前言 聊起美国经济，最近最绕不开的就是"利率怎么走"和"矛盾怎么解"这两件事，这是资本的本质，也是美 国社会的根基之一。 很多人盯着美联储的降息信号，但很少有人把背后白宫、央行、市场的拧巴劲儿说透。 其实现在美国经济的核心问题，早就不是"降多少息"，而是"政策方向能不能对齐"。 尤其是在就业数据这个敏感点上，美联储和白宫的角力，已经成了解开所有问题的第一道锁。 就业数据博弈 美联储主席鲍威尔最近的表态很明确：短期内美联储的重心从通胀转向了就业，言下之意就是"只要就 业数据冷下来，降息就有理由"。 这个逻辑本身没问题，毕竟美联储的双重使命就是控通胀、稳就业，但坏就坏在，美国的就业数据早已 不是单纯的经济指标，而是成了特朗普的"政治成绩单"。 此前美国大幅下修就业数据，特朗普对此震怒，随即解雇劳工统计局局长，任命自己的亲信EGAnthony 接任。 这位新局长上任后便公开表态，认为"月度就业报告可改为季度发布"。 尽管目前月度报告尚未正式调整，但政策风向已明确：特朗普绝不容忍"疲软就业数据"影响竞选支持 率，其任期内的就业数据必须"呈现向好态势"。 这一局面暗藏关键矛盾：若就业数据被"修饰"，原本低迷的数据被调整 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S., with the number falling to 218,000, which is much lower than expected, leading to a sell-off in bonds and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1][3] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 3.659%, the 10-year yield increased by 4.2 basis points to 4.189%, and the 30-year yield went up by 1.1 basis points to 4.769% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market's weakness has shifted the risk balance regarding inflation, suggesting a moderately restrictive policy stance to address potential economic developments [4] Group 2 - In Europe, signs of a weakening labor market in Germany were noted, although consumer sentiment showed slight improvement, with the GfK consumer confidence index expected to rise from -23.5 in September to -22.3 in October [4] - The 10-year German bond yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 2.771%, while the 10-year Italian bond yield rose by 4.9 basis points to 3.642%, and the 10-year French bond yield went up by 3.3 basis points to 3.601% [4] - In the UK, the Chancellor faces pressure to address a £62 billion budget deficit, with speculation about potential tax increases as economic growth stagnated in July following a 0.3% GDP growth in Q2 [5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields also saw an upward trend, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.8 basis points to 0.934% and the 10-year yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.656% [5] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance successfully issued 399.4 billion yen in a 40-year bond auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.8, indicating strong market demand [5] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $229 billion in three bond types, including $100 billion in 4-week bills and $85 billion in 8-week bills, along with $44 billion in 7-year bonds [7]

Europe-listed stocks listed are expected to open in mixed territory on Thursday, as investors await the latest U.S. jobs data.Futures tied to the FTSE 100 were last seen trading 0.2% lower, while those linked to the German DAX index and France's CAC 40 were flat.On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department will release its latest weekly jobs data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the cooling labor market was overriding concerns about sticky inflation, prompting the central bank's first int ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80010 | 80225 | -215.00 | -0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 55 | 60 | -5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80030 | 80265 | -235.00 | -0.29% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 70 | 70 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79920 | 80130 | -210.00 | -0.26% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -35 | -35 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1799 | 1872 | -73.62 | -3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, restarting a rate-cutting cycle that had been paused for nine months, with expectations of two more cuts by the end of the year, although uncertainties remain due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1][2][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The median of the latest dot plot indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, an increase from the June dot plot [1] - The Federal Reserve has become more dovish due to deteriorating employment data and the delayed transmission of tariff-induced inflation to consumers, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be temporarily manageable [1][4] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of future rate cuts, indicating that the policy path remains uncertain and may change based on inflation and employment trends [4] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The transmission of Trump's tariffs to inflation has not yet fully materialized, primarily due to companies stockpiling imports earlier this year, which has buffered inflation's impact on consumer prices [7] - As inventory is depleted, the inflationary effects of tariffs are expected to rise, suggesting potential upward pressure on inflation in the future [7] Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite political pressure from Trump, the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to remain intact due to legal protections and the checks and balances inherent in the U.S. political system [6] - The decision-making process of the Federal Reserve is highly professionalized and relies on data, making it difficult for political preferences to dominate outcomes [6] Group 4: Economic Predictions and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has raised its inflation expectations and postponed the timeline for achieving inflation targets to 2028, indicating a belief that inflation may remain stubborn in the medium to long term [7] - If core PCE data significantly exceeds expectations in the coming months, the Federal Reserve may need to shift its focus back to inflation, potentially halting rate cuts [7] - The resumption of the rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve opens up more space for domestic monetary policy adjustments, although the impact is expected to be limited [8]

