Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term, with a weak intraday trend and a volatile trend in the medium - term, mainly due to the prevailing bearish sentiment [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend Outlook - The short - term trend of crude oil 2602 is volatile, the medium - term is also volatile, and the intraday trend is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1] - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday [5] Core Logic - There are signs of compromise in Ukraine, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, and the US is mediating to end the war. The geopolitical premium is weakening, which weakens the upward momentum of international oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude oil varieties for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market [5] - The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of coal and crude oil continue to be weak. The IEA has lowered its crude oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, but the chemical industry is still dragged down by the supply side [1]. - The prices of chemical industry chain products follow the raw materials and decline. The supply pressure in the petrochemical industry remains high, and the prices of most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressures, and is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - The asphalt market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the futures price rises first and then falls, with an over - valued absolute price [9]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has insufficient price support, and the low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall [9][11]. - Most chemical products such as methanol, urea, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly, while PX and PTA may fluctuate within a certain range [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, geopolitical premiums fluctuate. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports strengthen the surplus expectation, but the IEA has lowered the surplus forecast for next year. The price of Russian oil is weakening, and the floating storage is rising. - **Outlook**: The surplus pattern continues, and the geopolitical expectation fluctuates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price rises first and then falls under geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, and the situation between the US and Venezuela heats up. The asphalt futures price rises but then falls due to the drag of black varieties. The pricing weight returns to Shandong spot. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price support of high - sulfur fuel oil is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weak. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall. - **Main Logic**: It follows the crude oil to fall, and the strengthening of natural gas boosts the demand expectation. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation and follows the crude oil to fluctuate [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The coastal unloading is lower than expected, and the inland supply and demand support, so methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory unexpectedly decreases, but it is still at a high level. The inland market is affected by the inflow of low - price port goods and weather disturbances. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The purchase of compound fertilizers may decrease, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as the suspension of the promotion of off - season storage and the possible decrease in compound fertilizer procurement. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operation [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The market pessimism spreads, and the existing device maintenance cannot reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. - **Main Logic**: The price continues to fall, and the current device maintenance cannot change the situation of supply exceeding demand. - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a low - level range [18][19]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The tight spot of PTA supports the negotiation of PX, but the upstream cost support is poor and lacks substantial benefits. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, and the PX price rises and then回调. The market has a strong expectation, but the upstream cost support is insufficient. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [260, 300] [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost rises and then falls, and the PTA price follows the upstream. The downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the spot circulation is tight. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to fluctuate and consolidate, and the processing fee runs within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02 [12]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news. - **Main Logic**: The recent import volume of pure benzene arrives at the port in large quantities, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. However, it is expected to improve marginally in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate [14][16]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news, with a slightly stronger trend. - **Main Logic**: The short - term trading is mainly around liquidity issues. The port inventory is depleted, and the tradable volume is not abundant. In Q1 2026, the pure benzene pattern improves, which supports styrene. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment improvement in early 2026 [17]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is divided, the PTA price is briefly supported, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the polyester staple fiber price. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to fluctuate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [21][22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream polyester raw material costs are divided. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures fall weakly, the PTA follows the cost to rise, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the overall valuation of polyester bottle chips. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the processing fee has enhanced support below [23]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The raw material and maintenance support are still limited, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the plastic's own fundamental support is limited. The downstream demand enters the off - season. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [29]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The coal price is still weak, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates downwards, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [30]. PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, but the downstream PP price is weak, dragging down PL through the decline in powder production. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: The production reduction scale is limited, and the price decline is cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the marginal enterprise production decreases, but the surplus expectation is not reversed. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The upstream has not reduced production, and the price is weakly cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and the upstream profit is close to the break - even point, but there is no production reduction yet. