Core Insights - Beijing's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to October [1] - Significant growth in equipment purchase investment, reflecting enterprises' expansion of production capacity, surged by 73.7%, accounting for 30.2% of total fixed asset investment, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - High-tech industry investment rose by 48.4%, driven by projects in internet enterprise computing hardware and Zhongguancun Science Park [1] Investment Breakdown - Infrastructure investment grew by 0.6% [1] - Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% [1] - Real estate development investment declined by 14.7% [1] Sector Performance - Primary industry investment rose by 22.3% [1] - Secondary industry investment increased by 7.9% [1] - Tertiary industry investment grew by 7.8%, with wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering investments increasing by 2.1 times and 1.5 times respectively due to upgrades in certain business districts and wholesale markets [1] - Information transmission, software, and IT services investment grew by 1.0 times [1] - Cultural, sports, and entertainment investment surged by 63.7% [1]

Core Insights - Beijing's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to October, indicating a positive trend in economic activity [1] Investment Overview - Large-scale equipment renewal policies have significantly impacted investment, with equipment purchase investment rising by 73.7%, accounting for 30.2% of total fixed asset investment, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - High-tech industry investment surged by 48.4%, driven by projects in internet enterprise computing hardware and the Zhongguancun Science Park [1] Sector Performance - Infrastructure investment grew by 0.6%, while manufacturing investment saw a modest increase of 2.7% [1] - Real estate development investment experienced a decline of 14.7% [1] Industry Breakdown - Investment in the primary industry rose by 22.3%, the secondary industry by 7.9%, and the tertiary industry by 7.8% [1] - Notably, investment in wholesale and retail, as well as accommodation and catering, increased by 2.1 times and 1.5 times respectively, driven by upgrades in certain business districts and wholesale markets [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a growth of 1.0 times, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment industry grew by 63.7% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October shows a decline in both supply and demand sides, indicating a challenging economic environment [1] Demand Side Summary - Investment growth continues to decline rapidly, with new policy financial tools yet to show significant effects [1] - Despite a slight drop in retail sales growth in October, it still exceeded market expectations, aided by a recovery in dining consumption due to holiday effects [1] Supply Side Summary - Industrial production performance is hindered by declining demand and holiday effects, while the service production index has also decreased due to high base effects [1] Future Outlook - The basic fundamentals of foreign trade exports are expected to remain supported through the end of the year [1] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to improve moderately with the implementation of new policy financial tools [1] - There is a possibility of continued low levels of consumer spending [1] - Recent government initiatives to promote private investment and develop relevant scenarios are expected to positively impact investment and consumption once implemented [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October indicates a decline in both supply and demand sides, with investment growth continuing to decrease rapidly, while consumer spending shows slight improvement due to holiday effects, but overall retail sales growth has slightly declined yet remains above market expectations [1] Demand Side Summary - Investment growth in October continues its rapid downward trend, with the effectiveness of new policy financial tools still pending [1] - Retail sales growth in October has slightly declined but remains above market expectations, attributed to a rebound in dining consumption due to holiday effects [1] Supply Side Summary - Industrial production performance is affected by the decline in demand and holiday effects, leading to a decrease in the service sector production index due to high base effects [1] Future Outlook - The basic fundamentals of foreign trade exports are expected to remain supported for the remainder of the year [1] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to improve moderately with the implementation of new policy financial tools [1] - There is a possibility that consumer spending may continue to remain subdued [1] - Recent government initiatives to promote private investment and develop relevant scenarios are expected to positively impact investment and consumption once implemented [1]

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the real estate market, with October sales area dropping by 18.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2009 [19][20] - The total investment in real estate development for October was 585.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%, which is the largest monthly decline since December 2022 [19][23] - New construction area also saw a substantial decline of 29.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [19][23] Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that the financing demand in the real economy remains weak, with October's social financing scale at 816.1 billion, down 595.9 billion from the previous year [6][9] - Industrial value-added growth for October was reported at 4.9%, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% [13][14] - Consumer retail sales in October reached 46.291 trillion, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, driven by the holiday season [7][15] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The report notes that the average selling price of residential properties in October decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, despite a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [20][27] - The inventory pressure in the housing market remains significant, with the broad inventory area at 1.55 billion square meters, indicating a 25.5-month depleting cycle [22] - The report anticipates that the real estate market will continue to face downward pressure, with projected declines in sales area and investment for 2025 [20][23] Price Trends - In October, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, marking a trend of declining prices across the board [27][28] - The report highlights that all 70 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices for two consecutive months, a first since data collection began in 2011 [27][28] Investment and Financing - The report indicates that the funding for real estate developers decreased by 21.9% year-on-year in October, with both sales returns and external financing weakening [25] - The total amount of funds available to developers for the first ten months of the year was 7.89 trillion, down 9.7% compared to the previous year [25]

Economic Performance - In October, the new social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 595.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[1] - Government bond financing fell due to the overall fiscal financing rhythm, with the first three quarters' issuance at 9,408 billion yuan, up 45,281 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 79.3% of the annual target[1] - New RMB loans in October were 220 billion yuan, down 280 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a recovery in corporate loan demand but a weak performance in residential loans[4] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, with non-automobile retail sales increasing by 4.0%[5] - Restaurant revenue grew by 3.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.9 percentage points compared to September, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth[5] - Automobile and online goods retail sales fell by 4.4% and 1.2% respectively, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points[5] Investment Insights - From January to October, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with real estate investment down 14.7%, further expanding the decline by 0.8 percentage points[10] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments showed positive growth at 2.7% and 1.5% respectively, but both slowed down compared to the previous three quarters[10] - Key sectors contributing positively to fixed asset investment included textiles (1.7%), food processing (1.4%), and beverage manufacturing (1.1%) for the same period[13]

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]

Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, fixed asset investment in Henan Province (excluding rural households) increased by 4.5% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 6.2 percentage points [1][3] Investment Breakdown - Private investment grew by 7.3%, while state-owned investment saw a modest increase of 0.6% [4] - By industry, the primary sector experienced a decline of 4.9%, the secondary sector saw a significant increase of 17.8%, and the tertiary sector declined by 2.7% [3][4] Industrial Investment - Industrial investment overall increased by 17.8%, with mining investment rising by 20.3% and manufacturing investment growing by 16.9% [3][4] - Notably, investment in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry surged by 22.2% [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 7.2%, while real estate development investment fell by 8.3% [3][4] - Within infrastructure, investment in water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management grew slightly by 0.3%, contrasting with a significant decline of 18.7% in transportation and postal services [3][4] Investment by Project Type - Central project investment increased by 2.7%, while local project investment rose by 4.5% [3][4]

Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, fixed asset investment in Henan Province (excluding rural households) increased by 4.5%, surpassing the national average by 6.2 percentage points [1] - Private investment in Henan grew by 7.3% during the same period [1] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry decreased by 4.9%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 17.8%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 2.7% [3] - Industrial investment rose by 17.8%, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 7.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 8.3% [3] - Within industrial investment, mining investment grew by 20.3%, manufacturing investment increased by 16.9%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply rose by 22.2% [3] - In infrastructure investment, water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management (excluding land management) saw a slight increase of 0.3%, while transportation and postal services investment dropped by 18.7%, and information transmission investment fell by 0.5% [3] Investment by Ownership - Central project investment increased by 2.7%, while local project investment grew by 4.5% [3]