Core Insights - Shanghai's fixed asset investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year from January to May this year [1] Investment Breakdown - Urban infrastructure investment grew by 19.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - Industrial investment rose by 18.7% year-on-year [1] - Real estate development investment saw a growth of 4.0% [1] Sector Investment Performance - First industry investment surged by 38.0% year-on-year [1] - Second industry investment increased by 18.5% compared to the previous year [1] - Third industry investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year [1] Funding Status - Actual funds in place for investment increased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year [1]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, indicating positive service sector performance[13] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, driven by the early "618" shopping festival[19] - Major categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% year-on-year[23] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, below the market expectation of 4.0%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7%[4] Employment and Labor Market - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation[6] - The job market remains sensitive to external economic conditions, with policies aimed at supporting key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers[6] Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slight economic slowdown compared to the first quarter, with potential non-linear characteristics due to external uncertainties[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by easing U.S.-China trade relations and risk mitigation funds[1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

Economic Indicators - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the growth for January to May was 6.3% [1] - Fixed asset investment nationwide grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, with a growth of 5.0% for January to May [1] Real Estate Market - In May, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline continuing to narrow [2] Stock Market Updates - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced an adjustment to the list of Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible securities, with CATL being added effective June 16, 2025 [3] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.37%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.15% [4]

Core Insights - The fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in China for the first five months of 2025 reached 191,947 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [5] - The investment growth varied across different industries, with the primary industry growing by 8.4%, the secondary industry by 11.4%, and the tertiary industry declining by 0.4% [2][5] Investment by Industry - In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 11.6%, with mining investment up by 5.8%, manufacturing investment up by 8.5%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply rising by 25.4% [3][5] - The tertiary industry saw infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grow by 5.6%, with significant increases in water transport (27.2%), water management (26.6%), and air transport (4.7%) [3] Regional Investment Trends - Investment growth varied by region, with the eastern region growing by 0.5%, the central region by 4.5%, the western region by 4.9%, and the northeastern region by 2.1% [3] Investment by Ownership Type - Domestic enterprises saw a fixed asset investment growth of 3.7%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises grew by 6.5%. In contrast, foreign enterprises experienced a decline of 13.4% [4][6]

Economic Overview - The economic operation in Huicheng District is stable and shows a positive trend, with strong industrial production and a recovering consumer market, although fixed asset investment has seen an expanded decline [1] Industrial Production - From January to April, the total industrial output value reached nearly 27.3 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0%. In April alone, the output was 7.285 billion, growing by 2.8% year-on-year [2] - The added value of the industrial sector also grew by 10.0% year-on-year. Key industries such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing saw a significant increase of 24.1% in added value [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by over 14% year-on-year from January to April, with the decline expanding by 3.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Construction and installation investment fell by 20.3% [3] - Industrial investment continued to decline, down 9.3% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment grew by 5.0% [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 28.504 billion, with an increase of 4.0 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Retail sales of limited enterprises amounted to 16.66 billion, growing by 14.2% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales surged by 70.0%, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [4] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached approximately 13.9 billion, growing by 58.5%, with imports increasing by 165.3% and exports growing by 5.9% [5] Fiscal Revenue - The general public budget revenue for the district reached 1.573 billion, with tax revenue slightly declining by 0.4%. Public budget expenditure grew by 6.5% [6] - Tax revenue for the first four months was 9.47 billion, reflecting a growth of nearly 7% [7]

