Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total volumes and revenue decreased by 6.1% and 7.5% respectively, with revenue per hectoliter declining by 1.5% due to negative geographic and channel mix [7][8] - Normalized EBITDA decreased by 11.2%, and the normalized EBITDA margin contracted by 140 basis points [7] - In APAC West, volumes and revenue decreased by 8.6% and 11.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA decreasing by 17.6% [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, volumes declined by 9.2%, with revenue declining by 12.7% and revenue per hectoliter down by 3.9% [8] - The in-home channel saw increased volume and revenue contributions, indicating a shift towards premiumization in this segment [9] - In APAC East, volumes and revenues increased by 11.9% and 11.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA increasing by 24.4% [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In South Korea, volume increased by double digits, supported by shipment phasing ahead of a price increase announced in April [12] - The company reported strong performance in the in-home channel, with a focus on expanding distribution and market share [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to adapt to evolving market conditions and execute with discipline to capture growth, focusing on market share, in-home channels, and mega brands like Budweiser and Harbin [5][20] - The strategy emphasizes premiumization and a digitalized ecosystem, with a commitment to optimizing business operations [20][76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer confidence in China remains low, impacting sales, particularly in Guangdong, but sees potential for improvement during holiday periods [17][56] - The company is focused on executing its strategy effectively, with an emphasis on enhancing distribution and expanding the in-home channel [49] Other Important Information - The company has increased marketing investments for Budweiser and Harbin to connect with consumers and drive market share [10] - The usage and reach of the BEES platform for B2B wholesaler and customer engagement continued to expand, indicating a focus on technology and commercial capabilities [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Q2 performance in China - Management indicated that consumer confidence remains low, particularly in key regions, but sees potential for improvement during holiday periods [17] Question: Competition in Guangdong province - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape in Guangdong and emphasized the importance of expanding in-home coverage and distribution to maintain market share [30] Question: Core plus plus strategy and trade-up volume - Management explained that the core plus plus segment serves as an accessible upgrade for consumers, with a focus on superior product offerings to drive growth [39] Question: Impact of tariffs in Guangdong - Management stated it is too early to quantify the impact of tariffs on consumer behavior but emphasized focusing on execution and adapting strategies as needed [46] Question: On-trade recovery in China - Management remains conservative about on-trade recovery, noting that consumer confidence is a key factor and that in-home consumption continues to grow [56] Question: Cooperation with Swire - Management highlighted successful trials in Hubei and Anhui provinces and expressed optimism about future collaboration opportunities [86] Question: Future of Harbin Beer - Management emphasized Harbin's unique position as a national brand with a strong heritage and commitment to premiumization, aiming to leverage its brand power for growth [92]

Core Insights - The beer market is experiencing intensified competition as it enters a phase of stock competition, with contrasting performance driven by events like the European Cup and the Paris Olympics, alongside adverse weather and weak recovery in dining demand [1][3] - The overall beer industry remains highly fragmented, with major players like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, and Yanjing Beer generating over 150 billion yuan in total revenue, while smaller companies struggle with revenues below 1.3 billion yuan [1][3] Industry Performance - In 2024, the beer industry in China saw a 0.6% decline in production among large-scale enterprises, with industry revenue decreasing by 5.7%, marking it as the only category in the food and beverage sector to experience a revenue drop [3][8] - Major companies such as Budweiser APAC, Tsingtao Brewery, and China Resources Beer reported revenue declines of 8.8%, 5.3%, and 2.45% respectively, while Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer managed to achieve revenue growth [3][10] Financial Results - Among the six major beer companies, Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Chongqing Beer all faced declines in both revenue and net profit, while Tsingtao Brewery saw a slight increase in net profit despite a revenue drop [5][6] - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit, with Yanjing's net profit increasing by 63% [5][6] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, major beer companies showed resilience with revenue and net profit growth, particularly Yanjing Beer, which achieved a net profit increase of over 60% [13][14] - Qingdao Beer led in revenue with approximately 10.446 billion yuan, while Zhujiang Beer had the highest revenue growth rate at 10.69% [14][16] Market Trends - The beer market is shifting towards high-end products, with companies focusing on premium offerings to attract consumers [15][17] - Yanjing Beer has launched new beverage products, indicating a strategic move towards diversification and tapping into the beverage market [17][18] - Qingdao Beer is also exploring beverage integration through its strategic merger with Qingdao Beverage Group, enhancing its product offerings and market reach [19]

