival of Middle - East supplies will also have an impact [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects with the warming weather will support demand, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the increase in supply [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in the prices of PX, PTA, and EG, the weak sales of polyester yarns, and the maintenance of some devices all indicate a weak market [2][4]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although Thailand's proposal to reduce import tariffs and the postponement of the rubber tapping season may support the market, the high raw material prices may lead to high tapping enthusiasm, and the weak terminal demand will still put pressure on prices [4][5]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand will remain relatively stable in May, leading to a loosening of spot price support [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although the supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, the demand will enter the off - season, and the inventory decline will slow down [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the approaching implementation of the Indian BIS certification may lead to a decline in exports [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI June contract closed at $59.09/barrel, up $1.96 or 3.43%; Brent July contract closed at $62.15/barrel, up $1.92 or 3.19%; SC2506 closed at 465.9 yuan/barrel, up 8.1 yuan or 1.77%. Kazakhstan and Iraq have over - produced. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output in 2025 will be 13.42 million barrels, about 100,000 barrels less than last month's forecast [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2507 closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; LU2506 closed at 3,405 yuan/ton, up 1.73%. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2506 closed at 3,424 yuan/ton, up 2.42%. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects will support demand [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,362 yuan/ton, down 1.62%; EG2509 closed at 4,130 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The sales of polyester yarns in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are weak, and some devices are under maintenance [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2509 closed at 14,815 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; NR closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Thailand proposes to reduce import tariffs, and the rubber tapping season is postponed, but the terminal demand is weak [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,420 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will remain relatively stable in May [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but the demand will enter the off - season [6]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the price in the East - China PVC market decreased. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the inventory pressure will increase [6][7]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with April 30, 2025 [8]. Market News - The US API data shows that in the week of May 2, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the analysts expected a decrease of 2.5 million barrels [13]. - On May 6, the EU announced a plan to terminate the import of Russian energy by 2027 [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [40][42][46] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [61][62][65] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [68][70][71] Team Member Introduction - The research team includes Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the field of energy and chemical research [73][74][75]