第一财经研究院发布的最新一期"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.50，回归50荣枯线以上。经济 学家们认为，中美贸易谈判出现积极信号，短期内国内经济景气度回暖。接下来应进一步提振信心、扩 大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转型升级的动力。以政策工具箱的灵活性来对冲不 确定性，以产业链供应链的韧性来抵御外部的冲击。 工业生产景气度保持平稳 经济学家们认为，接下来应进一步提振信心、扩大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转 型升级的动力。 尽管面临外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，但随着稳经济、稳就业政策措施加快落地 见效，中国主要经济指标有望保持平稳运行。 国家统计局将于6月16日发布5月份宏观经济数据。机构分析，工业、消费、投资等多项经济指标亮点频 现，国民经济应变克难稳定运行，发展质量持续提升。 中信证券分析，2024年同期基数走高，或对5月社会消费品零售总额同比增速构成一定拖累。分商品 看，在"国补"和"618"大促的带动下，家电、通讯器材类商品消费或延续较好表现。预计5月社零同比或 增长4.4%左右。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，5月份，节日需求释放带动相关服务业表 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yanggu County is focusing on expanding effective investment and accelerating project construction to support high-quality economic and social development [1] - Yanggu County has 34 key provincial and municipal projects, with 30 already started and 21 completed in terms of statistical inclusion [1] - From January to April, fixed asset investment in Yanggu County increased by 11.2% year-on-year, ranking second in the city [1] Group 2 - The county is enhancing the management of key projects by increasing tracking, coordination, and supervision efforts, ensuring orderly project advancement [2] - Yanggu County has secured 28 policy-based projects for 2025, including 25 local government special bond projects and 2 central budget projects [2] - The county is actively planning and reserving policy-based funding projects in areas such as urban renewal and social affairs to attract more upper-level funding [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Markit data shows that the May Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, indicating weak manufacturing demand, while the PMI rose slightly to 51.1, with new orders increasing and the employment index reaching a six - month high, but corporate profits are still affected by cost pressures [78]. - On the supply side, blast furnace hot metal production declined, and the weakening demand impacted steel mill profits. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the weekly output of rebar decreased by 70,000 tons [78]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 3.5% week - on - week, with building materials consumption down 5.9% and plate consumption down 2.0%. The inventory depletion speed has slowed down, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future [78]. - Due to market information disturbances in the raw material market and the profit - taking of short - position funds, the coal - coke futures prices rebounded significantly, driving up the center of gravity of finished product prices. Short - term operations are recommended [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and related indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased, and the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 4.1% year - on - year [7]. - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and from January to April, it increased by 4.7%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% [7]. - In April 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the producer price index decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [7]. - The China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks reached a substantial agreement, with both sides reducing tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend The SHIBOR rate decreased from 1.7450 on April 29, 2025, to 1.6200 on June 5, 2025, with a bullish outlook [20]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Money Quantity The SHIBOR rate decreased month - on - month, indicating a bullish trend [20]. 3.2.2 Macro - Money Price No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign No specific content provided. 3.2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao were 3,120 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, 734 yuan/ton, 1,340 yuan/ton, and 1,270 yuan/ton respectively. Their one - week, one - month, and one - year price changes varied [28]. 3.2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on June 5, 2025, was 131 yuan/ton, showing certain fluctuations in the recent period [31]. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (for Various Steel Products) No specific content provided. 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Futures - Spot) No specific content provided. 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.56% on June 6, 2025, slightly lower than 83.87% on May 30, 2025 [43]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Profits No specific content provided. 3.3.6 Electric Furnace Operation No specific content provided. 3.3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output No specific content provided. 3.3.8 Weekly Steel Output The total output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) on June 6, 2025, was 7.9162 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.024485822 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.001551365 [53]. 3.3.9 Weekly Rebar Output The weekly output of rebar on June 6, 2025, was 218,460 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [78]. 3.3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory The steel mill steel inventory on June 6, 2025, was 5.1777 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.10339752 and a week - on - week increase of 0.009376949 [60]. 3.3.11 Steel Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.13 Rebar Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.14 Building Materials Transactions No specific content provided. 3.3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price No specific content provided. 3.3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area No specific content provided. 3.3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions No specific content provided. 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - The manufacturing demand is weak, and the supply of steel products has decreased slightly. The demand for steel products has declined, and the inventory depletion speed has slowed down. - Due to the rebound of coal - coke futures prices, the center of gravity of finished product prices has moved up. Short - term operations are recommended.

Group 1 - The May PMI is reported at 49.5%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating slight improvement in the manufacturing sector [1] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and chemical products has expanded its year-on-year decline to 4.1%, while the PPI for chemical fiber manufacturing has decreased by 6.5%, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industry [1] - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector has slowed to 1.3%, whereas investment growth in the chemical fiber manufacturing sector has increased to 17.6% [1] Group 2 - Inventory data shows a slight month-on-month decrease in finished goods inventory for both chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, as well as chemical fiber manufacturing [1] - In terms of upstream raw material prices, the average WTI crude oil price has decreased by 19.55% year-on-year, while natural gas prices have increased by 43.57%, and the average price of thermal coal has decreased by 6.69%, indicating weak downstream demand and a clear trend of price competition in the industry [1] - The valuation of the basic chemical sector has seen an increase in PB compared to last month and the beginning of the year, while the PB for the petrochemical sector has risen month-on-month but remains below the level at the beginning of the year [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (code: 516220) tracks a sub-sector chemical index (code: 000813), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting representative listed companies in the chemical products and chemical fiber sectors from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect C (012731) and Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect A (012730) [1]