Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - **Value at Front-End**: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - **Treasury Issuance**: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - **Tariff Impact**: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - **Oil Market Dynamics**: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - **Copper Tariffs**: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - **USD Outlook**: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - **EUR/USD Forecast**: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - **Market Reactions**: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of major foreign trade cities in China during the first half of the year, driven by effective export strategies and an optimized product structure, particularly in high-tech exports, indicating a positive trend in the transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade [2][11]. Group 1: Import and Export Data - The top ten cities in terms of import and export scale in the first half of the year are Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Suzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Guangzhou, Jinhua, Xiamen, and Qingdao, with five cities surpassing the national growth rate of 2.9% [1]. - Shenzhen's total import and export value reached 2.17 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.9% of the national total, maintaining its position as the "foreign trade capital" [6]. - Guangzhou's import and export total was 6050.5 billion yuan, marking a 15.5% year-on-year increase, while Suzhou's total was 1.3 trillion yuan, up 5.7% [7]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The strong performance of foreign trade cities is attributed to two key factors: effective "export grabbing" strategies by enterprises and the resilience of diverse international markets [2]. - The export structure of these cities has been continuously optimized, with a notable increase in high-tech product exports, reflecting a positive trend in the transformation of China's foreign trade structure [2][13]. Group 3: Monthly Trends and Specific City Performances - Dongguan's import and export value reached 7492.8 billion yuan, a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, reclaiming its position as the "fifth foreign trade city" [7][8]. - Jinhua's import and export total was 5086.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.1%, surpassing Xiamen and Qingdao [8]. - Monthly growth trends show that Dongguan's exports of toys and high-tech products have significantly contributed to its performance, with high-tech product exports increasing by 23.4% [8]. Group 4: Import Trends and Challenges - Despite the strong export performance, many cities experienced a decline in import data, with Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao showing negative growth rates [9]. - The decline in imports is attributed to various factors, including falling international commodity prices and uneven domestic investment recovery, which has suppressed demand for intermediate and capital goods [9]. Group 5: Structural Transformation and Market Diversification - The export structure is rapidly transforming, with a shift from low-value products to high-tech and high-value products, indicating an improvement in China's manufacturing technology and industry position [13]. - Emerging markets are becoming significant sources of structural growth, with cities like Dongguan and Suzhou increasing their trade with ASEAN and other regions [14][15].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, marking a new high for the year and maintaining above 3500 points for seven consecutive trading days [1][2] - Foreign institutions express optimism about the Chinese market, citing attractive stock valuations, improving fundamentals, stabilization in the real estate market, and resilient consumer behavior as factors for potential further gains [1][4] - The trading volume in the market remains active, with a peak of 1.71 trillion yuan in early July, the highest in nearly four months, and an average daily trading volume of 1.55 trillion yuan for the week [2][6] Group 2 - Several foreign investment firms, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts for key indices, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 Index, indicating about a 10% upside potential [6] - The improvement in corporate fundamentals is highlighted, with increased dividend payouts, stock buybacks, and stricter debt management practices contributing to a more resilient market environment [4][9] - The technology sector is identified as a key area for growth, with expectations that advancements in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and robotics will drive further momentum [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing opportunities for Chinese businesses in Central Asia, particularly in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as they seek to expand into emerging markets amid geopolitical tensions and saturation in Southeast Asia [2][4][24]. Group 1: Market Growth and Opportunities - The e-commerce market in Kazakhstan is projected to reach 60.13 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [3]. - Uzbekistan's e-commerce market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 122% from 2021 to 2024, with future growth anticipated to exceed 40% [3][4]. - The number of Chinese nationals in Uzbekistan has increased from over 30,000 in 2018 to approximately 200,000, indicating a significant rise in business activities [2]. Group 2: Economic and Demographic Insights - Kazakhstan's GDP per capita is projected to grow from 11,486 USD in 2023 to 13,117 USD in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 14.20% [12]. - Uzbekistan's GDP increased from 86.14 billion USD in 2017 to 103.01 billion USD in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 5.7%-6% [24]. - Uzbekistan has the highest birth rate in Central Asia, contributing to a growing demand for consumer goods, particularly in the mother and baby product categories [29]. Group 3: E-commerce Landscape - The Central Asian e-commerce market is expected to reach 14.7 billion USD in 2024, comparable to Saudi Arabia's e-commerce market size [32]. - Local e-commerce platforms like Kaspi and Uzum dominate the market, with Uzum having over 23 million registered users [29][34]. - Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Taobao and Temu are expanding their presence in Kazakhstan, leveraging local logistics and consumer preferences [14][37]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Preferences - Kazakh consumers exhibit a tendency towards forward and installment purchasing, with a notable lack of savings among many [17]. - There is a growing demand for diverse and high-quality products, with local consumers increasingly valuing brand recognition and quality assurance [19][28]. - Social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok are becoming popular for marketing and e-commerce, with innovative sales strategies emerging [19]. Group 5: Challenges and Strategic Considerations - The e-commerce market in Central Asia requires brands to adapt to local consumer needs and cultural differences, emphasizing the importance of product quality and service [32][34]. - The logistics landscape is evolving, with local platforms requiring sellers to establish local companies for smoother operations [34][37]. - The economic structures and payment systems vary significantly between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, necessitating tailored approaches for each market [38][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the continuous depreciation of the US dollar will reshape the premium relationship between A-shares and H-shares, creating differentiated investment opportunities for investors [1] - UBS predicts that a 10% decline in the DXY dollar index could lead to a 9% excess return for emerging markets, benefiting A-shares as part of this market [1][5] - The report indicates that the AH premium has a high positive correlation of 0.83 with the dollar index over the past 15 years, suggesting that H-shares may outperform A-shares in a weak dollar environment [1][13][15] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the US dollar will continue to weaken until 2025, citing structural reasons such as the expansion of US external debt from 9% of GDP in 2005 to 88% currently [2] - The report highlights that the phenomenon of "overholding" the dollar, where the US accounts for only 16% of global trade but the dollar constitutes 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, could lead to significant dollar sell-offs [2] - The report also notes that the historical data shows that when the RMB appreciates against the dollar, the CSI 300 index typically rises, providing support for A-shares in a weak dollar environment [9] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the weak dollar is a positive factor for global stock markets, with emerging markets likely being the biggest winners [5] - It is noted that foreign investors held 2.97 trillion RMB in A-shares as of the end of Q1 2025, accounting for only 3.4% of the total market capitalization [10] - Industries with high exposure to dollar-denominated debt, such as home appliances, transportation, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, are expected to benefit more from the dollar's weakness [12] Group 4 - The report indicates that the AH premium may remain at mid-term low levels in the second half of 2025 unless there is a significant liquidity improvement in the A-share market [18] - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds reached 684.2 billion RMB, primarily flowing into Chinese internet giants, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, marking a 101% year-on-year increase [16] - The report suggests that H-shares may offer better investment opportunities in a weak dollar and globally loose liquidity environment, particularly in sectors benefiting from southbound fund inflows [18]