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33][34]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PP have different degrees of change [36]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX are provided [37]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, and MA - UR are provided [39]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report provides a framework for monitoring the basis and spreads of multiple chemical products such as methanol, urea, and styrene, but specific data is not fully presented. (3) Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline [281]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 11, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.00%, a 5 - day decline of 2.66%, a 1 - month decline of 3.14%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.67% [283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol futures market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The urea futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - The current view on rubber is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. - The PVC fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. - For PTA, the processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, and the inventory accumulation rate at the port may slow down. However, the medium - term supply situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [29]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 4.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.04%, at 439.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 38.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%, at 2382.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 20.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.67%, at 2986.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 411.92 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; gasoline inventories increased by 6.40 million barrels to 220.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%; diesel inventories increased by 2.50 million barrels to 116.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.20 million barrels to 21.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.26%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.38 million barrels to 42.57 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 27, in Lunan by 7.5, and in Inner Mongolia by 2.5. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 21 yuan, reported at 2074 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 31. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, reported at - 46 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 7 yuan, reported at 1638 yuan, the basis was + 42, and the 1 - 5 spread was + 3, reported at - 65 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and consolidated. The low inventory of exchange - traded RU warehouse receipts was a bullish factor. The bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than the previous week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than the previous week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Both domestic and export shipments slowed down. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 112.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.9%; the total social inventory of dark rubber was 73 tons, an increase of 2.4%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%; and the total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.48 (+ 0.98) tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current view is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 52 yuan, reported at 4276 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4300 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was 24 (+ 22) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 870 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 710 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the calcium carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 5265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the basis was 169 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB plant profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.42 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.93 tons, and the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75 tons, the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 tons, and the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 80 yuan, reported at 6834 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 US dollars, reported at 836 US dollars. The basis was - 5 yuan (- 44) according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 1 - 3 spread was 18 yuan (+ 10). The PX load in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and the Saudi Satorp plant overseas restarted. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 13.9 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of December, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. In terms of valuation cost, the PXN was 273 US dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 7) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 48 yuan, reported at 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan, reported at 4640 yuan. The basis was - 21 yuan (+ 4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (+ 10). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. The downstream load was 91.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The 300,000 - ton filament and 250,000 - ton staple fiber plants of Hengyi were under maintenance, and the 200,000 - ton long - stopped filament plant of Sanfangxiang restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 83%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 67%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 5 was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 18 yuan to 172 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 193 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 83 yuan, reported at 3599 yuan. The East China

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Although the geopolitical premium of oil has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a very limited scale, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, the oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. - After the positive factors of methanol are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals of methanol still have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand. The lower price has support, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - The PVC market has a poor supply - demand situation. Under the reality of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of over - supply. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The demand - side load is expected to remain high in the short term, but the processing fee has limited upside space. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to decline in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. The valuation is currently neutral - to - low, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.25%, at 443.70 yuan/barrel; related high - sulfur refined oil futures also declined. The geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC has increased production in a limited scale, and its supply has not increased significantly [7]. - **Strategic View**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 16.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%, at 2427.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 5.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%, at 3009.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.26 million barrels to 6.96 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 3.19 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 13.