Industry Overview - The beer industry in 2024 is experiencing a significant divergence, with some companies thriving while others struggle, reflecting a structural adjustment within the market [2][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.6% year-on-year decline in beer production and a 5.7% decrease in industry revenue, making beer the only category in the food and beverage sector to see a revenue drop [2] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top six companies (CR6) holding a market share of 92.6% [3] - Beer production has been declining since its peak in 2013, leading to a contraction in the overall consumption market, which directly impacts the performance of leading companies [3] Financial Performance - Major companies like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Tsingtao Brewery reported revenue declines of 8.89%, 0.76%, and 5.3% respectively in 2024 [4][5] - Net profits for Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Chongqing Beer also fell by 14.8%, 8.03%, and 17.05% respectively, attributed to weak consumer demand and challenges in traditional sales channels [4][5] Growth Segmentation - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are exceptions, showing positive growth in both revenue and profit, with Yanjing's revenue increasing by 3.20% and net profit by 54.87% [5] - Yanjing U8 has successfully penetrated the mid-to-high-end market, achieving a 31.40% increase in sales volume [6] Strategic Shifts - Companies are shifting focus towards operational efficiency and market segmentation to find sustainable profit growth in a saturated market [8][9] - Budweiser APAC is reallocating resources from super-premium products to the core price segment of 8-10 yuan, which is performing better in the current consumption environment [7][8] Cost Management - Several companies, including Budweiser APAC and China Resources Beer, have reduced their sales costs by 8.93% and 2.93% respectively, due to lower barley prices and improved cost control measures [9][10] - Qingdao Beer managed to achieve a slight net profit increase despite revenue decline by reducing various operational costs [10][12] Marketing Innovations - Companies are adopting innovative marketing strategies to engage younger consumers, such as emotional and scenario-based marketing [13][14] - Budweiser APAC is focusing on expanding non-drinking channels and targeting new consumption scenarios, while China Resources Beer has seen over 30% growth in online business [15][16]

Summary of Qingdao Beer Conference Call Company Overview - Qingdao Beer is a historic brewery established in 1903, recognized as one of China's earliest modern brewing enterprises, contributing to its strong brand reputation and market recognition [8][9]. Key Points and Arguments Leadership and Strategy - The company has welcomed a new chairman, indicating a robust operational drive with a clear focus on increasing sales as the primary goal, supported by flexible management to enhance regional market share [1][10]. - The new leadership is expected to catalyze growth, especially after a period of inventory clearance in 2024, positioning the company for a strong performance in 2025 [2][12]. Market Trends and Performance - The beer industry is currently in the second half of its premiumization phase, with the mid-high price segment (8-10 RMB) showing strong vitality, benefiting Qingdao Beer through its flagship product "Qingdao Classic" [1][3]. - Despite a flat consumption demand in 2024, the company has maintained a stable price per ton, benefiting from upgrades in mainstream price segments [1][4]. Competitive Position - Qingdao Beer leads the market share in the mid-high segment, primarily due to the strong performance of its 2 million-ton flagship product "Qingdao Classic," which has successfully entered the 8-10 RMB price range [1][6]. - The company is expected to continue enjoying the benefits of market expansion in the mid-high segment, despite slight market share declines due to inventory adjustments [6][7]. Financial Outlook - For 2025, Qingdao Beer anticipates a continuation of cost advantages, with locked barley prices leading to a projected decrease in costs and an expected increase in gross margin [1][13]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of mid-single to double digits in the first quarter of 2025, supported by low inventory levels and a healthy demand environment [1][12]. Valuation and Investment Potential - Qingdao Beer is currently valued at approximately 22 times earnings in A-shares and 15 times in H-shares, with the latter offering better value [1][14]. - The company is rated as a strong buy, with an expected growth potential of 15%-20% in the next two to three months [1][14]. Additional Important Insights - The rise of instant retail has fragmented distribution channels, impacting overall consumption patterns, yet the demand for quality-price ratio remains unchanged [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the high-end market shows that while Budweiser holds a significant share, Qingdao Beer is well-positioned to capitalize on the mid-high segment due to its strong brand influence and distribution capabilities [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beer industry is facing multiple challenges in 2024, including consumption segmentation, cost pressures, and localized competition from international brands, leading to a trend of "volume decline and price increase" [2] Industry Overview - The overall revenue of the beer industry in 2024 has decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, making it the only category in the food and beverage sector to experience negative growth [2] - The performance of the six major listed beer companies—Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer—has shown further differentiation [2][3] Company Performance - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of 62.46 billion RMB, down 8.90%, and a net profit of 7.26 billion RMB, down 14.79% [9] - China Resources Beer achieved revenue of 38.635 billion RMB, a slight decline of 0.76%, with net profit down 8.03% to 4.739 billion RMB [9] - Tsingtao Brewery's revenue was 32.138 billion RMB, down 5.30%, but net profit increased by 1.81% to 4.345 billion RMB [9] - Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 14.645 billion RMB, down 