Group 1 - The South African FTSE/JSE Africa Leading 40 Index closed down 0.40% at 89,047.54 points, experiencing recent high volatility with a peak of 89,623.71 points on July 7 and 90,419.24 points on July 10, marking an intraday historical high [1] - The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index rose by 0.43% to 127,000 points, continuously setting closing historical highs since July 7, achieving the longest streak of new highs since March 2024, resulting in a 27% cumulative return over the past 52 weeks, double the increase of the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East, and Africa Index during the same period [1] - Since mid-2020, the Nigerian stock index has consistently risen from the 20,000-point level [1] - The Mauritius SEMDEX Index fell by 0.05%, while the Nairobi All-Share Index in Kenya decreased by 0.86% [1]

Group 1 - Investors bought emerging market stocks and bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week, marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows into such ETFs [1] - As of the week ending July 11, the total inflow into U.S.-listed emerging market ETFs focused on developing countries and specific nations was $830.7 million, a 66% decrease from the previous week’s inflow of $2.46 billion [1] - Year-to-date, the total inflow into these ETFs has reached $13.7 billion [1]

7月14日，国新办就2025年上半年进出口情况举行新闻发布会。海关总署副署长王令浚介绍，面对单边 主义、保护主义，我们不断扩大"朋友圈"，拉紧经贸合作纽带，大力提振企业信心，共同应对外部环境 的急剧变化。上半年，我国对190多个国家和地区进出口实现增长，贸易规模超过500亿元的伙伴数量达 到61个，比去年同期增加了5个。在对欧盟、日本、英国等传统市场实现增长的同时，新兴市场贡献了 更多的增量，上半年对非洲进出口1.18万亿元，增长14.4%，对中亚进出口3572亿元，增长13.8%。"爬 坡过坎，关键是提振信心"。最新一期中国海关贸易景气调查结果显示，出口企业和进口企业信心都连 续两个月回升。 ...

7月10日—12日，2025全球跨境电商交易博览会将在杭州大会展中心举行。本届博览会由浙江省商 务厅、杭州市人民政府支持，杭州市商务局发起，扩展集团、深圳市海圈科技有限公司、杭州日报、都 市快报、跨境百人会共同组织。这是中国（杭州）跨境电商综合试验区成立十周年的重要献礼，也是杭 州推动跨境电商高质量发展行动计划的重要实践。 直播出海专区联合8家头部MCN机构，分享欧美、东南亚市场的爆品孵化方法论。知识论坛专区设 置4大论坛、20个专场，邀请上百位行业嘉宾分享实战经验。政府服务专区首创"多位一体"政务咨询模 式，为企业提供关务、税务等一站式服务。"外贸优品 科技出海"专区则整合各类资源，助力企业拓展 海外市场。 据悉，展会期间将举办多场高规格论坛活动。6号馆将举行开幕式及国际供应链对接会；3号馆设有 跨境卖家增长论坛和全球平台大讲堂，帮助卖家实现从0到1的突破和从1到100的增长；4号馆举办产业 带出海论坛，聚焦电子汽配、家居户外等热门品类。 作为全国跨境展览会的风向标，本届博览会不仅展示杭州跨境电商发展的丰硕成果，更为中国企业 开拓海外市场搭建了重要平台。从产业带到人才，从直播到合规服务，这里将汇聚全球资源， ...

Core Insights - Investors have continued to pour funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in emerging market stocks and bonds, marking the sixth consecutive week of inflows [1] - For the week ending July 3, the total inflow into U.S.-listed emerging market ETFs reached $2.46 billion, down from $3.35 billion the previous week [1] - Year-to-date, the total inflow into these ETFs has reached $12.9 billion [1]