9月18日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至 4.00%-4.25%， 符合市场普遍预期。同时，这也是美联储2025年以来的首次降息。 据悉，长期疲软的就业数据是导致美联储再次启动降息的主要原因。 对此，鲍威尔表示，此次降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率。这意味着美联储并不 会进入持续性的降息周期。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，8月份非农就业人数仅增加2.2万，较7月份修正后的7.9万大幅下降。 市场此前预计，8月份就业岗位将增加7.5万个，远低于预期。8月失业率为4.3%升至近四年来新高。综 合修正后的数据，2024年4月至2025年3月美国就业增长数据下调91.1万个。 鲍威尔也在新闻发布会上暗示，美联储正在把政策重点从通胀转向就业。鲍威尔称，美联储的政策一直 侧重针对通胀，现在正朝着更中性的政策方向发展。美国劳动力市场正在降温，是时候在政策制定中考 虑到这一点了。 需要注意的是，美国在面临就业下行压力的同时，还因关税上涨面临通胀偏向上行的风险。而美联储的 目标是长期实现就业最大化和2%的通货膨胀率。 中信证券也在研报中分析称，点阵图指引年内还有50bp ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17, 2025, is generating significant market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points due to weak employment data and persistent inflation concerns [2][3][5] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [2][3] - The consumer price index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, with core CPI steady at 3.1%, indicating inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [3][5] Group 2 - Market expectations heavily favor a 25 basis point cut, with a 96% probability according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is only 4% [5][9] - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decision-making, with former President Trump advocating for significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy ahead of midterm elections, which could undermine the Fed's independence [5][7] - The potential for a 50 basis point cut could signal severe economic issues, leading to market panic, while a 25 basis point cut would be seen as a standard response, allowing for gradual market adjustments [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the positive market performance following the release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][8] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices all saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.36% [1] Group 2 - Tim Anderson noted that the market breadth was strong, with a ratio of advancing to declining stocks around 4 to 1 or 5 to 1, indicating a broad-based rally [2] - Almost all sectors showed performance, suggesting a healthy rotation within the market [4] - There is a concern that the market may be overextended, but many stocks that broke out continued to rise for several days [5][6] Group 3 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a decrease of 0.1%, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating potential stabilization in inflation concerns [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with market expectations suggesting a total of 75 basis points cut by the end of the year [9]

Core Insights - Wall Street is closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with expectations of persistent inflation pressures, but market reactions may be muted due to employment data influencing sentiment [1] - Major banks have adjusted their forecasts for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with Barclays economists predicting three cuts this year and two more in 2026, while inflation volatility could disrupt these expectations [2] - Despite ongoing inflation pressures, economic growth resilience has reduced short-term risk concerns, as indicated by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projecting a 3% annual growth rate for Q3 [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index is expected to experience a volatility range of approximately 0.7% post-CPI release, lower than the past year's average of 0.9% [1] - The most likely scenarios for August's core CPI indicate a month-over-month increase of 0.3% to 0.35%, with corresponding S&P 500 reactions ranging from a decline of 0.25% to a gain of 1.5% [2][4] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical 20 level, reflecting reduced market anxiety [3] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a focal point, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, and potential further cuts in Q4 depending on inflation data [1][2] - If inflation data shows significant hawkish signals, it could alter the policy expectations for October and December [1] - The interaction between CPI reports and employment data is crucial for determining the Fed's future policy trajectory [4]

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are expected to show higher inflation rates, with CPI projected at +2.9% and PPI at +3.3% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may still consider rate cuts despite rising inflation, as the labor market's deterioration poses a greater risk than short-term inflation increases [3][4] - The rising supply of government debt and persistent inflation are straining global bond demand, indicating potential challenges for fiscal policies [4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a brief market drop following the release of the CPI and PPI reports, which could lead to institutions offloading assets onto retail investors [1] - Job openings have decreased to 7.18 million, the lowest since 2021, which may influence the Fed's decision-making regarding rate cuts [3] - Gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, while silver has slipped below $41 per ounce, indicating volatility in precious metals markets [5]