1.15%, and net profit of 1.115 billion RMB, down 16.61% [9] - Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer were the exceptions, with Zhujiang Beer achieving revenue growth of 6.56% to 5.731 billion RMB and net profit growth of 29.95% to 810 million RMB [11] - Yanjing Beer also saw revenue growth of 3.20% to 14.667 billion RMB and net profit growth of 63.74% to 1.055 billion RMB [11] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a shift towards high-end products, with Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer benefiting from product structure adjustments and capturing high-end consumption scenarios [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the beer industry must continue to pursue high-end strategies and expand online channels to find new growth opportunities [3][15] - The competition in the high-end market is intensifying, prompting companies to innovate and refine operations to discover new growth points [15] Strategic Adjustments - Companies are adjusting their product structures towards high-end offerings, with Zhujiang Beer reporting that 90% of its revenue comes from mid-to-high-end products [14] - Yanjing Beer has successfully launched its flagship product, Yanjing U8, achieving a sales volume of 696,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 31.40% [14] - Budweiser APAC, despite being a high-end market leader, has seen a significant decline in sales, down 11.8%, attributed to weak consumer spending [14] - China Resources Beer reported that mid-range and above products accounted for over 50% of its sales for the first time, indicating a commitment to high-end strategies [14]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser Asia Pacific is facing unprecedented challenges in the Chinese market, marked by significant revenue and profit declines, layoffs, and a leadership change aimed at revitalizing the business [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Budweiser Asia Pacific reported revenues of $6.246 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and net profits fell by 14.8%, with total sales down by 8.8% [2][7]. - The fourth quarter saw even steeper declines, with total sales and revenue decreasing by 12.7% and 11.0%, respectively, due to inventory destocking [7]. Workforce Reduction - The company has reduced its workforce from over 28,000 employees at the end of 2019 to approximately 21,000 by the end of 2024, representing a 25% reduction [3][14]. - Reports suggest that Budweiser Asia Pacific plans to cut operational costs by 15% by further layoffs in 2025, although the company has denied these claims [2][14]. Leadership Change - In February 2024, Budweiser Asia Pacific appointed Cheng Yanjun, the first Chinese CEO, to replace Yang Ke, who had been with the company for 23 years [4][19]. - The leadership change is perceived as a strategic move to rejuvenate the company's performance in the Chinese market [4][19]. Market Position and Strategy - Budweiser's market share in the high-end beer segment has declined to around 40%, as competition from local brands like Yanjing and craft beers increases [11][12]. - The company has attempted to stabilize prices by raising the cost of certain products by 3 to 7 yuan per case, reflecting its struggle to maintain profitability [9][10]. Challenges Ahead - Analysts predict that the demand for beer in China will not see significant improvement by 2025, and Budweiser's high-end product mix may continue to hinder sales [19]. - The company is urged to focus on product innovation, channel restructuring, and organizational changes to create higher value with fewer resources [19].

Core Viewpoint - The beer giants in China, including Tsingtao Brewery, Budweiser APAC, and China Resources Beer, are facing challenges in achieving sustained growth, with Tsingtao Brewery reporting a decline in revenue and a slight increase in profit for 2024 [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - Tsingtao Brewery's revenue for 2024 was 32.138 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, equating to a reduction of approximately 1.8 billion yuan [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.345 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.81%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.951 billion yuan, up 6.19% [1]. - The overall sales volume for Tsingtao Brewery in 2024 was 7.538 million kiloliters, down approximately 5.9% from 8.007 million kiloliters in 2023 [2]. Market Performance Summary - The main brand of Tsingtao Brewery achieved a revenue of 22.083 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of about 5.1%, while other brands generated 9.495 billion yuan, down 6.4% [2]. - The revenue from the Shandong market, Tsingtao Brewery's primary market, was 22.095 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue, with a decline of over 6% [3]. - All major markets, including Shandong, North China, South China, and East China, experienced revenue declines in 2024, with East China seeing a nearly 10% drop [3]. Industry Trends and Competition - The beer industry has been in a state of stagnant competition since 2014, with a 0.6% year-on-year decline in beer production among large-scale enterprises in 2024 [4]. - The trend towards premiumization remains a core theme in the industry, with Tsingtao Brewery reporting that the proportion of mid-to-high-end products in total sales increased from 40.5% to 41.8% [5]. - Tsingtao Brewery has launched several new high-end products, including "One Century Legend" and "Amber Lager," as part of its strategy to enhance product structure [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the high-end market has intensified, with Budweiser APAC reporting a revenue decline of approximately 9% and a net profit decrease of 14.8% in 2024 [8]. - China Resources Beer also faced a revenue decline of 3.57% in 2024, although it reported a growth of over 9% in high-end beer sales following its acquisition of Heineken China [9]. - Tsingtao Brewery aims to optimize its product structure and expand its market presence in mid-to-high-end products to create new growth opportunities [9].