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 12.62%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.93 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.88% [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, in Lunan increased by 5.5, in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 13 yuan, at 2053 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 1, at - 76 [3]. - **Strategic View**: After the positive factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced, but there are still pressures in the future. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10, remained stable in Henan and Hubei. The 01 - contract increased by 2 yuan, at 1645 yuan, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 68 [6]. - **Strategic View**: The market is rising in shock, and the basis and inter - month spread have strengthened. The demand has improved in the short term, and the enterprise's pre - sales have increased significantly. The export is gradually gathering at the port, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply is expected to decline seasonally, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The price has support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded strongly, possibly due to the escalating signs of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict. The low inventory of RU on the exchange and the Thailand - Cambodia conflict are positive factors for the rubber price. The long - side believes that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit rubber production, the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The short - side believes that the macro - expectation is uncertain, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 tons, an increase of 2.1% [8][9][10][11]. - **Strategic View**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 39 yuan, at 4328 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4330 (- 30) yuan/ton, with a basis of 2 (+ 9) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of the calcium - carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [14]. - **Strategic View**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historically low level, but the supply - side maintenance is less, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand - side is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the over - supply pattern. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of pure benzene was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 138 yuan/ton; the basis was 161 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu port was 16.42 tons, an inventory build - up of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the operating rate of PS was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [17]. - **Strategic View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral - to - low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. The supply of pure benzene is still relatively abundant. The operating rate of styrene continues to increase, and the port inventory continues to build up significantly. The overall operating rate of three S in the demand - side is rising in shock. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6561 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.93 tons; the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategic View**: OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period, which exerts great pressure on the market. The overall inventory is being reduced at a high level, which will support the price. As the seasonal off - season approaches, the raw material inventory of agricultural films in the demand - side may peak, and the overall operating rate will decline in shock. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.75 tons; the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 1.29 tons; the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategic View**: The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventory will rebound, and the supply surplus may expand. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity on the supply - side, with relatively high pressure. The downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally on the demand - side. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6754 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged, at 832 US dollars. The basis was 39 yuan (+ 32), and the 1 - 3 spread was 8 yuan (+ 8). The operating rate in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate in Asia was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the overseas Saudi Satorp was restarted. The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. In November, South Korea exported 39 tons of PX to China, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5 tons. At the end of October, the inventory was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. The PXN was 269 US dollars (- 1), the South Korean PX - MX was 123 US dollars (+ 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 108 US dollars (- 5) [26]. - **Strategic View**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains at a high level, and there are many PTA maintenance operations downstream, with a relatively low overall operating rate center. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season downstream suppress the PTA processing fee. The low PTA operating rate makes it difficult to continuously reduce the PX inventory. It is expected that PX will have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 28 yuan, at 4616 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 25 yuan, at 4605 yuan. The basis was - 25 yuan (+ 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. Some devices were restarted or under maintenance, and some new devices were put into production. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 85%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 69%. On December 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.4 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan, to 154 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 5 yuan, to

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the crude oil 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, with an overall view of weak operation. This is due to the increasing bearish sentiment in the market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Time - cycle Analysis - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to be weak, with a view of weak operation [1][5]. Driving Logic - Geopolitical factor: The potential cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with the US mediating to end the war, has weakened the geopolitical premium and reduced the impetus for the rebound of international oil prices [5]. - Supply factor: Saudi Arabia has lowered the prices of its main crude oil varieties for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market [5]. - Market structure factor: The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]. - Market performance: On Tuesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices declined slightly, and it is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a weak pattern on Wednesday [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Energy and chemical industries continue to show weak and volatile trends, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists [8] - **Market News**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending December 5 decreased by 4.779 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels. The EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20,000 barrels to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 forecast by 50,000 barrels to an average of 13.53 million barrels per day [8] - **Main Logic**: Oil prices continue to decline within the range, and the volatile pattern persists due to continuous supply pressure and unclear geopolitical directions. The API data shows seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking and refined oil inventory build - up under high refinery operating rates. After the significant slowdown of OPEC + net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile [8] - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations fluctuate. The market is expected to remain volatile [8] Asphalt - **View**: Demand expectations deteriorate, and asphalt futures prices decline in a volatile manner [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels. The market sentiment was poor, and black varieties declined sharply. After the futures pricing returned to Shandong spot, the focus is on Shandong spot price changes. Shandong spot prices have fallen to around 2,900 yuan, and the high valuation of asphalt continues to be revised down. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the pricing weight of asphalt futures prices has returned to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the inventory build - up pressure of asphalt is still high. Currently, the valuation of asphalt relative to fuel oil is normal, but it is still high relative to crude oil, rebar, and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The near - term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, but a far - end agreement is still expected. The decline of crude oil from high levels led to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine - Israel conflict, are currently weak. Especially, Saudi Arabia recently announced that it will purchase Russian LNG, reducing the expected demand for Saudi fuel oil power generation next summer. In the off - season, refinery operating rates have dropped significantly, and refinery processing demand is weak. The US currently uses gas oil feedstock to replace residue feedstock, and it is the off - season for power generation in the Middle East. Fuel oil demand is still weak [10] - **Outlook**: The impact of geopolitical escalation on prices is destined to be short - term. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil [10] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectations of low - sulfur fuel oil, supporting the refined oil cracking spread and the oil - gas substitution effect. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes and is supported. However, low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to follow the changes of crude oil. On the fundamental side, the supply pressure of domestic refined oil has increased significantly, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will probably be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The unexpected maintenance of the Kuwait Azur refinery in the fourth quarter and the unstable operation of the Dangote refinery have led to an unexpected decline in low - sulfur fuel oil supply, promoting the recovery of its valuation [10][11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will follow the fluctuations of crude oil [11] PX - **View**: Cost support is weak, and general market sentiment drags down PX prices [12] - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline of international oil prices and the partial return of geopolitical premium due to the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to the collapse of cost support. PX has also been in a callback pattern recently. The general performance of commodity sentiment during the day has further deepened the decline of PX. Currently, there is no obvious change in the PX supply - demand pattern. The supply remains at a high level, and the polyester load on the demand side still remains at a high level, providing support for PX demand. The short - term PX profitability can still be maintained, and the price will fluctuate [12] - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. The profit support will increase, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated in the range of [260, 300] [12] PTA - **View**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, prices follow the decline, and the basis is relatively strong [12] - **Main Logic**: The collapse of upstream cost support, the decline of international oil prices in a volatile manner, and the general market sentiment of chemicals have led to a significant decline in the price of PTA following the decline of PX. With the large decline of the upstream, the PTA spot processing fee has been passively repaired. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively tight in the short term, and the basis is relatively strong. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate following the cost [12] - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, the processing fee will remain within a certain range, and the expansion space is limited. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02. Go long on the TA05 contract at the range of 4,600 - 4,700 yuan [12] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates between reality and expectations [12] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been fluctuating, and the long - short game is centered around the reality and expectations of the fundamentals. In reality, a large number of imported pure benzene has arrived at ports recently, and port inventories have rapidly accumulated. There may be storage capacity pressure in the middle and late months. Downstream phenol is clearing inventories at the end of the year, and profits are deteriorating. The production cut of caprolactam has been implemented, and the pressure on pure benzene is still being realized. In terms of expectations, the fundamentals of pure benzene may improve marginally from the first quarter of 2026. Imports will shrink, and some styrene plants will resume production. The inflection point of pure benzene inventory is approaching. Recently, pay attention to the US - Venezuela situation, the Central Economic Work Conference, the realization of port inventory build - up, and the liquidity problem of styrene [12][14] Styrene - **View**: The cancellation of maintenance and the news of inventory overflow in South Korea lead to a weak and volatile styrene market [15] - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the styrene futures market mainly trades around the liquidity problem. After the destocking of styrene port inventories, the available circulation volume is not abundant, and the short - covering in the paper market has brought a relatively strong market. The liquidity problem may continue in December, supporting the futures market. Recently, after the increase in styrene prices, the profits of downstream PS and ABS have been compressed, and both are currently in a slight loss state, but no production cut has been heard yet. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2026, the pattern of pure benzene will improve quarter - on - quarter, supporting styrene. Styrene will enter the seasonal inventory build - up period with a relatively high inventory starting point, but the current raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is low. Pay attention to the restocking at the beginning of the year due to the improvement of market sentiment [15] - **Outlook**: In 2026Q1, pure benzene pattern improvement supports styrene, but high starting inventory and seasonal accumulation need attention. Downstream low raw material inventory may bring early - year restocking [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: Pay attention to whether the new supply reduction on the supply side can be realized [16] - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has been in a downward trend in a volatile manner again today. The large arrival of goods at the main ports has led to continuous inventory build - up at ports, the spot circulation is abundant, coupled with the poor performance of upstream costs and the cold market sentiment, ethylene glycol has continuously hit new lows this year during the session. However, in the late session, due to the news of some new planned out - of - plan maintenance, the supply has become slightly loose, and some short - sellers have shifted their positions, resulting in a certain degree of stop - falling rebound in the price. In the short term, as the price has dropped to a low level, there is new supply reduction on the supply side, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored. In addition, as the delivery period approaches, the futures market will gradually limit positions. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be in a low - level volatile state in the short term, and pay attention to the changes of other plants in the future [16][17] - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the low - level range. Operate the EG reverse spread position in the range of [-75, -95] [19] Polyester Staple Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost of ethylene glycol, and the processing fee is under pressure [21] - **Main Logic**: The adjustment of upstream polyester raw material prices has led to a decline in the price of polyester staple fiber following the cost. The variables in the supply - demand pattern of polyester staple fiber itself are limited. The current price is relatively low, and there is still bottom support on the cost side in the short term. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the price of polyester staple fiber may be relatively resistant to decline in the near future [21][22] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate following the upstream, the processing fee is expected to be compressed, and you can try to go long on TA and short on PF with a light position [22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Yisheng lowers the basis, and the trading volume increases significantly [23] - **Main Logic**: The weak adjustment of upstream raw material prices has led to insufficient cost support for polyester bottle chips. Coupled with Yisheng's reduction of the basis during the session, the trading volume of the polyester bottle chip market has increased significantly during the day. It is expected that in the short term, the price will fluctuate following the upstream cost, and there is no obvious directional guidance [23] - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the fluctuations of raw materials, and the support below the processing fee will generally increase [24] Methanol - **View**: The expected high coastal unloading volume, and the short - term support of the inland supply - demand situation lead to a volatile and consolidating methanol market [26] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, methanol was generally weak. The mainstream intended price of methanol in northern Inner Mongolia was in the range of 1,960 - 2,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's average price. The inland market showed regional adjustments. In the North China region, the upstream supply was abundant, and there was still a demand for shipment, so enterprises actively reduced prices to promote sales. The downstream procurement in East China was relatively firm. On December 3, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons (-1.03%) compared with the previous data. After the decline of the port spot price, the flow of goods from Jiangsu to southern Shandong has gradually increased, and the near - term basis along the coast has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the near - term market is still restricted by factors such as high inventory, concentrated import arrivals, and the expected shutdown of Ningbo MTO [26] - **Outlook**: Viewed as volatile and consolidating in the short term [26][27] Urea - **View**: The new order transactions have improved, and the market fluctuates and consolidates [27] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the daily output of urea on the supply side remained at around 200,000 tons, at a relatively high level. On the demand side, there is support from the progress of off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export containerization. After the decline of the spot price, the new order transactions have improved, but at this time, the cost support of coal is insufficient, and the market is in a stalemate [27] - **Outlook**: The daily output on the fundamental supply side is still high, and the demand is moderately weak. Currently, the main factors to consider are the resistance of the现货 market to high prices and the lack of strong fundamental support in the market, which suppress the upward movement of the market. If there is no effective positive support in the near future, the price may still decline slightly after the stalemate. Therefore, it is believed that urea will fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants [27] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The decline of oil prices leads to a weak and volatile LLDPE market [31] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the LLDPE futures contract was weak and volatile. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. The weak coal price still drags down LLDPE. Second, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is still limited. The upstream and middle - stream enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will still suppress the upward space of the price. In the short term, the profit of coal - based production has been repaired, the support of maintenance is limited, and the production pressure is still large under the increasing production capacity. Third, the short - term trading volume of downstream enterprises is cautiously expected, and the sustainability of the restocking demand driven by the low absolute price is limited. Currently, the overall demand for LLDPE is gradually entering the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is still cautious [31] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term [31] PP - **View**: The short - term support of maintenance is still limited, and PP declines in a volatile manner [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PP futures contract declined in a volatile manner. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. Second, the weak coal price offsets the strength of propane, and the PDH profit is still under pressure in the short term. The valuation support of the gas - based production has increased, but the profit of coal - based refineries has been repaired under the weak coal price, and the overall increase in maintenance is still limited. Third, it is the off - season for PP downstream, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure [32] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term, and the focus is still on maintenance [32][34] PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and PL fluctuates [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PL futures contract fluctuated. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises was controllable, and the quotations remained