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales and revenue, with major players facing challenges in maintaining growth, while some smaller brands are gaining market share and profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, with a net profit of 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and sales volume of 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.86% [1]. - Among the five major beer companies, four experienced a decline in sales last year, with Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, and Chongqing Beer down 0.75% [1]. - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer were exceptions, with Yanjing Beer growing by 1.6% and Zhujiang Beer by 2.62% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share gap among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all facing revenue and sales declines, while Yanjing and Zhujiang continue to grow beyond industry levels [3]. - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 seeing sales close to 700,000 kiloliters, growing over 30% for two consecutive years [3]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in high-end beer product sales year-on-year, with net profit rising by nearly 37% [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize growth in their premium products, with China Resources reporting that mid-range and above beer sales accounted for over 50% of its total sales [3]. - The average price per ton for China Resources Beer exceeded 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, and Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang's prices were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [5]. - The leading companies still maintain significant revenue advantages, with China Resources and Qingdao Beer generating revenues of over 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, while Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer reported revenues of 14.6 billion yuan, less than 13 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the beer industry, but it discusses the high-end market growth and potential investment opportunities in this segment. Core Insights - The high-end beer market in China has entered a mid-stage of development, with significant growth in large single products and an expanding premium price segment [3][9]. - The report predicts a slowdown in the high-end trend from 2023 to 2024, with an optimistic CAGR of 7.33% for beer prices in China from 2022 to 2027 [4][6]. - The overall beer market has stabilized, with low-price competition failing to generate growth, making high-end upgrades the long-term driver for price increases in the industry [5][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Price and Volume Review - The beer industry in China has undergone three phases: growth (2000-2012), contraction (2013-2017), and a decline in production (2018-2023) [11][24]. - During the growth phase, revenue increased from 446 billion to 1612 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 11.3% driven by volume growth [11]. - The contraction phase saw a slight decline in revenue, with a CAGR of -0.7%, as low-end price wars failed to yield significant market share [11][24]. - The current phase (2018-2023) is characterized by a focus on high-end products, with revenue growth returning to 1863 billion CNY, reflecting a CAGR of 4.8% [11][24]. High-End Market Review - The high-end market has expanded significantly, with major domestic manufacturers developing large single products that have reached scales exceeding 400,000 tons [3][9]. - The competition in the high-end segment remains dynamic, with the potential for major shifts in market share as brands establish their flagship products [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that the high-end market's growth is supported by an increase in middle-income consumers and urbanization, which enhances purchasing power [35][36]. Price Forecasting - The report forecasts that the average price of beer in China will grow at a CAGR of approximately 7.33% from 2022 to 2027, aligning with historical trends observed in the U.S. beer market [4][6][73]. - The price increase is attributed to structural upgrades in product offerings and the ability of manufacturers to implement price increases effectively [70][71]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has shifted from volume-based competition to brand strength and product differentiation, particularly in the high-end segment [80]. - The report notes that the high-end beer market is increasingly dominated by younger consumers who prioritize quality over price, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [38][43]. Long-Term Drivers - The core consumer demographic (ages 20-50) is identified as a long-term driver of beer consumption, with changes in consumer preferences and income levels influencing demand [19][22]. - The report highlights that the growth of the middle class and urbanization are critical factors supporting the transition to premium beer consumption [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) with a target price raised to HKD 41.8, indicating a potential upside of 38% from the current stock price of HKD 30.05 [1][5][4]. Core Insights - The overall consumption environment is under pressure, leading to a 2.5% decline in total sales volume, while high-end product sales grew by 9%. The average selling price increased by 1.5%, and gross profit per thousand liters rose by 4.9% [2][4]. - The company is implementing a "Three Precision" strategy focusing on streamlined management, lean cost control, and meticulous operations to drive growth in a stagnant market [2][4]. - The white liquor segment showed steady growth, with revenue reaching RMB 2.15 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and an EBITDA of RMB 850 million, reflecting a profit margin of 39.6% [3][4]. Financial Summary - In 2024, total revenue is projected at RMB 39.65 billion, with a slight growth of 2.62% expected in 2025 and 1.12% in 2026. Net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 5.22 billion, RMB 5.44 billion, and RMB 5.68 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.73, HKD 1.80, and HKD 1.88 [9][11][4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 42.34% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.16% [11][17]. - The company plans to continue increasing its dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend of RMB 0.76 per share for the year, representing a payout ratio of 52% [3][4]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 41.8 based on a 25x PE ratio and a DCF valuation suggesting a fair market value of HKD 42.6 [12][4]. - The average PE ratio of comparable companies is noted at 21.4x, while the report assigns a higher multiple to China Resources Beer due to its market position and growth prospects [12][14].