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness by observing export decline when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed down 10.30 yuan/barrel, a 2.26% decline, at 446.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 58.00 yuan/ton (2.34%) to 2418.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 52.00 yuan/ton (1.70%) to 3014.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a 1.91 - million - barrel draw in arrival inventory to 205.87 million barrels, a 2.03 - million - barrel build in gasoline commercial inventory to 87.33 million barrels, a 1.13 - million - barrel draw in diesel commercial inventory to 90.57 million barrels, and a 0.90 - million - barrel build in total refined oil commercial inventory to 177.90 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high. Currently, wait and see for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The Taicang price dropped by 7, the Lunan price remained stable, the Inner Mongolia price fell by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped by 23 yuan to 2066 yuan/ton, and the basis was +7. The 1 - 5 spread was +11, reported at - 77 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract dropped by 3 yuan to 1643 yuan, the basis was +37, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 4, reported at - 68 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly consolidating. The potential bullish factors include the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and low inventory warrants on the exchange. The bulls are optimistic about the seasonal increase and demand expectations, while the bears are concerned about weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the EUDR postponement. The tire factory operating rate was mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped by 64 yuan to 4367 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4360 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 7 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 287 (+8) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.9% (down 0.3%), with the calcium - carbide method at 82.7% (down 1%) and the ethylene method at 73.4% (up 1.1%). The downstream operating rate was 49.1% (down 0.5%), and both factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The non - integrated styrene profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton (up 15.5 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 67.29% (down 1.66%), and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.59 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.34% (up 0.10%), with mixed operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6557 yuan/ton (down 91 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis was 78 yuan/ton (strengthened by 41 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 84.12% (down 0.05%). The production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 44.8% (up 0.11%). The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (widened by 9 yuan/ton) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6192 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6270 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), and the basis was 69 yuan/ton (strengthened by 14 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 77.97% (up 0.8%). The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 53.7% (up 0.13%). The LL - PP spread was 365 yuan/ton (narrowed by 17 yuan/ton) [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract dropped by 62 yuan to 6780 yuan, the PX CFR price dropped by 9 dollars to 832 dollars, and the basis was 7 yuan (+26). The 1 - 3 spread was 0 yuan (+36). The Chinese and Asian operating rates both decreased slightly. Some overseas plants restarted, and some domestic PTA plants were under maintenance. The November PX exports from South Korea to China decreased year - on - year, and the inventory increased in October [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped by 50 yuan to 4644 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 20 yuan to 4630 yuan, and the basis was - 26 yuan (+4). The 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (+12). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged, with some domestic plant changes. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The social inventory decreased in November, and the processing fees increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped by 10 yuan to 3691 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 45 yuan to 3654 yuan, and the basis was - 11 yuan (-2). The 1 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (-8). The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, with some plant restarts and shutdowns. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.6 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪增强，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期俄乌冲突有望降温，美国从中斡旋试图尽快结束双方战事。地缘溢价减弱削弱国际 油价继续反弹动力。近期沙特将其主要原油品种对亚洲的售价下调至五年来最低水平，与此同时全 球原油库存不断累积，原油市场正处在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating upwards. The demand has improved due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish approach is currently adopted. It is recommended to buy on short - term dips and exit quickly. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested to be held [13]. - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply is high and demand is weak. With an oversupply situation, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, it is recommended to consider going long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.20 yuan/barrel, or 0.93%, to 457.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed increases. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decrease of 0.39 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 5, remained stable in Lunan, and decreased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 12 yuan to 2089 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [5]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high inventory and supply pressure, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 27 yuan to 1646 yuan, with a basis of + 34 [8]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating upwards. With improved supply - demand and support from policies and costs, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is consolidating weakly. The exchange's RU inventory is low, which is a potential bullish factor. Tire factory operating rates are mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber has increased [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish approach, buy on short - term dips and exit quickly, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4431 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene increased, while the price of caustic soda decreased. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy**: With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both increased. The supply - side upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [21]. - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 56 yuan to 6842 yuan. The load of PX and PTA decreased slightly. The inventory increased in October, and the valuation is at a neutral level [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, consider going long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4694 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan. The PTA load remained unchanged, and the downstream load increased slightly. The inventory decreased in November [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. Consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan to 3701 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan. The supply - side load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. Short on rallies in the medium term [29].